The PiRate Pro Ratings

The NFL version of the PiRate Ratings is not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL version is strictly a statistical formula than could be reproduced by anybody who knew the equations I use to devise the formula.  No subjective data is used.

The formula combines scoring margin, strength of schedule, and early in the season, last year's scoring margin and strength of schedule.  As the season progresses, last year's data decreases to where it has little effect by mid-October. 

The Mean Ratings

Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations.  Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule.  Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents' rushing and passing.  Point values are assigned based on each set of data.  The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970's and 1980's.  The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.

The Bias Ratings

The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings.  The five ratings are not given equal weight.  The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%.  I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.

NFL Previews-Week Six

Oakland (1-3) at New Orleans (2-3)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Dome

PiRate:         New Orleans by 15 

Mean:           New Orleans by 7

Bias:             New Orleans by 10

Vegas:        New Orleans by 7     -285/+245  

Ov/Un:        47

Strategy:     Over 37 in 10-point teaser, Over 34 in 13-point teaser

Oakland has a new coach and is coming off a bye week, whereas New Orleans played Monday night.  How will the Raiders respond?  Also, how much can Darren McFadden play?  These are major issues, and I wouldn't begin to pick a side in this one, even in teasers.

The Saints' defense cannot be counted on to stop enemy offenses for 60 minutes.  Given an extra week to tweak their offense, I expect the Raiders to score at least 17 points and as much as 25 points this week.  New Orleans is in a must-win situation this week, as a 2-4 start probably puts them too far behind in their division to dig themselves out.  Therefore, I tend to believe New Orleans will find a way to win, but I don't feel confident enough to pick them at -285 in a money line selection.  I am confident that Drew Brees can pass for 300 yards and direct the offense to 20 or more points, so teasing the Over is how to play this game.

Cincinnati (0-5) at New York Jets (2-2)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature in the upper 60's

PiRate:         Jets by 9    

Mean:           Jets by 6

Bias:             Jets by 11

Vegas:        Jets by 5½         -240/+200   

Ov/Un:        44½  

Strategy:     Jets -240, Jets +4 ½ in 10-point teaser, Jets +7½ in 13-point teaser

The Jets had a bye last week, while Cincinnati had to play a rough game at Dallas.  The 0-5 Bengals must play on the road again this week with a wounded quarterback.  Even if Carson Palmer plays, he won't be close to 100% effective.  The Jets' defense ranks in the bottom half of the league after giving up 83 points in their previous two contests, but I expect a vast improvement following a week off.  Brett Favre should be at peak performance as well, so I like the Jets to win outright.  5½ points is tricky, so I'll go the money line route in this one. 

Only one thing worries me this week: there are still four NFL teams looking for their first win of the season in week six.  How many times in the past have four teams continued to remain winless six weeks into the season?  The odds are heavily in favor of one or more of those winless teams winning this week. So, the 13-point teaser gives the Jets more than a TD at home, which I fell is quite safe.

Chicago (3-2) at Atlanta (3-2)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

PiRate:         Chicago by 7     

Mean:           Chicago by 5

Bias:             Chicago by 4

Vegas:        Chicago by 3      -145/+135  

Ov/Un:        43½  

Strategy:     Atlanta +3, Atlanta +13 in 10-point teaser, Atlanta +16 in 13-point teaser

Atlanta is the top surprise in the NFC five weeks into the season.  New coach Mike Smith has the Falcons in the playoff hunt and a win in this game might be enough to guarantee the dirty birds a winning season.  The schedule is not that difficult, and at 4-2, it is easy to see 9-7 or even better for this team.

Chicago finds itself alone in first in the old black and blue division.  The Bears are not that far from being 5-0, losing by three at Carolina and in overtime by three to Tampa Bay. 

Teams that play consecutive road games and win the first one usually bounce some in the second road game and perform worse than they did in the previous game.  Many teams play much better at home after playing consecutive road games.  Both of these factors are in play this week, so I like the home team to cover in a close game.  As a double-digit ‘dog in teaser plays, Atlanta looks safe.  Chicago destroyed a weak Detroit team last week, and they will face a much tougher opponent this week.  The Falcons will rough them up, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Matt Ryan have his first 200 yard passing game.  The Bears might be able to shut down Michael Turner, or at least limit his effectiveness, but that will be at the expense of giving Ryan more holes to find in the intermediate zones. 

Detroit (0-4) at Minnesota (2-3)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

PiRate:         Minnesota by 25      

Mean:           Minnesota by 17

Bias:             Minnesota by 19

Vegas:        Minnesota by 13       -600/+450  

Ov/Un:        45½  

Strategy:     Minnesota -3 in 10-point teaser, Minnesota Pk in 13-point teaser, Over 32½ in 13-point teaser

This game scares me a little.  Minnesota enjoyed a big win Monday night in New Orleans, while Detroit was reduced to fodder at home against the Bears Sunday.  The Lions have nothing to lose from here on out, as they are basically competing with the Rams for the rights to Tim Tebow, Beanie Wells, or whoever is deemed the top draft choice in 2009.

Minnesota is just one game out of first place in the NFC North, where 9-7 could easily win the division title.  Obviously, a loss to the lowly Lions would kill their chances.  The Vikings have an easier schedule left than the Packers, and a win Sunday could possible propel them into a first place tie.

