Roberto De La Cruz. He runs a 6.9 60 yard dash (slightly above average), but he's probably not going to get faster as he matures because he will get bigger and stronger. His hands and feet work really well at 3b and he has plenty of range to play that position. He can handle short now but his range will be limited there and he doesn't have the body type to play there. He has a strong lower half and generates bat speed and power by using his middle. I gave his arm an average grade for 3b as he made all the plays. I was impressed by how he started the 5-4-3 double plays... quick release and accurate throws. He has a short stroke to the ball and follows through (short to, long through). I saw him drive three 88-92 mph fastballs - one to left, one up the middle, and one to right. He also sat on a 82 mph slider and punched it to right for a single. While some have compared him to Villalona (who will play in the futures game) I don't think they are the same guy. Villalona (whom we scouted extensively) had more developed power at this stage but we felt was less likely to stick at third and more likely to be a first baseman. (Erik: That's Angel Villalona of the Giants who he's referring to, as I'm sure most of you are aware.)

Santos Franco. There are quite a few similarities between Franco and (Michel) Inoa... both of whom we saw many times over the course of the past few years. Both are similar in stature and body type. Inoa throws harder right now and is more polished (truly a special talent). Franco has a fastball in the 87 to 92 range during workouts and 2 inning stints, so he will likely start his career pitching at 87 to 88. However, he is only 16 and has a loose, projectable arm. He should have a plus (92-93) possibly a plus plus (94+) fastball as he matures. He throws both a breaking ball and a change up, and has decent control (he's around the zone with an occasional miss). We really like his work ethic and attitude and he will be very coachable. With some tweaking, his mechanics could be exceptional and he could be a fast mover in our system.

Cesar Valera. This young shortstop was in the same program as the most high profile position player in Latin America, Yorman Rodriguez. We saw Yorman over a dozen times over the past 24 months (I personally have seen him 5 times - there is a lot to like) and we found ourselves talking about this shortstop every time we visited their program or had them to our academy. He has a very sound approach at the plate and generates above average bat speed. He is about an average runner right now, and he could get better as he matures, but I typically don't like to project increases in speed because I don't see it that often. He can pick it at short and will stay there. He has gap power and will develop over the fence power. Enrique Brito advocated strongly for this player and I have always trusted his ability to judge talent - he has signed or recommended over a dozen big league players from Venezuela.

Dennis Montero. The main thing that stuck out for me about this kid is his ability to throw strikes. We don't see that too often in a 16 year old. His fastball is already average, and he has a swing and miss change up along with a breaking ball he can get over for strikes. We really like his pitching mechanics and believe he will get better quickly.

Grabiel Hernandez. For us, the top fielding shortstop in this year's crop. Not a big guy, so he can get lost in the crowd, until you see him pick the ball over and over again and he is truly impressive. He has gold glove potential if his bat comes along. He is a switch hitter and should remain that way as he makes contact consistently. He's not a power guy, but if he's able to hit enough singles and doubles, he could be a special two way player.

Jose Weffer. A very young (just turned 16) left handed pitcher with a bright future. His fastball is below average now (as it is for many young future stars) but he has deception and command so that his 84 plays like 89. He might have a plus change up and an average to plus curveball. Exciting project who might take a few years to develop but should be good.

Thanks to Mr. Luhnow for sharing this info with us.

I don't know about you, but I'm thrilled to see the Cardinals really open up the purse strings and sign what sounds like some very promising talent. According to the P-D, De La Cruz (or Pina) was signed for a bonus exceeding a million dollars, and both Franco and Valera were signed for over $500 K each. I am particularly excited about Pina (er...De La Cruz...I'm used to calling him Pina, sorry.) I actually was able to talk to a baseball insider in the DR, and he essentially said De La Cruz wasn't a super high ceiling guy, but is about as sure of a thing to hit 20 homers in the big leagues as you can find there. (Which sounds like a pretty high ceiling to me). This person also noted that Franco was more of a high reward/high risk guy who's all arms and legs right now. They felt uncertain if his coordination comes around, but at worst they felt he'd be a back-end bullpen guy because of his fastball.

With draft day coming up, I imagine it must be a busy time for you. How are you and your crew preparing for the big day?

