BEYROUTH, 18 septembre  -- Le ministère libanais de la Défense a décrété une interdiction indéfinie de permis d'armes à  feu à partir de mercredi, à l'exception des armes que portent les  gardes du corps des diplomates, des ministres et des  parlementaires, a rapporté jeudi le journal local Daily Star.

Cette décision intervient suite à une réunion entre le  président Michel Sleimane et le Conseil de sécurité central au  palais présidentiel, visant à prévenir toute détérioration de la  situation sécuritaire après l'incident de tirs de mercredi, qui a  fait deux morts et trois blessés.

Pierre Ishaq des Forces libanaises et Youssef Franjieh du parti Marada ont été tués lors d'un affrontement armé à Bsarma, à  quelque 10 km au nord de la ville portuaire de Tripoli, dans la  province de Koura (nord).

L'armée libanaise est immédiatement intervenue et a installé  des points de contrôle dans la zone en prévision d'un  accroissement des violences.

Ces derniers mois, la région de Tripoli a connu des  affrontements féroces entre les partisans sunnites  pro-gouvernemenaux et les partisans alaouites d'opposition.

Apartheid Preservers reports:

Lebanese security officials say that a bomb has exploded on a busy street in the northern city of Tripoli, killing at least three people and wounding many others.

The officials say the bomb appear to have targeted a military bus in central Nour Square. They say Wednesday's explosion took place as the streets were full of people heading to work.

The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to speak to the media.

Tripoli has witnessed sectarian clashes in the past weeks that killed and wounded dozens of people.

The city is also close to the Palestinian refugee camp of Nahr el-Bared, which witnessed deadly clashes last year between Lebanese troops and members of the al-Qaida-inspired group Fatah Islam. [Source: AP via WireDispatch.com]

Of course to AP, all Lebanese conflicts are simply "sectarian clashes."

Update - 3:16amEST: At least 10 dead, mostly Lebanese military.

Update - 3:42: Turkish source reports 16 dead, seven of them soldiers. Irish source reports same.

Update - 4:20: AP and a few others are saying at least 18 dead and 40 wounded.

Update - 5:20: Still 18 dead, 10 of them soldiers, and 40 wounded.

AP, meanwhile, elaborately infers Syrian guilt with no evidence:

[Tripoli] has witnessed sectarian clashes between Sunni fighters and followers of the Alawite sect, an offshoot Shiite sect, in the past weeks that killed and wounded dozens of people. . . .

The explosion also comes as President Michel Suleiman holds a landmark visit to neighboring Syria Wednesday — the first visit by a Lebanese president in about three years.

Ties have deteriorated since Syrian troops withdrew from Lebanon under international pressure in the wake of the Hariri assassination. Hariri's supporters blame Syria for the killing, while Damascus denies involvement.

Gee, I wonder why AP didn't think it was necessary to also ask opposition supporters whom they might want to blame.

Geagea had also asked Suleiman to sponsor national dialogue after the formation of the new cabinet to facilitate agreement on con non grounds that help in preparing the cabinet's policy statement.

This doesn't feel like the Middle East, I thought. Switzerland, maybe. Well no, more like somewhere in Eastern Europe. Estonia, or Lithuania. Yes, Lithuania.

I was eating a bacon sandwich on a park bench in the small town of Bcharre, a Maronite Christian town high above the Qadisha Valley in Mount Lebanon. Even in June, there were still small patches of snow on the tallest peaks across the rocky gorge. Except for a handful of men relaxing in the main square nearby, Bcharre was completely empty.

Warm grease from the sandwich dripped down onto my clothes, staining my jeans - a small price to pay for my first pork in months. The meat actually tasted like pig, a familiar but slightly foreign feeling, like the smell of the first cut grass in spring. In the distance, the melody of church bells chimed softly through the crisp, mountain air.

Definitely doesn't feel like the Middle East.

I started the day in a foul mood. The early call to prayer dinning in my ears forced me out of bed at the crack of dawn. I was soaked in my own sweat. The nighttime humidity in Tripoli had been unbearable, and without a fan, my room was like a sauna.

Unable to fall back to sleep, I got an early start on the day - trekking East to Bcharre to see the famous Cedars of Lebanon.

The small bus I took from Tripoli was standard fare for the Middle East – 30 people in 20 seats, an out-of-control driver, and ear-piercing prayers from crackled speakers. Only this time, they were playing verses from the Bible. Then I noticed stickers of Jesus taped to the windshield near the driver. People in most seats were fumbling with rosary beads. I finally gathered that the bus was full of Maronites heading home to Bcharre.

We drove past lush pastures and groves of olive trees before climbing into the mountains. I struck up a conversation with the bus money-collector, a twenty-year old kid that basically rode shotgun so the driver could focus on the steep road's narrow turns. I asked the kid about religion, and he pulled out his wallet to show me two crosses pinned inside the leather fold. They resembled daggers, with sharp points at the bottom.

Bcharre has always been the most important Christian stronghold in Lebanon, going back hundreds of years ago when the Maronites fled to the mountains to avoid religious persecution. Today, Bcharre's a charming town spread around a small square and large church with two red-topped steeples. Clean air and a beautiful backdrop - really the kind of place you want to waste your time in.

I hired a taxi, an old Mercedes with Christian symbols plastered to the dashboard, to drive me the 7 kilometers up the mountain to the cedars.

The cedar is more than just a tree in Lebanon; it's the emblem on their flag and a celebrated symbol throughout Lebanese history. The seafaring Phoenicians constructed boats from the Lebanon Cedar. They traded cedar wood to the Greeks, Romans, Egyptians, and Persians. Supposedly, King Solomon’s temple was constructed with Lebanese cedar wood. But deforestation has depleted most of the country’s cedars.

The patch of trees that I saw – one of the best in Lebanon - was so small you could walk through the entire plot in under thirty minutes. But what beautiful trees! Massive trees standing fifty or more feet tall, some thousands of years old, lined the mountaintop. Immense branches, covered with bright green foliage, reached into the sky.

Rather than catch a cab, I walked back down the mountain, passing some of the most beautiful scenery in Lebanon. Over the course of the two-hour hike, I passed several luxury mansions built into the steep mountainside. Many of them had crosses painted on doors or walls near the road, similar to the ones I saw on the bus ride - with the sharp edge on the bottom.

The cross is the one of the logos for the Lebanese Forces, a right-wing political party headed by Samir Geagea. The Lebanese Forces - not to be confused with Lebanon's military - was a powerful Christian militia during the Civil War, responsible in part for the atrocities in Sabra and Shatila. Since the Cedar Revolution in 2005, the party has played a majority role in Lebanon's government, and violence is no longer on the agenda.

But in late 2007, the New York Times ran a story claiming that Christians in Lebanon were arming their militias again, recruiting and training new soldiers in the northern mountains of Lebanon. The article stated that, "Christian youth are signing up for militant factions in the greatest numbers since the end of the civil war, spray painting nationalist symbols on walls and tattooing them on their skin, and proclaiming their willingness to fight in a new civil war."

I wondered if Christian militias were training in the very mountains I was hiking. I also thought about the young kid I talked to on the bus.

Politicians in Lebanon seem to have achieved rock-star status, with large billboards and posters plastered with their faces throughout the country. Lebanon hasn't always dealt with confessionalism in the smartest ways over the years, but it doesn't seem like wearing your religion or party affiliation on your sleeve is a good way to achieve unity. Furthermore, something just doesn't seem to add up when a Christian party uses a sharpened instrument of violence as their logo.

The Lebanese Forces own website claims that the cut in the cross symbolizes "the strength of the Lebanese Christians' will and their determination to keep the cross planted in this region of the world." What in the hell does that mean? It seems more like the sharp blade of a knife, and a willingness to pull it out when things aren't going well.

I packed up to leave Bcharre as the 6pm church bells chimed.

The same money-collector was on my bus back down the mountain. I wanted to ask him how far he'd go to defend his religion, but just didn't have the patience to get into it. We just talked about the pictures in my guidebook.

We pulled into a hot Tripoli that night just in time for the evening call to prayer.

Franklin Lamb
Tent City, Beirut

"The agreement was not ideal for either party and I hope that it will serve as a launch pad for decent relations between the majority and the opposition. We will tackle the other issues in Beirut and there is no need to fear anything".

--- MP Michel Aoun, Hezbollah ally and leader of the Christian Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) following this morning's Doha agreement

Lebanon will have General Michel Suleiman [pictured] as its new President, possibly within hours. But no later than Sunday May 25, in order to allow time for the international community to send representatives.

Suleiman had appeared to be closer to the government coalition when he was first nominated but he was recently criticized as being too close to the opposition when his troops did not intervene when gun battles broke out between the warring sides this month.

Some say events make the man. Others the obverse. Suleiman could be a much needed, honest, strong, independent leader that will endear him to Lebanon and the Arab cause and Nation. This 'unity president' was finally confirmed after rival Lebanese political factions agreed, after talks in Doha, Qatar, in a deal to resolve the 18-month crisis that has kept the country without a president since November.

Under the country's sectarian democracy, the position of President is filled by a Christian Maronite. Suleiman will be Lebanon's 12th president since the country's independence in 1943 and the third after the Saudi-brokered Taif Accord that ended Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war. General Suleiman, 59, has held his post as Army commander since 1998.

As of this afternoon, hundreds of people and shop-owners of downtown Beirut took to the streets of the city in jubilation over the agreement. Foreigners living in Lebanon cannot help but share their joy and being filled with a sense of 'These gifted and long-suffering people deserve some peace' -- enshallah it will last.

Some of the residents of Beirut's Tent City are posing for photos this morning; others are packing up their belongings and taking down their tents following the Doha Agreement that was reached in the early hours of May 21. It buys some time for Lebanon to sort out its politics. One young Swiss couple is haggling with a fellow from Lebanon's Communist Party (what's left of it) trying to buy a tent for their trek around Lebanon.

Hezbollah has informed the head of Beirut's municipality and its Mayor that it will help rehabilitate downtown Beirut and will pay for any damage incurred to stores that happened during the nearly 18 months stay of the Tent City.

The Accord has been well received internationally so far, with Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iran and France expressing satisfaction, even though each side gave a qualified endorsement of the Doha results depending on their party's stance. The Bush administration is reported to believe that what was agreed upon at Doha was probably the best they could get at the last minute when delegates were packing to leave Doha without any agreement. Time will tell.

The dismantling of the Hezbollah-erected 'tent city' in posh Rafiq Hariri-built downtown Beirut cannot happen fast enough for those whose businesses have suffered, been forced to move, or have been lost due to the 18-month pro-opposition civil disobedience occupation. There is hope that some of the millions of dollars lost during the 18 month occupation can be recouped if the coming tourist season brings in around one million visitors.

Relief is in the air.

The mental and physical fatigue of many Lebanese from the constant tension, political bickering and occasional deadly violence in their country has been summed up by demonstrations held along the road leading to Beirut's international airport by non-governmental organizations. "Agree, or shame on you," read another message to Lebanon's representatives, while another said, "We want to raise our children in Lebanon!"

Across Lebanon a collective sigh of relief is palpable and almost audible as the civic organization Khalass! (Enough!) removes their signs from the airport road. Yesterday, several dozen citizens whom were injured and left handicapped from the 1975-90 Civil War held up signs telling their leaders to end the political paralysis in Lebanon or not to return. "If you don't reach agreement, don't come back!", some of the signs read.