Normally, you could expect Minnesota to come out flat in this situation and lay an egg.  If Detroit was as good as less than mediocre Cleveland, I would pick the Lions as an upset possibility this week.  However, with Jon Kitna likely out for this game and Calvin Johnson probably playing at less than 100% strength, what weapons can Detroit use effectively? 

Adrian Peterson is going to think he is facing the Baylor defense when he played at Oklahoma.  Detroit cannot stop average backs, so expect Peterson to have a memorable day.

St. Louis (0-4) at Washington (4-1)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature around 70

PiRate:         Washington by 39   

Mean:           Washington by 23

Bias:             Washington by 29

Vegas:        Washington by 13½       -625/+450   

Ov/Un:        44

Strategy:     St. Louis +23½ in 10-point teaser, St. Louis +26½ in 13-point teaser, Washington -3½ in 10-point teaser, Washington -½ in 13-point teaser, Over 34 in 10-point teaser, Over 31 in 13-point teaser   

Could this be a mini-trap game?  The Rams find themselves in the same situation as the Raiders this week.  They are coming off a bye with a new head coach to play a road game against a team that was extended for 60 minutes the previous game.  There are two differences between the former L.A. teams. The Raiders at least can play a little defense, whereas the Rams play matador defense.  However, the Rams still have Marc Bulger who is capable of throwing for 300 yards and leading his team on a scoring binge.  That's a remote possibility at best, but the Redskins have to cover by two touchdowns against this possibility.

I won't go with either team at + or -13½.  However, both sides look playable in a 10 or 13-point teaser.  The Redskins have yet to blow out an opponent, so asking them to cover at 23½ or 26½ points is a big stretch.  Likewise, at -3½ or -½, the home team looks great.  Teasing the totals looks promising this week.  The Rams have given up 31 or more points in every game this year, and even if they improve by 14 points off their 37 points per game allowed average, they should score at least 14 themselves this week.    

Carolina (4-1) at Tampa Bay (3-2)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Thunderstorms possible in the 2^nd half, light wind, temperature in mid 80's and likely dropping if rain occurs

PiRate:         Pick      

Mean:           Pick

Bias:             Carolina by 2

Vegas:        Tampa Bay by 1       -120/+110  

Ov/Un:        36½  

Strategy:     Tampa Bay -1, Tampa Bay +9 in 10-point teaser, Tampa Bay +12 in 13-point teaser, Over 26½ in 10-point teaser, Over 23½ in 13-point teaser 

This game is one where you need to check back Friday evening to peruse the injury report.  Will Brian Griese be able to play Sunday?  If not, then what difference will it make for Jeff Garcia to start?  Garcia has played in two games this year.  The Bucs lost both.  Griese has started and finished three games this year; the Bucs won all three.  The stats of the two QBs are about the same, but Tampa Bay just doesn't score as many points when Garcia runs the offense.

Carolina in week six is a good touchdown or more improved from the team that opened the season.  The Panthers could take a commanding lead in the NFC South with a win and a Falcons' loss this week.

Therefore, I recommend that you use the above sides' strategies only if you are missing one piece of a three or four team parlay.  I do have more confidence in the totals' teasers.

Miami (2-2) at Houston (0-4)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly Cloudy, light wind, temperature in the mid 80's

PiRate:         Miami by 12      

Mean:           Miami by 1

Bias:             Miami by 7

Vegas:        Houston by 3     -150/+130  

Ov/Un:        45

Strategy:     Houston +7 in 10-point teaser, Under 55 in 10-point teaser (but not so hot on these two)

Like the previous game, I am not so hot on this game.  Houston is still a team in flux following the hurricane.  The Texans have the talent to beat Miami by 10 points, but some of the players may be about ready to fold on this season.

Miami is a team on the rise.  The Dolphins have just enough talent and a nice gimmick offense to sneak out of town with their third consecutive victory.  I think they have a 60% chance of winning this game outright, but I believe if they win, the Texans have a 75% chance of losing by less than a touchdown.

I think Miami will try to control the clock and make this game a lower than expected outcome.  Again, I warn only to use the strategies above if you need a third or fourth part of a parlay.

Baltimore (2-2) at Indianapolis (2-2)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Dome

PiRate:         Baltimore by 6  

Mean:           Indianapolis by 1

Bias:             Pick

Vegas:        Indianapolis by 3½        -190/+160   

Ov/Un:        38½  

Strategy:     Indianapolis -3½, Indianapolis, +6½ in 10-point teaser, Indianapolis +9½ in 13-point teaser, Over 25½ in 13-point teaser   

This game looks like the top play of the week.  Baltimore just played two emotional games against two physical teams and lost both games.  The come into this game with numerous injuries to key personnel (Willis McGahee, Ray Lewis, Fabian Washington, Derrick Mason).  Even if they all play, they won't be nearly as effective as they normally would play.

Peyton Manning now has four games under his belt following his knee surgery.  He missed all of the preseason, so this game is almost like his normal opening game.  His stats have slowly improved as the season has progressed, and the Colts' offense has gotten a little better each week.  If Washington cannot go for the Ravens, Manning will pick apart the Baltimore secondary.  As long as he gets protection, Indianapolis should move the ball more effectively than any Raven opponent to date.

