For the past few weeks, I've added my two cents about the Chargers' woes, but after yesterday's embarrassing loss to the Miami Dolphins, I feel it's time to explain the situation a little clearer.

If you're all searching through the game recap and stat line for the reasons why San Diego lost yesterday, you can stop. There's only one reason why this talented team sits at 2-3: coaching. That's it. GM AJ Smith, and all his wonderful ability to evaluate talent and personnel, loses that touch when it comes to dealing with and hiring head coaches. Two years ago, his long accounted rift with then coach Marty Schottenheimer came to an end when Smith decided to send Marty to the unemployment line after he allowed both of his coordinators to leave and tried to hire his younger brother to take over the offense. Both men wanted control and unfortunately for Marty, a lifetime of ineptness in the post season shifted the power to Smith's favor and team President Dean Spanos opted to let his coach go. This coming off a 14-2 season mind you.

So it was time to find a coach, or, in AJ Smith's world, a puppet, to head the most talented team in the league. He struck gold in Norv Turner. This move was scrutinized for months, but team officials, who tried desperately to hide Norv Turner's career record to that point, which was 58-82, told everyone that Turner had never had the opportunity to coach such talented players and that's why his record was so poor; they basically took accountability for Norv's record and threw it squarely on his former players' shoulders.

As expected, to most knowledgeable people of the sport, the 2007 season got off to a rocky start. They were 1-3 after the first quarter of the season, 5-5 after 10, and only at .500 because Adam Viniateri missed a GW chip shot to give the Bolts a 26-24 win over Indy, and then proceeded to rattle off 6 more victories, with the Texans and Lions being victims along the way. Thanks to the softness of the AFC West, SD rolled to its 2nd consecutive AFC West crown (3rd in 4 years) and hosted a 1st round game in the playoffs.

In came the Titans, with their dominant defense and anemic offense, led by Vince Young. Had TN had any sort of an offense, they'd have stolen this game, but after leading 6-0 at the half way point, they failed to score again and SD managed to put the ball in the end zone late to pull away and win 17-6. Had they lost here, they'd have been calling for both GM and coach's head. Next stop: Indy. The Chargers won this game unexpectedly because Tomlinson came out early with a knee injury and then during the crucial 4th quarter, Rivers was out with a knee injury as well, leaving an ominous backfield of Billy Volek and Michael Turner/Darren Sproles. The Chargers, for whatever reason, own Indy, have won every match up since 2005, and that continued on this day. The final score was 28-24. The following week, in the AFC Championship Game, the Patriots beat them again 21-12 to advance to the Super Bowl.

After this, everyone suddenly changed his perspective about Turner and the ship appeared to be right. How long ago this seems and how wrong they were. After 5 games into this 2008 season, the same questions are being asked about this team as they were at this time last year; why can't they get it going? I've heard people who are quick to blame the loss of Steroidman (Merriman) as the reason for the defenses woes. Wrong. Scheming can help deal with that; the Giants haven't lost a beat and they're playing without Strahan (future HOF'er retired) and Osi (Pro Bowler on IR) from last year. The offense can't get it going and they're stacked with pro bowlers at nearly every position. Tomlinson, who was everybody's MVP after his 31 TDs in 2006, didn't all of a sudden forget how to run, and don't attribute too much to the toe injury; he had a lot of troubles last year when completely healthy. The fact is that Turner is a horrific game planner; his O-line isn't creating holes for Tomlinson and the running game to run through and the team looks lethargic in the 1st of half of games. When other teams come in that are nearly comparable in talent, if the coach is good, he'll usually have a decided advantage over San Diego.

That may happen this week, in the " what was supposed to be the much anticipated rematch of last year's AFC Championship Game." Had Brady remained healthy, I don't think there would've been that much hoopla surrounding this game considering San Diego is coming in with a sub .500 record. Regardless, I see SD winning this one at home to even their record to 3-3, but nothing is given in this league. If they can get to .500, they're still in it; Denver's not running away with anything, but if you look back throughout the history of the game, you'll find plenty of very good/great coaches who won it all when they had great players, and plenty of very good/great coaches who won when they had only good players, but you'll be hard pressed to find any teams full of great players who won it with poor coaching, which is what San Diego is trying to do.

The lesson to Smith is that the coach is equally, if not more important than the men lining up every Sunday, and as long as Turner is the man steering the ship, the glacier is never too far out of sight.

It appears the reward was much greater than the risk, however, as Rodgers has thrown for 313 yards and three touchdowns against Atlanta despite having a right shoulder that's less than 100 percent.

