So here is my post from my previous predictions and I will also look at how my viewpoint now varies.

Vault-

The Finalists-  Cheng Fei, Hong Su Jong, and Alicia Sacramone will be finalists.  Period.  There is no way I see them unable to qualify.  I also still think that Cheng and Hong can qualify even if they count a fall (assuming they both do the 6.5 A-score vaults).

Rounding out the other five spots I think will be Oksana Chusovitina and Jade Barbosa, both are very good vaulters, the same which I thought before.  Who else is doing well on the vaulting scene?  I am thinking at least one Russian will be in there, and I think Anna Pavlova is the front runner on that side.  They may even nab another spot, a couple girls featured on gymnast.com have some exceptional DTY's.

Differences from previous post- Elena Zamolodchikova isn't going, so she won't qualify.  Pretty much is the same.  Also, I think an Italian may possibly sneak in there, I have been hearing Amanar rumors about (I think) Carlotta Giovanni.

Guesstimate on the Medalists- Cheng, Hong, Sacramone. (No specific order)

Uneven Bars-

The Finalists- Without a doubt I think Nastia Liukin, He Kexin, and Yang Yilin will qualify.  I also think that Beth Tweddle, Ksenia Semenova, and (probably) Steliana Nistor will find themselves in there.

That leaves two spots left.  I think Marie Sophie Hindermann and Chellsie Memmel will do it.  The British have been getting a lot better on bars so maybe they will change this.  Who knows.

Differences from previous post- Seems I replaced Memmel for the thought of Daria Zygoba.

Guesstimate on the medalists- He, Yilin, Liukin.  (No specific order)

Beam-

Finalists- Without a doubt I think Shawn Johnson and Li Shanshan will make finals.  Rounding out the other six spots I think there will be one more American, two Russians, two Romanians, and probably another Chinese.  Although I would normally put Nastia in there automatically, I am not so sure anymore.  Memmel and Sacramone are capable of scoring higher due to higher A-scores, but we will have to see because I don't think they can match the execution scores of Liukin.  I also can't speak about how scoring will ride in Beijing because it always seems to vary.  The last World Championships seem to favor difficulty, but I have a feeling execution may be weighed a bit more.  Two Russians in the spot are between Pavolva, Semenova, and also Lyudmilla Yezhova  Grebenkova (if she is selected onto the team).    Steliana Nistor and Sandra Izbasa have room to sneak in there.   For the last Chinese member I would say Deng Linlin or maybe Cheng Fei.  I think there is room for Australia's Lauren Mitchell to come in there and bump someone out of this lineup.

Differences from previous post- Yulia Lozechko and Sui Lu are not on the teams, so aren't qualifying.  And orginally I didn't factor in Pavlova.  I also mentioned Stefani Bismpkou whom I now don't think will qualify but would LOVE to see qualify.  Mitchell wasn't in my orginal post either.

Guesstimate on the medalists- Johnson, Li, 2nd American (No specific order)

Floor-

Finalists- Shawn Johnson, Cheng Fei, and Sandra Izbasa  WILL be in this floor final.   I don't have Sacramone in there because at this point I think it is questionable that she will even make it!  It is quite possible (if all the upgrades do make that 6.5 or 6.4) for Memmel to bump her off the line here.  Now, if Sacramone upgrades (I hear her score will be at least a 6.4) then with clean routines I think Sacramone will be the one with the higher execution scores.  Regardless, one more American besides Johnson will advance to finals.  So there is half the lineup.  Others who have a shot at this final in my opinion are Daiane Dos Santos, Anna Pavlova, Dasha Joura, Beth Tweddle, Jiang Yuyuan, or even Yang Yilin.  I can't think of anyone else, I hear Cassy Vericel is still limping around.  I don't think Vanessa Ferrari will make it due to her foot making her A-score lower.  Out of those mentioned above, I would like to see the last four spots got to Dos Santos, Pavlova, and Joura.  I didn't pick a last person.  I am not sure.  And I keep thinking I am missing someone key.

Differences from previous post-  Not much.  Sui Lu was mentioned as a possibility and that's not happening.

Guesstimate on the Medalists- Cheng, Johnson, Izbasa.  (No specific order.  Note:  How happy I would be if Dos Santos won.)

Without a doubt it is going to be a blast.  I can't decide which EF I am most excited about.  Here is what I am generally looking forward to most in each event:

Vault-  Cheng Fei.  Hands down.  I want Olympic Glory for her.  Sacramone doing her absolute best, and of course the anticipation of her Amanar.  Chusovitina competing her last moments in her final Olympics.