I foresee a Colt double digit win this week.  Their real liability is their run defense, but Baltimore may have to go without McGahee or at the best with him playing on an injured ankle. Le'Ron McClain isn't going to rush for 100 yards and exploit that liability.

I'm going with the Colts to win this one by a score similar to 24-13.  So, my strategies for this game include using the Colts straight up and in teasers, as well as teasing the Over with the belief that Indianapolis will continue to improve offensively and be opportunistic defensively.  

Jacksonville (2-3) at Denver (4-1)

Time:           4:05PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Thunderstorms possible, considerable winds, temperature in the mid 50's

PiRate:         Denver by 9

Mean:           Denver by 2

Bias:             Denver by 5

Vegas:        Denver by 3 -175/+155  

Ov/Un:        48½  

Strategy:     Jacksonville +13 in 10-point teaser, Jacksonville +16 in 13-point teaser, Under 58½ in 10-point teaser, Under 61½ in 13-point teaser

The Broncos' offense has taken a step back in recent weeks after looking more like the 2007 Patriots at the beginning of the season.  Not having Selvin Young, Ryan Torain, Tony Scheffler, and maybe Eddie Royal on hand this week isn't going to make things any better.  Denver will have to pass, pass, pass to a group of less experienced players, and Jacksonville will be able to adjust their blitz packages to take advantage of this fact.

The Jaguars will continue to try to control the clock with the short passing game and power running in short yardage situations.  It's hard to be perfect for long drives all day long on an opponent's field, so they must play better defense if they plan on winning this game. 

This game isn't far from being a tossup given the injuries on the Broncos' side of the field.  If you take the underdog in a teaser, you get a nice amount of points.  Denver might have a 55-60% chance of winning this game, but they have maybe a 10-15% chance of winning by more than two touchdowns.  I'll take the 13 and 16 points in the teasers.  Because I believe Jacksonville will try to shorten the game, I like teasing the Under as well.  If the forecasted rain comes, it could help us a little here.

Green Bay (2-3) at Seattle (1-3)

Time:           4:15PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature in upper 50's

PiRate:         Green Bay by 15      

Mean:           Green Bay by 4

Bias:             Green Bay by 4

Vegas:        Seattle by 2       -120/+110  

Ov/Un:        45½  

Strategy:     Green Bay +12 in 10-point teaser, Green Bay +15 in 13-point teaser, Over 35½ in 10-point teaser, Over 32½ in 13-point teaser 

We have two teams going in the same direction in this game, but unfortunately it is the wrong direction.  Seattle was the odds-on favorite to win the NFC West, but injuries have made them a mere shell of their former selves.  They never really play well on the East Coast, but they also lost at home to San Francisco.

Green Bay has dropped three games in a row, and the Packer defense is not getting the job done.  They cannot give up 28 points per game and think about the playoffs much less having a winning season.  Even Brett Favre would be struggling to win games if he was directing the Packers' offense and having to score 30 points every week to win.

I believe the loser of this game will be out of the playoff hunt, so it becomes a must-win game for both teams.  The players on both sides probably realize this, so I expect a great game that goes down to the wire.  As I previously stated, I like teasing the underdog when I perceive a possible tossup game.  It's like getting extra points.  Since I don't have much faith in these two defenses, it's understood that I would like teasing the Over as well.

Philadelphia (2-3) at San Francisco (2-3)

Time:           4:15PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, considerable wind, temperature in mid to upper 60's

PiRate:         Philadelphia by 12  

Mean:           Philadelphia by 7

Bias:             Philadelphia by 6

Vegas:        Philadelphia by 5     -230/+190  

Ov/Un:        42½  

Strategy:     San Francisco +5, San Francisco +15 in 10-point teaser, San Francisco +18 in 13-point teaser, Over 32½ in 10-point teaser, Over 29½ in 13-point teaser 

Philadelphia's 2008 plight can be summed up by reading the book A Tale of Two Cities.  When Brian Westbrook has been healthy, it has been the best of times in the city of brotherly love.  When Westbrook has been injured, it has been the worst of times in Philly.

Westbrook is out for this game, so I expect something close to the worst of times for the Eagles.  Add to this trouble that Donovan McNabb is far from healthy and Wide out Reggie Brown will miss the game.  Former star Kevin Curtis should finally get on the field for the first time this year, but he won't be ready to have a 100-yard receiving day right out of the box.  I just don't see the Eagles topping 20 points in this game.  Against a weaker than average 49er defense, they will score more than 14, but 17 points may be about their limit unless the defense and/or special teams contribute to the scoring load.

San Francisco is one of the hardest teams to figure out.  J.T. O'Sullivan has proven he is a legitimate starter in the NFL and is running the Mike Martz offense almost as competently as Marc Bulger and Kurt Warner ran it.  Frank Gore is keeping defenses honest.  The 49ers just cannot stop anybody.  Even a wounded Eagles' offense should pick up 300-350 yards and the aforementioned 17 points.

I am going with the 49ers to win this game for a couple of reasons.  First, this is a must-win game for them.  At 2-4, they will be in too much of a hole to make up in a division where only the winner is going to qualify for a playoff spot.  Second, Philadelphia is 10 points weaker without Westbrook than they would be if he was healthy.  Third, Philadelphia is making a cross-country trip a week after being extended to the final gun against Washington, while San Francisco is at home for the second week in a row.  Finally, a loss in this game will start the ball rolling for the dismissal of Coach Mike Nolan. 

