Ik schreef reeds in een vorig bericht dat de AEX zich op een cruciaal level bevindt en eindigde met de opmerking dat de BEL20 index reeds begonnen was aan zijn neerwaartse uitbraak. Op onderstaande grafiek wordt duidelijk met welke mega-daling we hier te maken hebben. Sinds begin juni 2008 daalde de koers week na week erg stevig , reeds meer dan 700 indexpunten in totaal!

Ik haalde het reeds aan, momenteel is het je reinste zelfmoord om - louter op basis van de nu toch wel heftige koersdaling - zomaar Long te gaan, ervan uitgaande dat de daling nu toch lang genoeg heeft geduurd. Kopers hebben momenteel niks te zoeken op de beurs, in het beste geval valt er met Long posities enkel intraday wat geld te rapen.

Wat betreft de BEL20 wordt het erop of eronder volgende week. De 3000 komt nu toch wel akelig dichtbij en we vermoeden dat de shorters toch wel een vette kluif zullen hebben aan dit stevige ronde getal. De huidige low bevindt zich op het 3016 level maar we vermoeden dat we komende week nog een stukje lager gaan. Slechts wanneer de koers op dagbasis onder dit ronde getal afsluit bestaat de kans dat de actuele kopers de handdoek in de ring gooien en aldus meer verkoop wordt getriggerd. Net zoals bij de AEX op het 400 level bestaat de kans op hevige intraday schommelingen (te wijten aan de daytraders die momenteel met korte posities vooral het sentiment van de beurs bespelen). De één zijn brood.....

Kristoff

]]> http://economischfinancieelnieuws.wordpress.com/?p=44 Wed, 02 Jul 2008 19:16:06 +0000 1kristoff1 http://economischfinancieelnieuws.wordpress.com/?p=44 De AEX-index klokte vandaag af op 408,40, ongeveer anderhalve procent lager dan de slotkoers gisteren. Daarmee doet deze het een stuk slechter dan zijn Europese broertjes. De CAC40 is de enige die ook een verlies laat opteken van (iets) meer dan 1 procent.

De daling van vandaag is echter niet de voornaamste reden waarom ik even stilsta bij de AEX. Bij het raadplegen van de langetermijngrafiek wordt pas duidelijk in wat voor gevaarlijk vaarwater de index zich bevindt.

Op de grafiek hieronder die teruggaat tot 1999 vertegenwoordigt elke candlestick een tijdsperiode van één week. De volle rode en groene lijnen duiden een duidelijke stijgende tradingrange aan waartussen de AEX tussen maart 2003 en januari 2008 fluctueerde.

Januari 2008 was een eerste kantelpunt voor de index, na 5 jaar werd er definitief afscheid genomen van de bestaande stijgende range. De tweede week van januari was immers de eerste weekcandle waarvan het slot lager was dan de volle opgaande groene lijn (+/- 480). In de twee weken die volgden was het momentum sterk, zééér sterk zelfs. Eind januari (amper twee weken nadien dus) liet de AEX een low optekenen van rond de 400 (rond getal)! Dit was blijkbaar laag genoeg om héél wat nieuwe kopers in de markt te lokken want er werd een kanjer van een doji candle gevormd waarbij de koers die week uiteindelijk afsloot rond het 438 level.

De low van eind januari 2008 was vanaf dan het nieuwe aanknopingspunt om de opgaande groene stippellijn te tekenen. vanaf dan tot midden mei zagen we een verdienstelijke poging van de AEX om de beren het vuur aan de schenen te leggen. Het 500 level (rara... opnieuw een rond getal) bleek echter een maat te veel en sindsdien is de index naar beneden 'gekelderd'. Dergelijke sterke woordkeuze lijkt mij niet misplaatst als we zien dat sinds begin juni elke weekcandle lang en rood gekleurd is...