His third score went to Donald Lee on a 4-yard pass.

In Miami, Ronnie Brown had another solid stat line with 125 yards and one score in a win over San Diego. If Brown is this good coming off ACL surgery, how in the world did Ricky Williams ever win the top spot on the depth chart?

Brown is re-emerging into a fantasy star. LaDainian Tomlinson is another story entirely.

He rushed for a mere 35 yards in the loss. And before you send me e-mails about whether or not you should sit him next week, just remember that he's still one of the elite runners in fantasy football.

You'd have to have a sick backfield or play in a 6-team league to ever sit Tomlinson.

The PiRate Pro Ratings

The NFL version of the PiRate Ratings is not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL version is strictly a statistical formula than could be reproduced by anybody who knew the equations I use to devise the formula.  No subjective data is used.

The formula combines scoring margin, strength of schedule, and early in the season, last year's scoring margin and strength of schedule.  As the season progresses, last year's data decreases to where it has little effect by mid-October. 

The Mean Ratings

Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations.  Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule.  Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents' rushing and passing.  Point values are assigned based on each set of data.  The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970's and 1980's.  The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.

The Bias Ratings

The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings.  The five ratings are not given equal weight.  The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%.  I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.

NFL Previews-Week Five

Kansas City (1-3) at Carolina (3-1)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperatures 75-80

PiRate:         Carolina by 25  

Mean:           Carolina by 18

Bias:             Carolina by 16

Vegas:        Carolina by 9½         -420/+350  

Ov/Un:        38

Strategy:     Kansas City +19½ in a 10-point teaser, Carolina +½ in a 10-point teaser, Over 28 in a 10-point teaser

Kansas City looked like a different team against Denver last week, but the Chiefs won't run the ball for 200+ yards this week against the Panthers' defense.  Damon Huard completed a bunch of safe passes last week, but I believe he will have to throw the ball downfield more to give his team a chance to win Sunday.

Carolina is not the type of team that will beat an opponent 35-10.  Their 15-point win over Atlanta last week is about the limit of their ability to win.  The Panthers should move to 4-1, but I think this will be an entertaining game for most of the day.  I'm looking for Carolina to win by about 10-14 points in the neighborhood of 27-17 to 27-13.   

Tennessee (4-0) at Baltimore (2-1)

Time:           1PM EDT            

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature around 65

PiRate:        Tennessee by 6

Mean:           Tennessee by 2

Bias:             Tennessee by 1

Vegas:        Tennessee by 3        -150/+130

Ov/Un:        33

Strategy:     Under 43 in 10-point teaser, Baltimore +13 in 10-point teaser          

If you really loved the old Packers-Vikings games back in the days when Coaches Lombardi and Grant went head-to-head, this is a must-watch game for you.  These two teams are no longer in the same division, but the rivalry is still as strong as ever.  They hate each other, and it will lead to a death-match in Baltimore. 

The Ravens just don't allow teams to run the ball, and Tennessee is one of the most run-dependent teams in the NFL.  The Titans have little if any weakness on the defensive side, and they will throw multiple blitz packages at rookie quarterback Joe Flacco.  I cannot see either team winning by more than a touchdown, so I am playing the home team in a 10-point teaser.  Additionally, since I believe they are going to beat each other up, I expect the final score to be around 17-13.  Keep an eye on the Raven's injuries in this game.  They must play at Indianapolis next week, and they are almost guaranteed to bounce.  The Titans have a bye next week, and they couldn't have asked for a better time for it.

San Diego (2-2) at Miami (1-2)

Time:           1PM EDT            

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Scattered thunderstorms, windy, temperature in low 80's

PiRate:        San Diego by 14

Mean:           San Diego by 5

Bias:             San Diego by 4

Vegas:        San Diego by 6½            -260/+220

Ov/Un:        45

Strategy:     Miami +16½ in 10-point teaser, Over 35 in 10-point teaser  

Miami actually used a real single wing offense with unbalanced line two weeks ago against New England, and the Patriots were caught with their pants down.  The Dolphins scored four touchdowns in just a handful of single wing plays, including a brilliant touchdown pass from the hands of tailback Ronnie Brown.  What's next? Is Brown going to punt out of this formation and become a true triple-threat? 

Anything that upsets a teams' normal weekly routine has an effect on the scoreboard on Sunday.  The Chargers aren't the best defensive team in the AFC, and they have been forced to prepare for the possibility that the Dolphins will not only use it again this week, but they might have added more to the package.  I expect Miami to run this old-time formation about five to eight times, as any more usage will kill its effectiveness.