This is a very busy time of year. Just to give you a feel for it, I’ll tell you where I’ve been since mid-April. I saw us play the Brewers at home on the 15th of April. From there I went to Georgia, Orlando, three locations in Arizona, back to Georgia, to Jupiter, and Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Phoenix, North Carolina, Indiana, Kentucky, then back to St Louis. I was home for all three Cards-Cubs games, and then off to Venezuela, Florida (where I am now), and Saturday I head to the Dominican Republic. All of our scouts are equally busy right now evaluating players, talking to them about the upcoming draft, and writing reports. I’ve been to Memphis and Palm Beach and Extended Spring Training, and plan to visit Quad Cities and Springfield soon. We have five draft workouts planned around the county the last weeks of May plus regional draft meetings with all the local scouts.

This draft seems to be full of power hitting 1st baseman. With El Hombre well entrenched at first for a good number of years to come, would you still consider taking a big bat like a Yonder Alonso, Eric Hosmer or Justin Smoak with hopes of moving them a spot or two left of the defensive spectrum like the Brewers have done with Matt LaPorta?

There are some very good hitting first baseman in this draft that will go early. We have evaluated all of them thoroughly and one of the key questions we ask ourselves is whether or not they could play another position. That will factor into our decision about who to take and where we would take them, how much we would pay for them, etc. This is not a new problem though, because often the best hitters are at the corner positions. There just seem to be a few more of them this year, and that is a good thing because there are some good choices among the bats.

I wanted to ask you about the “classic mechanics” that Brent Strom is preaching to the pitchers currently in the minors and how it could pertain to the draft. Do the Cardinals intentionally look to draft pitchers who already have “classic mechanics”? Are you willing to take chances on a pitcher that has a few hitches in hopes that Brent and the other coaches can straighten them out?

Our pitching philosophy in both scouting and player development has been evolving every year, with input and influence from all of our pitching coaches, including Dave and Marty in St. Louis. We definitely look for pitchers in the draft that we think will have major league tools and hold up physically. That is not an easy task and we spend hundreds of hours trying to get any edge we can in this area. We take video of every pitcher that we would consider giving money to sign and analyze them, as well as scout them extensively. It’s not an exact science, but we do feel like we are making progress. We have found that the pitchers who conform most closely to our ideal model are less likely to get hurt. That evidence is still somewhat anecdotal yet encouraging nonetheless.

With last year’s slotting system debacle, from what I understand, more teams are now more willing to go over suggested bonus if needed in order to take the best player available on the board this time around. Will the Cardinals to be one of those teams willing to go over slot, if necessary?

We will evaluate every player on a case-by-case basis. A key question we ask ourselves about every prospect is how much is this player worth, to us, in dollars? If a player is available where we pick and the value we have placed on them is consistent with what they are seeking, then there could be a match. If that number is higher than the recommended amount, then we would discuss it with the commissioner’s office and then make a decision based on what’s in the best interest of the Cardinal organization. We’ve done this several times in the past…in fact, almost every year. We’ve done it at the top of the draft before, with Ankiel, and we’ve done it later in the draft several times, like with Zawacki, Pham, and Garceau.

Pete Kozma wasn’t considered to be a "sexy" pick at the time he was drafted. A lot of different media outlets said that while he had solid tools across the board, other then power, he possessed no real standout tool. Yet so far Pete has played extremely well. Are you surprised at how well he’s performed?

If we wanted a “sexy” pick, we would read Baseball America, read Keith Law’s articles, and pick based on their opinions. But we don’t, and neither do any other clubs, because while the journalists are doing a good job of expressing their opinions based on the information they have, we have to live and die with our selections and the future of the organization is impacted by these picks. If the journalist is wrong, he just admits it (maybe) and keeps writing about the next guy or the next draft. They will still sell papers or get eyeballs. If we are wrong, we’ve missed a huge opportunity to make our organization better, and nobody wants to do that.

Pete’s performance is not a surprise to me or to our scouts. I’m happy he is doing well and I sure hope and expect he will keep it up. I know he will have his rough patches as he goes through our system, everybody except Albert does. By the way, a player with average tools across the board who plays a premium position is incredibly valuable! When we as scouts say “average”, we mean average at the major league level. Theoretically, he would be in the top 15 shortstops at the major league level if that were true. Those players get paid well because they are so valuable.