During the last hours of May 20 there was gloom at the Doha Conference Center where Lebanon's political parties were gathered and the usual political bickering continued. Opposition Member Michel Aoun accused pro-Siniora government March14 leader Saad Hariri of seeking to establish Beirut as a 'Hariri' city, not a capital for all Lebanon. "This is the main point we disagree on," he said.

"The agreement was not ideal for either party and I hope that it will serve as a launch pad for decent relations between the majority and the opposition. We will tackle the other issues in Beirut and there is no need to fear anything", Aoun has said today.

Meanwhile Lebanese Forces head Samir Geagea repeated his recent favorite phase that "They [Hezbollah] will not get at Doha what they did not get with their weapons", and that the Doha talks were "staggering" due to Hezbollah demands. Geagea renewed his call yesterday for "an Arab Deterrent Force" to bring stability to Lebanon. When a journalist asked Geagea did he mean like the last Arab Deterrent Force that came in 1976 and stayed for 29 years (i.e. Syria) Geagea just glared at the impertinent young lady from Greece while others smiled and giggled.

So it is thus that after five days, at close to 3 a.m. on May 21, Lebanon's political factions have in fact agreed to an arrangement which will allow for General Michel Suleiman to be elected Lebanon's President, and a unity government to be formed.

The recent stumbling block was the new election law. The Hezbollah-led Opposition still wants as close to a one person-one vote system as they can get. They would also like the voting age lowered to 18 years which would benefit them among the younger, politically active Lebanese. They did not get either in Doha but with an expanded government to be set up within days discussions can begin anew.

With regard to the critical 'deal breaker' issue of Hezbollah's weapons, this was kept off the table and finessed in Doha and the new government will debate and decide how Lebanon will view and deal with it. Hezbollah feels protected for now since it effectively achieved at Doha the veto over government Cabinet decisions. It had sought this since the end of the July 2006 war.

Pending the 2009 Parliamentary elections, the 'unity government' is to be as follows:

The US-, Israel-, Saudi-backed majority gets 16 of the 30 Cabinet seats. The Iran- and Syria-favored Opposition led by Hezbollah and which includes the largest Christian party, the Michel Aoun-led FPM gets 11 Cabinet posts and the remaining 3 will be chosen by President Suleiman.

Some observers, including this one, thinks that next year's election with likely double Hezbollah's current number of Parliamentary seats of 14, which could go as high at forty or more. Michel Aoun's FPM also stands to double the number of its Deputies. If this happens there would be ample votes for the Opposition (which could become the new Majority following the 2009 balloting) to protect the weapons of the Resistance, still a key point of contention between the US-Israel-Saudi backed Majority Government and the Iranian-Syrian favored Opposition. For now the Government will address the issue of not using weapons to achieve political gains and focus on the commitment to the decisions reached during the 2006 dialogue. This should work for the time being.

Also agreed upon at Doha is the adoption of the Qada (Lebanese administrative District)-based 1960 electoral law with Beirut divided into three constituencies:

* The first electoral district comprises Ashrafiye, Rmeil and Saifi with five seats: Two Armenians, one Maronite, one Orthodox and one Catholic;

* The second electoral district comprising Bashoura, Medawwar and Marfa' with four seats: One Sunni, one Shiite and two Armenians;

* The third electoral district comprising Mazraa, Msaytbe, Ras Beirut, Mina el Hosn, Zaqa el Blat and Dar el Mrayseh with ten seats: Five Sunnis, one Shiite, one Druze, one Orthodox, one Evangelical and one for the minorities.

This arrangement is actually pretty fair to both sides for now given the current circumstances and the fact that there has been no census since 1932. Saad Hariri got most of what the Future Movement wanted in order to preserve his electoral base in West Beirut.

Soon all eyes will be on the coming election which may be the most important since Lebanon achieved its independent from France in 1943.

Washington, Tel Aviv, Tehran, Damascus and Riyadh will have their favorite candidates and will, no doubt, be watching closely.

Franklin Lamb can be reached at fplamb@gmail.com

Franklin Lamb
Choufeit, Lebanon

In the lower Chouf village of Choufeit with its panoramic view of Beirut's closed airport (which will likely stay closed for 4 or 5 more days as a Hezbollah pressure point on the Bush administration to achieve a settlement that it views as fair and just), Dahiyeh, Sabra, Shatila and Burj Burajneh Palestinian Refugee Camps; Pentecost Sunday started in a somber mood for the few remaining Christians and dominant Druze population of this picturesque, rugged, hilly and ancient village.

The reason was that virtually the whole village was in attendance at a 9 a.m. memorial service for two supporters of the Druze Lebanese Democratic Party, 18 year old ____ and 22 year old _____ (names withheld at the request of family pending notification of family members living outside Lebanon) who were probably shot as they drove too fast through a newly setup check-point on May 10th. (The exact circumstances and who exactly was responsible are not clear given the myriad explanations one receives depending on who one talks to in this tight-knit village.

Perhaps only in American black communities has this observer witnessed such a large turnout by the local population at funerals for a neighborhood member who was felled by violence. Parked cars snaked for nearly one mile in all directions alongside the winding roads. Hundreds of Druze women dressed in black with white scarves around their necks and some men in traditional black baggy Druze garb with knitted white caps mournfully gathered along their former enemies, the Christian population.

Once more, a Mt. Lebanon village united in mourning at dawn would be killing the neighbors sitting next to them at a memorial service hours later in the afternoon. Choufeit has never been more split than it is this morning. "If Jumblatt ever comes to Choufeit we will kill him," said a town butcher from the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) who fought hard for 5 hours yesterday against Jumblatt's Progressive Socialist Party (PSP).

The killing of these two Druze young men did not directly cause yesterday's intense violence in Choufeit but it definitely affected the tenseness and ferocity of their revenge seeking friends, family and community.

Chief among those blamed is Walid Jumblatt, known as "the weather vane", given his history of changing his political stance depending on the current power alignment, and who is expected to seek a deal with Hezbollah in a bid to keep some position in the coming new government. It was just 36 months ago that Jumblatt was praising Hezbollah as the legitimate Lebanese Resistance and he may return to that position as he appears ready to give up his role in the Welch Club and try to save his leadership role in the deeply fractured Druze community. Hezbollah will now dry up Jumblatt's power and shut him up. The Party will very likely force him to reconcile with the—as of this morning—much stronger Druze leader Talal Arslan, Hezbollah's ally, who is getting credit for arranging last night's ceasefire and presumably saving many Druze lives.

Hezbollah support in the Druze community is growing rapidly this morning. Its current major task now being worked on is to improve its relations with many seething in the Sunni community. As St. Joseph's University gifted Professor Eugene Sensenig-Dabbous recently commented, (I paraphrase) when trouble starts in Lebanon the religious confessions look to their own, no matter what they were pontificating just hours before about "one Lebanon—one people de-confessionalized."

As of 6 a.m. this morning, Choufeit is deeply wounded and the main street is littered with hundreds of 5 inch 50mm heavy machine gun casings as well Kalashnikov and M-16 shells, RPG casings, 107mm mortar rounds, broken glass, many patches and trails of of blood, a few burned out cars, and a few damaged shelled apartment houses. The house of Jumblatt's deputy was shelled and burned around 5 p.m. yesterday—it was still burning this morning as no one has bothered to put it out. The power lines to Choufeit have been cut and main cables are on some roads. It is unknown how long the village will be without power.

"We killed 56 terrorists and they killed four of us," town lawyer Khalil Juridi who practices law with his brother and sister as Jurdi, Jurdi, and Jurdi in the Jurdi Building in Choufeit. (The casualty numbers are not verified yet. This morning as I passed by Choufeit's Kamal Jumblatt hospital, a nurse told me she thought about 10 were killed.)

I was surprised to see Khalil heavily armed as I returned from Hamra around 12:30 yesterday. As he kept warning me and others to stay inside, dozens of towns people, virtually all of whom had been at the young men's funeral hours before they gathered with their weapons on the streets. This was a motley group to be sure but steeled and ready to die if need be to defend their village. Some left to help friends fight in Toumat Niha, Mresti and Jabal el-Barouk. Fighting also raged in of Kayfoun, Qamatiyeh, Bchamoun, Aytat, Shweifat, Baysour, Ras el-Jabal. The difference in Choufeit is that it was largely a Muslim intra-Druze fight.

This observer at first discounted what Khalil was saying yesterday early afternoon about the pro-Hezbollah Talal Arslan Druze group, many of whom lived in our neighborhood and who Khalil had grown up with, advancing up the hill on Choufeit because I was distracted thinking about my morning in Hamra. Plus, one gets inured here sometimes by so many rumors difficult to pin down.

In Hamra, on Pentecost Sunday morning things were much clearer. Contrary to the BBC report, Hezbollah has not completely withdrawn from West Beirut. They are manning the cut and block of the main Corniche road just diagonal from the Bay Bank in front of Bay Rocks. They advised that they will stay there pending a fair settlement with the 'ruling team'.

The reality in West Beirut today is that even if every Hezbollah member but one withdrew, Hezbollah would still be in control of Lebanon's capitol. He does not even need to have a weapon. All that is necessary is for it to be known that he is present. The Lebanese Army is increasingly deployed but its role is determined by the Bay Rocks barricade.

One faculty member of the American University of Beirut (AUB) explained that if someone from Hezbollah handed the US Embassy gate-keeper a polite note asking the Embassy to close up shop, it would be done within hours this Monday. This observer agrees with an increasing number here that in critical ways, Hezbollah is now Lebanon and the American era is teetering. Whether the damage done by the Israeli lobby controlled Bush administration Middle East policy is reversible, anything soon is unclear. Comments such as the one by U.S. National Security Council spokesman Gordon Johndroe on Saturday blamed Hezbollah for the fighting saying: "They continue to be a destabilizing force there with the backing of their supporters, Iran and Syria." The immediate future is not encouraging until the current US administration indicates a willingness to engage with Hezbollah on the basis of mutual respect, free and open dialogue, and commitment to solving the regions problems, including a just solution to the Question of Palestine.

Two blocks up to the right of the continuing Hezbollah position are 10 or more Christian National Syrian Socialist Party (NSSP) groups of heavily armed fighters. Unlike the Hezbollah guys they would not agree to photos but did proudly take this observer's photo of their handiwork outside the burned out Hariri Future TV complex first started in 1993 and which developed recently into not just the mouthpiece of the pro-Bush Administration March 14 group but as the broadcaster of reputedly excellent programs popular around the Middle East.

The NSSP and the army are both posted in close proximity of Queitem, the Hariri mansion where Saad is in some ways under house arrest this Monday afternoon. Yesterday, Amin Gemayel rushed back from Paris, against the advice of some, to try to prevent Samir Geagea from staging a putsch and replace Amin as head of the Phalange Party.

"Amin's tough problem is that Geagea learned more from Amin's brother Bashir than Amin did concerning how to deal with rivals for power. Ask the Frangieh and Chamoun families", a former deputy to George Hrawi of Lebanon's Communist Party recently commented. Jumblatt not Geagea (this time) is a prime suspect in Hrawi's 2005 assassination.

Geagea is meeting with Siniora this afternoon and earlier reported rumors are resurfacing that Geagea may be cannoned the Welch Club future Christian leader of Lebanon.