For these reasons, I think this should be a higher than expected scoring game, and Miami will stay in this game for longer than most people expect.  In fact, if the Dolphins' defense can force Phillip Rivers to beat them instead of LaDainian Tomlinson, they have a decent shot at another upset.

Seattle (1-2) at New York Giants (3-0)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Mostly sunny, light wind, temperature around 65

PiRate:        New York by 18

Mean:           New York by 9

Bias:             New York by 10

Vegas:        New York by 7          -330/+270

Ov/Un:        43½

Strategy:     New York -7, New York +3 in 10-point teaser, Over 33½ in 10-point teaser

Both teams had two weeks to prepare for this game.  The last time these two teams played a game when both they and their opponents had two weeks to prepare were their two most recent Super Bowl games.  The Giants fared rather well in their Super Bowl, while the Seahawks did not.  That's not the only reason I like the Giants this week.  Seattle just doesn't show up when they travel from coast to coast.  Buffalo drilled them 34-10 in week one, so the trend continues in 2008.

New York can realistically think about a 6-0 start before heading to Pittsburgh in week eight.  The Giants are winning games in the same manner as they finished 2007-with strong defense and ball-control offense.  They are emulating the Packers of the 1960's.  This team is not resting on its laurels, and Coach Tom Coughlin, like Vince Lombardi, is too tough of a guy to allow the team to just show up expecting to win.  I think the Giants can win by 14 or more points in this game, so I like them straight up as well as in a teaser.  I'm considering teasing the Over because 34 total points is easily possible in this game.

Washington (3-1) at Philadelphia (2-2)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature around 65

PiRate:        Pick

Mean:           Philadelphia by 4

Bias:             Pick

Vegas:        Philadelphia by 6            -260/+220

Ov/Un:        42

Strategy:     Washington +16 in 10-point teaser, Over 32 in 10-point teaser, Philadelphia -260, Philadelphia +4 in 10-point teaser           

They're talking do-or-die up in the City of Brotherly Love.  While the Phillies are getting the headlines, the Eagles cannot afford to begin the season 2-3 in the league's top division.  It's possible that three NFC East teams will make the playoffs for the second straight year, but the Eagles could be the odd team out once again if they fall two games behind the other three teams.

The Redskins rode an emotional high all week after thumping the Cowboys in Big D last Sunday.  They can only bounce this week, but this will still be a close game.  Washington has played four close games so far, while the Eagles have played three consecutive nail-biters after toying with the St. Louis Lambs.  There's no reason to think this game will be any different.  It should be exciting, but I think the Eagles will be ready to stay in the playoff hunt.  I'm looking at a final score of Philadelphia 24  Washington 20.

Indianapolis (1-2) at Houston (0-3)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature near 85 (this game will be an outdoor game due to roof damage at Reliant Stadium)

PiRate:        Indianapolis by 5

Mean:           Indianapolis by 1

Bias:             Indianapolis by 5

Vegas:        Indianapolis by 3            -170/+150

Ov/Un:        47

Strategy:     Indianapolis -3, Indianapolis +7 in 10-point teaser, Over 37 in 10-point teaser, Indianapolis -170

Either the Colts are going to get off the mat and begin to play like the Colts that we all know, or this is going to quickly become a long season in Indy.  They are heading into a shootout in Houston this week, as the Texans finally get a home game.  Reliant Stadium has undergone some changes thank to Ike's Construction Company.  That blowhard Ike took off the roof and temporarily turned it into an open venue. 

If Houston wins this game, Peyton's place will be last in the AFC South.  I just cannot see that happening, especially when Indianapolis had a week off to prepare.  The Colts should square their record and win this game by at least a touchdown.  I also think this week will see them reaching 28 points for the first time this year, so I like teasing the Over.  My guess at the final score is 28-17 Indianapolis.

Atlanta (2-2) at Green Bay (2-2)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Scattered showers, light wind, temperature in low 50's

PiRate:        Green Bay by 7

Mean:           Green Bay by 7

Bias:             Green Bay by 7

Vegas:        No Line        (Aaron Rodgers ?)

Ov/Un:        No Line

Strategy:     N/A

As of Friday morning, Aaron Rodgers is still questionable for this game, so no official line has been issued.  Rodgers is probably worth 5-7 points, so if Matt Flynn starts and plays, Green Bay is in trouble.  The Falcons are capable of winning a low-scoring game on the road with two rookie quarterbacks playing.  The weather may also force both teams to stick to a ground game.

