Tags » Rationality

Absence of evidence is evidence of absence

The W’s article about Evidence of Absence is confusing. They have an anecdote:

A simple example of evidence of absence: A baker never fails to put finished pies on her windowsill, so if there is no pie on the windowsill, then no finished pies exist.

1,240 more words

Beliefs and aliefs

What does it mean to believe?

This is not supposed to be some Deeply Wise prod to make someone write philosophical accounts of the mystical uniqueness of human consciousness or some such. 685 more words


The Curious Case of Confirmation Bias

With this post begins, I hope, a series of posts on the various kinds of cognitive biases and logical fallacies that human beings are susceptible to, in their reasoning. 673 more words


Bayesian falsification and the strength of a hypothesis

At the end of my post about other ways of looking at probability, I showed you a graph of evidence against probability. This is the relevant graph: 1,657 more words


Agreements, disagreements, and likelihood ratios

The LessWrong community has, as a sort of deeply ingrained instinct/rule, that we should never “agree to disagree” about factual matters. The map is not the territory… 1,570 more words


MIRI paper on logical uncertainty

Talking to raginrayguns again and he mentioned that a month and a half ago, Paul Christiano wrote a paper exactly on the subject of logical uncertainty. 20 more words