The Internet can make us smarter -- or dumber.  It depends on how we use it.  This post examines the euphoria over the Bakken Formation, and how it grew, briefly flowered, and died.  It is a case study, showing the flows through the Internet of information and misinformation.

I.  We start at the beginning.  This paper sparked new interest in the potential oil output of this area:  “Origins and Characteristics of the Basin-Centered Continuous Reservoir Unconventional Oil-Resource Base of the Bakken Source System, Williston Basin”, Leigh Price (1999/2000) — Price estimated the Bakken formation may hold as many as 900 billion barrels of oil. He died in August 2000; the study was never published by the USGS.   Here is a link to the paper. 

Price's paper was both technical and obscure.  For anyone wanting facts about this topic, the North Dakota state website provides a clear statement of the facts: Bakken Formation Reserve Estimates.

As interest in the Bakken formation grew, with drilling of several successful low-output wells, more reports appeared on the Internet. 

II.  Some good:  "The Bakken Trend: Lost Dutchmen Mine of the Oil Patch?", Steven Ward at Seeking Alpha (22 January 2008) -- An excellent description of the history, current work, and prospects of the Bakken Formation.  Ward is an independent oil analyst, formerly with Amoco Oil Company.

III.  Some less so:  "Massive Oil Deposit Could Increase US reserves by 10x", Next Energy News (13 February 2008) -- Excerpt (bold emphasis added):

America is sitting on top of a super massive 200 billion barrel Oil Field that could potentially make America Energy Independent and until now has largely gone unnoticed. Thanks to new technology the Bakken Formation in North Dakota could boost America's Oil reserves by an incredible 10 times, giving western economies the trump card against OPEC's short squeeze on oil supply and making Iranian and Venezuelan threats of disrupted supply irrelevant

IV.  The much-derided mainstream media published an excellent article on this:  “Report on Bakken oil potential expected“, Business Week (7 April 2008)

Now the blogging community had some red meat to chew on!  Which did they focus on?  The wild article by Next Energy, or the boring but factual Business Week story?  The first post I could find was mild.

V.  "The Bakken Formation: How Much Will It Help?", Gail the Actuary, posted at The Oil Drum (23 April 2008) -- An excellent review of what we know, and do not know.

VI.  "Peak Oil Update, 10x increase in US reserves", Russell W. Steele posted at NC Media Watch (8 April 2008) -- A reasonable opening "We have heard a lot about the decline of oil reserves, which are estimates based on current technologies. With new technologies and higher prices, new reserves come on line."  Then he links to the explosive, exaggerated Next Energy News Story.

 But things quickly spun into fantasy-land.

VII.  "North Dakota Discovery - 200 Bn Bbl Of Oil", M. Simon posted at Power and Control (9 April 2008) -- Also posted at Classical Values.  Note the certainty of his opening line.  Only 400 words later, does he give a caution, before ending on a note of euphoric absurdity -- as if low-flow discoveries like this are substantial offsets to the peaking of super-giant fields like Ghawar, Burgan, and Cantarell.

Two hundred billion barrels of oil have been discovered in North Dakota.

... The first report was a quote from New Energy which often gets things wrong. I'd say the Business Week Report is more reliable.  Here is a technique for Mining Oil. I think the peak oil folks got it wrong. As usual. Capitalism beats the fear mongers. Again.

VIII.  Once the story assumed its mature form, the Instapundit linked to it -- posting it in his center ring under his Big Top as "BLACK GOLD. NORTH DAKOTA TEA".  From this foundation, thousands of blog posts flowered.  Note how the Instapundit often prefers links to folks with no background in the subject under discussion.  That is, outside his own professions, of course.  With legal issues he usually links to experts with credentials. 

IX.  The US Geological Survey published their long-awaited National Assessment of Oil and Gas Fact Sheet.  "{An} estimated mean undiscovered volumes of 3.65 billion barrels of oil, 1.85 trillion cubic feet of associated/dissolved natural gas, and 148 million barrels of natural gas liquids in the Bakken Formation."

IX.  Eventually the major media writes realistic descriptions of the situation.  See this nice description of drilling in the Bakken fields: “Dakota Oil Fields of Saudi-Sized Reserves Make Farmers Drillers“, Bloomberg (3 June 2008) — There is a long excerpt in the comment section.

Conclusions

The Internet links us together into a vast cybernetic organism.  As with the forged documents shown on Sixty Minutes, it disseminates information and insights such that the America seems like a village.  But does the Internet serve us as well with complex events that require more expertise?  The mainstream media, for all their faults, does bring experts into the national discussion -- who (at their best) paint issues with some depth.  We see a different dynamic at work as the Internet "processes" recent events in Basra, the "cut cable crisis", and the Bakken Formation.  Here fact takes second place to emotion, expertise to sensationalism.

It need not be like this.  Most bloggers on such serious subjects have good educations.  Bloggers -- we -- can take the extra few minutes to locate good sources, and exercise responsibility for our roles before hitting the enter key.

I believe there are difficult times ahead for America.  The Internet can help us, if we use it wisely.  It just magnifies our abilities, our strengths and weaknesses.

Please share your comments by posting below (brief and relevant, please), or email me at fabmaximus at hotmail dot com (note the spam-protected spelling). 

Here is the full archive of articles about Peak Oil.

Other posts about the Internet:  does it make us smarter or dumber?

