For the month of July 2008 231 homes sold in Marin County for an average final selling price of $1,090,461.

The range of final selling prices was from a low of $165,000 for a condo in Sausalito to a high of $6,595,000 for a home in Stinson Beach.

38 out of the 231 homes that sold were distress sales.

It took these homes an average of 82 days to sell.

To see everything in the area that is for sale search our MLS.

For more information about this area visit my website or contact me directly.

For the month of July 2008 11 homes sold in Tiburon for an average final selling price of $1,655,227.

The average original asking price was $1,812,355.

The range of final selling prices of these homes was from a low of $440,000 to a high of $3,600,000.

Of the 11 homes that sold only 1 sold at the original asking price.  All others sold for less.

It took these homes an average of 84 days to sell.

To see everything in the area that is for sale search our MLS.

For more information about this area visit my website or contact me directly.

For the month of July 2008 only 9 homes sold in Sausalito for an average final selling price of $889,111.

The average original asking price of these homes was $953,605.

The range of final selling prices was from a low of $165,000 to a high of $1,400,000.

Of the 9 homes that sold 1 sold at the original asking price and all others sold for less.

It took these homes an average of 91 days to sell.

To see everything in the area that is for sale search our MLS.

For more information about this area visit my website or contact me directly.

For the month of July 2008 49 homes sold in San Rafael for an average final selling price of $791,750.

The average original asking price of these homes was $838,168.

The range of final selling prices was from a low of $184,500 to a high of $2,450,000.

Of the 49 homes that sold 5 sold at their original asking price and 1 sold over the original asking price.  All others sold for less.

It took these homes an average of 71 days to sell.

To see everything in the area that is for sale search our MLS.

For more information about this area visit my website or contact me directly.

For the month of July 2008 13 homes sold in San Anselmo for an average final selling price of $1,429,462.

The average original asking price of these homes was $1,484,538.

The range of final selling prices of these homes was from a low of $580,000 to a high of $4,000,000.

Of the 13 homes that sold 3 sold at their original asking price and all others sold for less.

It took these homes an average of 55 days to sell.

To see everything in the area that is for sale search our MLS.

For more information about this area visit my website or contact me directly.

For the month of July 2008 only 2 homes sold in Ross for an average final selling price of $2,025,000.

The average original asking price of these homes was $2,587,000.

The two final selling prices were a low of $1,150,000 and a high of $2,900,000.

It took these two homes an average of 199 days to sell.

Both homes sold for less than their original asking price.

To see everything in the area that is for sale search our MLS.

For more information about this area visit my website or contact me directly.

For the month of July 2008 51 homes sold in Novato for an average final selling price of $629,010.

The average original asking price of these homes was $710,033.

The range of final selling prices for these homes was from a low of $180,000 to a high of $1,800,000.

It took these homes an average of 128 days to sell.

Of the 51 homes that sold 3 sold at their original asking price and 2 sold over their original asking price.  All the others sold for less.

A staggering 23 of the 51 homes that sold were distress sales.

To see everything in the area that is for sale search our MLS.

For more information about this area visit my website or contact me directly.

For the month of July 2008 30 homes sold in Mill Valley for an average final selling price of $1,653,445.

The average original asking price of these homes was $1,749,798.

The range of final selling prices of these homes was from a low of $500,000 to a high of $6,350,000.

It took these homes an average of 58 days to sell.

Of the 30 homes that sold 2 sold at their original asking price and 8 sold over their original asking price.  The other 20 sold for less.

To see everything in the area that is for sale search our MLS.

For more information about this area visit my website or contact me directly.

For the month of July 2008 only 9 homes sold in Larkspur for an average final selling price of $1,514,889.

The average original asking price of these homes was $1,642,544.

The range of final selling prices was from a low of $265,000 to a high of $2,570,000.

It took these homes an average of 89 days to sell.

Of the 9 homes that sold 2 sold at their original asking price and all others sold for less.

To see everything in the area that is for sale search our MLS.

For more information about this area visit my website or contact me directly.

For the month of July 2008 only 3 homes sold in Kentfield for an average final selling price of $1,695,000.

The average original asking price of these homes was $1,761,333.

The range of final selling prices for these homes was from a low of $475,000 to a high of $2,410,000.