I see San Francisco playing their best game of the year this week and pulling off the upset.  So, I like them straight up at +5½ as well as in teasers.  I look for them to win 24-17, so I like teasing the Over as well.  If you can find a money line that has SF +220 or higher, then it might be worth a little bit of a gamble, but I won't pursue that at +190.

Dallas (4-1) at Arizona (3-2)

Time:           4:15PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, considerable wind, temperature in mid to upper 70's

PiRate:         Pick      

Mean:           Dallas by 1

Bias:             Dallas by 2

Vegas:        Dallas by 5         -220/+180  

Ov/Un:        50

Strategy:     Arizona +15 in 10-point teaser, Arizona +18 in 13-point teaser

Dallas has played a wee bit below their predicted expectations the last two weeks.  Arizona has lived up to their billing as a force to be reckoned with this year.  The Cardinals have the lead in the NFC West, and it looks like 9-7 could get them into the playoffs as division winner.

The Cardinals' two home wins look more impressive now that Miami is playing so much better.  They look strong enough to beat just about anybody at University of Phoenix Stadium.

Dallas has the potential to go on the road and win by 14 or more points, but if they continue to play like they have the best two weeks, they could also find themselves in trouble in this game.

I am going with the percentages and progressions here in this game.  Give me the home team and more than two touchdowns, and I will be happy, especially when I get Kurt Warner and more than two touchdowns.

New England (3-1) at San Diego (2-3)

Time:           8:15PM EDT

TV:               NBC

Forecast:     Sunny, then clear after dark, considerable wind, temperature falling from mid 60's to upper 50's

PiRate:         San Diego by 12      

Mean:           San Diego by 4

Bias:             San Diego by 3

Vegas:        San Diego by 5         -220/+200  

Ov/Un:        45

Strategy:     None

I do not like the two prime time games this week.  This game is between two very inconsistent teams.  Which New England team will we see this week?  Will it be the team that struggled to edge the hapless Chiefs and saw the Dolphins blow them off their home field, or will it be the team that held Brett Favre and the Jets to 10 points and won all the way across the country last week?

San Diego keeps finding ways to lose games, but they also scored like they were a basketball team in their prior prime time game.

I'll leave this one alone.  It is too risky.

New York Giants (4-0) at Cleveland (1-3)

Time:           8:30PM EDT Monday

TV:               ESPN

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature falling through the 60's

PiRate:         Giants by 16     

Mean:           Giants by 9

Bias:             Giants by 14

Vegas:        Giants by 7½     -325/+265   

Ov/Un:        43½  

Strategy:     None

Sooner or later, Cleveland is going to break through with a big game on offense.  They had a week off to prepare for this game, and they have too many weapons on the attack side not to bust loose eventually.  I watched these two teams play in the preseason, and the Browns gave the Giants 23 points in gifts yet still lost by three.  Obviously, the preseason is not an accurate gauge, but I believe the Browns are itching to show the defending Super Bowl champions their best effort.

The one thing that worries me is the health of Kellen Winslow.  He may not be able to go Monday night, but even if he misses the game, I can still see Cleveland having their best game of the year.

The Giants can still win this game by 10 points even if the Browns play their best game of the year.  Their defense is starting to look like one of those great stop troops of yesteryear.  You know the type I am talking about; I'm referring to those defenses that have been immortalized with a fancy nickname like the Purple People Eaters, the Fearsome Foursome, the Steel Curtain, the Doomsday Defense, the No-name Defense, etc.  They are on pace to give up less than 200 points (that equates to less than 175 points when comparing to the teams from the 14-game schedule era).

Two things worry me this week about the Giants.  First, even with a tough taskmaster like Tom Coughlin on the sidelines, the Giants won with such ease against Seattle last week and can only be a little too cocky this week.  They will definitely bounce some.  Second, New York has played three home games and just one road game, which was at St. Louis.  This is their first road game against a team that has enough talent to score points against their defense.

The problem with this game is that there are too many variables.  I like the Browns' prospects in this game.  I think they have a better than expected chance of keeping this one close and having a shot at the big upset.  However, if this isn't the week they awaken from their offensive slumber, this game could be another snoozer for the fans.  It isn't one to consider in my strategies.

The Imaginary Bank Account Makes It Five-for-Five

It wasn't pretty, but after the smoke cleared Sunday night in Jacksonville, I was a winner for the fifth consecutive week.  My picks finished 7-4 for the week, running my record to 34-16-3 for the season (68%).

Due to the fact that I lost a money line pick, my profit was only $80, bringing my year-to-date profit to $1,345.00.  That gives me a return on investment of 25.4%.  The come from behind victory by Washington was the killer, as if Philadelphia had held on in the fourth quarter, the difference in 7-4 and 8-3 would have been an extra $360.  Oh well, I'll just have to be glad with being able to maintain 100% winning weeks a month and a half into the season.