Uneven Bars-  The race between the 7.7 A-score Club.  Without a doubt.  And because I am really thinking Memmel will be in the lineup, another lovely Memmel moment.

Beam-  Shawn Johnson competing.  Beam is also my favorite event usually.  It's the event with the most adrenaline for me to watch as it is the make or break event.  I really want Shawn to win gold here.

Floor-  Cheng and Johnson again make this for me.  But the list of competitors that I have the potential to see makes it quite thrilling.  Remember, I am one of those who loves the sentimental favorites.

I can't believe it all starts in just two weeks.  By the way, I have no idea what the text did to itself in this post.

Cheng Fei

Jiang Yuyuan

Yang Yilin

He Kexin

Deng Linlin

Pretty much what we expected as it is the same as the nominative roster.  I assume the alternates are Xiao Sha and He Ning

This is going to be one INTENSE team battle!  Two weeks from today the Olympic Games begin!

Team captain Cheng is the only returning 2004 Olympian but also the lone member of the 2006 World Championship-winning squad.

In China, gymnasts seem to flame out faster than they do elsewhere -- perhaps it's the emergence of stunning new talent like He and Deng that makes it that much harder to stay at the top.

Yang Yilin, 2008 Tianjin World Cup Event Finals, Uneven Bars:

Like the Chinese men's squad named earlier, this is a dream team -- if they can all hit in team finals. China's reputation there is sketchy. If they hit in event finals, the Chinese could sweep the gold medals.

Whether they win team gold or not, China has certainly locked up the depth prize this quad. Talk about a country whose B team could challenge for a medal --not making the final Olympic cut was Olympic veteran Zhang Nan, artistic Sui Lu, snazzy Pang Panpan, powerful Xiao Sha, and 2006 World team members Zhou Zhuoru, He Ning .

(I first saw a Li Ning clothing store in Suzhou during my third trip to China; I thought that the symbol was an upside-down ripoff of the Nike swoosh. My parents had to tell me who Li Ning was.)

Chellsie Memmel

Cheng Fei

Bridget Sloan

Dasha Joura

Jiang Yuyuan

Cheng Fei
Jiang Yuyuan
Yang Yilin
He Kexin
Li Shanshan
Deng Linlin

Although no alternates were announced to my knowledge apparently they are:

1, Xiao Sha

2. He Ning

3, Sui Lu

Congratulations to the Chinese girls. That is pretty much what was expected, though the last time I blogged about this I simply forgot about Deng Linlin. I think she is a good choice as she is decently a solid AAer, and more importantly capable of a good beam score which is what I believe she was mainly chosen for.

No time to blog further. I am working on a really nice post, and beginning tomorrow I will be looking all over the place to find out selection camp info. I should find information by Thursday or Friday. This is a closed event, but information always seems to leak :) Let's hope it does! Speaking of that, anyone know the status of Shayla Worley? Because I do believe a healthy Shayla (who hits WELL during the selection camp competition) will go to Beijing.  But we will have to see what happens!

Cheng Fei
Li Shanshan
Yang Yilin
Jiang Yuyuan
He Kexin
Deng Linlin

Alternates: Xiao Sha, He Ning, Sui Lu

WTF.

Damn it, I wanted He Ning on the team! BOO!

*grumbles*

BTW- gymnast.com has a great rundown and a "virtual meet" which is definitely worth looking at.

First the US team:

In addition to Shawn Johnson, Nastia Liukin, Alicia Sacramone, Chellsie Memmel, and Samantha Peszek, here is each athlete in the running:

Jana Bieger

Positives- Outside of her routines, Jana has everything you want out of an athlete on the Olympic Team; she is consistent and handles the pressure well. She also is known on the international scene and is a triple silver medalist.

Negatives- She has a lower start value than others do that are competing for this very coveted spot. And she also is questionable in the B-score area in the opinion of many. (Which is the main reason some of that scoring drama irked me, we don't really know where she stands internationally)

My Overall Opinion- I don't know if I am being sentimental over my recent encounter with her, but I think she will get the spot if Shayla Worley is still too injured. I think Jana can be counted on to do her very best, which is really important because I believe the US can't count major mistakes to beat China. (Unless the Chinese count like three falls but that is another story). Furthermore, if Jana were to eek out just two more tenths on her A-score (making it a 6.8) I think she has the spot without a doubt.

Shayla Worley

Postives- Shayla has World Championship experience and we know she can score well internationally. She can also bring in an A-score as high as 7.0. (At least I want to say I heard that).