Chicago (2-2) at Detroit (0-3)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

PiRate:        Chicago by 27

Mean:           Chicago by 12

Bias:             Chicago by 15

Vegas:        Chicago by 3½         -200/+170

Ov/Un:        44½  

Strategy:     Detroit +13½ in a 10-point teaser, Under 54½ in 10-point teaser

Chicago has a chance to take over first place in the old black and blue division.  If Rodgers cannot go for Green Bay, Chicago could easily be alone at the top of the standings if they can edge an old, weak rival this week.

Don't expect Detroit to hand over the game to the Bears.  The Lions can score points, and they could force Chicago to reach the 30-point mark to beat them.  The Lions have had an extra week to prepare for this game, and they could be this week's Kansas City Chiefs.  I don't believe Chicago is capable of blowing Detroit off their home field, so I like the 10-point teaser in this one.  Since I believe the Bears will try to control the clock and hold the score down, I also like the Under in a teaser.  This game could easily be a 24-21 affair.  Even if it goes to overtime at 24-24, a touchdown won't kill the teaser.  However, a big day by Devin Hester and/or Calvin Johnson could push the total over 55.

Tampa Bay (3-1) at Denver (3-1)

Time:           4:05 PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Isolated thunderstorms, light wind, temperature around 60

PiRate:        Denver by 1

Mean:           Tampa Bay by 8

Bias:             Tampa Bay by 1

Vegas:        Denver by 3       -170/+150

Ov/Un:        47½

Strategy:     Tampa Bay +13 in 10-point teaser, Over 37½ in 10-point teaser

This should be a quite entertaining game.  I call it close to a 50-50 tossup.  The Broncos were tamed in Kansas City last week, and they should be more focused for this game and not suffer a four turnover repeat.

Tampa Bay's offense has improved a little every week thus far, and the Bucs have to be considered a serious contender for the NFC Championship.  Their defense is strong enough to keep Jay Cutler and company from scoring 30 points, but I think Denver is still capable of scoring 24-28 points.

Denver's defense has yet to prove they can stop a competent offense, and Tampa Bay should easily top 20 points in this one.  Denver has a 55-60% chance of winning outright, but they won't win convincingly, and the game should still be up for grabs well into the fourth quarter.  Thus, I like the underdog Bucs getting double digits in a 10-point teaser, and I like the Over in a teaser.

Cincinnati (0-4) at Dallas (3-1)

Time:           4:15 PM EDT            

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, windy, temperature in upper 80's

PiRate:        Dallas by 11

Mean:           Dallas by 20

Bias:             Dallas by 17

Vegas:        Dallas by 17              -1500/+1100

Ov/Un:        44

Strategy:     Cincinnati +27 in 10-point teaser, Over 34 in 10-point teaser

This is purely a numbers' pick here.  I don't think Cincinnati has a chance to win this game, even if Carson Palmer is able to play.  I don't think they can stay within 10 points of Dallas even if Palmer has a 250 yard passing day.  However, 27 points is just plain ridiculous to get in a teaser.  Dallas could jump out to a 28-0 lead and then cruise to a 38-14 win, and they wouldn't cover at 27.

The Cowboys have an excellent shot at topping 35 points and satisfying the Over in a teaser, but for our sake let's hope we get that 38-14 blowout and nothing worse.

Buffalo (4-0) at Arizona (2-2)

Time:           4:15 PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, windy, temperature around 80

PiRate:        Buffalo by 5

Mean:           Buffalo by 6

Bias:             Buffalo by 1

Vegas:        Pick              Arizona -115, Buffalo -105

Ov/Un:        44½  

Strategy:     Arizona Pk, Arizona +10 in 10-point teaser, Over 34½ in 10-point teaser

I've been keying on this game all week.  I think the Cardinals should be favored by at least a field goal, and it looks like the start of a nice gift as a pick.  Right off the bat, a 10-point teaser looks like a 13-point cushion to me. 

Buffalo is a good team, but they are not so good that they can go on the road 2,000 miles and beat a playoff-quality team.  I just don't see the Bills at 5-0 on Monday morning. 

Arizona has only played one home game, and they looked strong in their destruction of the Dolphins.  When Miami thumped New England the following week, the 21-point Cardinals' victory looked even better.  Throw in the fact that the Bills are making a second consecutive road trip, and I think they will be just a little off this week.  I like the Cardinals to win outright at home, and I could see this one becoming a shootout.  My guess is Arizona will win by a score similar to 35-28.