Concreet zien we dus nu een lagere top rond het 500 level (dalende rode stippellijn) maar wat mij persoonlijk nog méér opvalt is dat de koers zich momenteel onder de groene opgaande stippellijn situeert en de index daarmee een eerste indicatie geeft dat een nieuwe versnelde beweging zuidwaarts mogelijk is. Gelukkig heb ik geleerd "het vel van de beer nooit te verkopen vooraleer hij geschoten is..." De candle van deze week heeft welgeteld nog twee dagen om alsnog boven de groene stippellijn af te sluiten en zelfs indien dat niet zou lukken ligt de 400 er nog die toch ook voor enig weerwerk zou moeten zorgen.

Met morgen het rentebesluit van de ECB voor de boeg zou het nog wel eens zéér spannend kunnen worden voor het weekend...

En mocht u denken dat de AEX er slecht voorstaat moet u maar even van de overige Europese indices een weekgrafiekje op uw scherm toveren. De Belgische BEL20 bijvoorbeeld, waar een soortgelijke break down al twee weken een feit is...

kristoff

...

NESTA EDIÇÃO:

FACTÓIDE, de André de Leones.
DE LINHAS E OMOPLATAS (IV), de Dheyne de Souza.
A MORTE DO DR. MAMEDE - PARTE FINAL, de Henrique Rodrigues.
A CENA DO CRIME, de Maurício Melo Júnior.
COMO MANTER-SE CRÉDULO DIANTE DE TAMANHA FALTA DE SENTIDO?, de Nereu Afonso da Silva.

...

[Imagem: Mulher grávida e a morte (1911), de Egon Schiele.]

.

Después de pensarlo un tiempo he decidido dedicar el primer gráfico a nuestro querido Ibex 35, que siempre es mejor conocer primero lo de casa que lo de fuera. Aunque ya le dedicaré tiempo a los índices extranjeros, me parece que lo más acertado es comenzar analizando la salud de la Bolsa española, primero lo más cercano y luego lo más lejano.

Después de un precioso mercado alcista que llevó al Ibex desde los 5000 hasta los 16000 puntos, llegó el momento de frenar la subida. Pero lo que parecía una parada para buscar cotas mayores se ha convertido en un mercado bajista en el que muchas acciones a nivel individual están cayendo de una forma alarmante. En lo que parece un primer impulso bajista el Ibex se paró un poquito por debajo de 12000 desde el inicio en 16000, el rebote se paró en 14300 aproximademente y desde entonces ha caído con fuerza. Aún no ha iniciado el segundo impulso, que se activaría al perder los 11937 y que le llevaría hasta 10265 (incluso más abajo si se produce la típica dilatación, por lo que no sería raro que se acercara todavía más a los 10000), por lo que no se puede confirmar aún que vayamos a ver nuevos mínimos anuales, pero tiene todo el aspecto de que los veremos.

Mientras el PIX (línea verde del gráfico inferior) se mantenga por debajo de cero, seguiré pensando que el mercado bajista sigue vigente, aunque asistamos a movimientos alcistas (rebotes en este caso) de cierta importancia.

Sé que se trata de una visión muy simple del mercado, pero creo que queda bastante clara mi idea acerca de lo que se avecina. Y es que a veces lo más sencillo es lo más práctico, y esa es la esencia de este blog.

Pinchad el gráfico para verlo mejor.

...

NESTA EDIÇÃO:

SURVIVERS, de Daniela dos Santos.
NOTURNO, IMPONDERÁVEL E PROVAÇÃO, de Leandro Resende.
A DIARISTA DO MAGO, de Lúcia Bettencourt.

...

[Imagem: Estudo de borboleta (guache sobre papel canson), de Dheyne de Souza.]
.

Le Baltic Dry Index (BDI) est un indice des prix pour le transport maritime en vrac de matières sèches.

Créé en 1998, cet indice est géré par la société britannique Baltic Exchange à Londres. Il est établi sur une moyenne des prix pratiqués sur 24 routes mondiales de transport en vrac de matières sèches tels que les minerais, le charbon, les métaux, les céréales, etc.