Last week, it was the straight wagers that won for me, as I went 4-1 in those five picks, while going just 3-3 in the 10-point teasers.  I have noticed that a lot of my teaser losses have come about because one team or one total in the parlay failed to cover by one or two points.  It kills you to watch a team elect to go for a touchdown late in the game and miss on fourth down when a field goal would have covered your wager, but such is life.  Losing by one or two points should be rectifiable by playing some 13-point teasers.  Of course, it could just be the new way to lose by one or two points, and I still have a 100% record of winning weeks, so I could be setting myself up for disaster.  Remember this!  I don't really have anything monetary to worry about since I don't actually wager with money.  So, I can gamble a little with four-team, 13-point teaser parlays and sleep comfortably this weekend. 

Here are my wagers for week six (all wagered to win $100):

1. New York Jets -240 vs. Cincinnati

2. Atlanta +3 vs. Chicago

3. Tampa Bay -1 vs. Carolina

4. Indianapolis -3½ vs. Baltimore

5. San Francisco +5 vs. Philadelphia

6. 10-point teaser

       A. Atlanta +13 vs. Chicago

       B. Minnesota -3 vs. Detroit

       C. Washington -3½ vs. St. Louis

7. 10-point teaser

       A. Tampa Bay +9 vs. Carolina

       B. Indianapolis +6½ vs. Baltimore

       C. Jacksonville +13 vs. Denver

8. 10-point teaser

       A. Green Bay +12 vs. Seattle

       B. San Francisco +15 vs. Philadelphia

       C. Tampa Bay & Carolina Over 26½

9. 10-point teaser

       A. Green Bay & Seattle Over 35½

       B. San Francisco & Philadelphia Over 32½

       C. Arizona +15 vs. Dallas

10. 13-point teaser

       A. New York Jets +7½ vs. Cincinnati

       B. Atlanta +16 vs. Chicago

       C. Minnesota Pk vs. Detroit

       D. St. Louis +26½ vs. Washington

11. 13-point teaser

       A. Detroit & Minnesota Over 32½

       B. Washington -½ vs. St. Louis

       C. Tampa Bay +12 vs. Carolina

       D. Indianapolis & Baltimore Over 25½

12. 13-point teaser

       A. Tampa Bay & Carolina Over 23½

       B. Indianapolis +9½ over Baltimore

       C. Jacksonville +16 vs. Denver

       D. Green Bay +15 vs. Seattle

13. 13-point teaser

       A. Green Bay & Seattle Over 32½

       B. San Francisco +18 vs. Philadelphia

       C. San Francisco & Philadelphia Over 29½

       D. Arizona +18 vs. Dallas              

AND REMEMBER!!!  Do not use these picks for real.  I have no real money on the line in this mathematical experiment.  I won't lose a penny if all nine wagers lose this week, so you shouldn't risk a penny on these picks either.  This is strictly for fun.

Bears over Falcons

Texans over Dolphins

Colts over Ravens

Lions over Vikings

Saints over Raiders

Jets over Bengals

Panthers over Buccaneers

Redskins over Rams

Broncos over Jaguars

Cowboys over Cardinals

Eagles over 49ers

Packers over Seahawks

Chargers over Patriots

Giants over Browns

Side Note: To illustrate how small the world really is, the Cincinnati Bengals have a starting quarterback named Carson Palmer. Currently, he won't start this week, but that's besides the point. The Bengals also have a third-string quarterback, and his names is Jordan Palmer. That's right, they're brothers. Two brothers, by blood, playing the same position for the same team. That's like the Molina brothers (Jose and Bengie) both playing for the Angels in 2002. And a subsequent third brother, Yadier, who plays and won a World Series for the 2006 Cardinals. Three brothers, playing the same position, same sport, and all have World Series' rings. The Manning brothers would have a similar distinction is Cooper would get up off his ass and throw the pigskin around for once.

LaDainian Tomlinson is averaging just 3.7 YPC this season, his lowest average since his 2001 rookie season. He had 48 rushing yards and no touchdowns in last two games against New England, including the postseason.

Michael Turner is averaging 162.0 rushing YPG and has scored five touchdowns at home this season. In his career, Turner averages 8.0 YPC indoors (54 rushes, 434 yards).

The Miami Dolphins have run 16 direct snaps to Ronnie Brown in the last two games; those direct snaps have produced 167 yards (148 rush, 19 pass), four rushing touchdowns and one passing touchdown.

Brett Favre has thrown for seven touchdowns and seven interceptions in four career games against Cincinnati. He threw for 279 yards with one touchdown and five interceptions in last start against them (10/30/05).

In six career regular-season starts against Baltimore, Peyton Manning has averaged 283.8 passing yards with 13 passing touchdowns and three interceptions. The Colts have averaged 25.0 points per game in their last five overall meetings against the Ravens.

Earnest Graham has averaged 113.5 rushing YPG with two touchdowns at home this season. He has also recorded a rushing touchdown in five straight home games.

Greg Jennings had six catches for 71 yards and scored two touchdowns against Seattle in a 2007 postseason game. Jennings has scored three touchdowns in the past two games overall.

Kurt Warner has thrown 31 touchdown passes in his last 13 games. That's the most passing scores for any quarterback dating back to the final eight games of 2007.

By Ignacio Salazar
The Texans dropped a big one this weekend…quite possibly the biggest in the team’s history. Because of a viral infection sidelining Matt Shaub, Sage Rosenfels made an emergency start.  Since Shaub’s performance has been mediocre at best this season, Rosenfels had what could have been his golden opportunity to take over at the quarterback position.

For the first 55 minutes, Rosenfels was amazing, but then his wheels came off…costing the winless Texans yet another shot at posting a number in their win column.

