Wigan v Saints
Kicking off perhaps the best looking round of fixtures this year is the competition’s most illustrious.  Two one-sided encounters earlier this season undermine expectations of this being the competitive derby we’re all used to.  Wigan fans won’t need reminding that they’ve only managed one win against Saints since 1066 and there won’t be too many anticipating a repeat of last year’s pain-relieving win.   Saints’ unbeaten run has to come to an end at some point and with this game and a semi-final next week you’d be inclined to think that two hard back-to-back games will contain at least one brick wall.  And it’s brick wall stuff that Wigan will probably have to come up with to create that juddering halt.  When the home side have performed well this year it’s been when they tightened their defence and upped its physical intensity.  If Wigan fail to meet Saints in that collision they won’t get on top and that’s just to start.  From there it’s a case of converting chances and more importantly maintaining that intensity for the duration of the game, which they have been able to do against Leeds. All too often against Saints it’s been a case of slumber time in the opening quarter of the game and before they’ve known it, they’re two scores down, shoulders slouched, individual running taking precedence over gameplans and infectious bouts of dropsy.  There is quality in the Wigan line-up (admittedly nowhere near as much as the top two) and I keep referring to one man who carries at lot of Wigan’s hopes.  This game is no different.  Gareth Hock continues to propel Wigan towards the playoffs and he must rank as one of the most influential players in this competition.  If he fires he doesn’t just give his side impetus, he gives them a destructive game that produces breaks or second phase possession.  Without moving the defence about Wigan’s attack becomes pedestrian, neutralising any zip that Barrett can muster on the ball.  There are a lot of ifs in the mix for this tussle.  Too many?  Probably.  There are also lots of reasons why Noble must have his men fired up for this too; the chance to put a big spanner in their rivals trophy hopes, put them in pole position for fourth, possibly reigniting the chase for third and more importantly giving them the self-belief they’ll need to avoid popping out during their first appearance at the postseason plate.  For me though, Wigan remaining patchy and there’s a chance that Saints can push through these two games, not because of their own form but the opposition’s lack of.  Has defeat strengthened Wigan’s focus for this one or has it removed what little confidence they might have picked up from beating Leeds?  You suspect that being at home should be enough to fire up Wigan even if Saints are their daddies they know they can come out against anyone there.  Nothing to lose Wigan, except pride.  Saints by 10.

Catalans Dragons v Leeds
Who isn’t angry about the game of the round not being on SKY?  Appalling.  This clash reminds me of Super League I when the Bulls hosted Wigan.  Do you remember the feeling watching that game?  That victory, more than the one over eventual champions, Saints, signalled the arrival of the Bulls as a true force in world rugby, both codes.  Amazingly, in three years, Catalans are doing the same and giving expansionists multiple orgasms.  A Dragons victory on Saturday really cranks that up, titillating the futurists as well as delivering what non-Leeds supporters will predictably enjoy.  At the same time, Mick Potter’s departure to Saints has those same people worrying for a potential, that hopefully isn’t peaking for just this season.  Whenever I have seen the Dragons face one of the considered titans of the competition their successes have been when the opposition has lost their fluidity.  Leeds go to Perpignan with fans confused about their fluidity which allows you to drift towards the Dragons but I am not so sure.  Doubting Catalans is common for me (tipped to win in only 50% of their matches) but we are talking about a Leeds side which may arrive in its recent meandering mental state or one responding to Brian McClennan’s coaching.  The champions need the latter for the next two games or that early season invincibility will be nothing more than a longer version of the Super League VIII Saints.  At some point during the remaining few months Leeds have to return to their brilliant early season form, there’s no way that a side which has played as good as they have can slowly become dormant.  Is what’s happening similar to the tail off that Saints had last year after their great start?  Are Leeds starting to run out of gas?  I don’t think that’s the case, more just that drop in form you get at some point during the year.  Catalans might be a big side capable of getting on top of you and Leeds forwards are not as penetrating as you might think, Peacock the obvious exception, and you need that punch in the middle of the park against the Dragons to get your quick play-the-balls and push them on the back foot.  It’s in this mode that other teams have had success, forcing Catalans to play the boundaries of the rules.  Leeds have that speed in their play and whilst they can be devastating with half a chance, over in France you need to be in the game for the full eighty minutes.  This is a very difficult match to call.  How much impact is Adam Mogg’s absence going to play?  Do you go with Catalans’ form and home advantage or take a chance on the double-chasing champions having enough class to collect enough tries as their defence holds firm?  Dragons by 2.