L'indice est détaillé en plusieurs indices en fonction de la capacité des navires : indices Baltic Supramax, Panamax et Capesize. Ces indices sont basés sur les évaluations faites par plusieurs courtiers maritimes internationaux.

Cet indice a connu une volatilité très importante ces dernières années, passant de 1500 points en 2004 à plus de 11000 points début 2008. En effet le coût du fret maritime a subit des grandes variations liées à la demande de transport en Chine, la demande globale pour les matières premières, ainsi qu'une offre qui n'a pas su s'adapter à la demande. Le secteur du Transport Maritime est en règle général cyclique. Les taux de Frêt varient aussi beacoup en fonction des capacités de porte-conteneurs disponibles. Les cycles sont régulièrs, le temps pour les armateurs de commander et de mettre en service de nouveaux bateaux. Or ces dernières années les armateurs ont sous-évalué la croissance de la demande mondiale.

L'Indice de la Baltique est de plus en plus reconnu comme un bon indicateur de croissance/récession future. Pour preuve, il est maintenant disponible auprès des informations financières majeures des services de données et d'informations que proposent Thomson Financial, Reuters et Bloomberg.

Ressources (en anglais):
http://www.dryships.com/index.cfm?get=report
http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm
http://www.drybulkindex.com/

Articles
The best economic indicator you've never heard of
Baltic Dry Freight Index Indicates Impending Recession
Drybulk index posts largest-ever 1 day drop

Graph BALTIC DRY INDEX
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY:IND
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$BDI
http://www.findata.co.nz/Markets/Quote.aspx?e=INDEX&s=BDI

...............

NESTA EDIÇÃO (clique nos títulos para ler):

FLETCHER, de Daniela Mendes.

O PERSONAGEM REAL, de Dheyne de Souza.

O CU DO MUNDO - PARTE 6, de Marco Aurélio Cremasco.

.

[Imagem: Garota com gato (1937), Balthus. ]

...............

NESTA EDIÇÃO (clique nos títulos para ler)

.

DOS COLABORADORES:

A MORTE DO DR. MAMEDE - PARTE II, de Henrique Rodrigues.

DESCARNAVAL, de Maurício Melo Júnior.

MEL, de Nereu Afonso da Silva.

.

DA CONVIDADA:

"IT KEPT GOING", de Adriana Lisboa.

.

[Imagem: Bella (1981), Lucien Freud. ]

1. It struck me that Bear wasn't able to see the forst through the trees when it came to it's strategy, specifically demonstrated with the "Chaos" trade. When one thinks about how these sorts of things can play out, especially in unprecedented times, how the decision to unwind these trades came about makes perfect sense. Someone puts on a unique trade and management asks them to justify it. Well, there's a slide with four or five bullet points explaining why this trade should work (mostly qualitative/anecdotal). Also, there there's a chart presented that shows a pretty bad history for the trade if it had been put on in the past. Indeed we can examine Mr. Schwartz's history with the trade to see this:

For some of the assets, the market was frozen, Mr. Schwartz reasoned, so selling was out of the question. On others, he had mixed feelings. He didn't want to unload tens of billions of dollars worth of valuable mortgages and related bonds at distressed prices, creating steeper losses.

...

The [hedge, called "the Chaos trade"] was a deeply pessimistic bet -- essentially a method for making money if the mortgage and financial markets cratered. The traders bet that the ABX, a family of indexes made up of securities backed by subprime mortgages, would fall. They made similar moves on indexes tracking securities backed by commercial mortgages. Finally, they placed a series of bets that the stocks of major financial companies with exposure to mortgages ... would decrease in value as well.

...

Faced with the fierce divide among his top executives, Mr. Schwartz, who was generally supportive of the chaos trade, decided to abandon it. He wanted specific pessimistic plays that would offset specific optimistic bets, rather than the broader hedges Mr. Marano had employed. Frustrated, Mr. Marano ordered the trades undone.