With a 27-10 lead and less than five minutes left to play, the Indianapolis Colts (2-2), lead by Peyton Manning scored 21 points in 2:10.

Ultimately, their loss came down to three blunders by Rosenfels.

Rosenfels Blunder 1: He refused to slide and opted to go airborne over the defense, causing him to fumble when he was hit. Linebacker Gary Brackett snagged the loose ball and trucked 68-yards for the touchdown to make it 27-24 with 3:38 remaining on the clock.

Rosenfels Blunder 2: With a three point lead and the game winding down, all the Texans had to do was kill the clock.  But on a pass play, Rosenfels rolled out to his left and Robert Mathis knocked the ball out of his hand.  The Colts recovered with prime field position and took over on the Texans' 19-yard line with 2:44 left.

Manning and the Colts offense would take the lead with under two minutes to play, resulting in Reggie Wayne making a spectacular circus-style five-yard touchdown catch to put his team ahead 31-27.

Rosenfels Blunder 3: The Texans had one final chance to get the win with 1:47 remaining, but Rosenfels threw an interception and the Colts ran out the clock for a come-from-behind win.

Andre Johnson had nine catches for 131 yards and a touchdown. Running back Steve Slaton was solid too with 16 rushes for 93 yards and two touchdowns.

Broncos -4 vs. Bucs

A couple of weeks ago this game would have been no contest and an easy victory for a Broncos team that seemed destined to make a Super Bowl run. Denver could still be on its way to Tampa Bay, but after being kept relatively in check offensively against Kansas City last week, they could be in trouble.

Jay Culter could arguably be the best quarterback in the NFL right now. With Tom Brady out for the season and Peyton Manning not playing like Peyton Manning, Culter has the edge in my book. The guy just seems to make the right decision at the right time and is one of the most accurate quarterbacks ever to play the game. The problem is that his defense doesn’t back up the points the young quarterback puts on the board.

The Bucs on the other hand are winning pretty much under the radar. They are not all that great on offense (a lot of turnovers) and their defense isn’t all that special either, but they continue to beat good teams. First it was Chicago and then it was the Packers that fell victim to the Bucs. For some reason ex-Broncos quarterback Brian Griese has this team at 3-1 (3-0 since he took the starting job).

The Achilles heel for the Denver Broncos is their defense. They just can't stop anyone right now despite having one of the best defensive players in the game in Champ Bailey. If Griese can keep the turnovers to a minimum and keep throwing touchdown passes like he has, the Bucs have a shot at pulling off the upset.

InSpin.com

Colts -4 1/2 vs. Texans

No team is in more need to get back on track then the Indianapolis Colts. It is not that there season can’t be rescued, but if they don’t get their high powered offense back to dominant status, it definitely could be.

At 1-2, the Colts haven’t looked this bad to start the season since Peyton Manning was a rookie. It is not just that they look bad, but Manning is just not playing well thus far. Usually Manning is in command, controlling the offense and keeping the defense completely clueless, but he is really struggling coming back from being injured for the first time in his football career.

As for the Houston Texans, despite their 0-3 record, things are starting to come together. There first three games were against really tough opponents, (Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Jacksonville) especially on defense.

Last week against Jacksonville, the Texans finally were able to get their talented offense back on track. Even though they lost in overtime 27-30, Matt Schaub looked efficient for the first time this season tossing three touchdown passes.

With Peyton Manning taking the snaps for the Colts, Indianapolis always has a great chance of winning the game no matter who the opponent. Coming into the matchup against the Colts on Sunday, the Texans will give the Colts a run for their money, but Manning will get his team back to the .500 mark.

InSpin.com

But after watching the debacle that happened in Houston yesterday, Texans coach Gary Kubiak has to go.

There is no way you should ever coach a game like he did the last few minutes yesterday.

In case you missed it, the Texans were beating the Indianapolis Colts by 17 points with about five minutes to go. The Colts score a touchdown, and the lead is now 10 points, with four minutes to go.

All they need to do is run the ball. They don't even need a first down. Running the ball on three straight plays will waste more than two minutes. Either the Colts have to use their timeouts, or they don't have much time.

So the Texans run the first play, but throw an incomplete pass, which stops the clock. Then, they set up the quarterback Sage Rosenfels to throw again. But there's no one open. So he tries to run for the first down. And instead of just sliding safely, he tries to leap for the first down, fumbles the balls, which is returned by the Colts for a touchdown.

This whole thing killed 27 seconds! Instead of two minutes, it was only 27 seconds, and it let the other team score! Why have him throw?

Fine, Houston still has a three-point lead. You think they learned their lesson. After getting the ball back, they rush the first time, and then throw another incomplete pass! They stopped the clock again! And then they tried to throw again, and Rosenfels was sacked, fumbled, and loss the ball. Two plays later, touchdown for the Colts, and the game.

The team hadn't won a game all season. Why start gambling it away when you're up by 10 points? Especially when the quarterback on the other team is Peyton Manning. Keep the ball out of his hands.

Forget the fact Rosenfels fumbled twice, but why was he throwing in the first place? That's the playcalling of the coach, and it was brutal. And it's not like they had trouble running the ball. Steve Slaton ran for 93 yards and two touchdowns.

If you don't understand basic football, you don't deserve to be an NFL head coach.