It took these homes an average of 83 days to sell.

Of the 3 homes that sold, 1 sold over the original asking price and the other 2 sold for less.

To see everything in the area that is for sale search our MLS.

For more information about this area visit my website or contact me directly.

For the month of July 2008 14 homes sold in Corte Madera for an average final selling price of $1,125,939.

The average original asking price of these homes was $1,175,429.

The range of final selling prices for these homes was from a low of $390,100 to a high of $1,925,000.

It took these homes an average of 38 days to sell (impressive!).

Of the 14 homes that sold 1 sold at their original asking price and 2 sold over their original asking price.

To see everything in the area that is for sale search our MLS.

For more information about this area visit my website or contact me directly.

Everybody wants to know how to properly time the Volatile Housing market to make out the best when buying or selling a home. It's just natural. This is especially true if you're thinking about buying in a down market where homes prices are declining. You wonder how low they will go and whether you should wait, right?   

If you sell and “buy up” simultaneously, you'll still be ahead of the game because the price reduction on the purchase is greater than the loss on the sale.  By “Buying Up” I mean purchasing a larger, more expensive house than the one you are selling.

Let me show you exactly what I mean.  If your present house is worth $300,000, but because of high inventory and the lack of qualified buyers, you must reduce your price by 15%. So, instead of receiving $300,000, you would get $255,000 and "lose" $45,000.  If you are planning to move up to a $500,000 house, which is located in the same down market, you could probably buy that house at that same 15% discount or $425,000. This would mean you had saved $75,000.  So you "lost" $45,000 on the sale of your home but you "made" $75,000 on the purchase of your new home So you are actually $30,000 ahead. 

If you are downsizing then the reverse is true.  You are taking a bigger loss on the sales price, and the amount you are gaining buy “buying down” will be smaller.

Another Huge thing to consider, the interest rates!

It is also VERY important to monitor which way interest rates are moving? Are they moving up or moving down? If interest rates are near an all-time low and beginning to inch upwards, waiting could cost you far more than you would think. You might not be able to afford to buy a home at any price.

*Each .25 (1/4) point increase in your interest rate gives you $12,500 less in purchasing power

 *Each .50 (1/2) point increase in your interest rate gives you $25,000 less in purchasing power.

*Each 1 point increase in your interest rate gives you $50,000 less in purchasing power.  

*Each 2 point increase in your interest rate gives you $100,000 less in purchasing power.

*Each 2.5 (2 ½) point increase in your interest rate gives you $125,000 less in purchasing power.

Look at the Differences Among Purchase Prices versus Interest Rates

If you put down 20% and take a 30 year mortgage for the 80% balance, here are your principal and interest payments on the following purchase prices:

$425,000 sales price, at 8.25% interest, your payment is $2,554.

$450,000 sales price, at 7.75% interest, your payment is $2,579.

$475,000 sales price, at 7.25% interest, your payment is $2,592.

$500,000 sales price, at 6.75% interest, your payment is $2,594.

$525,000 sales price, at 6.25% interest, your payment is $2,586.

The payments are almost identical. However, the home you can afford to buy a 8.25% is $100,000 less than the home you can afford to buy at 6.25%. If you wait for home prices to further decline, the actual value could be lost due to higher rates.  The best thing to do is talk to a Mortgage Company or your local bank and find out what rates you qualify for.  This will help you to make a decision that works best for you and your family. 

The total number of bank-owned homes in Lake Forest today is 45, and they have an average price of $326,000 at $232/square foot.   

Total active homes on the MLS in Lake Forest is currently 287, with only 97 of them available as traditional "non-distressed" sales with a seller who can answer an offer without having to wait for a bank to approve the price.  Of those, there are 30 condos and 67 single family homes.  Prices of the single family homes begin at $459,000 and go up to $1,695,000.  

For buyers who are hoping to pick up a "deal" on a foreclosure property, it is critical to be fully pre-approved in advance and to be educated about the values.  Many of the foreclosure listings are coming on the market priced very low compared to other properties.  They may be in almost any condition, ranging from totally dirty and damaged to pretty nice "move-in" condition.  Alert agents and buyers are finding them and making offers almost immediately.  I have had several experiences where my buyer submitted an offer the first day on the market, then, after waiting for 3 or more days, the bank's agent asked all the buyers to re-write their offers at their "highest and best" price.  This strategy has created an "auction-fever" environment that leads to the home selling for substantially more than the original list price.  If you plan to make an offer on one of these undervalued properties, you need to carefully review the comps, and make your best offer based on your perception of what it will really cost you to make the home comfortable for you!