While we’re talking about the 2007 draft, the first three pitchers you drafted are all performing rather well. Tell us a little bit about your impressions thus far of Mortensen, Todd and Kopp, and what are your expectations for them going forward?

While it’s still early, a month into the minor league season is a good time to get a first read on performance. Todd has done exceptionally well and earned a promotion to AA. Kopp has competed at Palm Beach and could get a chance to join Todd before the year is out. Mortensen has had ups and downs in Springfield, which is really no surprise. Pitching depth has been a goal for our organization, and having these three will help us get there. My expectation is that they stay healthy, keep learning how to pitch and turn up the heat with better and better competition as they have success. We expect every one of them to struggle at some point and how they get through that and learn from it will also influence how fast they move.

I see the piggyback/tandem starting is back, not only at Quad Cities but also with Palm Beach. What do you feel the benefits are to the 8-man rotation? How long do you intend to continue with it?

There are two primary reasons why we use the tandem structure at A ball. The first is to spread the innings out among our top pitchers. In both A ball levels, we have more than five guys who we feel need to have innings to develop. When you use a five-man rotation, you can be assured that those five guys will get the needed innings, but what tends to happen is the bullpen innings get allocated to the older, more reliable guys who might not be the top prospects. Managers want to win, of course, so they tend to rely on guys who can win at that level. That is not always consistent with who the organization feels needs to have innings in order to get better.

The second reason is to closely monitor their pitch counts and inning load to prevent injury. Knock on wood, but since we started the tandem approach last year, we have had almost no arm injuries among our starters. This, as we all know, is a key to maintaining depth in our system.

Adam Ottavino has struggled so far adjusting to AA. What's the area he most needs to improve in? Is there a specific pitch or skill you want him to work on?

From my perspective, in our system, the jump from Palm Beach to Springfield for pitchers is the most challenging move they will make. The FSL is considered a pitcher’s league due to the big ballparks. The Texas League is considered a hitter’s league. Adam has struggled early this year and is currently working his way back from a minor injury. I expect he will be fully recovered and be back in the rotation soon. He has big league stuff, and now that he is facing better hitters, he needs to trust his stuff and figure out when and how to use each one of his pitches. That is a process that takes longer for some, but I feel Adam will figure it out at AA this year. Keeping the walks down and using the change up more frequently are two keys to Adam having success at that level.

Tyler Henley is really tearing it up at Palm Beach. The club went over slot to sign him, and so far the investment looks to be paying off. What can you tell us about him? I’ve heard some Lenny Dykstra comparisons. Is that an accurate comp?

Tyler was having a great start but unfortunately he will be out for a while now. I do like the Lenny Dykstra comparison… gritty, short and stocky, hard nosed player who gets his uniform dirty and can play anywhere in the outfield. Let’s all hope he has a career like Lenny’s!

Nick Additon, one of the team’s final draft and follows, has thrown 86.1 innings of pro ball, with 104 K’s to just 21 walks. What does he throw? How is he achieving those results?

Additon does get strikeouts and he limits his walks. He is a young left-handed pitcher who is just starting to come into his own. He has had a few bad outings at Quad Cities this year but some outstanding performances as well. His fastball is in the mid to high eighties and he has a plus curveball at times and a changeup that works well and which he throws for strikes.

I was at the official site the other day and happened to notice the name and title: Rob Fidler, Coordinator-Asian Development. I wasn’t aware the Cardinals had a presence in Asia. Tell us a little bit about what the club is currently doing out East, and what they hope to accomplish there? (Feel free to tell me the club has plans to sign Yu Darvish if you want to!)

There are two key people who are helping us out with our Japan and Asia strategy. Rob Fidler worked in our video room for the past two years and is now full time in the front office helping us craft and execute our Asia strategy. Matt Slater is a pro scout who worked extensively in Asia for the Dodgers in his career. He has great relationships with several pro clubs in Japan. We have two primary objectives – to be able to make smart decisions regarding the professional players coming out of Japan, and to find good amateur players in the region (China, Korea, Taiwan). We have a ways to go, but we have dedicated resources now helping us get there.