(emphasis mine).

Now, everything until the last part follows naturally. The last part (matching your hedges to your positions one-to-one) is fine, until you realize that it's impossible to do this in a liquidity-challenged market. Also, with a massive re-pricing of risk, due to liquidity constraints, one should take a broader view. The CDO market drove demand in securitized products generally and mortgages specifically. Inventories in loans and bonds were sitting on firm's balance sheets while credit concerns were coming to fruition. So, firms can't sell risky products, which are losing value from a fundamental re-pricing, and, also, the lack of buying (overall liquidity) is causing a further, more broad technical re-pricing. That is the subtle point from above--why bet on "financial markets cratering" if you own mortgages and call that a hedge? Well, given the widespread ownership of these products, their credit impairment caused widespread credit concerns. With credit worthiness in doubt, liquidity became scarce. Scarce liquidity means less available money to buy these products, and leads to a technical problem with markets and drives prices lower (lower demand ... easy, right?). Clearly this requires a deeper understanding of how interconnected markets are and exactly how they work together--potentially a leap of faith or a layer of complexity a firm wasn't willing to bet on.

There was, however, evidence markets were behaving this way. Spread product was moving in lock step (directionally). LCDX (index of loans, generally made to high yield companies) was moving wider, corporate bonds had a secular widening, and mortgage product was impossible to trade, commanding a larger and larger liquidity premium... Also, LIBOR was rising and banks were finding it harder and harder to borrow. But, instead of using relatively liquid indices and stocks to bet on these "second order" effects, Mr. Schwartz started asking for specific bets that offset highly illiquid positions. Good luck. To ask for relevant hedges is logical, follows from first principles, seems safer, and wasn't executable--easy for risk managers and executives to demand and impossible to do, leaving the problems unsolved. Keep in mind, too, that the stock market hedges could easily be unwound in the event they failed to be correlated to the loans they were hedging. Would the "specific" hedges that would, themselves, be highly illiquid? No chance. CMBX and ABX have been known to trade in markets that are 5-10 points, or percentage of notional value, and that's for small size (5-10 million dollars). To hedge the size here ... well, I can't imagine the costs.

Just to review: They had toxic positions, hedged them, and then removed the hedges, but (from what I can tell) didn't sell the positions (while trying to one-to-one hedge the). There's something to be said for taking the hit you know about today instead of trying to call a bottom.

2. Regulators were having calls, as regular as daily, with Bear. From the article:

Bear Stearns's ... risk officers were meeting in the sixth-floor executive offices with staffers from the Securities and Exchange Commission. The regulators had traveled from Washington to make sure Bear Stearns had access to the day-to-day loans it needed to fund its trading operation. After scrutinizing the firm's $400 billion balance sheet well into the afternoon, the regulators agreed to reconvene with Bear Stearns managers for daily briefings until the market crisis passed.

Now, uness Bear is different from ever other financial institution, when it's regulators come knocking it's unusual--everyone walks more straight and takes much more care when dealing with them. The reason is simple: there's nothing to be gained when a regulator is pleased, the best thing that can come from making regulators happy is avoiding the situation where said regulators are unhappy and consequences arise. I wonder if, ever, in the history of Bear, regulators called in to check on their situation daily. This should have been a major warning sign and left employees involved extremely uncomfortable as it was going on.

3. Many sophisticated investors walked away from a deal with Bear.

• KKR walked away, and we never learn what their concerns were (Bear was focused on not crossing clients)
• Allianz SE's Pacific Investment Management Co. (PIMCO) had discussions with Bear that "fell apart"
• Fortress discussed a merger with Bear (sounds similar to what I wrote about recently) that never went anywhere

Now, J.C. Flowers walked away because both sides had issues, so I don't count them. Similarly, I don't count the hiring of Lazard, and that effort failing to bearing fruit. I'm not sure why each of these potential transactions fizzled, but certainly it seems like a pattern that one can read into.