The Arab League delegation arriving in Beirut is expected to achieve more than a vague general 'feel good' declaration before it departs. The reality is that the League also is deeply split with dramatic increase of support for the Lebanese Resistance.

Returning to Choufeit where I was staying, I had become used to descending the three floors underground in pitch blackness, sometimes using my mobile phone for a little light.

Returning around 2pm yesterday I was very surprised to find around 35 people outside my flat door in the stairwell. I did not see or hear them until I stepped on one. As I opened the door we could see each other and one mother explained that they were all afraid to stay in the upper floors because they have lots of windows and they are afraid of snipers. As she spoke the children (who they later told me they held their breaths as I came down the stairs in the dark because they thought I must be the 'enemy') resumed their crying and wailing. The flat is large with two baths but little furniture and they all moved in. As I left this morning around 6am some were still asleep on the floors.

Getting solid information here is sometimes tough unless you do the digging yourself.

Some of the best I got recently was last night from 12 Aya, a precocious Lebanese charm of a young lady. Three times Aya came to where I was sleeping and woke me up "to see if you were ok".

Later she admitted that she "needed to talk". After explaining that her family felt abandoned by their father who was still in Dubai and was supposed to arrive last week, Aya offered valuable insights in response to some questions I posed.

As only a parent of a 12 year old young lady can possibly understand, Aya speaks clearly and to the point. Part of the conversation went something like this:

"How are you now Aya, are you ok?"

"I am scared."

"Well, everything is fine now, the fighting is over". Five seconds later there was a huge blast nearby. Aya just stared at me.

"Honey, don't be worried. Things will be fine."

"Yeah right."

What are you afraid of?"

"Of dying, they want to kill us."

"Who?"

"Our enemies."

"Who are your enemies?"

"I don't know. We have so many."

I tried to change the subject and I mentioned my 12 year old daughter in the States. I told Aya how much I missed her and wished she could come to Lebanon and the girls could be friends. "And you could teach her more Arabic and show her around your beautiful country and you could do fun stuff."

"I have a better idea," Aya said. "Why don't I just go to America and stay with her for awhile?"

Franklin Lamb can be reached at: fplamb@gmail.com

Beirut Street Notes: Hamra

Hezbollah eases up and Beirut opens its shutters

Franklin Lamb
Beirut

Saturday Afternoon May 10 2008 witnessed a pronounced easing of tension.

Is a solution at hand?

Based on a US Congressional source, the Siniora government is reportedly able, with US approval, to offer the following face-saving proposal to Hezbollah to end the current crisis:

1. Hezbollah can keep its landline optic telecommunication cables for use in its Resistance struggle against Israel. But they should be put under "State Control". Translation: Hezbollah controls them exclusively same as now and no one else will touch them. But 'officially' they will be under 'State' control, i.e. not State control.

2. Concerning the other major issue regarding the head of Beirut Airport Security, General Wafiq Shouqair gets reassigned but Hezbollah gets to name his replacement. Translation: Wafiq stays in office, keeps his authority and puts his deputy's name card slipped over his on the office nameplate.

The public version of the proposal above reads a bit differently as offered this afternoon by Siniora. It does not mention to the public "due to sectarian sensitivities" points one and two above. It also includes the formation of a national unity government in which the minority cannot block decisions and the majority cannot impose them.

Siniora has also proposed a five-point introduction to a settlement, including placing the two government decisions in the hands of the army but will withdraw these quietly.

Hezbollah has issued no comment on this report as of press time. UPDATE: The Lebanese army announced at 5:30 p.m. Beirut time that it recommended that the two government measures against Hezbollah that had triggered the Lebanese Resistance to take control of Beirut be overturned, and the military urged gunmen to withdraw from the streets.

The army said in a statement it was keeping the head of the security at Beirut airport Wafiq Shouqair in his post and that it would handle Hezbollah's communications network in a way "that would not harm public interest and the security of the resistance."

Lebanon's U.S.-backed Prime Minister Fouad Siniora said earlier on Saturday that he was putting the two issues, which have sparked the worst fighting in Lebanon since the 1975-90 civil war, into the hands of the Lebanese army.

The current situation in Hamra

Many Hezbollah fighters left the streets of Hamra and turned them over to the Lebanese Army which had been largely absent on Friday.

Some of Hezbollah's withdrawing 'regulars' were replaced by 'reserves'. "Its good for their training", one fellow who was obviously in charge outside of Starbucks on Hamra Street, explained through an interpreter. Some Hezbollah and Amal forces seemed quite willing to speak with the media about their mission.

Some pro-opposition commentators wandered around Hamra trying to assure returning residents.

"This was not a coup! Think of it as a protest and message to Bush and Olmert. If we wanted a coup we could surround the Serail. Mr. Siniora would perhaps hand us the keys. We don't want them. Let's all prepare for elections and let the people decide who sits in Parliament and makes up Cabinet."

Hezbollah reportedly has excellent relations with the Lebanese Army and wants to maintain them. Evidence of this is apparent today as Hezbollah's forces made a point of politely and almost paternally yielding some of their street corner locations to the Army with handshakes and sometimes kisses.

Outside Costa Coffee down from the Bristol Hotel, one seasoned Hezbollah fighter spoke to some obviously younger and 'greener' Party members and instructed them on their duties as they relieved him and he headed south for rest. He explained that things went fairly smoothly yesterday and that they would likely see residents start returning to Hamra. "Be helpful to those who need help. Assure them their neighborhood is secure and safe. We will start no violence and if someone else wants to we can assure those in who live in Hamra that we will quickly deal with troublemakers".

A few isolated acts of vandalism were reported yesterday and an internal joint Hezbollah-Amal investigation is underway to find out about what happened and insure that there is no recurrence. "No bad behavior by our fighters or any of our allies will be tolerated and bad behavior (from our side) will be severely punished and if vandalism occurred, Hezbollah will pay for it! Lebanon knows our standards. Remember during the July 2006 War. When our fighters had to use food and water that belonged to absent owners we left IOUs on the table. Everyone was later paid."

Some Amal guys were looking for an open sandwich shop but doubted that "people here in Hamra make sandwiches as great as we have in Ouzai. Our area has the best kebabs in all of Lebanon!!" (this observer did not have the heart to ask the young man if this was his first time outside of his "area").

"We will be magnanimous toward our adversaries in the small victory we achieved the past couple of days", explained 'Ali' an acquaintance of this observer who also lives in Haret Hreik.

"If the "ruling team" wants to claim victory that is fine with us. They can attack us verbally all they want. We are used to this. This situation was forced on us and we defended ourselves. Now we should seek a just and quick solution and heal any wounds", one young woman, obviously a Hezbollah supporter explained as she chatted with some fighters and journalists. She added, "We want dialogue and a fair peaceful solution. We are a Resistance movement and will not participate in a civil war".

As of this afternoon the losers and winners appear as follows:

The main losers obviously are the Bush administration, Israel and their Welch Club allies. Personal losers are Amin Gemayel, barely still the "leader" of the Phalange Party, as he talks tough and tries to rally his 'forces'…from Paris. Samir Geagea has pretty much nudged him aside and is reportedly casting his dark gaze toward Saad Hariri who may be planning to retire from politics and help with the very big family business. After the parties meet with President Bush next week, a 'shaking out' process may begin.

Walid Jumblatt is another loser since his provocations, taunts, and Welch Club cheerleader role to take on Hezbollah left him at its mercy both in the Mountains and in his Beirut home. Whatever credibility he had has evaporated. Among the Druze there is discord and inter-party fisticuffs as there was last night in Choufeit when Jumblatt asked the army to occupy and secure his Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) HQ but some of the younger members threatened violence, as the villagers watched beneath a huge a poster of party founder Kamal Jumblatt and the army and Jumblatt jr. backed off. PSP problems will require Walid's sustained attention for some while party members explained last evening to this observer.

Prime Minister Fouad Siniora loses more of his waning influence and status. One of his main problems is that he is increasingly seen as a Bush administration puppet. Not least of his worries this morning, as he prepares to avoid being dumped by Bush next week, is the ringing endorsement he received yesterday from Secretary of State Rice, without bringing herself to mention Siniora by name:

"Our support for the legitimate Lebanese government, its democratic institutions, and its security services is unwavering. This support is a reflection of our unshakable commitment to the Lebanese people and their hope for democratic change, economic prosperity, and confessional harmony. We will stand by the Lebanese government and peaceful citizens of Lebanon through this crisis and provide the support they need to weather this storm."

She would not even mention his name as she employed the standard State Department verbiage just before a US puppet is dumped. It was dusted off from Vietnam days when JFK (Diem) and LBJ (Thieu) used almost identical language before switching horses.

The rest of Rice's analysis seemed to many in Lebanon, whose population is among the most politically sophisticated in many ways, as simply obtuse: "No one has a right to deprive Lebanese citizens of their political and economic freedom, their right to move freely within their country, or their sense of safety and security".

State Department officials said this morning that the international coalition supporting the Lebanese state against Hezbollah has never been stronger. Washington believes Hezbollah has "bitten off a bit too much" and now risks alienating the rest of Lebanon's population, including Hezbollah's important Christian allies, an official said.

The Bush administration reminded the World that it has spent $1.3 billion over the past two years to prop up Siniora's government, with about $400 million dedicated to boosting Lebanon's security forces. This statement constitutes a hoax according to some informed observers in Lebanon:

"The money the Bush administration has spent has been to create a Sunni 'Internal Security Force' not for the Lebanese but for the 'ruling team' (the name the oppositions and its allies call the current government of Lebanon) which is no more than a militia run by pro-American officers. Hezbollah could defeat and disband this Bush militia in three hours of less", according to one long time UNIFIL program administrator.

One frustrated US Senate Intelligence Committee staffer emailed this morning with a tinge of irony and cynicism:

Referring to President Bush: "Now this loser has really done it. Having effectively delivered Iraq and Afghanistan to Iran, he has now handed them Lebanon. Mark my words, Saudi Arabia is next and the Saudis know it and will make a deal with Iran."

The major winners are obvious: Lebanon's Christian population allied with General Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), Hezbollah, Amal and their Sunni, Druze and international supporters.

Hassan Nasrallah's position is probably the strongest it has ever been, not just in Lebanon but throughout the region. If he wanted to be a dictator of all of Lebanon, which he eschews, he could have the position today.

Rami Khoury, writing in Beirut's Daily Star this morning got it right in this observer's view when he wrote:

Nasrallah's task now is to create an inclusive environment conducive to the answering of these and other challenges. He and his party cannot be expected to come up with all of the solutions, and nor should they want to: If they cannot draw other players - and not just their closest allies - into the process, Nasrallah runs the risk of being cast as a dictator by default.

Hizbullah and its partners have frequently argued that their counterparts in the March 14 Forces coalition were not interested in true partnership, only in dictating terms. Now Nasrallah has to prove that his side is ready, willing and able to live up to its own expectations, and speed is of the essence: After 15 years of civil war, 15 of diluted sovereignty, and three of limbo, the Lebanese deserve at last to have a level of politics commensurate with their talents and energies. If Nasrallah is the man who makes this happen, history will judge his actions to have been a revolution, not a coup, and a long-overdue one at that.

Late news is that the airport may open by Monday but this is not certain.