Negatives- Others have said it and so will I; Shayla may be the Hollie Vise of 2008. Taking a chance with an injured athlete is NOT what the US wants to be doing that this point. Better to have a 15.6ish score from Jana than to count a fall.

My Overall Opinion- If Shayla's health is in much better condition and she HITS at the Selection Camp, I think she will be taken over Jana. Every tenth counts, and Shayla has the potential to bring in bigger numbers than Jana.

Ivana Hong

Positives- Ivana has very pretty form and extension.

Negatives- Unfortunately, the negatives really outweigh the positives here. Ivana hasn't been incredibly consistent (when compared to Jana, and has a lower A-score. More importantly though, after her bar routine being ripped to pieces in Stuttgart last year, we don't want to take those chances again in Beijing with her new routine.

My Overall Opinion- I think Ivana may be an alternate, but I do not see her as part of this team.

Bridget Sloan

Postives- Bridget has a very decent A-score, and when she hits she scores quite well.

Negatives- She doesn't have a lot of international experience in my opinion. She was the alternate and didn't compete in Stuttgart. She also had a poorer showing at Trials, scoring lower both nights than she did at Nationals.

My Overall Opinion- She only has a tenth more in A-score than Jana, and her performance I think is a bigger risk than Jana's will be. However, I think that she is absolutely going to be at least a traveling alternate.

Keep in mind that I believe that this 6th spot is solely based on bars. Whichever athlete gets this spot will only be going to count a good bars score in the Team Final. I really think it all depends on performances between Jana and Shayla at the Camp.

Why I believe Spot #5 is taken by Samantha Peszek:

With super strong floor showings from Chellsie, Samantha, and even Nastia on Floor at Trials, I think this spot is for the 3rd best vaulter. Peszek has that sealed. She is consistent and I really believe the best overall. Although I have heard that Corrie Lothrop is working on an Amanar, I don't think The Powers That Be want to take that chance. Shawn is one of the most consistent athletes in the world and look how long she has been working to get that vault right. And Lothrop is an unknown and has little experience internationally. Although Ivana and Sloan have DTY's Peszek is the most consistent. One more note, although I love Mattie Larson, I think she may be a good alternate for her vault and especially floor status. But I just don't see her getting the spot over Peszek.

And now onto China...

It is assumed that the locks for the Chinese Team are Cheng Fei, He Kexin, Jiang Yuyuan, and Yang Yilin, which leaves two spots open. Let's look at their gaps:

Vault- Cheng, Jiang, Yang/He.

Bars- He, Yang, Jiang

Beam- Cheng (I really think she will be used here), GAP, GAP.

Floor- Cheng, Jiang, Yang

Overall Analysis: Look familiar? China's got almost the same problem on beam that the US has on bars. So with two spots open, I think it is quite likely that these spots will be determined by beam. Here are the possibilities:

Li Shanshan

Postives- Li has the highest start value in the world on beam (or at least as far as I know!) She was on the World Championship Team last year and is won the silver medal in Event Finals WITH A FALL. That is when you know you are good on an apparatus; although there have been AA wins with a fall, she is the only one to medal in EF with a fall.

Negatives- Li is not known for her consistency. A fall is is bad for the morale of the team and with no major errors China will win the Team Final.

My Overall Opinion- They have to take her. Even with a fall she can post one of the highest scores in the world. At this point, I would put her on my team.

Xiao Sha

Postives- She has international experience and has a 6.9 or 7.0 A-score.

Negatives- She is also known to have consistency issues.

My overall Opinion- She is the other athlete I would add. A fall would still put her above a 15 I think.

Sui Lu

Postives- Very high A-score on beam (6.9).

Negatives- Very little international experience and has not been consistent in international competitions.

My Overall Opinion- I wouldn't take her. Good alternate because she has a great SV on Floor as well.

Deng Linlin

Positives- Deng has a high A-score on beam (6.9-7.1) and she recently did quite well at the Moscow World Cup in May, winning both beam and floor showing that she can be a reasonable backup on floor as well.

Negatives- Doesn't have as much international experience as some, and isn't known for her consistency either.

My Overall Opinion- I think this spot is between her and Xiao Sha. I also don't know whom to pick between the two.

With Pang Panpan and Zhang Nan I am not even sure what their A-scores are on beam right now. Anyone? I really like Zhang because she is a sentimental favorite and she has more international experience for everyone in the running for these two spots. I also think beam is her best event. And overall, I think China just needs decent A-scores and a solid score to stay ahead of the US.

So what does everyone else think? Who would you put in these spots?

Saturday, June 21st. Men's Trials; 4:30-6:00pm. Women's; 8:00-10:00pm.