1. Will Israel commit suicide? More rumors of a strike at Iran.  (22 December 2007)
2. Three blind men examine the Iraq Elephant  (6 February 2008)
3. Cable Cut Fever grips the conspiracy-hungry fringes of the web  (7 February 2008)
4. Resolution of the Great Submarine Cable Crisis — and some lessons learned  (8 February 2008)
5. What do blogs do for America?  (26 February)
6. The oddity of reports about the Iraq War  (13 March 2008)
7. Will we bomb Iran, now that Admiral Fallon is gone?  (17 March 2008)
8. More post-Fallon overheating: “6 signs the US may be headed for war in Iran”  (18 March 2008)
9. Euphoria about the Bakken Formation  (10 April 2008)
10. The Internet makes us dumber: the Bakken euphoria, a case study  (15 April 2008)

God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,

The courage to change the things I can,

and the Wisdom to know the difference.

The only person you can change is yourself.  You cannot change anyone else.  We have free will all of us.  We can attempt to influence others but if the other person does not want to change then we cannot make them change.  If we have tried to influence, we have asked and the other refuses to change then the best thing that we can do is adapt or decide to distance ourselves from that person.  For example you are a more lenient parent and your spouse is a more strict parent.  Isn't it easier to allow each to parent in your own way then to argue about which way is better?  Children adapt to differing parenting styles.  It is the inconsistency within one parent that is difficult for the child and makes things difficult with that parent.  Remember that the only person you can control is yourself.  To try to control others only leads to anger, disagreements and pain.  Eventually the pain gets to be so much that the relationship becomes destroyed.

Crimes of Physical Violence

940.19(1)-(6) Battery-Simple, Substantial, Aggravated

939.32(1)&(3) Attempted Battery

940.20(1m) Battery to Person Subject to restraining order or Tribal Order

940.21 Mayhem

940.23 Reckless injury

940.24 Injure by Negligent Handling Dangerous Weapon

Crimes of Sexual Violence

940.225(1) First degree sexual assault

940.225(2) Second Degree Sexual Assault

940.225(3) Third Degree Sexual Assault

940.225(3m) Fourth Degree Sexual Assault

Using Coercion & Threats

943.30 Threats to injure or accuse of crime

940.42-45 Intimidation of Victim/Witness

941.23 Carrying Concealed Weapon

946.31 & 939.30 Solicitation to Commit Perjury

Using Intimidation

940.32 Stalking

940.42-45 Intimidation of Victim/Witness

943.14 Criminal tresspass to Dwelling

947.013 Harrassment

941.24 Possession of Switchblade Knife

Using Emotional Abuse

941.30 Recklessly Endangering Safety

943.01 Damage of Property

947.013 Harassment

951.02 Mistreating Animals

Using Isolation

940.30 False Imprisonment

940.305 Taking Hostage

940.31 Kidnapping

943.14 Criminal Trespass to Dwelling

942.05 opening Letters

Minimizing Denying & Blaming

946.41 Resisting or Obstructing an Officer

947.01 Disorderly Conduct

Using Children

940.31 Kidnapping

940.32 Stalking

Ch.948 Crimes Against Children

948.31 Interference with Custody

Using Male Privilege

941.01 Negligent Operation of Vehicle

941.20 Endangering Safety by Use of Dangerous Weapon

931.30 Recklessly Endangering Safety

943.01 Criminal Damage of Property

Using Economic Abuse

943.20 Theft

943.38  Forgery

943.02 Arson

943.10 Burglary

943.32 Robbery

943.39(2) Fraudulent Writings

940.285 Abuse to Vulnerable Adult

The following crimes might fit any of the behaviors listed on the wheel:

Chapter 813 Violation of a restraining order, including foreign orders of protection

939.05 Parties to Crime

939.24 Criminal Recklessness

939.25 Criminal Negligence

939.30 Solicitation

939.31 Conspiracy

939.32 Attempting Crimes

939.46 Coercion

946.49 Bail Jumping

947.01 Disorderly Conduct

940.42-45 Intimidation of Victim/Witness

940.31 Stalking

947.013 Harassment

947.012 Unlawful Use of Telephone

947.0125 Unlawful use of Computerized Communication System

940.285 Abuse of Vulnerable Adult

943.30 Threats to Injure

• Making and/or carrying out threats to do something to hurt her/him
• Threatening to leave her/him
• Threatening to commit suicide
• Threatening to report her/him to welfare
• Making her/him drop charges
• Making her/him do illegal things
• Making up traditions or culture to prove gender superiority
• Using God to control someone

Using Intimidation

• Using gestures, looks,or actions to make someone afraid
• Smashing things
• Destroying her/him property
• Abusing pets
• Displaying weapons

Using Emotional Abuse

• Name calling
•  Saying they/you are crazy
•  Mind games
•  Humiliation
•  Making you feel guilty
• Putting her/him down

Using Isolation

• Putting limits on another persons freedom
•  Limit outside contacts
• Using jealousy to justify actions
• Controlling where he/she goes
• Controlling who he/she speaks to

Minimizing-Denying & Blame

• Making light of the abuse
• Blaming victim for problems
• Not taking him/her concern about the abuse seriously
• Saying the abuses didn't happen
• Shifting responsibility for abusive behavior
• Saying he/she caused it

Using Children

• Making her/him feel guilty about children
• Using the children to relay messages
• Using visitation to harass him/her
• Threatening to take the children away

Using Male Privilege

• Treating her/him like a servant
• Making all the big decisions
• Acting like the "Master of The Castle"
• Being the one to define gender roles

Using Economic Roles

• Preventing her/him from getting and holding a job
• Making him/her ask for money
• Giving her/him an allowance
• Taking her/him money
• Not letting her/him know about or have access to finances