Franklin Lamb can be reached at fplamb@gmail.com

Day Three - The Chess Match: Nasrallah opens with a Knight
Next move: Bush

Street Notes and Findings from Beirut's Hamra District: May 9, 2008

Franklin Lamb
Beirut

"Where did they come from?", the desk clerk at the Royal Plaza Hotel in Rauche by the sea near Hamra wondered out loud. "I have been on duty all night and saw nothing. Suddenly they are everywhere!"

Of course this observer wondered the same thing. The time was around 8:30 am, having ducked into the Hotel to escape a flash shower before the sunny morning returned.

This observer left Haret Hreik neighborhood in Dahiyeh by motorcycle around 6:45 am this morning and headed toward the airport road near the Jnah/Ouzai round-about. Dahiyeh is quiet. Essentially normal. (Around 1 pm returning from Hamra I did notice that none of the Haret Hreik guys were playing football at the local athletic fields—it dawned on me where they were).

After some Hezbollah guys cut a path for me through one of the earthen berms which block the airport road I decided to see how far I could get to Hamra along the sea road past the Coral Beach Hotel, Ramlet el Baida and to the Corniche below the American University of Beirut. No traffic all the way. And few signs of life along the sea. When I returned nearly four hours later by the same route, Hezbollah and Amal were all along this route.

According to the Hezbollah guys manning the Berms on airport road, the airport will stay closed until the 'three conditions' are met i.e the pro-US government pledges to keep its hands off the optic fiber telecommunication network of the Resistance; the Government reinstates head of Beirut Airport Security General Wafiq Shouqair; and the Majority agrees to a dialogue. Until that happens, West Beirut and the Airport will stay closed.

Just opposite the Movenpick Hotel on the water I cut up a side street leading into Hamra. Unbeknownst to me at the time I nearly drove through this morning's fire fight near Saad Hariri's mansion. The very loud noise and the rain forced me back to the Royal Plaza where I bumped into two Middle East Airline Crew who said MEA told them no flights will leave until at least Saturday. "The Company is negotiating with their insurance people who insist they do not fly. If someone fires a single rocket at the airport it will stay closed".

For the next nearly four hours I toured Hamra (on one of a dozen moving vehicles I saw the whole time).

What I learned was that all of West Beirut is occupied and shut down by Hezbollah and Amal forces. One of the benefits of living in Dahiyeh is that one becomes recognized and so I was given relatively free passage. Fairly candid conversation was assured because of the roughly 70 groups of Hezbollah fighters I saw, nearly every third one had someone who recognized me.

Stopping in front of Robert Fisk's third floor Corniche flat and noticing his veranda door open I knew he was in town. I shouted, "Yala Robert?" "Robert?" No answer. His landlord, who runs the snack shop below appeared and told me Fisk had left a few minutes before and headed east. That guy is never around when you need to see him! No doubt reporting from somewhere at the center of the action. Just like in 1982 during the siege of Beirut the only journalists I encounter actually on the streets when things are 'hot' are French reporters from Agence France Press with crash helmets and flak jackets. "Just watch out for snipers", they advised, "Geagea's men killed a woman and her son last night." How they knew it was Geagea's men in the dark, I don't know.

The AFP fellows also reported that Hariri's Al-Mustaqbal newspaper and his radio station Al Sharq were closed by Hezbollah fighters.

The situation as of 1 p.m. May 9th

Hezbollah and their Amal allies control the geography from the airport up to Hamra and around the Corniche sea road at far as the Beirut Port near Phalange HQ in East Beirut. It appears secured including Verdun, Karolol Druze (Bristol Hotel area), Zaendaniyeh, Ras-al-Nabaa, Basta, and Neweiri. They do not appear to be meeting much opposition although some arms are fired periodically.

Hezbollah appears in complete control of West Beirut.

According to the guys manning the Berms on airport road the airport will stayed closed until the 'three conditions' are met i.e the pro-US government pledges to keep its hands off the optic fiber telecommunication network of the Resistance, the Government reinstates head of Airport Security Wafiq Shouqair, and agrees to a dialogue. Until that happens, West Beirut and the Airport will stay closed.

This observer was amazed to see and learn that Hezbollah/Amal also are deployed all over Mt. Lebanon. Approaching a Druze area, near the Kamal Jumblatt Hospital in Choufeit close to 1 p.m. today, I turned down a side road to make a telephone call at one of the phone shops. I was shocked to see approximately 80 heavily armed fighters. "Oh", I thought to myself, "finally I see Jumblatt's militia." As I pulled up to the phone store several fighters approached my motorcycle—which is well known in Dahiyeh. "Habibee!", one young man called as he put his free arm around me. Turns out he is a neighbor of mine from Harek Hreik. "What are you doing here with PSP (Druze militia?)", I lamely ask. "No, no, we are all Hezbollah and Amal here!"

How is that possible in Jumblatt territory? "Khalas, there is no Jumblatt territory! We and our friends are all throughout the mountains. We are ready to fight both the Zionists and anyone else who wants to fight us. But we are told that in four or five days there may be a solution without violence." Thinking the kid might be hungry and homesick for our 'hood', I offered him a sandwich I purchased from our neighborhood Halifee Restaurant. He declines and points toward a stack of boxed supplies, presumably including military rations. The four or five day estimation of stalemate and status quo I was to hear several times today from various Hezbollah and Amal military leaders.

Riding around West Beirut from roughly 8:30 to close to one pm one sees mainly Hezbollah and Amal. Around Hariri's mansion, the Quoreitim which was hit by an RPG-- there is an assortment of fighters who appear to be "contractors". There was a gun battle around 10:30 am near it. Some of Hariri's guys expressed disgust that some of their fellow Mustaqbal militiamen surrendered to Hezbollah without a fight and also told of their contempt with about 60 or more "fighters" who came down as 'reinforcements' from North Lebanon to receive $400 monthly payments for "security work". Apparently when the young men arrived yesterday day they were informed by Hariri people that they would be fighters. As one told a local TV station, "That is not our job. I am not a fighter and I am not going to fight Hezbollah!" This morning those who did not leave last night are heading north this morning.

Little sign of the Lebanese army except by Lina's Restaurant near Bliss St. in front of AUB and below AUB. Others are laying low under awnings of some Hamra shops. I am told they are near the port and staying out of deep Hamra.

Virtually all shops in Hamra are shuttered.

After a while, one is able to distinguish in Hamra the difference between Amal and Hezbollah fighters from a block away. The former tend to be smaller, more thin, randomly dressed and sometimes hooded, a bit unkempt, fun-loving and happy to pose for photos and joke. Hezbollah by contrast are polite but all business with an obvious command structure and a tested professionalism. Several this morning look surprised at seeing someone riding around the area and advised: "Please go to your home. We don't know what will happen".

As in the July 2006 war, one gets the impression that Hezbollah fighters prefer to depend on each other and fight in small groups and not hang around with Palestinians, Marxists etc. or even Amal fighters in close proximity. (There are no Palestinians to my knowledge involved in the current 'situation').

Around 10:30 am I came upon some fighters who said they were from the Syrian Social Nationalist Party. (Frankly I had not realized they were still around). They appeared to keep to themselves.

Hezbollah guys' attitude is sort of: "Excuse us but could you take up positions a little distance from us, maybe down over there somewhere?" The message is clear: "Look, we know what we are doing and we are not sure that you do. You can endanger us by hanging around us. We would be grateful if you would do your thing somewhere removed from our location!"

Jumblatt has not just been humiliated in the mountains but also in his Beirut residence at Clemenceau near AUB. When I drove by en route to Hamra Street I saw about 75 fighters outside his home. I was surprised to learn they were not Jumblatt's protectors but once more Hezbollah/Amal. "Maybe he will invite us to lunch. We have orders not to harm him." I was later to learn that the Army rescued Jumblatt around 11:30 am, and he is said to be rethinking his options. Hassan Nasrallah was tough on Jumblatt at his news conference yesterday and predicted that Jumblatt would switch sides yet again if Hezbollah would pay the price. The young men showed me some of the weapons they collected from what was said to be surrendering or fleeing Hariri mercenaries.

Word on the Street near Saad Hariri's house is that Geagea may attempt a coup and take the leadership of March 14 for a return of the Lebanese Forces and Kateib. This I find difficult to believe but during this period the rumors are flying like 20th floor broadcast confetti on a windy day!

Tentative Conclusion

It is difficult to avoid the tentative conclusion as of the moment that Hezbollah owns Lebanon and will not be dislodged by force. Again they insist that all they want is a fair share of the Government and have no interest in "owning" Lebanon. They just are not willing to accept interference with their Resistance activities against Israel especially when they see a Zionist and Bush administration project behind recent events.

While Michael Young, opinion editor of Beirut's Daily Star and one of Lebanon's best political analysts argues today that Hezbollah wants a Shia state within the Lebanese State, Hezbollah denies this.

It appears in order to calm the atmosphere in Lebanon right now and remove the berms of July 2006 rubble blocking the airport road as well as the evacuation of fighters from West Beirut and the Mountains, the Bush administration must order the reversal of Monday's Lebanese Cabinet decisions. It is widely believed that they ordered them and are responsible to reverse them and to accept a dialogue with the Opposition.

Lebanon and the region awaits Bush's move.

Lebanon on the Brink

Blindsided Hezbollah mulls its response

Franklin Lamb,
Outside Beirut's closed Airport

"The question is no longer why, for the answer has become clear. However, what is the secret behind the timing of this? What is being prepared for the future stage and which coincides with US President George Bush's tour of the region? Has internal dialogue gone without return, and if it takes place, then what is its agenda? What will Hezbollah and the opposition do to face the new challenges?"

-- Hezbollah Deputy Secretary General Naim Qassim during a just completed May 8, 2008 interview

Hezbollah sources concede that they were taken by surprise and some were shocked by the intense, incendiary bombardment of the last few days by pro-government operatives. As Hezbollah studies 'the situation' and how to respond this beautiful spring Beirut morning, there is a real danger things may rapidly spiral out of control.

Yesterday started off peacefully enough, with a strike called by the General Federation of Labor Unions (GFLU) in Lebanon represented by the General Labor Union. The strike was supported by Hezbollah to protest the Governments failure to adopt what the Union considers a living wage of $600. Currently the minimum wage in Lebanon is approximately $200 per month. The Strike continues for the second day but tensions are escalating and Beirut's airport remains closed by anti-Government demonstrators. Beirut's main roads are intermittently blocked, the streets virtually empty and the town largely locked down as sporadic violence and stone-throwing continue.

The region awaits this evening's news conference, his first since July 12th 2006, the first day of the last war, during which Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah is expected to give an indication of Lebanon's immediate future.

"Stay inside today, Dr. Lamb! Do not go outside!", this observer's friend, Hussein Chokr from Nabysheet in the Western Bekaa Valley ordered by telephone at the crack of dawn this morning. "Abu Mohammad", as he prefers to be called (out of respect for his eldest son) was in Montreal, Canada when he lost his wife Khadija, 43 (a full time mother for five children, and loving wife, while he arranged for them to immigrate to Canada. Khadija single handedly raised the children as mother and father in his absence.

Their beautiful sons Mohammad, 22 (who had just become a lawyer graduating first in his class); Bilal, 19 (a first year university accounting student, known in his community for his computer skills); Talal, 17 (a gifted artist who was planning for the first public exhibition of his art in Canada (some of which can be seen at www.majzarat-al-nabysheet.org) and Yassin, 15 (who had just received a full tuition scholarship), were all murdered at 7:10 am on July 19, 2006.