Huddersfield v Warrington
Five wins from six has paper talk putting James Lowes in the driving seat for that vacant Wolves job, which was bound to happen at some point before the end of the season.  A closer look at those results reveals that most of those wins were in games that Wire should have won anyway.  Harlequins RL away was the trickiest but three games were at home, against slumping Wakefield, slumping Rovers and a Bulls side that had just lost at Huddersfield.  There was a last ditch win in a scrappy affair at the KC in there too and Lowes has done well to steady things, building confidence at the same time.  I’m sure he’ll be gaining confidence himself with each win and this is a tricky battle and the kind that he can’t afford to lose if he wants to secure that job.  My thoughts on him and the Warrington vacancy haven’t changed because this is a prime time job, handling a big wage bill and so requires a man with good first grade experience.  There’s no point ploughing that argument about giving people an opportunity because he’s got that and with a home game against Leeds after the cup semi, followed by a trip to Saints we could just as easily be dismissing his chances if he’s on the back of three defeats in a row.  The first of those three defeats could come this weekend against a Giants side that is tepid when facing the big men yet very competitive amongst the scavengers.  At the moment the Wolves are hovering just above that pit of coyotes giving this trip to the Galpharm added importance by the fact that the Wolves will go six points clear of seventh if they win, virtually assuring them of a finals appearance.  A Giants win, on the other hand, drags the Wolves back into a fight for fifth with a threat of still being able to lose out on sixth.  In their last home game the Giants dragged the Bulls back down with a one point win and you fancy that they are capable of doing that with the Wolves who have had problems with their Yorkshire trips this year, with their four wins being by a combined total of eights points (two two point wins, a win by three and a one point triumph).  Admittedly one of those victories was over the Giants, who they’ve beaten twice already this year.  Those Giants sides did not have the same kind of mindset and although their improvement probably isn’t substantial enough to be too strong for Warrington I expect the home team to be difficult to beat there.  If the visitors are to win this game, it has to be another one of those scraping results and I’m not sure the Giants will be compliant in this.  At the Galpharm you always expect your hosts to come back at you at some point, which is something that’s happened on Warrington’s travels all year and with confidence slowly building I think that Wire’s confidence is more vulnerable to collapsing than it is building towards a Grand Final run, at the moment.  Giants by 2.

Bradford v Wakefield
In a round of fifty-fifty matches where four of the six visiting teams are as strong, if not stronger than the home ones, Odsal hosts what could be a fairly timid affair as the Kear factor is kept in the box for another week at least.  Hold this game a month ago and this is a contender for game of the round.  Now though, Wakefield’s capitulation from a strong fourth place to being in danger of falling out of playoff contention altogether indicates a welcome home win for the Bulls.  This season just hasn’t started for Steve McNamara’s men, every time they appear to get a couple of momentum wins under the belt, an unexpected defeat turns up or Leeds.  Here’s one of those games that can stimulate a mini-revival with a trip to Harlequins RL after semi-final weekend before their next game…at Leeds.  This stop-start season has a light run-in as both Hull sides visit Odsal with The Jungle the venue for the Bulls final regular season game.  Rollercoaster ride without the high points it has been and it’s also been enough to keep Steve McNamara in his job and if Leeds continue to falter you never know about that Leeds game, the Bulls may score a try.  The flip side of this game is that Wakefield really need to get hold of this ball and do something with it before next week’s kick off but I’m not expecting much, you’re not expecting much and their fans probably just want to get to that semi now so that they can get some league form again.  I do fear for Wakefield that this recent semi-final slump has destroyed the brilliant work the whole side had put into their first half of the season and it would be a shame for those players if that old skool mentality of “We’re in the cup so Metallica!” has been the reason for this downturn.  It’s a key match in the context of Wakefield and the Bulls making the finals series with that Bulls run-in looking a lot easier than Wakey’s final four, which is the hardest in the competition (Saints, Wigan, Catalans and Leeds).  Maybe John Kear did look at that fixture list and realise that whatever he does in the lead up to the semi, the rest is future history.  Bulls by 12.

Harlequins RL v Castleford
Fear not Harlequins RL fans, this is a guaranteed win, or rather it was until the Fisticuffs Four got themselves in hot water in France.  Now I’m not so sure. Having seen both teams ship female darts scores against Saints I must mention how disappointing the defences were even against an in-form side.  Of those two teams Castleford get some benefit from being away from home, still they were truly appalling in defence, making Saints look superhuman, including Adey Gardner.  It’s sad to say that neither of these sides have had an improvement in the second half of the season.  Harlequins RL started off with six wins in their first ten games, only to manage just two in the next eleven, a poor return no matter what the injury situation is.  If we look closer at those earlier victories we can see Harlequins RL were an effective, competitive team until arguably, the trip to Knowsley Road.  That loss wasn’t a surprise but it appears to have signalled changes in directions for its participants, Saints haven’t lost since that game and Harlequins RL have won just two.  It seems the early season predictions of a lowly placing for both might come true, however I think that the fans of both teams can take credit for being the best group of fans in the league, in terms of their vocal application.  It may be a meaningless award to many but for true fans they’ve both been a breath of fresh air in an increasingly biased and bitter supporting spectrum.  Harlequins RL by 4.

Hull v Hull KR
Just how typical of Hull’s luck is the timing of this fixture?  Last week, Agar’s men turned in the kind of performance that can be underrated because of the opposition’s failings and, relying too much on Wakefield’s showing chips away too much at the quality Hull turned out.  Hull are very much a work-in-progress with the Wakefield game being a match-up that gave Agar a chance to measure his side against an outfit of similar competitive capability.  At times I thought that Hull showed some traditional British attacking RL which is something that you could probably say hasn’t been shown by them before.  I don’t mean that this was a historic or most effective display, I mean the thought to keep the ball alive was a first thought instead of what I’ve always felt was a more conservative, ball control approach.  This derby would have been in Agar’s mind and a convincing win at Belle Vue was a five star achievement, given their season so far.  Agar would have seen, in front of him this week, a team on a slide after consecutive defeats, anticipating that Rovers’ form would shift the points spread in Hull’s favour.  Typical of Hull’s luck that Rovers suddenly pull a terrific win over contenders, Wigan.  Despite the gap that needs to be made up to the playoffs, the Bulls-Wildcats game means two points from this can give them a rope bridge to the six.  Realistically though, a win does nothing more than thwart their rivals’ finals ambitions, which suggests that Hull might not be as competitive especially with the semi-final looming next week.  Suggesting that I think is wrong because Agar has been looking for form from his side, which is a contrast to the perception you get of Wakefield.  Agar appears to have stronger control over his side’s focus than Kear at the moment but Rovers have been a team his side has found ways to lose against and that win against Wigan has given Morgan the lift his team needed.  That win, Rovers’ much stronger kicking game and the visitors recent record against Hull makes me favour them.  I don’t have any preferences in this east coast title bout but with an eye on the Challenge Cup I hope that Hull consolidate that form and manufacture more in case they do win next week so that the final isn’t the washout many are already thinking it will be.  It’s a fascinating contest and it is one of those games where you apply more weight to the psychology of the head-to-head because neither team is operating at a high technical level.  This, to me, means you can’t place too much emphasis on either team’s ability because they don’t have enough consistency for you to make a strong case for one side over the over.  Inevitably this has allowed me to type a stream of consciousness about how important the intellectual strength of the players is to the result.  Eventually that absence of reliable form pushes me back to the factors in Rovers favour rather than this possibly simmering Hull revival.  Promises to be a mini-epic.  Rovers by 2.