4. Two institutions with a major financial stake in Bear's viability expressed concerns. One of these, PIMCO, unless I'm missing something glaring, had been in talks to acquire a stake in Bear and declined (second bullet point above). Maybe they knew something the rest of us didn't, from their earlier talks and whatever due diligence they had performed? It would make sense, but would probably also be illegal. More likely? PIMCO was focused on Bear and extrapolated to the current market conditions. Perhaps, also, some unease exuded from the senior PIMCO ranks...

On a side note, what's with the illustrations? Maybe this is going to be a chapter or section of a book? It reads that way almost... Newscorp swooping in to add a fresh (and awkward) feel to the WSJ? It was distracting to say the least. Of course Dealbreaker goes (almost scarily) deeper with this observation (as is their charge), and they have some amusing thoughts.

I can't wait for part two!

1. Publicidad racista antiblanca.
2. Anuncio de TV: Coche gigante.
3. Anuncio en la calle: Imbécil.

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De acordo com a BBC Brasil, "a descoberta é a última em uma série de ações bem sucedidas da empresa [Petrobras], aumentando as esperanças de que o Brasil será a grande novidade em petróleo global". A agência cita trecho da publicação norte-americana, segundo o qual com o preço do petróleo batendo novos recordes, grandes descobertas no Brasil iriam aumentar o otimismo da indústria energética de que o país poderia suprir petróleo suficiente para manter o ritmo da crescente demanda.

As descobertas, de acordo com a BBC Brasil, seriam especialmente bem-vindas nos Estados Unidos, garantindo uma nova fonte de petróleo em seu hemisfério. A agência cita o jornal americano, segundo o qual "o foco de atenção é a Bacia de Santos, uma série de campos de petróleo potenciais enterrados sob milhas de águas oceânicas, terra e uma teimosa camada de sal. A perfuração exploratória em diferentes campos produziu petróleo bastante similar, alimentando uma excitante nova teoria: de que a bacia pode ser um contínuo mega-depósito de petróleo".

A BBC informa que o Wall Street Journal alerta para o otimismo exagerado, visto que "a exploração e a extração de petróleo em águas super-profundas são uma empreitada cara e arriscada". Mesmo com os riscos, diz o jornal americano, os investidores não estão esperando para apostar neste potencial. "A fatia da Petrobras negociada publicamente aumentou tanto este ano que o valor de mercado da companhia ultrapassou o de empresas de nomes conhecidos, como a General Electric e a Microsoft", afirma o jornal.

A agência pública de notícias inglesa dá destaque a afirmação do editorial "Uma superpotência econômica, e agora com petróleo também", da revista The Economist, segundo o qual "há motivos para se acreditar que a potência econômica da América do Sul de 190 milhões de habitantes está começando a fazer a diferença no mundo".

A revista, segundo a BBC Brasil, diz que a comparação do crescimento do Brasil com a forte expansão chinesa é "enganosa", já que a China é um país mais pobre. "É muito mais difícil para um país de média renda, como o Brasil, crescer neste ritmo", diz a revista.
Ivan Richard
Da Agência Brasil

“Se o governo do Estado de São Paulo pretende vender a Nossa Caixa, entendo que a melhor forma seria um leilão, pois estaria garantido, de forma transparente, o melhor preço para o Estado. O Itaú teria interesse em participar desse eventual leilão”, declarou.

O presidente da Assembléia Legislativa de São Paulo, José Carlos Vaz de Lima (PSDB), afirmou ontem que a instituição tem condições de aprovar a incorporação da Nossa Caixa pelo Banco do Brasil 60 dias após o envio de um projeto do governo paulista para a aprovação da alienação da sua participação no capital do banco estadual, que é de 71,25% - os 28,75% restantes estão em poder de acionistas minoritários.