Sunday, June 22nd. Women's Trials; 7:00-9:00pm. Uhhh, did I miss another Men's?

And now to the conclusion of the French Nationals! Here are the scores from Event Finals...

Vault- Cheng Fei was first with a 15.275, this includes a DTY and the Cheng. Jiang Yuyuan was 3rd with a 13. (???) Both vaults appeared to be a 5.8 SV. I have no idea what is going on with that. EDIT- She performed two DTY's thus earning a deduction, she did score around a 15.

Bars- Of course the awesome Yang Yilin won this event with a score of 16.825. Jiang Yuyuan was second with a 15.275 (according to the source, this was a 7.2 A-score, a tenth lower than yesterday.)

Beam- Marine Petit won with a 15.350 (6.3) and Sui Lu followed with a the same score (6.9). Marine Debauve, making a comeback was in 3rd with a 15.325 (6.4). Way to go for her. Yang Yilin produced the same score with a 6.5 A-score.

Floor- Jiang Yuyuan won the event with a 15.425 (6.3). Cassy Vericel followed with a 15.000 (6.4) and I hear she is doing some great tumbling, including the piked double arabian. Yang Yilin must have had a fall as she ended up 6th with a 13.000.

So what does this mean for the shape of the Chinese Team? I would say that Sui Lu is putting herself out. She just doesn't seem to be consistent enough. Yang Yilin is not really affected (but I would say to the AAers of the world LOOK OUT!) Assuming everyone is back to full difficulty (notably Cheng and Jiang), then here's what we have for the Team Final:

VT- Cheng, Jiang, Yang, He Kexin...

UB- Kexin, Yang, Jiang

BB-???? Cheng. Who else?

FX- Cheng, Jiang, Yang?

China's hole appears to be balance beam. Assuming Cheng, Jiang, He, Yang are all going, they need two beamers. Isn't this getting ironic? The US team was looking to fill their last two spots for bars and now the Chinese appear to be doing the same thing. The US has a 6.6-6.7, a 6.9-7.0, and 6.8-7.0 for beam. THis may be the spot where the US can gain some ground on China. Who can fill in these beam spots for China? For all of you who comment and have continuously stated that Li Shanshan will be on that team, you may be right. China will need some good scores there. So I think those last two spots will be between Li, Xiao Sha, Pang Panpan, Deng Linlin, and yes oh yes, Zhang Nan. How awesome would it be to have Zhang Nan on the team? That would make my day because she was one of my favorites.

What does everyone else think? I REALLY think beam is the short spot on the Chinese team, and I think the last two spots will be determined by that event. Who do you think will get those spots?

1.  Yang Yilin- 62.700

VT- 15.125

UB- 16.650-7.7

BB- 15.750-6.6

FX- 15.175-6.2

Notes:  Yang is establishing herself as quite the All-Arounder!  She is maintaining good consistency, and she maybe able to be used for team finals on floor!  I am quite impressed with her.  She is an obvious lock to the Chinese team.

2.  Jiang Yuyuan- 60.675

VT- 14.575

UB- 15.800-7.3

BB- 15.025- 6.4

FX- 15.275- 6.3

Notes:  It does not look as if Jiang performed her Amanar.  Only an 8.5 from the B-panel on bars, hmmm.  Is that a fall?  I am sure she will be on the team, but she needs a little more to be in the running for a podium finish for the AA in Beijing.

Cheng Fei

VT- 15.200

BB- 15.550- 6.6

FX- 14.275- 6.2

Notes:  Ahhhh!  What's going on?  I am thinking she only threw a DTY for vault, fine, she does that a lot in the smaller competitions.  But an 8.075 B-score on floor?  I am not really worried, I just not only want her difficulty back up but I want to see her strong in Beijing!

Sui Lu

UB- 15.125- 6.3

BB- 13.725- 6.7

FX- 14.700- 6.4

Notes:  I think Sui Lu is sealing her Olympic fate here.  Beam and floor need to be a lot higher scores.  7.025 B-score on beam sounds like she fell multiple times.  She also went fully out of bounds on floor.  I don;t know if I would take her!  She seems to pose too much of a risk!  Sheesh, take Zhang Nan!  Maybe you will only get a 15.4ish on beam, but at least you won't have a 13!

Sorry to skip over the French Girls, I am so very interested in analyzing the Chinese!  At this point, I would consider taking someone like Zhang or Pang Panpan.  The Chinese need solid scores.  Even if your A-score is so high a fall will score higher than a gymnast with a hit routine of sub-par difficulty, you don't want falls!  Falls can hurt the mindset of the team and add too much pressure.  The Chinese team will have quite enough pressure.