Last week’s predictions;

Leeds by 12 (won by 38 )
Saints by 50 (won by 56)
Warrington by 8 (won by 4)
Catalans by 12 (won by 6)
Wildcats by 6 (lost by 8 )
Wigan by 6 (lost by 17)

Well despite my continual failure to grab a hold on any Rovers games consistency has arrived in the form of my preditions.  Another four from six making the overall record of 79-48 (62% still lol).

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Leeds v Huddersfield
Great news for Giants fans following the victory over Hull KR, Steve Folkes is on the shortlist for the vacant coaching position.  Bad news is that Nathan Brown and Royce Simmons are too.  We’ll trust in the Giants management to make the right appointment for their club and for this competition.  Right now though it’s take-on-the-Champions time for the caretaker coaches.  Caretakers who have done more than just change light bulbs, they’ve re-wired a few things as well.  Posting a couple of wins on the way, the Giants are in better form than Leeds over the past month.  Strangely there are murmurings amongst Leeds fans about how they’ve slipped from being in the driving seat with lots of leg room, to riding pillion with Saints.  Why is that?  If you surf the Leeds forum I’m sure you’ll find criticism varies but sometimes form just goes away and you don’t know why.  Yes, it can be attributable to personnel changes, injuries and, amazingly, even improvements in the opposition, but there are times when as a fan you just need to be realistic and accept that, in sport, teams can go through a dip.  Too much tweaking and you miss your consistency.  Barring their trip to Saints the Giants have been up for their games since Sharp left and you are left wondering if they can continue that against a team that is struggling to reach their own high standards.  I think that trip to Saints though was a real reflection upon the Giants this year, great in parts but, on the whole, messy.  I wouldn’t shy away from this being a reasonable test for Leeds but it is the Giants and they can get a bit awestruck with all that metropolis glitter, signed photographs and those manicured eyebrows.  Leeds by 12.

Saints v Castleford
Castleford remain the last side to beat Saints, some ten league games ago and it’s unlikely that they’ll be doing a double.  In the RL world it’s inevitable that some pea-brain halfwit will misconstrue overwhelming evidence for arrogance.  Saints by 50.

Warrington v Bradford
This week’s game of the round features a real humdinger, fifth at home to sixth with a four point gap on offer for the Wolves if they win.  Who would have thought a month ago that Warrington would be on the up, having seen off two playoff contenders with a third strolling into town, on an injured horse, short on bullets and with a Waco Kid hand?  Four league wins in ten is not gunslinger form, for the Bulls, compared to four in five for James Lowes posse so it’s only the Bulls pedigree that stops this game from being a foregone conclusion.  How much confidence can we place in a pedigree that has lost six of their last ten league games?  Well, four of those losses have been to the top three teams and the other two away from home, albeit against sides for whom playoff action is reliant upon a dazzling run of form.  At Odsal it’s usually the case that the Bulls pack can overpower even the best on their day and there’s a similar truth at the HJ where Warrington’s offensive firepower creates an always competitive team.  When faced with a big pack last week the Wolves came up with eight tries amongst their threequarters and you expect that Lowes’s side will continue to shift the ball wide and exploit what has always been this year, a disjointed Bulls side.  Wolves by 8.

Catalans Dragons v Harlequins RL
Twice this year I’ve backed Harlequins RL against Catalans and twice the Dragons have stolen the points, using their magic to lift themselves above McDermott’s hardworking side.  Being in Perpignan it’s unlikely that they’ll be getting anyone’s backing this week, reality not discrimination.  I say discrimination because has anyone else noticed the increasingly big chip on some Harlequins RL fans’ shoulders?  I say some because it’s not something that I’d ever encountered on my trips down there, quite the opposite in fact, the hospitality of their fans is second to none in this league, which is why this year has been a surprise.  After putting up with the usual gripes from non-expansionists I suppose it’s realistic to expect that some Harlequins RL will be a bit embittered about the attitude of other RL fans to their club, however I’m not sure that excuses this worrying trend of faux siege mentality.  If Harlequins RL fans want to be as lacking in knowledge as the rest of the RL world they can listen to any SKY broadcast for the latest set of home fans to be caught castrating themselves over a line ball.  Speaking of fans caught berating the referee for not calling passes the way they see them, did anyone hear the Hull fans earlier in the year when they yelled “forward” for a dummied pass?  Brilliant stuff and all home fans shout “forward”, except in Perpignan.  Catalans by 12.