While we’re discussing overseas scouting, Kevin Moscatel and Ryde Rodriguez were two of the big international signings last year. How are both of those players progressing? When can we expect to see them in the states? What other Latin American players are there that we should keep an eye on?

There are many that merit mention. Jose Martinez at AA has been discussed in various forums, but he is the guy leading the pack. Donovan Solano at Palm Beach is an exciting young shortstop that is having a breakout year with the bat. Both Elvis Hernandez (Mosquito 1) and Francisco Samuel (Mosquito 2) are interesting right handed pitchers at Palm Beach. At Quad Cities, we have Bolivar (SS), Garcia (SS/2B), Dela Cruz (C), and Morales (1B/3B/OF) as well as Eduardo Sanchez (RHP). At EST the list is too long for me to mention here, and we also have a bunch of players at the DSL and VSL. It might be worth a separate discussion for each of those groups at some point.

Ryde Rodriguez and Kevin Moscatel are both getting playing time at EST and both project to make a rookie level club here in the US. The talk of EST has been Frederick Parejo, an athletic Venezuelan CF with big league upside both ways.

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DL: How, and to what extent, do you utilize statistical analysis within scouting and development? And is the preference you've shown to drafting college players directly related to that philosophy?

JL: We look at past performance as an indicator of future performance across all categories of players. All clubs do this. How we each do it differs... As for college players, I'd be interested to know why you think we have a preference for drafting college players? In both 2005 and 2007, our first pick in the draft was a high school player. In 2005 we selected 17 high school players, including Rasmus, Anderson, Herron, and Garcia. We took several in 2006 including Pham, Edwards and Additon. In 2007 we took Zawacki, Hooker, Blazek, Hage and others. Far more college players are taken in the draft overall for many reasons that go beyond individual club preference. We continue to look for the best players, independent of source.

Matt Eddy at Baseball America recently looked at sources of talent for their top 30s, and only the A's have more college players in their top 30 then the Cardinals with 17. 7 of the Top 30 were high schoolers, which is more then the Padres, Diamondbacks, Astros, Mets, Yankees, Pirates, Blue Jays, Rangers, Giants, Mariners, A's and Cubs. In other words, that puts them in the middle of the pack. While I know the Cardinals are willing to look at players regardless of where they come from, the tendency towards college players seems pretty strong to me. The question has validity.

Luhnow isn't totally forthcoming on some issues, understandably on some, but a good job by Laurila and some interesting answers from Mr. Luhnow.

How do you see the Cardinal farm system from where it was 5 years ago and where do you feel it is now?

There's no question it's better. Their farm system five years ago was extremely thin, and their best prospects were all low-probability pitchers with injury histories or delivery problems. I don't think their system is great right now - probably just south of the median - but it's definitely better.

What's your take on Jeff Luhnow, in terms of his strengths and weaknesses?

I've found his drafts to generally be conservative, surprisingly so for an organization that has historically spent good money in the draft. When he's gone above slot, it hasn't worked out so far (Greene, Hamilton), in part because they didn't go for the high-ceiling types that merit above-slot bonuses. I also think the Cardinals are too rigid in their faith in the predictive power of college statistics; I worked with college stats while I was with the Jays even before I went out to see players, and in my opinion, their value is very limited. On the plus side, the Cardinals' system is going to produce more big-league value than it has in a while. There are maybe a dozen guys in their system who will at least sit on a big-league bench or pitch in middle relief. They just lack star-level prospects after the big guy. They've also done well when they went away from the conservative/college-centric approach and taken high-upside high school players, notably Rasmus, but even Anderson (whose defense I don't like) is going to play in the big leagues and has a chance to be pretty good.

Anthony Reyes has gone from top prospect in the Cardinal's system to a pitcher having a difficult transition to an unwanted young pitcher -- if you were scouting him for another MLB team, what level of interest would you have and do you think he can still have a respectable career?

I think you always have to give some benefit of the doubt to a young pitcher who struggles under Tony La Russa; his track record there is miserable. That said, we're talking about a guy who has average stuff and no out pitch, and whose command is significantly worse in the majors than it was in the minors, AND who had big-time injury trouble in college. He's a guy for whom you don't want to give anything up; you hope you can snag him on waivers when he's out of options, or that the Cards just decide to turn the page on him and give him away for 30-40 cents on the dollar.