The He manages the game well commentary seems to be reserved for an inexperienced quarterback who doesn't have great statistics but the team manages to win anyway. I guess the expectation of the pass-heavy league is that all quarterbacks are expected to throw often and for a significant number of yards; when one doesn't but still somehow leads his team to victory, they can't say that He played well or even that He played well enough to win within the limited offensive game plan. The best they can spit out is that He managed the game well. The goal of the game is to win, and the quarterback is arguably the most important player, so if the team wins, give the guy some credit--especially if he's an inexperienced player. I've heard the manage-the-game-well comment about J.T. O'Sullivan and Joe Flacco.

The only time that I hear the term mentioned for a premier quarterback, such as Peyton Manning or Donovan McNabb, is with the negative. He's not managing the game well is said about these players during a poor performance. Hey, even the greats have an off-day, so just say so. Manning is not playing well; the world won't come to an end.

--Paul

I feel confident in typing that the Crompton era has been put to a rest at Tennessee. Though the score doesn't reflect it, Stephens is the better QB to lead the VOLS. Keep in mind that one reason the score doesn't reflect why the switch at QB is good move as opposed to a lateral move is because the coaching staff kept the chains on him.

Nick "The Rifleman" Stephens still might be another piece to the Fulmer downfall though. If Stephens starts producing big time number and wins then I'm sure some critics will say "Why didn't Fulmer bench Crompton the Mountain (False) Messiah sooner?", but if Stephens is a bust as well then other critics will ask "What type of players is Fulmer recruiting?" Either way this is a double edged sword for Fulmer.

It distresses me to some degree that the UT athletic director Mike Hamilton had to "suggest" a change at QB to Fulmer. I believe Hamilton when he states he made the "suggestion" in order to get the crowd to show to positive energy. However I also believe that Hamilton made this "suggestion" as a way to sell more tickets.

"Phillip and I have regular meetings and we were just kicking it around and talking about it," Hamilton said. "I just said I would encourage you that if you have a decision you ought to announce it in advance so the fans can know that."

What a prince of a man.

One thing the score reflects is that the offensive problems that have plagued UT this season goes far deeper than the QB position. I'll say it plainly: The whole system is broken. At times I don't believe the right personnel are in the game. We'll go over that as I release the grades for this week. I'm not the only one believing that as well. Some big time "donors" (other schools call them boosters) are voicing that opinion as well.

Via GVX complete story here.

"I do believe there's time for some new blood in the head coaching position, I do," said Chattanooga's Brian Williams, a VASF donor for nine years.

"He's been good, but it's just too conservative. There's been too many times we've played not to lose and we've lost, instead of being aggressive and taking it a full 60 minutes, and I don't see that happening with Phil being the coach."

"We just recently had a change this past year with the offensive coordinator and everything, and it seems like we still have the same situation we've had previous years, being too conservative, not being open with the offense," Williams said.

"I think Phil needs to open up and let the offensive coordinator run the offense like he should."

So does Chris Parrott, a 1990 UT graduate and VASF donor since the program started.

"Up until this season I have defended Phillip Fulmer because he was my school's coach," she said. "It's getting harder for me to defend with the performance on the field."

Parrott sees the coaching change that UT made in basketball, hiring Bruce Pearl to invigorate the program, and hopes the football program could find as good a fit.

However, it took UT several tries before finding a Pearl-like fit for the basketball program.

"I predicted at the beginning of the season we'd probably be 5-7," Parrott said. "Again, I respect Phillip Fulmer. I'm so glad he brought my school a national championship (1998), but it's probably time, and I think it would be a good, positive change."

I'm still not 100% on that idea I myself would like to see how this season pans out with Stephens. As the Ghost of Neyland of the 3^rd Saturday in Blogtober points out in an excellent posting about Stephens...there was another QB by the name of Peyton Manning that had similar numbers in his outing. I think that Manning kid grew up to be a special QB, anyone want to argue that point with me?

Without further rambling let's review the grades.

QB: B

Stephens was 10 of 17 for 156 yards and one TD and two of the 17 were drops by the receivers. I told you the coaching staff kept him under wraps. Now you might realize that Crompton was averaging the same amount in passing yards however Stephens had zero interceptions. Has Crompton played a game this without an interception? Something else that statistics can not show is how the other players were rallying behind him on the sidelines. Stephens hung in the pocket and managed the entire game well. Stephens is clearly the new leader of the VOLS.

Running backs: F

That's right an F. Foster had 18 carries for 75 yards. Even though he didn't fumble he showed a real lack of power. Hardesty only had seven carries and never got in the game. This is an example of the incorrect personnel in the game. I know that you know that we both know Creer should be playing more. I understand that it is important for Foster to obtain the all-time Tennessee rushing record but scoring points and ball possession is important as well.

Receivers: D-

Denarius Moore made a name for himself using his break away speed to haul in a 52 yard TD pass. Josh "He brings hell with him" Briscoe had two catches that totaled 22 yards however he decided to pull a "foster" and fumble the ball. Braden Warren and Gerald Jones thought they were both Stocker and dropped easy passes.

Offensive Line: F

They got their asses kicked by some Mid-Major creampuff whose only claim to fame is the fact Cindy Crawford lived in the same town that the university is located at. Ramon Foster missed a block that caused Stephens to take a fumble inducing hit. There was no push in short yardage situations.