This happened when the Israeli air force "erred" and launched a US MK-83 1000 lb. bomb, guided by a Raytheon JDAM (joint direct attack munition) system and blew up their home. The boys' sister Bushra miraculously survived as she slept with her mother in the third floor bedroom and was later dug out from the rubble with serious injuries for which she continues to receive intensive care.

No one in the Chokr family, building or immediate neighborhood, according to villagers, had any connection to any element of the Lebanese Resistance. Abu Mohammad's family, like himself, and many in Lebanon, were non-political.

The Israeli act was quite simply one more war crime.

How Hezbollah was ambushed

The continuing and intense anti-Hezbollah barrage started last week in rat-a-tat fashion. It continues to intensify this morning with a significant number of Lebanon's politicians, religious leaders and other partisans raising a cacophony with new charges. Conspiracy theories, taunts, threats and provocations continue, the stone throwing on some streets, as commentators offer myriad analyses of "the implementation of suspicious schemes" as Beirut's An Nahar noted.

The hot war prospects not looking so great recently, it is widely believed in Lebanon that the decision was taken following David Welch's recent visit here for an intense cold war assault against Hezbollah and we are now witnessing its implementation. Some locals are calling it a "hot air cold war" as a barrage of accusations is fired across Dahiyeh from several directions.

Druze Leader Walid Jumblatt, led off against Hezbollah last weekend, followed rapidly by the Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea.

Items:

• Hezbollah is spying on the airport! Jumblatt announces. "They are monitoring runway 1-7 with cameras on top of Jihad al Bina packing crates in order to assassinate or kidnap their opponents along airport road which runs through Shia neighborhoods".

Swoi habibee! (Easy, sweetheart) Walid. "The containers to hide the cameras," said Jihad al Bina Director Qassim Allaq, "are owned by the organization (Jihad al Bina construction company) and have been in place for the past 20 years, so why hasn't anyone asked about them in the past?"

"These containers," Allaq continued, "are our property and have been in place for more than 20 years. There are cameras everywhere around the place for security. The land on which the containers are placed is the property of the organization (Jihad al Bina)…why hasn't the media spoken about the containers before? Why haven't anyone of the officials asked us about them in the past?"

• "The Iranians are spying on my house!", Geagea announced within hours. Actually three teenage students may indeed have watched Geagea's mistress leave his house just minutes before Samir's wife returned. The students said they were following the popular tourist route called "the Jesus Trail" and got off the right road. A definite violation of the redline because Mrs. Geagea, who represents the Phalangist Lebanese Forces in Parliament has a fiery temper! One wag joked that maybe Iran put Geagea, who still may be obliged to answer for the disappearance of the four Iranian diplomats in l983 who it is claimed were kidnapped by his forces, "in the doghouse again!"

• Within minutes, Israel Defense Minister Barak called in reporters to go on the record and repeated David Welch's comment that the Lebanese will have a 'hot summer' and that the local economy will tank again as tourists stay away and that Hezbollah can destroy Israel's nuclear faculty at Dimona.

• The next day it was announced that the Saudi Government pledges "to spend their whole treasury if that is what it takes to 'save Lebanon' (and their business interests i.e. Solideire, hotels, banks and real estate) as they reportedly increase dramatically aid to all Lebanese Christians who will oppose General Aoun and his entente cordial with Hezbollah.

• A Pro-Government Muslim group verbally attacked Hezbollah, without offering any evidence to support its claim saying "What Hezbollah is doing as part of its expansion policy is setting up armed barracks inside residential apartment buildings along the coast of Iqlim (Kharroub) and its entrances for dubious goals – one of which could be to control the international highway that links Beirut with Sidon and the rest of the south," said a statement issued after a meeting between the two groups at the house of MP Mohammed Hajjar.

• On May 6 pro Siniora MP Atef Majdalani accused Hezbollah of shifting to civil strife with the objective of declaring a breakaway state.

• A couple of hours later, Geagea again: "Hezbollah is another Mahdi Army militia planning on fighting the government in the Beirut alleys."

• Last night the Phalangist Voice of Lebanon radio said Hezbollah members were dressed up in police uniforms and penetrating districts of Beirut controlled by their rivals of the Mustaqbal movement.

• Within minutes a government source also said Hezbollah was massing gunmen in downtown Beirut, sparking fears of a possible attack against Prime Minister's Siniora's private office.

• A statement was issued from Saad Hariri's office on behalf of the March 14 group which accused Iranian ambassador to Lebanon Mohammad Reza Shibani of becoming a "high commissioner" entrusted with overseeing the creation of the Hizbullah state.

• Geagea again: "Hezbollah is buying up Mt. Lebanon and West Beirut real estate to disperse their security assets and build 'a state within a state!"

• Jumblatt again: Hezbollah has set up a separate optic cable telephone communication system near Saida to link the Shia communities.

This "telephone system" item did get some significant public attention in Lebanon but not for the reason Jumblatt had hoped. Not many Lebanese are against Hezbollah creating another "resistance tool" against Israel. During the July 2006 war Israel messed with Lebanon's phone system sending scare messages and jamming the phones in the south, but could not penetrate Hezbollah communications. What fascinated the general public here is the fact that at nearly 49 cents per minute Lebanon's phones rates may be about the most expensive in the world with terrible reception—plus bugged by Israel and others, tens of thousands across Lebanon mistakenly believing they could sign up with "Hezmobile, Inc" phone service with cheap rates and better reception were at first delighted and then disappointed when they learned the system was only for military communications and in no way will compete with the regular miserable phone system.

"We were hoping we could stop paying off the warlords each time we make or receive a call", one couple said wistfully.

And so it has been going these past several days.

It has been a "Hezbollah this, Hezbollah that, Hezbollah can do no right" campaign thought by many observers here to have been planned and launched in Washington. "The best defense is an aggressive offense" Feltman and Welch tutored the March 14th Deputy Nayla Mouwad according to her report of her recent consultation in Washington as they prepare to receive the Maronite Patriarch Sfeir the 6th of the recent stable to strut into Washington to receive their "briefings".

Things came to a head on May 5th when the Cabinet decided to move to shut down the Hezbollah communication system and fire Shafiq Shuqeir the Security head at Beirut's Airport who is believed to be a Hezbollah supporter.

Of all the provocations this past couple of weeks, one of the most bizarre involved a guest of Walid Jumblatt, the arch Zionist French Deputy Karim Pakzad invited to a Conference here by the Druze leader. The Deputy's claimed "kidnapping" and interrogation caught the attention of journalists and researchers in Lebanon who are familiar with Hezbollah's highly efficient Media Relations Office and Hezbollah's security concerns.

It wasn't just that the Deputy set out to take photos in secure areas without permission, or how he appeared to exaggerate what had actually occurred, as he repeatedly explained, more dramatically with each telling, that he was "kidnapped, blindfolded, held for four hours and interrogated by Hezbollah in a secret location." Or even the well prepared news conference with no fewer that 22 microphones which Jumblatt laid on to announce "this international crime" to the world which every Zionist and US neocon media and Internet outlet dutifully hyped as the story which grew direr at each retelling.

What was stranger was that everyone Karim was hosted by, just like every researcher and journalist in Lebanon knows the rules and they are simple and reasonable. Because of decades of pervasive Israeli spys metastasizing in Lebanon and especially areas where many in the Lebanese Resistance live and work, visitors are ask to drop by Hezbollah's Media Relations Office and obtain a permit so the neighborhood watch people will not inquire of them who they are and why they are photographing in security areas.

The same precautions are taken in most sensitive areas these days. Jumblatt's and Geagea's area also take security precautions. Try photographing in Hamra near Saad Hariri's Quiritum offices or around Muerab or near Jumblatt's Mukhtara area and learn how quickly security personnel will approach.

When the French Deputy is in Washington he might want to test US sensitivity to security and try to walk around the Pentagon, CIA headquarters, inside the M Street Naval Annex, enter the ground on Observatory Road of the Vice Presidents acreage, or dozens of other locations and start snapping photos without permission.

The evidence strongly suggests this and many of the 'incidents' recently were staged to provoke Hezbollah into a reaction that has so far failed through various violent incident designed to achieve the same end. That effort continues today in Beirut as event unfold.

Americans who live in and frequent Dahiyeh comment on how peaceful and safe it is. One can walk or jog around these neighborhoods at 3 am without any fear of being accosted. One visiting journalist from Washington explained:

"I live almost exactly half way between the White House and the US Capitol (less than one mile between the two) there are no fewer than 9 police forces, ranging from the Capitol Police to the DC Police to the Executive Protective Brand and others assigned to secure our neighborhood. No chance I would wander around at 3 am on my street out of fear of being mugged or held up by someone high on drugs or looking for cash. There is no comparison between the security in DC where all you see are cops and here when you hardly notice any security".

Last July, former American Ambassador to Lebanon Robert Dillon, leading a Washington based Council for the National Interest (CNI) delegation met with Hezbollah and later decided to have lunch in their neighborhood of Haret Hreik at the popular Halefee Restaurant, in fact, near where Karim was taking photos.

After dining on Falafel and Shawarma the American Ambassador and a few of his group decided to take a walk and observe some of the hundreds of buildings bombed during the July 2006 war.

As the group meandered toward the Bir Abed area and approached what is known locally as "Security Square", a young lady in the American group starting taking pictures. The group had not visited the Hezbollah Media Office for a permit or arranged for a guide because their visit was spur of the moment and it was a Sunday afternoon. After a few photos were taken the group made a quick collective decision not to take more photos out of respect for the community and its security concerns. The CNI delegation young lady put away her camera. Within probably 45 seconds of her putting her camera in her purse, as the delegation continued its trek through the devastation, a young man with a walkie talkie appeared on a small "jog" motor scooter from one direction and seconds later another arrived from the opposite direction. It took five minutes of polite conversation to assure all that henceforth the rules would be followed. Sometimes Neighborhood Watch Hezbollah security guys will ask to quickly review recent photos taken. One imagines that if there were suspicious photos of "sensitive buildings" further inquiries would be made. In the present case no request to see the photos were made perhaps because the group were very obviously benign tourists. As the CNI group continued their walk the young lady said "they sure were polite and so apologetic for having to ask us not to take photos without permission. They were sweet. It's their neighborhood. I am glad that they try to protect it."

The French Deputy's 'kidnapping' hoax was clearly meant to create an international incident out of something that was commonplace and could have been avoided if the Deputy had kept his cool and not become antagonistic when first approached by Neighborhood Watch.

This observer is not aware what was in the French Deputy's camera that led to a little more attention from Neighborhood Watch than usual. Perhaps he will share them with us on YouTube.

Franklin Lamb can be reached on fplamb@gmail.com
Mr. Chokr can be reached at: bekaa_garden@yahoo.com

See also:

• Spectre of war returns to haunt Lebanon by Nicholas Blanford
• Lebanon descends into chaos as rival leaders order general strike by Robert Fisk
• A Cell Phone Civil War in Lebanon by Nicholas Blanford

Bush to Nasrallah:

An Offer Hezbollah Cannot Refuse?