Wakefield v Hull
A dress rehearsal for an upcoming Challenge Cup semi-final usually results in a dry, cautious affair with teams unwilling to go through their playbook for fear of giving too much away.  Did Wakefield have one eye on that game when they shipped sixty at Warrington?  As much as Kear might say they didn’t, I don’t imagine he’ll be overly concerned about that with his side through to the semi-final. Here though, we have a different fixture.  It’s at home, it’s against a side that Wakefield should be capable of beating and is one of those games that they would have been looking at as a key win in the push for playoff action.  With the two teams directly above them facing off, this isn’t a game that Kear can afford to play with, which presents no problems for Agar.  After slight improvements from the Sharp days, Agar is still finding his feet with Hull and with his side out of the playoff running, every game is a chance for him to tinker with the pressure off.  Sadly for Agar he’s not had the same kind of fortunate run with opponents, facing top-six teams in all but one of his league fixtures, which he did win.  I remember attending this kind of match in winter rugby when your side was ticking over with nothing to do but wait for an important cup game and although those kind of circumstances are few and far between nowadays, thanks to professionalism, you can’t help but feel this will be a scrappy game but it’s a scrappy game that the home side can’t really afford to play around with.  Wildcats by 6.

Hull KR v Wigan
If you’d checked the analysis of how teams have performed against the predictions then you’ll already know that Hull KR are one of those teams that has let me down on the predictions front, perfectly exemplified by last week’s failure at The Jungle.  That loss to Castleford was Rovers fifth league defeat in a row and placed them on the furthest edge of the playoff picture.  Contrasting that poor form, Wigan gave their local rivals a hand by registering yet another league win over Leeds, making it five from six in the league after dropping three league games in a row before that.  Both these teams started the season relatively well until they went head-to-head in round 8.  Since that game, when Wigan won, Rovers have won just three out of twelve games.  Is Justininho feeling the pressure?  Is Michael Dobson?  Is Cabman exploding with internal rage at his team’s inability to back him up on anything outside of a local derby?  Wigan won’t care.  They’re heading upwards, chasing the top three with a game in hand and plenty of home games to come and this represents a difficult but far from impossible away game.  Can Noble instil the same kind of intensity in his side this week because they will need that over in Hull.  Had this been last week’s game I would have been edging towards Rovers but having looked at how often they’ve failed my predictions and dropped games that they should have won I’m not so sure.  A similar kind of principle applies to Wigan, who’ve been up and down most of the season but they have come away with results when they haven’t necessarily been hitting good form.  There’s more class in the Wigan side, more quality and a doggedness that has caused some greater teams to succumb.  My head says that Rovers compete well with Wigan but it also says that Rovers have played themselves out of the playoffs and I don’t think this is a fixture where they can just plug in and play, especially if Stuart Fielden continues his five minute long Golden Boot winning form.  Wigan by 6. 

Last week’s predictions:

Wigan by 2 (won by 1)
Saints by 8 (won by 54)
Rovers by 4 (lost by 8 )
Bulls by 6 (lost by 1)
Dragons by 6 (won by 12)
Wolves by 6 (won by 26)

Typical four from six week, lifting the overall won-loss ratio to 75-46 (62%).

Into the last straight for the year now with just seven games remaining and I thought I’d take a look at a few things today surrounding the previews and predictions just to see how things have shaped out and how some teams have performed alongside those.  Primarily the previews are there to preview the games and I put the predictions in according to how I see the games developing but mainly it’s an opportunity to have something to read prior to the weekend that isn’t strictly forum based.

If the results had gone exactly the way that I’ve predicted this would be what the current league table would like (there are a couple of points missing from that table because I didn’t preview the opening fixture of the season, so I’ve added an additional two points to Leeds as that’s who would have got my prediction).  A few interesting choices there with the two most notable differences being the positions of Harlequins and Catalans who I’ve underestimated during the course of the year.  Out of twenty rounds of games a Harlequins win has been predicted on just four occasions.  For those that are interested those four win predictions have been against Catalans twice (Easter bank holiday fixture and Millennium Magic), Hull (Round 14) and their most recent game against Warrington.  As you’ve may have noticed they lost three of those games.

* includes two points for opening fixture of season, due to non-prediction.

How does your team shape up?  Have any of the previews been reliable?  Well this latest round did include the first time that Leeds weren’t backed to win.  Over the course every single previous round Leeds had been tipped for the win.  Which teams have the best records on and which predictions are usually no basis for you to place bets on?

How often have your team been backed to win?

These numbers are percentages and understandably Leeds and Saints have been backed in 95% and 80% of the matches that they’ve played in.  Probably the biggest surprises on the backing front are the previously mentioned lack of backing for Catalans and Harlequins, who have overcome such a mystical penalty by winning games.  Looking down the list, it’s a top five heavy prediction listing which helps identify that there must have been several upset results, during the course of the season i.e. traditional non-top 6 teams beating the more firmly-established playoff campaigners.

How often has your team been backed to win correctly?

Following on from backing a team, just how often has that backing been right with your team.  When backed on XIII Oceans, how sure can you be that your team will win?  Some notable differences with this, as Catalans have a high rate which is due to their great form whereas Leeds fall down a few spots, mainly because they’ve been backed every week.   

How often has your team been tipped to lose?

No surprises here with Castleford being tipped to lose 85% of the time and it just goes to show that Harlequins RL fans aren’t just suffering from their normal paranoia when they proclaim that they aren’t given that much of a chance.

When tipped to lose, just how likely are they to lose?