New England (2-1) at San Francisco (2-2)

Time:           4:15 PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Showers likely, windy, temperature in mid to upper 60's

PiRate:        New England by 3

Mean:           San Francisco by 5

Bias:             New England by 1

Vegas:        New England by 3           -200/+170

Ov/Un:        41

Strategy:     San Francisco +13 in 10-point teaser

This game is this week's toughest for me to gauge.  New England lost big at home against Miami two weeks ago.  With two weeks to prepare for the 49er passing game, the Patriots' defense should be up to the challenge.  I think they will hold J. T. O'Sullivan below his average of 240 passing yards per game. 

San Francisco has moved the ball this year, but the 49ers have struggled to put points on the board at times.  Their current average of 14.2 yards gained per point scored is not going to get them into the playoffs, but it could allow them to win this game.  They are likely to struggle to reach 300 yards in this game.  If they gain 280 total yards, that would mean they would fail to score 20 points.  However, the Patriots haven't scored 20 points in any of their first three games.  Throw in the fact that they are traveling west more than 3,000 miles, and the edge begins to tilt toward the upstart home team.

Whether or not San Francisco can win and possibly stay in a first place tie in the weak NFC West is up for debate, but I cannot see New England winning by 14 points.  Thus, I think taking the 49ers in a 10-point teaser is the way to go with this game.

Pittsburgh (3-1) at Jacksonville (2-2)

Time:           8:15 PM EDT

TV:               NBC

Forecast:     Clear, windy, temperature dropping from 80 to the low 70's

PiRate:        Jacksonville by 5

Mean:           Jacksonville by 1

Bias:             Jacksonville by 2

Vegas:        Jacksonville by 4             -215/+185

Ov/Un:        36

Strategy:     Over 36, Over 26 in 10-point teaser, Jacksonville +6 in 10-point teaser 

If you have Ben Roethlisberger on your fantasy team, you could see him throw the ball 40-50 times this week.  I'm not into fantasies, so the only way that could help me is to see Big Ben connect on 25-30 of those passes for 300-400 yards and a couple of touchdowns.  What that would do is make this game a higher than expected offensive exhibition.

Jacksonville likes to hold onto the ball for long drives and take chunks off the clock, but I don't think the Jaguars can do that against the Steelers' defense.  The Jags gave up 27 to Houston, and Pittsburgh should top 20 as well even with no running attack whatsoever.  What it means to me is that Jacksonville should score points aplenty this week and win by a score of something like 31-24.  The Over 26 becomes my top priority in a 10-point teaser parlay, and if I was an aggressive guy, I might play this in every parlay.  Since my imaginary bank account is up by over a grand from the start of the season, I won't be liberal even with play money, so I will use it just once.

Minnesota (1-3) at New Orleans (2-2)

Time:           8:30 PM EDT Monday

TV:               ESPN

Forecast:     Dome

PiRate:        New Orleans by 13

Mean:           New Orleans by  4

Bias:             New Orleans by  7

Vegas:        New Orleans by 3           -215/+185

Ov/Un:        46½  

Strategy:     Over 36½ in 10-point teaser 

Monday night games tend to be higher than average scoring games.  New Orleans can score points with anybody in the league, and the Vikings can score points when their running game gets untracked.

Adrian Peterson is facing a Saints' defense that surrendered 82 rushing yards in 16 attempts to Frank Gore, 65 yards in 11 attempts to Selvin Young, 96 yards on 21 attempts to Clinton Portis, and 91 yards on 10 attempts to backup Buc runner Earnest Graham.  Look for A.P. to run the ball 25 times for 150-200 yards in this game.  Minnesota will reach their season-to-date high point on the scoreboard Monday night; the Vikings should hit or top the 24-point mark.

Will 24 points be enough to win at the Superdome?  I'm not sure, but I am sure without a doubt that the Saints will top 14.  24 plus 14 means this game should easily go Over in a 10-point teaser.  Let's lay off any side in this one and watch our Over win early in the second half.