Defensive Line: C-

There is still a lack of sacks this season and stupid penalties such as late hits (yes I'm talking to you Bolden) plague this group.

Linebackers: C-

While they moved around a lot, the Huskies were falling forward on most of their runs. McKenzie had nine tackles, two tackles-for-loss. Rico McCoy is still a tackling machine with no mercy and had a sack.

Secondary: B

Though they didn't play as well as they have in the past games this season, the 3^rd string NIU QB couldn't deliver the ball to the receivers. I think a lot of the receivers appeared open because the secondary was trying to lure the NIU QB into making a mistake. Eric Berry succeeded by grabbing an interception and running it back 48 yards. Stupid fouls were called on Rogan & Williams.

Special Teams: D+

There was decent enough coverage throughout the night however Daniel Lincoln Logs is still having problems making field goals. Lincoln made two field goals, one by bouncing off the upright bar and the other barely hooked to get inside the upright. He also missed a 32 yard chip shot. Cunningham had a punt blocked. Again I ask the question: Why don't we have a special teams coach?

Coaching: C+

That's right C+ people. This is the highest grade I've given all season. Fulmer and Clawson had Stephens ready to go and even though it was a creampuff team of sorts, it has to be challenging to come in and try to win when the fans have been booing and the team is 1-3. The defense played well and they were on the field for over 33 minutes.

Overall: B-

Even though I call NIU a creampuff team they are phenomenally well coached. Granted I would have loved to see more points scored but there was a new QB in the game. I truly believe this team can beat anyone with the right personnel in the game. However I do not have the luxury of making that call only the coaches do. I pray they'll make the right personnel calls for the Georgia game.

Colts 31, Texans 27

QB vs. QB
Peyton Manning had 247 yards passing and two touchdowns
Sage Rosenfels246 yards passing and a TD pass. He fumbled the ball as well

Fastest Man
Steve Slaton had 97 yards and two touchdowns

Top Receiver
Andre Johnson had nine receptions for 131 yards and a touchdown

Key D
Gary Brackett returned a fumble four a touchdown late in the fourth quarter

Game Thread

17-12 against the spread thus far for the Duke's Picks in the 2008 NFL Season. The Raiders' late game implosion was certainly a big let down, but inspired play from Houston and Baltimore kept us on track. We'll take the win from Cleveland, but they still looked downright heinous on the offensive side of the ball. Without further ado, here are the week 5 Duke's Picks.  Home teams are in caps, Duke's Picks are in bold.

Indianapolis Colts -3 HOUSTON TEXANS - The bye week couldn't have come at a better time for the Indianapolis Colts. They are expected to have RT Ryan Diem, LT Tony Ugoh, and C Jeff Saturday all healthy for Sunday's matchup with the Houston Texans. This will be the first time all season that the Colts' line will be at full strength. Peyton Manning has been under intense pressure through this team's first 3 games and Joseph Addai has had very few running lanes. All that should change this week.

NEW YORK GIANTS -7.5 Seattle Seahawks - Plaxico Burress will sit due to suspension, Deion Branch and possibly Bobby Engram will return from injury.  The Seahawks have improved their play each week and should be able to keep this one close.

GREEN BAY PACKERS -7.5 Atlanta Falcons - If Aaron Rodgers plays, he won't be at full strength and the Packers will suffer.  If he doesn't, Atlanta's a flat out better team.  The Al Harris injury will free up the Falcons passing game, which will only improve with each passing game.  Michael Turner has been a beast and Jerious Norwood is averaging 7.0 yards a carry.

Chicago Bears -3.5 DETROIT LIONS - Sunday night was a big win for the Chicago Bears.  They played a physical game with the Philadelphia Eagles and managed to bang out the close victory.  Detroit, meanwhile, had a bye week and time to prepare for their home matchup with one this year's surprise teams in the NFL.  Brandon Lloyd, Chicago's top receiver thus far, has a sprained left knee that will most likely keep him out of action this week.  Tommie Harris, the league's highest paid defensive tackle, will miss the game due to injury/suspension.  Chicago's set up pretty well for a let down game.

San Diego Chargers -7 MIAMI DOLPHINS - Another home team coming off a bye week.  Miami shocked the world with their thrashing of the New England Patriots on their home turf in week 3.  San Diego, meanwhile, struggled in week 4 against a team in turmoil, the Oakland Raiders.  Sure they came out with a 10 point victory, but that game was really Oakland's to lose.  When Shawne Merriman went down with a season ending knee injury, the Chargers were confident that his replacement, Jyles Tucker could get the job done.  Tucker is now dealing with hamstring injury and is unlikely to take the field against the Phins.

The PiRate Pro Ratings

The NFL version of the PiRate Ratings is not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL version is strictly a statistical formula than could be reproduced by anybody who knew the equations I use to devise the formula.  No subjective data is used.

The formula combines scoring margin, strength of schedule, and early in the season, last year's scoring margin and strength of schedule.  As the season progresses, last year's data decreases to where it has little effect by mid-October. 

The Mean Ratings

Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations.  Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule.  Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents' rushing and passing.  Point values are assigned based on each set of data.  The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970's and 1980's.  The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.

The Bias Ratings

The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings.  The five ratings are not given equal weight.  The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%.  I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.