Part II: Why the Bush administration wants to negotiate now with Hezbollah

Franklin Lamb,
Dahiyeh

"These fools do not learn from their past mistakes. When they withdrew from Lebanon, they continued to occupy the Shebaa Farms and kept our brothers in custody. Had they released them when they left Lebanon, there would not now be a 'prisoner issue' between Lebanon and the enemy. They opened the door for us."
-- Hassan Nasrallah, January 2004, during a welcome home ceremony for Lebanese and Arab detainees as a result of a Hezbollah-Israel swap.

Creating the proper atmosphere to do 'business'

As discussed below, and contrary to conventional wisdom, the Bush administration is prepared to concede that Hezbollah keep its weapons. Even though it encourages its marionettes to foment this issue, and does so itself publicly, the Bush Administration knows that Hezbollah is not going to disarm until the Question of Palestine is settled to the satisfaction of the Palestinians. Yet it feels that focusing on Hezbollah's militia is still a good pre-negotiation bargaining chip.

The word 'militia' with respect to Hezbollah requires a brief clarification.

The term Hezbollah 'militia' is used by the Bush administration as a substitute for the internationally (except in Israel) accepted term Lebanese Resistance. In private or in front of zionist groups the Bush administration simply refers to 'Hezbollah terrorists' to describe the Lebanese Resistance. The Bush administration has not been able to bring itself to utter the R-word in public. Indeed, the noun Resistance is banned from even the US Embassy Press office here in Beirut ever since former US Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman exclaimed in frustration at last year's Embassy Staff Christmas party (reportedly after a couple of glasses of holiday 'punch'): "even hearing that word gives me gas! ... F—k the Resistance!!", he repeated twice as the Ambassador moved center stage in front of the staff decorated Christmas tree to lead the guests, with his arms raised and keeping time to the music, in the singing of his favorite Carol:

"Old Little Town of Bethlehem".

Those in Lebanon who miss the former US Ambassador may be relieved to know that while Jeffrey did not get the Gulf posting some at the State Department thought he was angling for, he is evidently content to be back in Washington.

As a reward for his three years service in Beirut, Elliot Abrams got him named #2 in the Welch Club, serving directly under David Welch with the new crisp title: Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for the Near Eastern Affairs.

This post puts Feltman on the front line regarding Hezbollah and in close contact with his long time soul mate, Assistant Secretary of State for International Organization Affairs Kristen Silverberg. Silverberg came out this week with more threats for those who may be indicted and brought before the Hariri Tribunal, a cause long championed by Feltman. Kristen emphasized that Secretary of State Rice had pledged that "The court will try the suspects in Hariri's assassination and related crimes." The "related crimes" language was chosen to signal Hezbollah that its suspected activities in the 1980s and 1990s may be fair game for the Tribunal and its leadership could theoretically be indicted and arrest warrants issued. This is a squeeze presumably calculated to make Hezbollah more receptive to 'offers'.

To reinforce this latter point, Samir Geagea carried the identical threat when he briefed the media on his return from Washington on April Fools Day. The tribunal, according to Geagea, "wouldn't just deal with the Hariri assassination, but would also shed light on what has happened in Lebanon in the past 30 years." (Beirut media wags have suggested Geagea may know something about that subject).

Geagea advised the media that he also raised the issue of Lebanese detainees in Israeli jails and "we were surprised by the answer from the State Department that Hezbollah is negotiating with Israel on this issue!" Geagea may not have been aware that Washington was using him in the role of 'good cop' on this issue. The point regarding Hezbollah 'handling that issue' was emphasized to Geagea, according to a Congressional source who attended an Israeli lobby reception for Geagea, in order to signal Hezbollah. The message Geagea unwittingly carried was that the US realizes that on certain issues vital to Lebanon, Hezbollah is best suited to carry the file and that the US respects Hezbollah's competence and, indeed right, to get Lebanon's prisoners released since no one else can do the job. The same source opined "that the US is increasingly inclined to use Hezbollah against Israel and vice versa".

To maintain pressure on Hezbollah, each month US Ambassador to the UN, Zalmay Khalilzad repeats his 'bad cop' tirade against Hezbollah at Turtle Bay. His skit is to demand from the 15-member Security Council, during its monthly meeting on the Middle East that: "Hezbollah must immediately disarm! I would like to underscore our deep concern about the illegal arms transfers across the Syrian-Lebanese border, and in particular claims by Hezbollah that it has replenished its military capacity since the summer 2006 war. Hezbollah must disarm, and it must do so now, in accordance with resolutions 1559 and 1701."

This month Khalilzad was joined with a nearly identical and simultaneous statement by Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barack and, perhaps out of politeness, none of the Security Council members mentioned Israeli violations of UNSC 1701. Not to be eclipsed by Silverberg, Khalilzad then urged member states to "generously support" the Special Tribunal for Lebanon to try suspects in the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

The irony of his strident call to implement all of UNSC Resolutions 1559 and 1701 (which Israel has failed to do) was not lost on the Security Council members given recollections that in 1978 the Israeli army invaded south Lebanon and the Security Council issued Resolution 425 demanding Israel's immediate and unconditional withdrawal form Lebanese territory. Under US pressure the Security Council was paralyzed and for 30 years did nothing to implement the resolution. Nor did the Security Council invoke Chapter Seven of the UN Charter which would have allowed the UN to take military action to enforce 425.

While nothing effective was done to implement SCR 425 for 30 years or for 41 years concerning UNSCR 242 and more than a dozen others, the Bush administration supports the Israeli claim that the matter is now closed. Of course it is not closed and according to 174 countries out of 193 members of the UN whose delegates were polled by students from Columbia University, UNSCR 425 is not fully implemented since Israel still occupies the Lebanese territory of Shebaa Farms and Ghajar village (for survey data please contact ngolebanon@aol.com)

Some UN members point out that it took only seven months for the key provision of UNSC 1559 regarding the withdrawal of Syrian troops and the "disarming of militias" to be implemented under threat of Chapter 7 military action (the next and seventh UNSC monitoring and progress report which will focus on Syria and Hezbollah will be issued on April 28): seven months to implement 1559 in contrast to 30 years for 425 or 41 for 242 both still not implemented. Why? A delegate from China surprised some by providing the short answer: Because 425 and 242 targeted Israel and 1559 favored Israel.

President Bush also does not pass up many opportunities to keep political pressure on the Lebanese Resistance. On the 25th anniversary of the bombing at the US Embassy in Beirut last week he told the world: "The people of Lebanon have spent the better part of three decades living under the threat of violence, assassinations, and other forms of intimidation. Since the Beirut attack, we and citizens of many countries have suffered more attacks at the hands of Hezbollah and other terrorists."

One week before, the strong Zionist supporter of Israel and Islamophobe, MEP Jana Ken of the Liberal Group urged the European Parliament on April 9, 2008 to put "it [Hezbollah] in the list of terrorist organizations in order to contain Hezbollah's influence and its activities and in order to curb its power over the Islamic world." Within hours, US inspired charges were leveled by Bulgaria that Hezbollah has benefited from drug smuggling revenue across from its territories.

Hezbollah's parliamentary bloc, in a memo to the Bulgarian Embassy in Beirut, said the charge made by the Bulgarian parliament's security committee is "totally denied by us." The memo added: "We hope that it is not motivated by Zionist agitation with the aim of hurting the image of resistance movements." It called on "Bulgarian parliamentarians to be more accurate in this respect."

Another "let's squeeze Hezbollah" tactic of the the Bush administration is to periodically issue Anti- Hezbollah Warnings for U.S. Citizens. On an average of every seven months, David Welch, the Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs will try to pressure Hezbollah with yet another Lebanon Travel Warning for U.S. Citizens designed to lead the World to believe that Hezbollah is dangerous for Americans.

The latest is dated April 22 2008 and is directed: "(t)o US citizens in Lebanon as a result of the ongoing political tensions and the threat of attacks against Western interests. This Travel Warning informs U.S. citizens of current safety and security concerns". The US government "continues to strongly urge that Americans defer travel to Lebanon and that American citizens in Lebanon consider leaving immediately or consider carefully the risks of remaining."

The statement says that "Hezbollah has threatened retaliatory actions for the assassination of top Hezbollah commander Imad Mughniyeh who was killed in Syria Feb. 12, 2008." Finally, it warns that "Prominent members of Hezbollah have intimated that they hold the United States partially responsible for Mughniyeh's death, and it is possible that someone may lash out against U.S. interests or persons."

No sooner had he tried to frighten Americans in Lebanon than Welch warned the general public here on 22 April that "Another hot summer awaits the Lebanese after political efforts to settle the Lebanon crisis reached a deadlock, including the Arab League initiative." Welch was quoted at a news conference in Abu Dhabi on Monday, further warning that "Tourism (in Lebanon) is expected to drop due to tensions in the country".

Against this pressure background, what is the Bush offer and why now?

Three reasons for the growing interest in the White House to engage in discussions with Hezbollah.

1. US allies are urging the Bush administration to open dialogue with Hezbollah and efforts to isolate Hezbollah have failed.

British Defense Secretary Des Browne in a newspaper interview published in the March 30, 2008 UK Daily Telegraph agreed with Jonathan Powell, formerly Tony Blair's top adviser, that Hezbollah should be engaged in discussions. The efforts to politically isolate Hezbollah along with Hamas have failed. Just last week the French Embassy in Beirut invited Hezbollah's foreign affairs representative to lunch. President Carter's meetings with Hamas will accelerate the process.

In addition, pro-Hezbollah sentiment is growing in Jordan and Egypt as reflected in legislation introduced in the Jordanian Parliament this week to abrogate the Oct. 26, 1994 Treaty with Israel. While the proposal will not pass this year, the Bush administration is being advised that both Jordan and Egypt will likely abrogate their treaties with Israel following anticipated rebellions against the Abdullah and Mubarak regimes.

Nearly two-thirds of the 27 Countries that make up the European Union are said to believe that it is doubtful whether there really is a viable military option - American, Israeli or combined - for destroying Hezbollah. The Party is too integrated and has support all over Lebanon and the region. Even if there were, the war in Iraq has effectively eliminated it. The American military's strength has been exhausted in Iraq and Afghanistan and it has inadequate force to devote to a particularly dangerous third front. This is perhaps the greatest damage done by the neocon adventure in Iraq, where after five years there is no end in sight. The United States may be stuck in Iraq for years to come, regardless of who the next president is or how many casualties it takes. Israel may end up as the main victim of the Iraq adventure it instigated.

2. 'Essential' Bush administration/Israeli projects have failed in Lebanon.

Neither the Sunni-Shia conflict, the Kleiaat airbase, the Al Qaeda affiliates, a civil war nor the planned and supported July 2006 destruction of Hezbollah has been realized.

A brief comment on one of its projects. The Bush Administration and their Welch Club allies brought al Qaeda elements from Iraq to Lebanon and Syria, starting in 2005, for two purposes. One was to fight Hezbollah and thus weaken Iranian influence in the region and the second was to ignite another Muslim Brotherhood uprising in Syria like the April 1981 attack on the Alawite village of Hama or overthrow the Bashar Assad government.

When Al Qaeda arrived in Lebanon they did what all motivated al Qaeda types do when they arrive in a staging country to organize jihad. They frequented mosques, prayed more than the required five times a day, held late night study and planning sessions, and went shopping. The women shopped at BHV, Spinneys, local shops and the Beirut Mall for baby needs and school supplies and the men went shopping for weapons and fighters. Based on interviews with some who associated with Fatah al Islam during the past 18 months, it appears that many in Lebanon today think they were the good guys in the conflict at Nahr al Bared. Many salafists thought they were coming to Lebanon to fight UNIFIL, perhaps bomb some western and Arab Embassies, try to ignite a war with Israel and generally do what they like to do best.