The Imaginary Bank Account Turns A Profit For A Fourth Straight Week

Four weeks does not a season make, but I must admit I am quite pleased with how my picks against the spread have fared so far.  I not only made it a perfect four for four in winning weeks, I finished better than 70% for the second time in three weeks.  My picks finished 5-2-2 for 71.4% for the week, and those two pushes were on third parts of teasers.  For the season, my record against the spread stands at 27-12-3 for 69.2%, and my bank account added another $260 to make the new profit $1,265 for the season.  My return on investment is now 30.1%.  I am going to stick with what has been winning, namely 10-point teaser parlays.  I will use that 10-point change to turn favorites into underdogs and force favorites to blow out their opponents to beat me.  I will tease the totals line to give me very opportunistic numbers.

Here are my wagers for week five (all wagered to win $100):

1.    New York Giants -7 vs. Seattle

2.    Philadelphia -260 vs. Washington

3.    Indianapolis -3 vs. Houston

4.    Indianapolis -170 vs. Houston

5.    Arizona Pk vs. Buffalo

6.    10-point teaser

       a.    Carolina +½ vs. Kansas City  

       b.    Baltimore +13 vs. Tennessee

       c.    Miami +16½ vs. San Diego

7.    10-point teaser

       a.    Kansas City & Carolina Over 28

       b.    Miami & San Diego Over 35

       c.    New York Giants +3 vs. Seattle

8.    10-point teaser

       a.    Washington +16 vs. Philadelphia

       b.    Indianapolis +7 vs. Houston

       c.    Detroit +13½ vs. Chicago

9.    10-point teaser

       a.    Detroit & Chicago Under 54½ 

       b.    Tampa Bay +13 vs. Denver

       c.    Jacksonville +6 vs. Pittsburgh

10.  10-point teaser

       a.    Tampa Bay & Denver Over 37½ 

       b.    Cincinnati & Dallas Over 34

       c.    Arizona +10 vs. Buffalo

11.  10-point teaser

       a.    Cincinnati +27 vs. Dallas

       b.    Arizona & Buffalo Over 34½

       c.    Pittsburgh & Jacksonville Over 26

AND REMEMBER!!!  Do not use these picks for real.  I have no real money on the line in this mathematical experiment.  I won't lose a penny if all nine wagers lose this week, so you shouldn't risk a penny on these picks either.  This is strictly for fun.

Chargers - 6 1/2 vs Dolphins

Having won two games in a row, the San Diego Chargers have seemingly righted their ship. Or have they? The Chargers' wins this season have hardly been impressive. While the scores look lopsided, 48-29 against the Jets and 28-18 versus the Raiders, San Diego (2-2) let both opponents hang around in the game way too long for most fans' liking, especially taking into account the team's last second losses to Carolina and Denver. In both of their wins, the Chargers have fallen behind and had to fight their way back into the game.

Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins (1-2) return from their bye week with the momentum of giving the New England Patriots their first regular season loss since 2006.  Ronnie Brown went crazy and became a fantasy footballers dream in that game, running for four touchdowns and throwing for a fifth touchdown in Foxboro.  The Dolphins, who looked like one of the worst teams in the NFL prior to Week 3, gained some hope with Brown’s wonderful game in the upset over the Pats.  Still, it will be hard for Brown to duplicate that kind of success, even against San Diego's 28th ranked team defense.

The key matchup in this one may be San Diego's prolific offense against Miami's serviceable defense.  Miami will be able to score against San Diego, but will their 15th ranked defense be able to stop LaDainian Tomlinson, Philip Rivers and company enough to put them in a position for the win?

This is a homecoming for Chargers' receiver Chris Chambers, who spent his first six years in the NFL in South Beach before a 2007 trading deadline deal sent him to San Diego. Chambers became a star in 2005 game against Buffalo when he hauled in 15 passes for 238 yards against Buffalo. The Chargers would love for Chamber's homecoming to be just as productive.

InSpin.com

Okay, first things first: I suppose I can take away the crown I gave to Denver last week and finally give Tampa and Tennessee some props. This is why the NFL is so great: Dallas, Green Bay and Denver all go down, Buffalo and Tennessee are 4-0 and Larry Johnson suddenly looks like Larry Johnson again….gotta love it!

Now that I’ve admitted my fallibility (I know, my world is falling apart too), let’s get on to some additional fallible analysis:

Cleveland @ Cincinnati (aka: The Someone had to Win Bowl): Well, I guess no one had to win technically, but this game nonetheless lived up to this statement. Ugh. What the hell is going on with the AFC North!!?? I gotta tell you, I’m still  clinging to the idea that this division was becoming solid; it’s ridiculous, i know. These teams are awful, Pittsburgh seems to be collapsing and Baltimore is a year or two away. But hey, at least CJ finally scored….he’s NOT gonna be in Cinci next year by the way. I don’t know, I gotta give up on it. This division is terrible and Pittsburgh fans should be celebrating their victory now, despite how bad their team looks.