Okay, this may be a stretch, or a bit polyanna of me, but I think the "Fall bounce" which we typically see heading into the post-Labor Day market, will be bouncier than normal.   This means that we'll see more sales, firmer pricing, and generally much more "velocity" in our local Seattle real estate market.

Why do I think this -- other than as a broker and developer I'd REALLY REALLY like to see it happen? 

A few reasons:

• The RPX Monthly Housing Market Report -- May 2008 -- was just released.  Seattle ranks fourth in 23 listed MSA's (metro areas) in price decline, with 4.7% year over year.  This follows a 12.1% increase between May '06 and May'07.  The interesting thing is that between April and May 2008, there was a 3.7% uptick in value.  No one should be deluded into thinking their house is worth anywhere near its peak price, but a 5-10% decline from that 2007 pricing still builds in a lot of equity/appreciation for anyone who bought before 2007.  For five year annualized change, Seattle ranks at the top of the list, with 9.5% annual appreciation.
• Transaction counts were down 24% between May of '06 and '07, and down another 46% between May '07 and '08.  A 30% increase in sales for September and October would bring a lot of strength into the market, while not coming anywhere near where our sales numbers (in terms of transaction volume) have been the last few years.  It's like having a car that can do 150 mpg -- we were driving that fast in 2006, we slowed to 114 mph last year, and to 61 mpg this year.  I just want do be doing 80 again.  I think this old rig has it in her.
• The housing bill.  Some summary info here.  I don't like all of this, but there are some great elements here to spur the market.  Our car isn't out of gas like it is in lots of markets, so a little nitro in our tank should help us get things moving again quite nicely.  More stable mortgage markets and the first time buyer credit, while not solving all of our issues, sure won't hurt things.  The rates seem like they're staying low and will for at least the near future.
• Rents vs. Prices.  This has long been stated (Seattlebubble post on the topic) as a reason for the decline of civilization (or "too expensive housing") -- Housing prices get out of whack relative to market rents for those houses.  That's really turned around.  Rents here are WAY up.  RPA manages over 1000 rental units -- most of them for individual owners for whom we manage single family homes, condos, or small multifamily buildings.  Our portfolio's rents are up, on average, over 8% for each of the last three years -- 24% in total.  This makes up for seven years of virtually no increases, of course.  But to rent a $350,000 townhome for $1800, or an $800,000 house for $3500 -- these are mortgage payment sized rents.  Even the higher end homes ($1m-2m) are renting well, and for big numbers that we haven't seen.  I think people NOT buying has significantly increased demand for the rental product, which bails out lots of homeowners who don't HAVE to sell right now.  But it won't take long for these renters to recognize that owning, at close to the same monthly payment, is an attractive option.
• The market right now, as it sits, just ain't that bad.  We're moving product if it's well-positioned and well-priced.   That means priced a few points BELOW recent sales.  In those hot markets, the mantra was "well, it's been six months.  We need to be priced 10% above that sale."  No more -- trends work both ways.  It's a tough pill to swallow but for most owners that paid $200,000 for their homes in 1993, and could have sold for $900,000 at one point?  $775,000 is still a healthy gain.   I know that's small consolation to those owners that actually paid $900,000, but that part of the market is a small minority.  Hopefully they don't have to sell this year.  I say this because even if we just have stability, it's just the "normal" market we had in the early 90's.
• Year over Year statistics.  Things started slowing dramatically last September, after August's financial crisis began in earnest.  So when we start reviewing year over year numbers, instead of seeing big declines, we'll see flat or improving numbers for volume, and maybe for pricing.  This sort of news seems to create more good news.
• And one last thing:  For new construction, including townhomes, most builders are selling now at prices that give them little or no profit margin.  Sometimes this is at the demand of their lenders, sometimes just to clear the deck for the builder and to get out from under the debt service.  This can't continue, and I don't think the underlying land prices can fall enough to restore that margin in upcoming years.  As a result, very little new product will come onto the market until prices come back to a point where it makes sense for a builder to build it. 