Lances do BB

O início das negociações para compra da Nossa Caixa é o lance mais ousado do Banco do Brasil no seu plano de manter a liderança no mercado. Essa reação iniciou-se em 2007 com o começo da incorporação do Banco do Estado de Santa Catarina (Besc), processo que deverá estar concluído até agosto, de acordo com informações do próprio banco. Paralelamente, o BB vai incorporar aos poucos as agências do Banco do Estado do Piauí, já federalizado.

O aproveitamento desses antigos bancos estaduais, no entanto, representa pouco diante da necessidade de crescimento num mercado que tende a ser cada vez mais concentrador. Com o anúncio feito na noite de quarta-feira, o BB acelera essa estratégia, de forma a responder aos concorrentes privados que adquiriram pelo menos 30 bancos nos últimos dez anos. As informações são do jornal O Estado de S. Paulo. (AE)

el por que, para que, cuando usar con una columna, cuando usar con varias columnas etc. además de la particularidad de MyISAM del index FULLTEXT para búsquedas...

y la explicación la he encontrado en estas magnificas lecturas:

Apuntes de MySQL: Campos indice
MySQL FULLTEXT Searching

recomendadas como aspirina :P

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Didirikan sejak tahun 1980-an, PT. Roda Box, merupakan sebuah perusahaan industri modern yang berorientasi pada produksi pengemasan 'Carton Box'

PT. Roda Box menawarkan sebuah pelayanan jasa secara profesional, inovatif, dan fleksibel dalam menjawab segala kebutuhan setiap individu, dalam peningkatan pengembangan produknya.

Dalam beberapa tahun terakhir, PT. Roda Box berhasil membangun bisnis dan reputasinya, sebagai sebuah perusahaan dengan tingkat integritas yang tinggi dalam tingkat penjualannya. PT Roda Box juga berhasil menunjukkan komitmen yang sangat baik kepada langganan-langganannya, dalam hal mutu, inovasi dan kepercayaan.

Algunas definiciones:
* Development Assistance Committee (DAC) de la OECD.
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Fuentes:
Introducción
Sustainable Development. US & Foreign Aid (en inglés)

Autora: Tamara Ulla

Introduction to Ephesians

Chapter 1

Dear Ephesians (1:1-2); God's Plan (1:3-6); Redeemed By the Blood of the Lamb (1:7-8a); The Mystery of Christ (1:8b-10); God's Powerful Plan (1:11-12); Sealed and Guaranteed (1:13-14); That You May Know God (1:15-19); God's Power For Us (1:20-23)

Chapter 2

What's Your Problem? (2:1-3); But God Made Us Alive (2:4-7); The Gift of God's Grace (2:8-10); Brought Near By the Blood of Christ (2:11-13); Law and Peace (2:14-16); Peace Leading to God (2:17-18 ); You Belong (2:19-22)

Chapter 3

A Mystery Revealed (3:1-6); Grace and Humility (3:7-8a); Our Audience (3:8b-13); God's Power In You (3:14-16); Filled With the Love of Christ (3:17-19), audio; Soli Deo Gloria (3:20-21), audio;

Chapter 4

Indicative and Imperative (4:1-2), audio; Walk Worthy of the Calling (4:1-3), audio; One God, One Church (4:4-6), audio; Use Your Gifts! (4:7-10); The Purpose of Ministers (4:11-13); Growth in Truth and Love (4:14-16), audio; What We Were (4:17-19), audio; What You Are (4:20-24), audio; Speaking the Truth (4:25), audio; Anger (4:26), audio; Do Not Give the Devil a Foothold (4:27), audio; Don't Steal, But Work (4:28 ); Every Last Word (4:29), audio; Do Not Grieve the Holy Spirit (4:30), audio; Not Anger, But Forgiveness (4:31-32)