Anyway, more thoughts to come though after the Finals of this competition.  Wow, only a few more days until Olympic Trials begins!  I hope I can get some info at the podium training.  Also, for those of you that don't know,  Shawn Johnson's gym is flooded!  I heard she may have moved over Iowa State to train.  I feel bad for Chow.

Less than two months to Beijing and counting!

One of the things that makes Olympic champions like Carly Patterson and Andreea Raducan great is the way they almost never seemed to falter on that most precarious of events.

Seems like these days more gymnasts have major problems on uneven bars. Great all-around prospects who had difficulties hitting bars in competition or getting a start value that didn't deflate all-around possibilities? The ranks burst with them: Vanessa Atler, Alicia Sacramone, Cheng Fei, Anna Pavlova, Sandra Izbasa, Jana Bieger, Catalina Ponor, Gina Gogean, etc.

So it's almost refreshing to see a gymnast whose worst event is the old classic balance beam, who makes you bite your nails and get so nervous during the routine that suspense movies hardly compare.

Such a gymnast is China's Jiang Yuyuan. The 2008 Chinese Champion has rocketed into the Olympic all-around picture by unveiling a very good Amanar vault. She has class and tumbling on floor, and while she's no He Kexin on uneven bars, she's bound to score well there, too.

No, given what she's shown so far, Jiang's achilles heel could actually be balance beam, an event she didn't compete at the 2007 World Championships.

Jiang Yuyuan, 2008 Chinese Championships Team Finals, Balance Beam:

All that being said, maybe she was just having a bad day. She was much better in the all-around final.

Jiang Yuyuan, 2008 Chinese Championships All-Around, Balance Beam:

1) Ivana Hong
2) Ashley Priess
3) Chellsie Memmel
4) Mattie Larson

Notes:  Priess supposedly has a 7.0+ bars score, which as I have said before, she performs that with no errors through Nationals and Trials she will have a ticket to Beijing.  Memmel scored well on floor from what I understand, and no idea what Hong is up to.  Alicia Sacramone supposedly did real well and scored more than a 16 on beam, which I think just further secures her spot.    Shayla Worley is having back issues and left the training camp early, so perhaps her spot is in question.  And again, whoever gets second in bars for the two main deciding competitions, is going to Beijing, USA cannot afford otherwise.

Meanwhile in China, scores are soaring to new levels.  16 is the new 15 over there.  A little inflated of course, but none the less amazing.  Here are the results of China's Event Finals, courtesy of International Gymnast:

Women's Vault
1. Cheng Fei 15.812 (Double-twisting Yurchenko, 15.50/Cheng 16.125)
2. Deng Shaojie 15.45
3. Deng Linlin 14.90

Uneven Bars
1. He Kexin 17.325 (7.7 A)
2. Yang Yilin 16.725 (7.7 A)
3. Pang Panpan 16.475
4. Jiang Yuyuan 16.40
5. He Ning 16.075

Balance Beam
1. Sui Lu 16.575 (7.0 A)
2. Guo Wei 16.500 (6.9 A)
3. Zhang Nan 16.300 (6.8 A)
4. Cheng Fei 16.175 (6.8 A)
5. Li Shanshan 16.125
6. Cui Jie 16.050
7. Hu Yuhong 15.500
8. Xiao Sha 15.30

Women's Floor Exercise
1t. Sui Lu 16.200 (6.4 A)
1t. Cheng Fei 16.200 (6.5 A)
3. Yang Yilin 15.675 (6.2 A)
4. Cui Jie 15.500
5. He Ning 15.625
6t. Guo Wei 15.500
6t. Jiang Yuyuan 15.500
8. Xiao Sha 15.450

The breakdown:  The way I see it, China has one gap (if you can even call it that) on beam.

Cheng Fei, Jiang Yuyuan, Yang Yilin, and He Kexin are all going to Beijing.  And after Nationals I would include Sui Lu into the lineup for sure.  Winning beam is one thing, but to tie Cheng Fei on one of her signature events is a huge deal.   Vault, bars, and floor are covered.  (and if you notice above there is a typo in the floor scores, I am not sure what is actually right.)  For beam Sui Lu and Cheng Fei are good, but who should be in the 3rd spot?  And who for the last spot of the team?  Well, Guo Wei whoever you are, maybe you will be in.  What I would love is to bring Zhang Nan.  That would be excellent, she did get 3rd!  

Back to the US...