Houston @ Jacksonville: I don’t know how to read this game. Did the Texans play well? Did Jacksonville play poorly? I don’t think so. What we saw were two so-so teams. Jacksonville’s not as good as they should be, and Houston showed that they’re knocking on mediocrity’s door. It’s tough; I really like both of these teams. This is a great win for Jacksonville because right now any win is a great win. But they really needed to come away looking better than they did. Garrard, however, did look like his old self, and kicker Josh Scobee is showing himself to be Mr. Clutch; he’s seriously this team's MVP. Houston on the other hand….I just don’t know. They seem to always rise to the occasion just enough to lose in a close one. Schaub looked great against a solid D and the team didn’t turn the ball over, but they still lost. I don’t know how the Texans will take this game. If Jacksonville was really legit, they’d probably be glad they played them so close, but the Jags are still struggling. Tough one to read.

Atlanta @ Carolina: I gotta say the NFC South looks pretty damn exciting: Carolina is back baby!! I don’t know how they fell off to begin with. But this was a must win for them, and they looked good doing it. Granted: a win against Atlanta isn’t especially noteworthy, but it nonetheless showed that Carolina is legit. Not allowing a TD is always good, especially against a team with rb’s as good as Turner and Dunn. I still like the Falcons though. They didn’t turn the ball over, didn’t get blown out and are really developing. Matt Ryan is doing everything that he should be and I’d be pleased as a fan. The South should be tight folks!

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Denver @ Kansas City: Yeah, I don’t know either. But here it is: (and I realize this might be taking the easy way out) this game was a fluke. I know, it’s too easy. But come on, KC is still awful and Denver is still good. Not to take anything away from the Cheifs (they beat the team I hate the most!) and not to let Denver off the hook (this is like losing to Montana State), but this was the exception to the rule. This is why the NFL rocks: great teams lose to bad teams. How many teams have won a Superbowl without losing a game?….that’s right: one. Uno folks, its not exactly something that you can expect. Denver is still the best offense in the AFC, but that defense might be their death. This team is built for the regular season: good running and great passing. But playing in the howling wind late in the year with a defense like this? Its not a pretty picture.

San Francisco @ New Orleans: Okay, finally a game that made sense! Yeah, San Fran has a long way to go. But Frank Gore was solid in spite of the other 21 starters. The Saints looked like themselves: is good but not great. This team is so exciting on offense: Brees hit 9 different targets and Bush and Deuce complemented each other brilliantly. Surprisingly, the bright spot for them was their D: getting two picks, six sacks and not giving up a td till the 4^th qtr. Granted, they still gave up 17 pts. to a shabby team, but they got the job done. Again, the NFC South is gonna be fun to watch all season.

Arizona at NY Jets: Kurt Warner had two td’s, 472 yards and completed 70% of his passes…and was the lesser qb in this game. What the hell!? I realize this is a pass happy league and the hey-day of grinding it out on the ground is of a bygone era, but GOD!!! You have to run the ball more than 15 times. This Arizona offense is soooo weird. I mean, Favre through 6 td’s and the Jets still ran the ball almost twice as many times as Arizona! But, to be fair, Warner and his crew put up 35 pts and you really can’t ask for more than that. Now, they also had 6 (SIX!!!) turnovers which is totally unacceptable, but they did all they could to make up for it.  In short, 35 pts should win you a game, especially against the Jets. Obviously this loss is on Arizona's defense's hands. So what did we learn?? Well, Favre is still Favre, and the Cards need to think about getting some new defensive backs, ugh.

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Green Bay @ Tampa: Another fluke? I don’t think so. Green Bay was simply out played. Tampa really made a statement about their defense in this game. The Buc’s won this game straight up and deserve their due. As for the Pack, I’d cross my fingers about Rodgers; and not just because of his injury. He barely completed half his passes and threw three picks. But in reality, this says more about Tampa’s D than it does about Rodgers. Tampa is legit folks. I hope Rodgers is okay and would expect that he’ll rebound in a big way next week in Atlanta if he’s healthy.