We'll see what the season brings, but with a good 1/3rd of the year to go, I'm more optimistic than I've been since I got back from Inman last July and quickly started battening down the hatches.

Let's just cut to the chase.  Foreclosures, repossessions, and short sale inventories are at an all time high in Northwest Arkansas and around the country.  While this is most definitely unfortunate for those homeowners going through these processes, the investor or home flipper in all of us perks up at the mention of a distressed property, hoping that there may be a way for us to benefit.

How do we find these diamonds in the rough and separate them from the truly atrocious properties that have so many liens and repairs that "money pit" doesn't begin to describe them?  There is now a wealth of resources for those looking for foreclosed properties in and around Northwest Arkansas.  If you contact me directly, I'll give you my secret stash, otherwise, you'll have to hash it out with the rest of the dreamers out there.  I will tell you that websites like www.nwafiresale.com are popping up at a staggering rate.  While firesale is a local site, there are a host of pay sites that give you information on all types of distressed properties.  Just a few that come to mind are: www.RealtyTrac.com, www.homesales.gov, www.hud.gov, www.foreclosure.com, the list goes on.

 Working with foreclosed properties, short sales, and bank owned properties can be a harrowing experience.  I highly recommend using a realtor that at least has a few of these under his/her belt.  Preferably, you might even want to find a ‘specialist' in the foreclosure field.  He/she will know the tricks of dealing with these properties as well as what you need to watch out for along the way.  A savvy buyer paired with a knowledgeable realtor can get some amazing deals in today's market.  That being said, you had better do some homework before tackling any kind of distressed property.  If you don't know what a short sale is or what REO stands for, you need to do some down and dirty research of your own.  Remember that every situation has a silver lining.  The mortgage crisis and stagnant home values have created a situation that may not be repeated for a very long time.  Why not take advantage as an educated buyer looking to make a deal.  If you have any questions you may feel free to contact me anytime.  If not me, talk to someone you trust because I cannot stress enough that these properties need to be researched, inspected, and understood thoroughly before making a move.

The measure will allow troubled homeowners to refinance high interest mortgages with government-backed loans.  It strengthens Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and provides $3.9 million in neighborhood grants.  It is an attempt to stabilize struggling financial markets.

Homeowners who cannot afford their current home mortgage payments will be able to refinance into more affordable government-backed loans. Buyers will have to qualify for the new loans, showing that they meet underwriting guidelines for the loans.   The bill is expected to help up to 400,000 struggling homeowners.   

Home foreclosures are at a record high, financial markets are nervous and the general economy is in a slump.  The bill is an attempt to slow foreclosures and decrease the impact of foreclosures on the sagging national economy.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, who insure non-governmental loans, and are in financial difficulty, are also expected to get a boost from this bill. 

More information is available at http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25848449/.

ALL SELLER FUNDED DOWN PAYMENT ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS WILL LIKELY END IN THE VERY NEAR FUTURE.

One of the most popular loans of late was an FHA loan utilizing a program such as AmeriDream. This allowed the seller to contribute to pay for the buyers required 3% down payment as well as closing costs and prepaids (making it essentially a zero down loan). It now appears very likely that the Mortgage "Rescue" Bill that is about to be approved in Congress will end that program. Sellers will still be allowed to pay for closing costs and prepaids but all borrowers would need to come up with a minimum of a 3.5% down payment from their own funds or a gift from a family member (the 3.5% down payment is an increase from the old 3% requirement for FHA). The end date for the program seems like it will be October 1. It is unclear whether that means that you would need a signed contract before that date or whether that means that you would need a completed, closed transaction by that date or even earlier. In any case, you and your potential buyers will want to move quickly in order to utilize this program since this will eliminate a lot of potential buyers from our market. Here is a link to cnn.com that has some details about everything in this Mortgage "Rescue" Bill.

So, as noted above, if you've been considering a purchase using seller down-payment assistance, you should move quickly before this benefit is gone. Or convince a relative to kick in towards your down-payment.

Update 7/26: The Senate has passed the mortgage rescue bill, and now goes to the President for final approval.

Update 7/30: President Bush signed the bill into law.

Copyright © 2008 Rod Rebello
www.TempeAgentNews.com