So again, Shawn Johnson, Nastia Liukin, and Alicia Sacramone make up 50% of the team.  And with how well Samantha Peszek did during camp, providing she continues this path throughout June meets, I think she has made her case.  She has the same A-score as Shawn on floor, which I am guessing is a 6.5.  I think Memmel, Worley, Priess, Hong, and Bridget Sloan, who supposedly has a 6.7 on bars now, are fighting for those last two spots.  Considering every other event for Team Finals is covered, 2nd and 3rd to Nastia on bars is who gets the last two golden tickets.

Now lets look at some difficulty score comparisons... (BTW check out some of the blogs I have links to, and I need to put some others in, because there are some wonderfully written and analyzing things out there)

China:

Vault- 6.5,6.5, 5.8.  = 18.8

Bars- 7.7,7.7, and 7.0 we will say, even though it may be a couple tenths higher.  = 22.4

Beam- 7.0,6.9,6.9 (I am just speculating) = 20.8

Floor- 6.5,6.4,6.4 = 19.3

Total 81.3

USA

vault- 6.5,6.3,5.8 = 18.6

bars- 7.7, 7.0,6.7 (thats being generous) = 21.4

beam- 7.0, 6.7,6.6 (though it may be a couple tenths higher) = 20.3

floor- 6.5,6.5,6.2 =19.2

Total 79.5

That's a 1.8 difference.  Now, for some of you that may go crazy at that, I am just speculating and trying to be realistic.  I will recalculate again when Nationals comes up OR if I get some hardcore A-score facts.

But as of right now, if China hits in Team Finals they WILL have the gold.  The difference in uneven bars alone is going to be around one point.  But one thing is for sure, this will be good.  I can barely wait.  It has been a looooong four years.

Deep in the Heart of Texas: Shawn Johnson completes her Amanar with no trouble at Karolyi camp

This again: A New Zealand-based article on how difficult gymnastics is

Bruised and battered: Canadian Olympic team members

Russia rules: The 2008 Men's European Championships

Under the radar: A feature on Bridget Sloan

Samantha Peszek drives a luxury vehicle. Guillermo Alvarez does not.

A third of the people who won gold at the European Championships: File under "Not Going to the Olympics"

Getting up there: International Gymnast Magazine with Russian French gymnast Dmitry Karbanenko

New Olympic favorite: With a spectacular Amanar, Jiang Yuyuan captures the Chinese Championships

We suspected it already, but: Yang Wei is the best gymnast in China

More on Memmel: With optimistic comments from Martha

The women's team, announced at the same time, is Kyoko Oshima, Miki Uemura, Yu Minobe, Koko Tsurumi, Yuko Shintake, Mayu Kuroda.

Japan is the first country I know of to announce its Olympic teams, although it's been speculated that China's women's team will consist of Cheng Fei, Yang Yilin, He Kexin, Jiang Yuyuan and two others. The Japanese men were second to the Chinese by a sizeable margin at the 2007 World Championships. The Japanese women grabbed the 12th and final team berth to Beijing.

(Via International Gymnast Magazine Online)

Cheng Fei

Granted, this is from an internal meet. Makes one think that we're going to be seeing some similiar scores come U.S. Nationals in June.

(via International Gymnast Magazine Online)

Cheng Fei- on a yurchenko double and the Cheng a 15.5 and 16.1.  FX was a 6.3 and she got a 15.750.

Jiang Yuyuan- 16.100 for her SOLID Amanar, and 15.700 for her FX with a 6.3 A-score. 15.850 on UB, and 15.2 on beam.  I think she will be doing well in the AA come Beijing time :)

Li Shanshan- 16.950 for beam!!  That seems a little high, some of these scores do.  I am wondering if her difficulty was back up to a 7.5.  I wouldn't count her out of the mix yet!

Sui Lu- 16.650 on beam with a 7.1 A-score.  A 15.700 on FX.  I LIKE this girl!  She needs to be on the Olympic team, and her barani Korbut combo on beam is rockin.

Yang Yilin did great!  Stuck DTY for a 15.350, 17.050 on bars, 14.450 on beam, 15.200 for FX.  Not bad!  With a hit BB she is also in the AA mix for Beijing.

Xiao Sha got a 16.300 on beam.

He Kexin not only got a 17.300 on bars but a 15.300 for her DTY.

He Ning scored a 16.050 on bars with a 7.0 A-score.

Pang Panpan is out with an ankle injury.

Who I see on the Olympic Team-

Cheng Fei

Jiang Yuyuan

He Kexin

Yang Yilin

Sui Lu

And the last spot I see as a toss up between Xiao Sha and Li Shanshan.  I really like He Ning though.