However, it soon became clear to Fatah al-Islam that they were expected by local pay-masters to fight Hezbollah instead. The salafists demurred because they understood for the first time that they were brought to Lebanon to be used against Syria and Iran. During discussions the main reason they refused to fight Hezbollah was made clear. Most al Qaeda partisans take seriously the Islamic injunction against fighting fellow Muslims unless in self-defense while others feel apostates are fair game. They also admire Hezbollah, who they report has been reaching out to Sunnis, and don't want to fight them, because as one commented: "we are on the same side working in Lebanon to liberate Palestine, so we must not fight each other."

Their analysis is nearly identical to the one just offered on 4/23/08, in an audio message posted on the Internet by Al Qaeda's number two, Ayman al-Zawahiri. Dr. Zawahiri announced that:

"Lebanon will play a pivotal role in the Islamists' fight against the "Crusaders and Jews. Lebanon is a Muslim frontline fort. It will have a pivotal role, God willing, in future battles with the Crusaders and the Jews. I call upon the jihadist generation in Lebanon to prepare to reach Palestine, and to banish the invading Crusader forces which are claimed to be peace keeping forces in Lebanon," he said in reference to the U.N. forces deployed along the borders with Israel. From this observer's impression, they are indeed organizing for that role.

These young people generally appear very modest, clean cut, polite, smart and serious; one imagines, rather like the image of Mohammad Atta to his neighbors in Hamburg. They are less interested in talking about what they say is 'minor jihad' i.e. violently fighting their enemies and prefer to discuss "greater jihad" which is an introspective concept of individual self improvement, becoming a better person by pure thoughts, good deeds, study, and following the teachings of the Koran. In some ways they remind one of Maoists during the Chinese Cultural Revolution period, sitting around discussing the concept of "the new Maoist man", the guidance found in the little Red Book, engaging in self-criticism, inner struggle trying to follow the correct path in life, and the Islamic imperative of self improvement. This is different from the western perception of them as being religious fanatics in the Hagee Christian Zionists mold.

No viable civil war option

Another reason the White House wants to put out 'feelers' to Hezbollah is that it has concluded that it is not likely to be able to ignite a Lebanese Civil war and what was thought by the Welch Club to be perhaps its most promising project, is not going to happen anytime soon.

Even foreign visitors based in Beirut who talk with exhausted and traumatized middle aged former militiamen who did the fighting and killing between 1975 and 1992 sense this. One is struck by how many of these former killers (one fellow confessed to this observer to killing more than 130 men, women and children just because they were Muslims) feel remorse, seek absolution, and speak out against renewed fighting. Many are warning Lebanon's youth not to repeat their mistakes despite some heated galvanizing rhetoric from certain 'leaders'. They want a better life for their children.

During the 15-year Lebanese civil war more than 150,000 were killed. In a civil war usually one side wins. There are social, political, economic, cultural changes as a result. This did not happen with the Lebanese civil war. Things ended after 17 years of fighting much where they began. There were no winners in Lebanon. Everyone lost. Those who following the Taif agreement first thought they won came to realize that they also lost. Much of Lebanon was destroyed, almost annihilated and it lost its regional position. All the militias committed massacres against other sects and some even against their own. The cliché that "Lebanon was used as a battleground for foreigners to fight their battles" is not accurate. The Lebanese used the willing outsiders to fight their internal battles. Lebanese militias were probably more violent and ruthless than those who gave them arms and money.

Following the war, rather than create a South African style Truth and Reconciliation Commission, the instigators of the civil war--many of whom are still 'leaders' today--gave themselves a blanket amnesty. Some continue to agitate on the same issues with the same self-evident and self-righteous 'truths' that festered 30 years ago. Few in their confessions have confidence anymore in these warlords and prefer that they just keep quiet.

"We fought for nothing and we lost everything. Lebanon went mad and we killed because others were not like us. Show me a family in Lebanon who did not lose a loved one! We have nothing but our sorrow and tears to show for it. We were betrayed and cheated by those we killed and died for. Our young people must not become the next lost generation or the next war generation!" a sandwich shop owner in Alay commented.

With these widespread sentiments in Lebanon today it is tough to ignite internal war, although 'incidents' require only a few thousand dollars. Moreover, a civil war would require Hezbollah's involvement and that organization has repeatedly made it clear it will not fight fellow Lebanese. "Our weapons are for use against Israel and not for use against our countrymen", is a commonly heard sentiment from Hezbollah members.

When Hezbollah took many casualties during fights with Amal in the late 1980s ("a very black page is Shia history" according to one Hezbollah source), rather than engage in all-out war against their fellow Lebanese today they will take casualties again without answering-- 'a thousand casualties' Hasan Nasrallah stated-- if necessary to keep the peace. (NB. Regarding clashes with Amal eighteen years ago, Hezbollah did finally lose patience and crushed Amal in south Beirut and the intra-Shia conflict ended with an agreement on November 9, 1990).

The Lebanese Association for Human Rights recently organized events for the April 13 anniversary of the 1975 Ain al-Rummaneh killing of 27 passengers on a Palestinian bus; a massacre that ignited, within hours, the Lebanese civil war. "We want those who lived the civil war to tell the younger ones of what awaits them if a new conflict erupts," Association Member Ziad Khaled 32, stated. "We also want to forewarn our politicians that we won't follow them into a new war."

3. A Regional War is unlikely

Despite the media hype these days, many Middle East analysts as well as the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, chaired by former presidential candidate Joe Biden (D-Del), consider that the Bush administration and Israel are not likely to ignite a regional war, however tempting that may be, before Bush leaves office.

Someone on Capitol Hill put it bluntly: "If Barack Obama wins, no regional war. If John McCain ("bomb, bomb, bomb Iran!") wins, move to Alaska 'cause all hell may break loose."

The Committee Staff thinking mirrors that of Middle East specialists that the unpredictability factor and the potential very high cost create a strong deterrence. According to one Committee source, "It's like the old MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction) Doctrine during the Cold War. MAD actually kept the peace. It worked because the parties knew they would lose too much. In this region it is the fear in Israel and Washington that will keep the peace for the foreseeable future. We do not see a war coming either inside Lebanon or in the Region. Of course I could be wrong!"

Another Committee source emailed:

"The Russians disagree with our analysis. Russian military intelligence services remind us that heightened U.S. military preparations for both an air and ground operation against Iran with our Naval presence in the Persian Gulf have reached the level that existed before the March 2003 invasion of Iraq and this suggests that Bush (Cheney) may act in the next few months and leave the mess for the next administration."

Indeed, General Leonid Ivashov, vice president of the Academy of Geopolitical Sciences did claim last week that the Pentagon is looking for a way to deliver a strike against Iran "that would enable the Americans to bring the country to its knees at minimal cost." The USS John C. Stennis, with a crew of 3,200 and around 80 fixed-wing aircraft, including F/A-18 Hornet and Superhornet fighter-bombers, eight support ships and four nuclear submarines are being deployed in the Gulf, where a similar group led by the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower has been based since December 2006, and recently fitted with Patriot anti-missile systems.

Next: Part III: the CIA and the Pentagon weigh in

Read Part One

Part III: The CIA and the Pentagon weigh in
Part IV: Bait, Hook and Switch: the US offer and the quid pro quo
Part V: Hezbollah’s part of the bargain

Ditching the 'Victor' of Nahr el Bared for "Dr Death"?

Franklin Lamb,
Beirut

Barack v. Hillary isn't the only Presidential election game in Washington these days. There is also the Samir v. Walid v. Michel (as in Geagea, Jumblatt and Suleiman) campaign underway as each seek through direct contact and surrogates, the US imprimatur in their quests to lead Lebanon.

This week it appears that Walid's support is dropping faster than Hillary's and Suleiman may end up like Fred Thompson ("failed to live up to expectations and not enough fire in the belly for the job") and Geagea is skyrocketing faster than Barack did in February.

How so?

Despite months of heaping praises on Head of the Lebanese Army General Michel Suleiman, the Bush Administration has pretty much decided to dump the General, for reasons noted below by US Congressional sources.

Following successful visits by Druze leader Walid Jumblatt over the winter, the Bush administration is currently hosting and vetting long-shot candidate Dr. Samir Farid Geagea. He is the leader of the Lebanese Forces (the successor to Bashir Gemayel's Kateib Phalange Militia founded by warlord Pierre Gemayel following his Berlin 'fascist epiphany' and declaration that "Lebanon needs some order like in Germany." Robert Fisk instructs us that Pierre was never really the same when he returned to Beirut following Hitler's near perfect showcase 1936 Berlin Olympics. Near perfect because Hitler did not plan on African-American James Cleveland Owens "Jesse" winning four gold medals in the 100m, 200m, long jump and the 4X 100m relay, a feat never equaled until Carl Lewis won gold medals in the same events at the 1984 Summer Olympics.

Despite Geagea's public image problem he is looking more promising these days (a photo showing him with his black piercing eyes and moustache with Sharon's man during the Sabra-Shatila massacre, Elie Hobeika—a very evil looking duo if ever there was one—more realistic one imagines than DreamWorks studio could create, so scary in fact that during Halloween in Lebanon one can find this particularly haunting photo on certain Palestinian Camp utility poles to scare young children).

Why Geagea's rise and the Jumblatt and Suleiman slippage?

The Current Handicap

I. General and Head of the Lebanese Armed Forces, Michel Suleiman

David Welch, who met with Geagea on March 12, and other administration officials, have reportedly given up on Lebanese Army Chief Michel Suleiman, not due so much to the now 16th postponement of his Presidential election but because Suleiman is becoming 'shop worn' plus an increasing 'buyers remorse'.

The Welch Club (a number of US neocons, Cheney, Saudi Arabia, Jordan) has lost confidence in him, according to Hill sources, and they no longer trust the General to do their bidding. Suleiman has remained dignified and has tried to walk a tight rope above 'the situation' in Lebanon including a pool of very hungry political crocodiles, as best he could. The General has respectfully met plebeians and patriarchs and sultans and salafists and has for months listened attentively and politely to the concerns of each while pledging "to put Lebanon first". That oft-heard statement is susceptible to various unsettling interpretations in Lebanon and has given pause to more than one faction. "He's too comfortable with Hezbollah and Syria", is what Congressional Staff Members on no fewer than 11 Congressional committees and subcommittees dealing with foreign policy, the Middle East, Appropriations, Armed services and Intelligence are being told as part of the 'talking points' flowing in and out of Congressional offices. Many in Congress think there will be no President of Lebanon until next year at the earliest—ten months away. Suleiman, some think, may decide to remain with his army where life is more stable.

II. Walid Jumblatt (Progressive Socialist Party—actually its neither progressive nor socialist and more a fraternity/tribe than a political party)

"Walid is over-qualified for the job", some in Washington say as they prepare to renege on earlier pledges to him. Think Georgia Congressman John Lewis' "I am 1000% for Hilary"---before he dumped her for Obama a couple of week ago).

Walid could maybe overcome the problem that his IQ is said to be 'off the charts', which itself makes Washington nervous, but he has other more serious problems.