Ignoring the Leeds position because that’s based on one prediction to lose, there’s a fairly high success rate in predicting losses for Hull and the Bulls so not a good sign for either if a loss is anticipated.  Fortunately for Hull fans there’s no previews of the Challenge Cup games.  Catalans are clearly the best side at overcoming predictions on here.

So overall, what’s the likelihood of your team’s result being right on XIII Oceans?

It shouldn’t surprise you that Leeds and Saints occupy the top two spots but my assessments of both Hull sides are very different with a severe overestimation of Rovers’ abilities so far, whereas Hull, Huddersfield and Wigan previews can be counted on for being a good guide to those sides’ relative success.

Warriors v Leeds
Now here’s a head-to-head that’s been one of the premier fixtures in the northern hemisphere over the past twenty-five years, except for a brief lull in the early Super League days when Graham Holroyd was the Yorkshire side’s answer to Shaun Edwards.  Whilst Holroyd may have given Edwards a run for his money in the beauty stakes he was also a metaphor for Leeds’ aspirations pre-Graeme Murray i.e. he hadn’t a clue.  Anyway, how civilisations rise and fall.  Gone is Augustus Mo replaced by Augustus Moe.  Even when the pillars finally crumbled over a decade ago there remained a strong garrison that has continued to compete with the Rhinos even when their own ingredients have been a bit fruity.  This week it’s likely the visitors will be significantly under-strength, creating a remarkable opportunity for Noble to not only turnover the current kings but to get that locomotion of form going.  You have to fancy that the legends of Central Park, Gary Connolly and Andy Platt, would have relished a crack at the champions in their current state.  Their current state?  Hang on a second, I’m not saying that Leeds are flailing about on the ropes but their form is a bit indifferent, which is something that could also be said about the Warriors form since round one.  Why does it make a difference this time around?  Well we all know about the previous games between these two this year and so we all assume that those results lend themselves to being an influence on this one and who would argue with that?  A great win for the Warriors hopes if they get it and I fancy that they might just.  SL Factoid – the Warriors won three out of four games between the teams last year and have won the last four league meetings.  Warriors by 2. 

Harlequins RL v Saints
A must-read for Gutterfax and Lister as their beloved Harlequins RL play host to Super League’s form side.  No one will give Harlequins RL that much of a chance and those that don’t will highlight that when Leeds arrived at The Stoop they were more in a cabbage patch than a purple patch.  Saints arrive having dismantled the champions on their own ground and appear to have the most effective gameplan in the league.  At Huddersfield last week the visitors competed well, in physical terms, during the first half of the game, but Saints took advantage of the Giants indiscipline to storm clear.  A lot has been made recently of the penalty counts that Saints have received, leading to claims of bias and even suggestions that the Saints coach has manipulated the system so as to almost pick and choose the match official.  Wild conspiracies or plain old truthiness?  Whatever your opinion you have to recognise that teams with penalty counts in their favour, usually have it because the other side is struggling to compete with them.  It’s a common reality in many team sports.  SL Factoid - from 2006, Saints’ penalty count has decreased year-on-year.  Can Harlequins RL, a notoriously disruptive team that can play right at the edge of the law, contain this Saints side?  Very difficult.  Harlequins RL have overturned the form book many times but not very often against Saints and with the visitors strong run of form this could shape up into one of those old Broncos-Saints clashes were the home team pushes all the way, only to lose to some fluky piece of play or decision.  Alternatively it could just turn into a more recent contest with Saints controlling the game in a professional manner from start to finish.  Come on McDermott, get these guys fired up and give us that old rivalry back.  Saints by 8.

Castleford v Hull KR
SL Factoid - Castleford need to win six of their remaining eight fixtures to record the same number of points that they did in the year they were relegated.  In light of recent discussions about expansion and concern that some people have lodged, including me, about this competition being able to sustain a league of similar standard I think that’s very telling evidence that these concerns are not just with substance but actually right.  Castleford have found this year hard, their fans I’m sure have found it even harder and although their side will be better off for the experience, it raises big questions about what another two sides are going to do in this league.  So whilst Castleford’s poor showing this year (which, let’s not forget, can also be put down to the standard of the competition as a whole increasing too) has left their fans with not unsurprising disappointment, Rovers fans must be forlorn by their own side’s failure to progress in the second half of the season.  Justin Morgan had acquired some good personnel and his side responded, moving Rovers away from the bottom of the table, putting them in the playoff hunt until they just ran out of consistency.  Recent defeats to fellow playoff contenders means that Rovers will remain at least five points off six place should they beat the Tigers, lose and it’s a seven point gap and effectively goodbye to the playoffs for this year.  It’s difficult to ascertain exactly where things have gone wrong but it’s simple to generalise and it is the consistency.  An overused word but completely appropriate for teams that have mixed it with the best this year, however you can see from any of the games that these teams have lost, from winning positions, that it’s been down to playing the 80 minutes in patches.  I don’t think that there’s a side I’ve seen this year where it’s been more evident than with Rovers.  Rovers can’t afford to lose this one.  Rovers by 4.