Pretty Amânar. So that's Barbosa, Johnson, Pavlova (splatted), and Jiang. Who's next please.

And Jiang's floor from the same meet:

Youtube user fanbutterfly has more videos from this event, which will give us a very good idea of China's Olympic A-team.

-Jiang YuyuanJ's Amanar is GREAT!  She took a small step, that was it.  Floor was solid too (fell out of triple spin)

-Cheng Fei's new FX music is not my favorite.  I think she had watered down tumbling.  Did well on beam.

-He Ning fell off beam, so did Deng Linlin

-Zhang Nan did good on beam and floor

-Sui Lu has sold me.  They need her scores, and that little girl looks confident

-He Kexin rocked her UB set.

-Yang Yilin's new bar set is pretty cool.  LOTS of pirouettes.

-Li Shanshan had a solid beam routine.

These are appearing by the minute.  These videos can be viewed here

Competing on the Olympic team

• Cheng Fei
• Jiang Yuyuan
• He Kexin
• Yang Yilin

For the last two spots it is between

• He Ning
• Sui Lu
• Pang Panpan
• Xiao Sha

I would put Xiao Sha and Sui Lu on the team. Xiao Sha is amazing on beam, and Sui Lu brings a very, very decent A-score on floor. China is going to be extremely ahead of the US in start scores. And two potential 17's on bars is huge. Of course, only time will tell!

• Jiang Yuyuan is competing the Amanar. On day 2 she received a 15.700. She placed 2nd on floor. She had some mistakes on uneven bars.
• He Kexin got a 17.00 on uneven bars!!!!
• Cheng Fei got a rumored 9.6 B-score on her Cheng vault. Her beam was very solid but only did a 2.5 twist dismount.
• Deng Linlin won the AA and has a 7.0 start value on beam. I am thinking that she is definitely earning an Olympic spot if she scores consistently here on out.
• Xiao Sha won beam, couple of problems on bars and vault, but placed 2nd or 3rd in the AA. I think this girl is totally going.
• Yang Yilin only did bars due to her recent foot injury at Cottbus, but she did great and placed 2nd to He Kexin.
• Li Shanshan had the highest start value on beam (7.3) but had lots of wobbles. I am thinking if she continues to perform like this she may miss the Olympic team as she is pretty much a beam specialist and China has A-scores out of this world.
• Sui Lu (whoever that is) had start values of 6.4 (!!!) on floor and 7.1 on beam. She supposedly placed top 3 on those events. Consistency could definitely put her on the team as that is a much needed floor score.
• He Ning, Zhang Nan, Pang Panpan, and Zhou Zhouru were all there but lacked difficulty. Pang scored 4th in the AA. These may represent the alternates.

Overall, China will knock USA out of the park on their A-scores for bars and beam. Also, they are now ahead on vault as well. Hopefully, Samantha Pezseck will bring forth the rumored Amanar, which would but USA slightly ahead. China may even have the start value advantage on floor as well. If China hits, I think they will probably beat the USA.

A revised look at who will compete for China:

Cheng Fei, vault, floor, (beam)

Jiang Yuyauan, vault, floor, bars

Xiao Sha, beam

He Kexin, bars, (vault)

Deng Linlin, beam

Sui Lu, beam, floor

I am missing a 3rd spot on bars there. Hmmm, Yang Yilin I would probably take over the spot of Deng Linlin. And actually, I just read that Yang's possible UB score was 16.800....that would definitely buy her a spot on the team.

And they showed that they want that damn Olympic team gold medal.

But I'd rather they didn't. (Sorry girls.)

I'd cheer for the girls individually but not as a team. I respect Cheng Fei and want to see her and Sandra Izbasa battle it out on floor exercise (uh, Shawn who?). And how can you NOT love that little cutie Jiang Yuyuan? I understand that winning would help these girls provide for their families who have sacrificed so much for them; so it would be kind of cruel to tell them YOU SHOULDN'T WIN BECAUSE YOUR COUNTRY CHEATS...these girls have no control over what the grown-ups are telling them to do. 

But ironic, isn't it, that while they're trying to bring "honor" to their country the Chinese are going to cheat to do it. As an ethnic Chinese, I'm not surprised at all.

For even a smidgen of fairness' sake, China shouldn't be winning any sort of gold in the team, when it's likely that only Cheng Fei will undoubtedly be past the legal age limit when Beijing rolls around. Not when the USA and Russia keep their juniors at home and China sends He Kexin.

Not sure how to feel about Jiang Yuyuan's latest offering, shown at the 2008 Doha World Cup in Qatar a few weeks ago, though.