Is there a hitter, past or present who you'd compare Colby Rasmus to?

I don't do the comparison game - most hitters strike me as unique. How often is a Stanford RHP compared to Mike Mussina? Why do we typically only hear white players compared to white players, and black to black? Anyway, Rasmus looks to me like a guy who'll draw walks, hit for plus power and average, and provide above-average defense in center. That's nothing you couldn't glean from his '07 stat line. He's got good wrists, takes a short path to the ball, and centers everything. If he was in the Yankees' system, we'd all be nauseated from hearing about him all the time.

What are the chances rule 5 draftee Brian Barton sticks on the roster this spring, and what do you feel is his upside?

Fourth outfielder. I think he'll stick - they need someone just like him.

Who in the Cardinal system do you like?

Aside from Rasmus, I'd say Mitch Boggs. I'm surprised he doesn't miss more bats with that fastball/curveball combo, but he throws strikes and should at least end up a power reliever if he can't start. I like Tyler Herron as a guy with good command & feel who has some projection on his fastball, which is fringe-average right now.

Do you still think Adam Ottavino's upside is a MLB reliever?

Yep. Delivery, stuff, command all point to the pen. I did not understand that pick at all; I don't think any other club was on him that high.

You didn't seem all that enthused by the selection of Pete Kozma. Care to elaborate?

I have no problem with taking a high school player in the first round, obviously, but my philosophy is that if you're willing to take on the development risk associated with a high school player, take a player whose upside will provide you with a suitable return. Kozma is a nice player with a soft swing that's not going to generate power; he throws the bat at the ball and extends his arms way too early, and gets his weight out front early as well. I know the beta on an 18-year-old is really high, but if you offered me an over/under of .400 on his MLB career slugging percentage and forced me to choose, I'd take the under. That said, he plays a good shortstop and people love his makeup, so he has a low chance of providing a zero return.

Does P.J. Walters even have a shot at cracking a big league rotation with his low velocity?

Not in my book. I suppose a club like the Padres, in a huge park, could take a flier on him, but I think he's an org guy.

Last baseball question...Just a take a crazy guess...who do you see the Cardinals taking first in the 2008 draft?

The Cards pick #13, and on my preseason prospect rankings, #13 was Christian Friedrich, [ed. note, also my prediction. Great minds...] a left-handed pitcher from the University of Eastern Kentucky. He's got plus velocity and a plus curveball, one of the best in the draft, but his control is shaky and his delivery has some effort to it. I do like him quite a bit, and I think the curveball is good enough to mitigate the other risks.

What book are you reading right now and what's in your queue?

Currently reading Gabriel Garcia Marquez' "Love in the Time of Cholera." I received a whole mess of books for Christmas, so I'm not sure what's next - Gregory Maguire's "Wicked," Arthur Koestler's "Darkness at Noon," Edith Wharton's "The Age of Innocence," Moore/Gibbons' "Watchmen" are all in the queue.

You can catch Keith at his blog at ESPN.com for his thoughts on baseball and you can get his thoughts on books and food (and sometimes baseball there, too) at his own personal blog The Dish.

P-D columnist Bernie Miklasz sees this as a shift of power within the front office, new school verses old school, stats verses scouts, and could even have implications with Tony LaRussa and his future in St. Louis. Miklasz even speculates that Luhnow is the heir to the GM position, which would not suprise me. (Though I gotta say, I think Jocketty is more "Moneyball" then a lot of people think).

I know Bill DeWitt has received a lot of flack for allegedly being a greedy mizer of sorts, but give him credit for listening to a guy like Luhnow, who sees the importance of stats and scouting, using new methods to mine for talent, and has helped reshift the team's focus to other nations. Under Luhnow's supervision the farm system has been bolstered through well-thought out drafts and is no longer thought of as a running joke. That certainly helps any team build a winner, especially one that's looking to do it on a sensible budget.  

The farm system sure got a ways to go, but it is a lot better then where it was, and I'm looking forward to seeing where Luhnow takes it.