Huddersfield v Bradford
I’m not sure that this is one that would have me queuing up for tickets despite being two of the more attractive teams to watch in recent years.  This season it’s less Going For Gold and more The Weakest Link.  Despite the reservations I have about the quality of fare that may be served up on Sunday it’s still an interesting prospect.  The Bulls are involved in a barging match at the lower end of the playoff spots and the Giants have freed themselves from the shackles of conservative football now that their season is reduced to completing the fixture list.  Last week the Giants showed glimpses of their power against Saints, battling hard until indiscipline caught up with them but it was enough for me to suggest, like as has happened with Wire, that these aren’t bad players, just players in need of some inspirational coaching.  Jon Sharp’s departure I’m not as sure about as the world was about Cullen’s but it’s done now and last week’s showing at Saints could have been a good foundation for this game.  Unfortunately as the game progressed the Giants found themselves out of the game and unable to build some sort of structure that could be used to help improve future performances.  SL Factoid – the Giants brought more fans to Knowsley Road last week than the Bulls did in their recent visit, obviously keen Time Team fans.  Bulls by 6.

Hull v Catalans Dragons
Is it possible to back against Catalans Dragons anymore?  They’ve just stuffed Warrington, turned the tables on Wakefield and now face a side that is still having difficulty stringing passes together.  You know how these games work, the Dragons are winning with consistency but Hull is a tough place to go.  Catalans have had wins there before and are in great form.  That should be enough for you to put your money on the French.  You can analyse all you want about the technical deficiencies, physical advantages and coaching ability but you cannot do that in isolation from the other intangible factors like venue, vocal support and previous records.  In fact, I read recently that including such intangibles doesn’t really provide any revealing insight into how events may pan out.  I don’t think you can say that.  If you had a team that’s lost their last ten away games you’d have to be silly to not believe that has no bearing on the next time that they play a game away from home even if they were in good form at home.  Still, like Hull playing at Wembley, I’m not going to win on that one so I abandoned reason and logic by playing Russian roulette with Brigitte Bardot’s castrated donkey.  I won.   Catalans by 6.

Warrington v Wakefield
Tuesday night’s game did more for our understanding of this year’s competition than any other result in recent weeks because it put three teams into perspective.  Victory for Catalans reinforced their Grand Final credentials (and the fact that we’re talking Grand Final and not just playoff credentials is incredible, after just three seasons) and it also gave us a context for both these teams.  Warrington more than just folded, over in Perpignan, whereas Wakefield just couldn’t hang on to the top three bound Dragons.  Defeat at the hands of the French franchise now means something different and those two losses put these teams firmly out of the upper reaches of the competition but well within the playoff hunt.  By all accounts last week’s episode in Wolfwatch had a cliff-hanger finale after a fairly poor game, which any fan will take from a road trip.  Warrington may have dropped off the pace over the past couple of months but they’ve continued to put points on the board which gives them a gambler’s chance in any shoot out.  Against Wakefield there’s every likelihood that this game could develop into one of those climaxes with some fine footballers on both sides.  If this was a football match you’re thinking Ossie Ardiles’ Tottingham against Keegan’s Toon Army, 5-4, 4-3 or 48-32 in RL terms.  If the showers come down you usually lose some points off the board but in essence these are similar teams with Wire’s threequarter strength tipping things in their balance.  Wire by 6.

Last week's predictions;

Warriors by 10 (won by 18 )
Leeds by 4 (won by 6)
Bulls by 8 (won by 20)
Hull by 4 (lost by 2)
Saints by 2 (won by 30)
Wildcats by 2 (lost by 16)

Not bad, four from six, keeping the overall percentage fairly steady at 71-44 (62%)

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Καλή ανάγνωση

Talking about television and I was relegated to watching the Leeds-Saints game on a small screen, in a pub, in Gretna last Friday and managed to watch the entire game without football interruptions (that was on the big screen).  Nothing exciting in that I know, except me watching the RL prompted a guy to come over and chat (these arseless leather chaps are hot man).  This guy was from Middlesbrough but was a Hull KR fan and we had a good discussion about the game and I'm sure that everyone finds it fascinating that you can go somewhere completely different and have a great reaction with any committed RL fan.  If you ever end up somewhere off the beaten track and see somebody watching RL or with a RL shirt on you have to go over and say something.  I know it gets tiring talking about RL as if it's the world's greatest secret sport (which it is!) but that friendliness knows no bounds and because of the nature of our sport it generates that kind of loyalty, trust and respect between fans. 

Onto this week's previews...

Warriors v Harlequins RL (+10)
There was plenty of RL logic applied in predicting Harlequins RL loss to the Giants last week, the trouble is that RL logic, like most sports, encompasses the importance of the mental location of teams and I think that sometimes people overlook that.  This game throws up a very interesting battle of wills with both teams likely to be coming from a negative position from where they’ll be looking to build themselves a platform for the playoffs.  Thanks to equalling disappointing runs of results for the two teams above them, Harlequins RL are still in there hanging in the hunt for sixth and with Saints visiting The Stoop next week they’ll be happy taking something out of either of these next two fixtures.  Next week might just present a better opportunity for Harlequins RL because the Warriors will be exceptionally keen to get their forthcoming JJB residence off to a flyer, the momentum possible from the home stretch of games can push them beyond their current position.  That incentive courted with Harlequins RL being in a bit of a rut on the road is usually all the RL logic that you need to suggest a home win.  I expect Harlequins RL to give a more honest performance this week against a pack that can be brushed aside but the return of Hock should be enough for the Warriors particularly because Paleaaesina usually turns up against the little boys of London.  Warriors by 10.