Chapter 5

Like Father, Like Children (5:1-2); No Impurity (5:3-5); Empty Words and Peer Pressure (5:6-7); Awake, O Child of Light! (5:8-14); Filled With What? (5:15-20); Submission? What's That? (5:21-24); Husbands, Love Your Wives! (5:25-27), audio; Marriage and Church (5:28-33), audio;

Chapter 6

Children, Obey Your Parents (6:1-3), audio; Parenting: Nurture, Not Exasperation (6:4), audio; How Shall We Then Work? (6:5-9), audio; The Full Armor of God (6:10-13), audio; Truth as a Belt (6:14a), audio; Breastplate of Righteousness (6:14b), audio; Readiness of the Gospel (6:15), audio; Shield of Faith (6:16), audio; Helmet of Salvation (6:17), audio; Pray in the Spirit (6:18-20), audio; Final Greetings (6:21-24), audio

...............

NESTA EDIÇÃO (clique nos títulos para ler)

.

REMINISCÊNCIAS DE UM MERO EXTINTOR DE INCÊNDIO, de André de Leones.

TIPO EXPORTAÇÃO, de Daniela dos Santos.

HQ TRISTE, de Leandro Resende.

POR UM MINUTO DE ATENÇÃO, de Susana Fuentes.

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[Imagem: Estudo sobre folha (2008), de Dheyne de Souza.]

...............

NESTA EDIÇÃO (clique nos títulos para ler)

.

DOS COLABORADORES:

A TUMBA, de Daniela Mendes.
DE LINHAS E OMOPLATAS (III), de Dheyne de Souza.
DIAS DAS MÃES, de Lúcia Bettencourt.
O CU DO MUNDO - PARTE 5, de Marco Aurélio Cremasco.

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DO CONVIDADO:

ÚLTIMAS CONFISSÕES DO PADRE VOADOR, de Paulo Lima.

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[Imagem: Conversion (1912), de Egon Schiele.]

Antes, às 8h, o Instituto Brasileiro de Economia (Ibre) da Fundação Getulio Vargas divulga o Índice Geral de Preços de Mercado (IGP-M) referente ao período de 21 de abril a 10 de maio. O coordenador de Análises Econômicas do Ibre, Salomão Quadros, atenderá os jornalistas por telefone.
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Agência Brasil

Fannie's CEO sees home prices falling about 7-9% for the year, which would lead to a 15-19% peak-to-trough decline in the average national home prices.

But, the problem is that Fannie Mae does not use foreclosed properties in its price index. The FNM significantly understates home price declines. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index is already down 5% nationally from the beginning of the year. Annualized, that means a 30% for all of 2008.

Home prices minus foreclosures! Wonderfully useless indicator!

Sources: Minyanville | The Big Picture

Voilà, pour les prix, et je vous rappelle que c'est un échantillon. Mais je ne suis pas d'accord avec cette analyse, les taux vont monter. Soit PAP a rédigé ces lignes il y a quelques semaines, soit ils ne lisent pas la presse spécialisée (comme nous) : Crédit : avis de hausse sur les taux

"Si le niveau des prix immobiliers doit encore s'ajuster à la capacité d'endettement des acquéreurs, la tendance à la baisse des taux - les taux des prêts immobiliers ont baissé de 0,55 % depuis juillet 2007* - et les mesures de déduction des intérêts d'emprunts devraient permettre un atterrissage en douceur des prix."

A défaut de l'indice d'avril, que je cherchais ce matin, voici celui de mars.

Pas d'accord avec ces prévisons de baisse des taux ! Sous la pression inflationniste, les taux vont repartir à la hausse. Tricher n'est pas Bernanke, et l'économie européenne n'est pas l'économie américaine, même si toute crise économique américaine a des répercussions mondiales.

Nikkei: 14,049.26 gaining +282.4 (+2.05%)

Hang Seng: 26,241.02 gaining +485.67 (+1.89%) and

Singapore ST: 3,267.60 gaining +31.50 (+0.97%).

Taiwan opened slightly higher this morning but lost its small gains around 10:00 (GMT+8):