Minnesota @ Tennessee: You know, I think I have to concede my error here. Tennessee’s D is really that good. WOW!  They're fast, strong and smart; its an extremely well-coached crew.  Now, they were up against a one-trick-pony Minnesota offense here, but they looked incredible. I gotta say, this team is a wild card. I don’t know how to read them still, but I’m starting to think they’re more solid than I give ‘em credit for. Benching Young is great for this team and their offense has looked much better without him. Putting up 30 pts against a stingy Vikings defense says a lot, especially with a back up qb. As for Minnesota, they’ve still got a long way to go. But this team will be good…give them time.

San Diego @ Oakland: You might say that Oakland should have won this game. After all, 25 of San Diego’s 28 points were scored in the 4^th qtr. On the other hand, Oakland could only manage one touchdown. Here’s the deal: you really can’t make too much of this game. It’s a divisional rivalry and these games are always unpredictable. Washington beat Dallas, Miami humiliated New England and Baltimore always plays Pittsburgh close, even in their worst seasons. I suppose the biggest thing is this: Tomlinson looked good, but not until late, Rivers looked bad and Oakland definitely has talent. But nothing definitive can be taken away from this game, except that divisional games are great to watch.

Buffalo @ St. Louis: Steven Jackson got in the endzone!!! God, what a day. But really, this is tough game to assess. I mean, Buffalo beat up on the Rams pretty good, but the numbers tells a different story. St. Louis had two turnovers, but Buffalo had one, the Rams had more than 100 more yards than the Bills on offense, both teams were terrible on 3^rd down conversions and the time of possession was relatively equally split. I don’t know, if I were a Buffalo fan I would be a little less than pleased with this game. But, a win is a win and they proved themselves in the 4^th qtr which any good team needs to do.

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Washington @ Dallas: We’re back to this divisional issue. Everyone wants to dethrone Dallas (a throne which was given to them by these same people) and give Washington their blessing. Can you really take that away from this game? Essentially, Dallas played poorly and Washington played well…and still only won by two. Now, give the ‘Skins their due. They fully exploited Dallas’ terrible secondary and dominated with their run game. I’d say the biggest take away from this game for Dallas is this: Jason Garrett is OVERRATED!!!! Yes, yes, the Lord’s Anointed has been called out. Listen, he’s a great coordinator, but he has an identity crisis. Whenever things aren’t going Dallas’ way they decide to throw on every down. It’s disgusting. This team has the best backfield tandem in the NFL and ran the ball 10 times... 10 TIMES!!! This is why Dallas lost. Washington’s offense played well, but a high power offense like Dallas’ should be able to match 26 pts. I mean, Felix Jones getting 0 touches!!!! Ugh…get it together Jason.

Philadelphia @ Chicago: An ugly game. The predictable basically happened here: Chi-town’s D looked great, but Philly managed to score a respectable amount against it. The difference here was Kyle Orton throwing 3 td’s in the 1^st half. 3 TD’S… BY KYLE ORTON! What the hell!?? It’s one thing for a Bear’s qb to have a fluke game like this, but quite another for an otherwise impressive Philly defense to be the victim! I don’t know what to make of it. A heartbreaker for the Eagles, who really should have won this game, but you never know with the Bears. If their D is at its best, all their offense needs is a little movement and they’ll be in the game with anyone. I like the Bears and they're a good qb away from being a great team.

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Baltimore @ Pittsburgh: I swear that the Steelers are the luckiest team in sports. They were outplayed for 90% of this game and still managed to win. I also have to admit that Baltimore looks better than what I gave them credit for, even though they lost. That defense proved it's still nasty (only giving up 16 pts) and Flacco looks legit. I think this team could be good, but the problem is that its offense will only start to become fully developed in a few years and by then their defense will be well passed its prime. Ugh, but who knows, if they can keep stocking the shelves on D the Ravens will be very good in the next few years. As for the Steelers, what can you say? They’re lucky. Ben and his O-line were completely owned by the Ravens’ D and the team only managed 71 rushing yards on 28 carries. The Steelers have gotten worse every week and they need to wake up in a bad way.

So when I'm getting questions in my live chats about whether to start LaDainian Tomlinson or Matt Forte, I get a little worried. Sure, Forte has been solid and has emerged into a terrific option.

But we're talking about LaDainian Tomlinson!

Even if he's looked a step slower at times or loses some carries to Darren Sproles, he's still the main man in fantasy land. He'd either have to be injured or on a bye to be on your bench. That's the bottom line.

Now there are some instances where you might want to sit a stud player, but those are few and far between. I understand that the temptation to make such a move can be great. I even found myself wondering if I should bench Brett Favre in favor of Jake Delhomme yesterday because of the inclement weather in New York.

Thank the good Lord I stuck with the old man.

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