One significant legal barrier for Jumblatt is the fact that the President of Lebanon currently must be a Maronite Christian—but given the right circumstances the 'National Pact' could theoretically be changed as the Lebanese Constitution Article 45 must be in order to allow General Suleiman to be chosen President since it requires a the two-year period out of the Army for the General before he could be President. But that feat would not be easy.

Walid's fatal step for serious consideration to lead Lebanon was his comment last week that the Jerusalem attack on the Jewish Religious Institution, which killed 8 students, was a predictable reaction to the Israeli terrorism in Gaza. In Washington that is roughly the equivalent of "Client #9" doing Miss Kristen. That verbal act by Jumblatt sunk him and the previously admiring Israel lobby dropped him like a bad habit.

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) is now aiding the Geagea effort while Walid, long a favorite at the Bush White House especially with Cheney, has been losing ground faster than 'front runner' Rudy Giuliani imploded.

As if all this were not enough, as one Congressional Staffer reported to the Hill Rag last month "we have an 'M Problem with both Geagea and Jumblatt in our efforts to get Lebanon a suitable President. With Geagea it's M for Murder, as in four murder convictions (!) but with Jumblatt its M for Mental. Who would you choose?"

The buzz in Washington is that with Jumblatt, according to the same Hill Staffer, "you never know where he is coming from or when the Druze leader may show up wide-eyed from smoking something and talking crazy Voodoo or Zen shit, or whatever".

A staffer on the House Judiciary Committee explained that Jumblatt "flip flops more than Romney did and next week he may do another deal with Syria and decide Nasrallah is his channeled long lost brother from a previous life and send his militia to train with Hezbollah for Christ's sake! I am not joking. During his last visit to Washington one of his aids actually asked if Jumblatt could meet Shirley MacLaine!"

III. Dr. Samir Farid Geagea

By any stretch of the imagination, 30 months ago Samir Geagea was not anyone's (except perhaps his own) candidate for the Presidency of Lebanon.

For 11 years until his July 26, 2005 release, he had been in a 6' X 8' dank cell, serving multiple death sentences converted to life with hard labor. It was a hard time. Unlike Nelson Mandela during his 27 years in prison, Geagea was not permitted to send or receive mail, to read books or periodicals containing political information about Lebanon, watch television or listen to the radio. He was handcuffed and blindfolded whenever taken out of his cell for exercise or brief visits with relatives and lawyers under the watchful eye of monitors. His guards were forbidden to converse with him beyond simple commands.

Geagea's imprisonment was because he was convicted of murdering 6 people – only a small portion of his long list of war crimes according to his enemies.

His convictions included:

• the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister, Mr. Rachid Karami
• assassination of a former leading figure in the Lebanese Forces militia, Elias Zayek
• assassination of Christian leader Dany Chamoun with his wife and two young children (ages 5 and 7)
• assassination attempt against Deputy Prime Minister/Minister of the Interior Michel Murr

Geagea was released as a result of Amnesty legislation that also freed some Al Qaeda types.

Some in Lebanon feel he should never have been freed but his many supporters, including 170,000 who signed a Petition for his release, disagree.

They argue that all the legal files and proceedings brought against him and the Lebanese Forces are without foundation. They proclaimed during his incarceration on the Lebanese Forces website: "Samir Geagea is today, the only political prisoner in Lebanon. His crime is that of exercising his democratic rights. Samir Geagea, current leader of the Lebanese Forces. The only person in the history of our country who was given a choice to either leave Lebanon and never come back or to go to prison. ... They [the Syrian-controlled Lebanese government including the Courts and most of the Judges at the time of Geagea's convictions] thought they could accuse him and everyone would believe their lies. They thought wrong and here is the world condemning them, the Australian courts condemned them for fabricating evidence; the United Nations Human Rights Committees condemned them; and all those people who value the rule of law condemned them. Samir Geagea is an example of a man who is unselfishly devoted to a significant cause. He is a true model for all who believe in a just and reconciled Lebanon".

Many consider Geagea a true Lebanese Patriot and many of his quotes are distributed around Christian areas:

• "I would prefer to remain in prison for another 20 years than bargain my beliefs for freedom."
  - November 2004, speaking to a delegation from the Human Rights Committee of the Lebanese Parliament
• "I have spent 11 horrific years in solitary confinement in a 6-square-meter dungeon three floors underground without sunlight or fresh air. But I endured my hardships because I was merely living my convictions."
  - 26 July 2005, on his release.

This week, Geagea had successful meetings with US National Security Advisor Steven Hadley who told Geagea that America was strongly committed to helping the Lebanese build an independent state, as the An-Nahar daily quoted a White House source as saying on Tuesday.

"The US is still strongly committed to help the Lebanese people fulfill their dream of building a free, independent and prosperous state," Hadley told Geagea during their discussion of the kind of military aid Lebanon needs. Geagea also met with Assistant to Vice President Cheney for National Security Affairs John Hannah and US Secretary of State Rice and one of her undersecretaries David Welch.

According to An-Nahar's correspondent in Washington, the unusually high level Geagea meetings "reflect US appraisal of him as a major March 14 movement leader". And they wanted to discuss with him ways to help the Lebanese government achieve such goals and US worries of "continuous efforts" by Syria and Hezbollah to "undermine" Premier Fouad Siniora's Cabinet.

Geagea has the 'correct' position on key issues and shares Bush administration views on practically every question. Regarding Shebaa Farms (a phony issue his delegation is claiming), disarming the Resistance (the sooner the better), the Hariri Tribunal (full steam ahead) the Damascus Arab League Conference (not until Lebanon has a President), shipping Lebanon's Palestinians out of Lebanon (ASAP-ABI--As Soon As Possible-Anywhere But Israel!) and not to be naturalized in Lebanon. Finally, but not least, Geagea, just like the former leader of his militia, the murdered Bashir Gemayel, is thought to be Israel's choice to lead Lebanon.

Geagea's people are still testing the water in Washington as they hope to meet President Bush in the coming days. Publicly Geagea's delegation still praises General Suleiman but without enthusiasm: "Our choice cannot be other than the primary choice, which is the Lebanese state and its institutions. As for the means to build this state and run it, the March 14 Forces will declare any decision we make at the appropriate time," Geagea's group told the Washington Press Corp on March 11.

Geagea is stressing in Washington that the Lebanese crisis "remains in the hands of the Lebanese, despite the fact that some factions are linked to other (foreign) powers….we are not looking for a western settlement to our cause. We have the settlement. We are looking for backing from all states of the world. We will ask for support even from China."

Geagea's dramatic rehabilitation in Bush administration eyes raised some eyebrows of its own in the House Judiciary Committee (subcommittee on Criminal Justice) when staff members and fans of Amy Winehouse, the British singer complained that she was denied a US Visa after Geagea got his (following years of being denied one). They demanded to know how an otherwise wholesome, drug troubled entertainer in rehab could fairly be denied a visa to come and receive a near record 5 Grammys, when Geagea got a visa in spite of clear and 'iron clad' US regulations forbidding it. But things quieted down and in the end Amy was also OK because Hollywood pressure squeezed the State Department and low and behold the US Embassy in London called her with the good news. But Amy declined it with a polite 'thanks but no thanks' having already made arrangements to appear at the Award's ceremony via satellite.

Geagea's Washington admirers point out that unlike other warlords in Lebanon, Geagea is said to have "an almost puritanical disdain for material concern", as noted by historian Theodor Hanf in his voluminous study of the Lebanese war.

Washington Post correspondent Jonathan C. Randal, who is scathingly critical of Maronite militia leaders in his book on the war, described Geagea as "well-read, thoughtful, and possessed of a revolutionary soul."

When asked to summarize the reason for the apparent Bush administration switch, a legislative aid on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Subcommittee on the Middle East opined with sarcasm:

"There are two politicians in Lebanon who generally speak the truth and can be counted on to keep their word and not sell out. Hassan Nasrallah and Samir Geagea. As you know Nasrallah is not currently the Bush administration candidate."

Another added during the same conference call: "Cheney's people like Geagea because he's been tested. Nobody had the balls to defy Syria in the 1980s and early 90s. Even his pal Hobeika sold out. Geagea survived a brutal incarceration and before being jailed earned the respect of his people. Again, like Nasrallah, he is first of all a Lebanese Patriot. Geagea can't be bought. He is not afraid of Syria, Iran or anyone else. He will play ball with Israel. Lebanon could do a lot worse with what is likely heading its way".

Franklin Lamb is doing research in Lebanon and can be reached at fplamb@gmail.com

En 1976, un an après le début de la guerre, les milices du Front Libanais (regroupant les partis du centre et de droite), autrement dit le conseil de sécurité (milice) kataëb de William Hawi (Parti Kataëb de cheikh Pierre Gemayel), des tigres de Dany Chamoun (noumour, Parti National Libéral de l’ancien président Camille Chamoun), marada de Tony Frangié (Courant Marada du président Sleiman Frangié), des gardiens du cèdre d’Etienne Sakr alias Abou Arz (Mouvement National Libanais) et tanzim de Fawzi Mahfouz alias Abou Roy (Mouvement de la Résistance Libanaise) s’entendirent pour former le Conseil de Commandement des Forces Libanaises afin de coordonner leur action.

Malgré cela, le manque de coordination entre ces milices provoqua la mort de plusieurs combattants au camp palestinien de Tel el-Zaatar. William Hawi réussit à établir une meilleure coordination qui permit aux milices du Front Libanais (et les quelques miliciens de Maroun Khoury alias Bach Maroun issus du Bloc National de Raymond Eddé, fils aîné de l’ancien président Emile Eddé) de remporter la bataille dans laquelle il tomba en martyr.

Bachir Gemayel, fils de cheikh Pierre Gemayel, chef des Amis Kataëb et des Dirty Dozen issus des Bejin ou « BG »), prit la suite de William Hawi à la tête de la milice kataëb et du Conseil de Commandement des Forces Libanaises. Dès 1977, les Forces Libanaises (FL) devaient être une structure d’unification mais elles restèrent un organisme de coordination. En effet, les problèmes entre kataëb et marada (appuyés par la Syrie de Hafez el-Assad) et entre kataëb et noumour (appuyés par le second bureau de l’armée libanaise dirigé par Johnny Abdo) ne cessèrent pas mais au contraire, s’intensifièrent. Si le coup d’Ehden (1978) réalisé par les kataëb avait provoqué la mort de Tony Frangié et le départ du Courant Marada du Front Libanais, l’opération Safra (1980) contre les noumour permit à Bachir Gemayel d’unir le « fusil chrétien » par l’intégration de toutes les milices dans un seul corps homogène, les FL et de faire soumettre ses deux rivaux : Dany Chamoun (lequel s’exila) et son frère Amine Gemayel (qui dirigeait une unité kataëb jouissant d’une autonomie au Metn-Nord).

La structure des Forces Libanaises était calquée sur celle de l’armée libanaise pour une meilleure organisation de la Résistance contre les organisations palestiniennes et leurs alliés libanais et contre l’armée syrienne. Les FL étaient organisées ainsi : d’une part, le Conseil de Commandement avec son président, son vice-président et son secrétaire-général et d’autre part, la milice avec son commandant en chef, son chef d’état-major, ses vices-chefs d’état-major, ses chefs de premier (effectifs et ent