Jiang has beautiful movements and marvelous expression but the routune as a whole seems far less sophisticated than what she used at the 2007 World Championships in Stuttgart last September.

Jiang Yuyuan, 2007 World Championships Event Finals, Floor Exercise:

Is it possible that this is something of a training routine for Jiang? Cheng Fei performed a new routine at the 2007 Chinese Nationals but had switched back to the music and choreography of her 2006 World Championship-winning routine by the time she went to Stuttgart.

Cheng Fei, 2007 Chinese Nationals Prelims, Floor Exercise:

Cheng Fei, 2007 World Championships Prelims, Floor Exercise:

After all, competing the older routine is sometimes wiser. Just ask Chellsie Memmel.

Now I would like to take note of uneven bars A-scores between the Chinese and the USA.

The Chinese are likely to put up Yang Yilin, Jiang Yuyuan, and...He Kexin. Yes, I know.

CHN A-scores:
He 7.5
Jiang 7.1 (as of Doha)
Yang 7.0 (possible upgrades to 7.0+)

Total: 21.6

USA A-scores: (assuming Shayla is on the team)
Liukin 7.7 (projected)
Johnson 6.2 (at American Cup) 6.3 (in Italy)
Worley 6.7 (at American Cup)

Total: 20.7

Methinks we are kind of outmatched...

Kupets could have done a routine in the high 6's (sob sob) and I don't know what Memmel will bring to the table. If Chellsie can get back to delivering a huge uneven bars routine, Shayla's chances of making it to Beijing would get a lot smaller. Shawn will probably want to upgrade, as well.

BEAM:
Yay for Elyse Hopfner-Hibbs (CAN)! She grabbed the silver behind Jiang Yuyuan, which is by all means a respectable feat. It could very well be her and Kristina Vaculik in Beijing (from my meager knowledge of Canadian gymnastics).
And I have this soft spot for Lyudmila Yezhova Grebenkova (RUS), mostly because Yelena Produnova is her coach. Ha ha.

BARS:
He Kexin won. Yawn.
The other two medalists (Jiang and Hopfner-Hibbs) would not have medalled in Olympic or World competition with their scores (both less than 16). Jiang actually messed up her bars (she was supposed to have a 7.0+ difficulty level) hence her sub-16.0 score.

FLOOR
Jiang Yuyuan won, though I've heard that she scrapped her floor music from Stuttgart. I am very, very sad. I loved that music.

China is not most countries.

Here are Deng Linlin and Guo Weiyang, two from the People's Republic whose success at the just concluded Doha World Cup may contribute to their own Olympic surge. Guo won gold on high bar in Doha. Deng won gold on beam and silver on floor.

She didn't do too shabbily on vault, either, winning a bronze behind Germany's Oksana Chusovitina and Russian Anna Pavlova.

Deng Linlin, 2008 Doha World Cup Event Finals, Vault:

Guo Weiyang, 2007 Chinese Nationals Event Finals, High Bar:

Matters aren't much clearer when it comes to the prospective Russian women's team, either. Ksenia Semyonova is the reigning world champion on the uneven bars, but Lyudmila Yezhova Grebenkova keeps coming up with big results at smaller meets. Ksenia Afanasyeva had a great competition at last week's Russian Cup.  

Add veteran Pavlova to the mix, as well as the stalwart Yelena Zamolodchikova, Svetlana Klyukina, Yekaterina Kramarenko, Polina Miller, Kristina Pravdina, Anna Grudko, Irina Isayeva, Daria Elizarova and Yulia Lozhechko. There's no dearth of talent in Russia.

Who goes? Who stays? Who knows?

Good grief.

Bridget and Chellsie finished second and third behind Cheng on floor exercise. I'm slightly consoled that Chellsie is going to come home with a medal.

Dariya Zgoba (UKR) won the uneven bars finals, followed by Jiang Yuyuan and Dasha Joura.

Zgoba's leotard is butt-ugly. Jiang is just what you'd expect from the winner of the 2007 Longines Award for Cuteness (bwahaha). And it's great to see Dasha on the podium again! She deserves to be up there more.

Am still waiting for balance beam final results.

But the real star of the show so far (for me) is Bridget. She's been making good in Beijing, and I'm very proud of her.

While poor Bridget's dancing is nonexistent (as usual--she seems to be IGNORING her music, which is a shame because I like it), Bridget is solid and spot on, and also moves very gracefully across the floor, even if she doesn't dance.

And Bridget looks pretty snazzy in that blue leotard. Yes.