Leeds v Castleford (+14)
When I saw that the time and date of this fixture I was concerned that it was going to be the Saturday night SKY game.  Who wants to watch a big guy beat up on the little guy?  Nobody really so it makes you wonder if there’s any coincidence that this game was placed in this round because it was always likely that Leeds would have several players backing up from the night before.  Does anybody read that much into games?  Even if they did I’m sure you’d have the kind of fringe lunatic, that inhabits every set of fans, coming up and saying that this isn’t a mismatch because we’ve already beaten them at home.  Here’s the thing.  Shock results can happen, but when you start basing your entire belief system on that sort of outcome you are Talking Heads.  Orville bemoaned his side’s inability to convert chances last week against the Warriors and had they, the Tigers would have had another impressive win to go alongside several spectacular scalps and disappointing defeats.  This weekend’s game is different though with strong possibilities that the champions will not be letting their international players backup from the day before.  Even if they do there’s still question marks about how competitive the Rhinos will be.  Apply your RL logic now.  Leeds by 4.

Bradford v Hull KR (+8 )
Texas hold ‘em put paid to Rovers last week as they folded on the turn when in control and now they face a difficult task in getting back into the playoff picture.  It’s one thing losing, it’s another losing to a side that you believe to be of similar ability to yourself that’s ahead in the table.  I don’t think I’m underestimating the importance of that result to Rovers and defeat this weekend will put them five points behind sixth spot.  Meanwhile, the Bulls returned to winning ways against Hull and the margin of victory is enough for you to side with the home side again and a couple of weeks ago I pointed out that their fixtures would assist them in keeping touch with the teams above.  This game is very winnable for the Bulls and I believe that they’re strong enough at home to get a grip on this game with the way that Rovers just haven’t kicked on in the second part of the year, not that Webster’s absence has anything to do with that either.  Bulls by 8.

Hull v Warrington (Scr)
Battle of the former assistants and a match that means a lot more to the visitor’s prospects than it does the hosts.  That doesn’t really make much difference to how determined either side will be, with both sets of players having something to prove, no matter how different they are.  For Hull it’s places up for grabs next year and a willingness to demonstrate that this coach and side are worthy of discussion when it comes to trophy contenders in Super League XIV.  The Wire troops on the other hand are still in with a shout of a decent playoff position and when they’re in that mix anything can happen, unless they get an away trip to Saints.  The similarities continue by looking back at last week’s games when I imagine both sets of fans might have had a sneaking feeling that their side could cause an upset and I wouldn’t decry them for that (I even tipped Warrington).  Unfortunately harsh reality entered the fray and focus shifts towards this interesting game.  If there were any growing positive attitudes towards Lowes, defeat in Perpignan will have pushed several floaters into my pragmatic approach to Wire’s coaching appointment, which is a good thing for the club and can only serve to highlight the uncertainty that Agar’s appointment has.  Whatever your position on the coaching appointment situation at either club, Agar is talking tough, defending his side and has the fish wives providing the vocal support so although I look at those line ups and see Warrington’s attacking prowess, the KC is usually the kind of place where you’re more likely to get Numberwanged than be part of it.  Hull by 4.

St Helens v Huddersfield (+14)
Like Leeds, Saints have several players expected to play a part in Friday’s international which could make this Sunday tussle more interesting that it should be.  Huddersfield appear to have rediscovered their feel for the game which is attributable to the departure of Jon Sharp and subsequent ‘new coach’ factor.  Can they take advantage of the strain Friday’s international could put on Saints?  I would imagine that the Giants temporary coaching team will be plainly aware of that and will use it as a motivation tool at a time when confidence is on the rise.  Any advantage gained from last week’s tremendous victory over the champions can quickly disappear down the drain if Saints slip up here and there is certainly scope to do that.  You’d probably have to go back to the days of Harold Wagstaff, or as far back as when the Giants last had a five figure attendance, to when the Giants last won at Knowsley Road so this threatens to be a tight game.  As Daniel Anderson is reported to only be deciding on the morning of the game on who will be playing for Saints this is a tricky one and like the Leeds-Cas game even if the internationals are selected the exertions from tonight are likely to distort this match-up from what it would normally be.  Saints by 2.

Wakefield v Catalans Dragons
Game of the round presents a chance for the Wildcats to stake a serious claim to a playoff spot.  Is it a feasible win given Catalans consistency this year?  Well one of the pundits stated last week that people haven’t been sure about what to make of the Dragons and last week’s walloping of Wire pushed their credentials into the serious contenders sect.  As impressive as that scoreline was, the way in which the Wildcats chased the game and won was symptomatic of a team that is playing with confidence and a belief that has eluded more star-studded sides.  I think that Kear knows that if his side is in a similar situation on Tuesday they’re unlikely to be able to produce that sort of comeback against the Dragons.  At Belle Vue only Leeds find it easy to come here and claim victory amongst the heckles and with a few of the French players backing up from tonight this could be a great win for Wakefield.  I say great win because if they do it’ll be nose bleed time for their fans who haven’t been as high since their old 70s glue heydays.  Despite a win pushing the Wildcats closer to Catalans it’s unlikely to give them more breathing space from those behind.  Does that make any difference?  It could take a bit of pressure off, knowing that victory doesn’t cement their position, and it could add some which is why you consider the internal strengths of the two sides.  Catalans have grown into a confident side, whereas I think that Wakefield are still growing into that and it’ll be a focus on a fascinating tussle between the winning professionalism of the Catalans Australian contingent and this new found Rhubarb Triangle Zen mysticism that John Kear has built into his team.  Wildcats by 2.

Last week’s predictions.

Leeds by 8 (lost by 14)
Wolves by 4 (lost by Numberwang)
Rovers by 8 (lost by 8 )
Bulls by 6 (won by 14)
Warriors by 10 (draw)
Giants by 2 (won by 10)

Ouch!  Tough week last week thanks to a couple of great away performances and a disappointing one making the overall total 67-42 (62%).

Μερικά σκόρπια επίκαιρα σχόλια με αφορμή την «υπόθεση Αβραάμ Παπαδόπουλου»…

Με αφορμή την τροπή που παίρνουν τα πράγματα στην «υπόθεση Αβραάμ Παπαδόπουλου», θέλουμε να επισημάνουμε την ανάγκη να συνειδητοποιήσουν όλοι οι οπαδοί του ΑΡΗ αλλά και οι φίλαθλοι των άλλων ομάδων, ότι η ομάδα μας εδώ και καιρό αποτελεί στόχο. Ας γίνουμε πιο συγκεκριμένοι.

Κόκκινο πανί…

Ο ΑΡΗΣ είναι το κόκκινο πανί για τους μεγαλοεπιχειρηματίες που δεν ανέχονται μια ομάδα να είναι κάτω από τον έλεγχο των οπαδών της και να μην είναι του χεριού τους. Το μοντέλο διοίκησης του ΑΡΗ των τελευταίων χρόνων με τα πολύ καλά αγωνιστικά και οικονομικά αποτελέσματα, μπορεί να κερδίσει με την πάροδο του χρόνου την εμπιστοσύνη των οπαδών και άλλων ομάδων και αποτελεί αγκάθι για την «ευγενή» τάξη των εφοπ-ληστών και καπιτα-ληστών.

Δεν είναι τυχαία ούτε η διαιτητική σφαγή της ομάδας (π.χ. στους εκτός έδρας αγώνες με Ατρόμητο, Λεβαδειακό και ΠΑΟΚ) κατά την περσινή σεζόν, ούτε και η «επιχείρηση πλιάτσικο» που στήθηκε από τον Απρίλη και μετά (κατά κύριο λόγο) από τις ΠΑΕ ΠΑΟ και ΠΑΕ Ολυμπιακός, αλλά ούτε και η ενορχηστρωμένη δράση των κρατικών και ιδιωτικών ΜΜΕ (με ελάχιστες εξαιρέσεις).

Αν κρίνουμε από τις εκατοντάδες συζητήσεις μας σε διάφορα Blog και Forum, η ανένδοτη αντίσταση της Διοίκησης στις προσπάθειες απογύμνωσης της ομάδας του ΑΡΗ από τεχνικούς (Μπάγιεβιτς, Μπουρουτζίκας) και παίκτες (Γκαρσία, Κόκε, Αβραάμ) αλλά και η σθεναρή της στάση στις δημόσιες δηλώσεις της, έφερε την συμπάθεια ουκ ολίγων φιλάθλων άλλων ομάδων. Η «γοητεία» που εκπέμπει αυτή η αξιοπρέπεια της ομάδας μας σήμερα, μπορεί στο μέλλον να γίνει επικίνδυνη για ορισμένους «τσιφλικάδες» του ποδοσφαίρου.

Αβραάμ Παπαδόπουλος..

Ο ΑΡΗΣ είναι μια Ποδοσφαιρική Ανώνυμη Εταιρία που τα καταφέρνει να λειτουργεί ως μη-κερδοσκοπικός οπαδικός φορέας, χωρίς μετόχους και χωρίς προσωπικά οικονομικά (ή όποια άλλα) οφέλη για κανέναν.

Ο Αβραάμ αυτή τη στιγμή δεν φαίνεται να συγκινείται από την άλλη ποιότητα που πρεσβεύει ο σημερινός ΑΡΗΣ - ποιότητα που έχει να κάνει με την θεμελιώδη διαφορετικότητα στις αρχές λειτουργίας του - και οι νταβατζήδες φαίνεται ότι έχουν βρει πρόσφορο έδαφος αυτή τη στιγμή για τα βρώμικα παιχνίδια τους. Όμως με τη στάση μας ως ομάδα και οπαδοί, θα πρέπει όλοι εμείς να "βοηθήσουμε" τον παίκτη, μήπως και την ύστατη στιγμή καταλάβει την επιπολαιότητα της συμπεριφοράς του. Και να δεχτεί την πολύ γενναία προσφορά που του γίνεται από ένα καθαρά οπαδικό Σύλλογο. που προσπαθεί να ανταποκριθεί (με όρους Ανώνυμης Εταιρίας) στις δικαιολογημένες οικονομικές απαιτήσεις του.

Όχι χολή και μίσος, δεν βοηθά κανέναν αυτή τη στιγμή. Οι βρισιές και οι κατάρες αποτελούν συμπεριφορά αδυνάτου και εμείς δεν είμαστε αδύναμοι.

Η αλήθεια για τις προτάσεις από το εξωτερικό: Έπρεπε να παραχωρηθεί τον Γενάρη; ..

Σε ότι αφορά την άποψη ορισμένων ότι δεν υπάρχουν προτάσεις από το εξωτερικό για τον Αβραάμ και επομένως ότι δήθεν ο ΑΡΗΣ πουλάει φούμαρα, καθώς καιη άποψη ότι η αξία του παίκτη είναι κάτω των 2 εκ., θα καταθέσουμε τις παρακάτω πληροφορίες:

Ο Αβραάμ κοστολογήθηκε πριν 5 μήνες 5 εκατομμύρια Ευρώ από την Ζενίτ και η πρόταση (σωστά) απορρίφθηκε από την ΠΑΕ ΑΡΗΣ, όπως καταγράφεται στο παρακάτω ρωσικό site.

Πηγή: http://www.okolosport.ru/transfers/leagues/ru_rfpl.php?tw_id=31&club_id=6