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Ten hours of sitting next this effortlessly stylish (the handbag...tan leather!) but awkwardly shy gentleman wasn't too bad. We never talked because I suspect he was hesitant about his limited English. I had half of a day to ruminate possible icebreakers -- "Isn't the Canadian flight attendant's French accent terrible?"; "Poor Raymond Domenech...vive Les Bleus!"; "...but our Laura Bush has never posed naked...haw haw." When I sensed that he was glancing at my Economist, I deliberately paced myself through the story on Sarkozy's military overhaul. I even took out my Foreign Affairs as conversation bait -- he seemed cultivated; disregard my thug, monsieur, so am I! -- and yet, neither of us broached conversation.

The jetway spilled us into Beijing's new $3.7 billion international terminal. Exclusive sneak peak: The roof is a sloping lattice of wooden slabs. Red columns line the train tracks that shuttle travelers to the main terminal. The building was stunningly expansive, impressive, and new, and it visibly drew upon traditional Chinese architectural cues.

The air is just as bad but the city was noticeably cleaner. Olympics sponsorships are everywhere and the excitement is considerable. Bank of China is the official bank. Nokia, I believe, is the official cell phone. Coke is the official drink. 50 Cent and T-Pain, by your faithful correspondent's estimation, are likely the respective official rapper and R&B crooner.

The traffic is still terrible, because of the traffic. Not like two years ago, when I sat in a car near Beijing University stuck in an awful jam around 6 p.m. -- rush hour. The traffic parted like the sea, and Moses, in the form of two cop cars and a black limo, sprinted through, sirens blaring. The driver told me that the area we were in was near the neighborhood where all the high ranking government officials lived. All of the traffic already jammed in rush hour, had stopped and parted to make way for this particular official entourage.

"Are they rushing off to solve a national crisis?" I asked.

"No, it's dinner time," was the reply.

Unfettered government privilege aside, the Chinese also appear considerably more hip since I last visited... if only it was possible to look good in this sweltering humidity. I sure can't. Zhong Guo ren, jia you!

Profound thoughts tomorrow.

Beautiful morning at Carkeek.  Loaded up the GS and hit Diva for a doppio espresso on my way down.  There was one guy there before me fishing the surface and another guy [the old man from Patrick's, John, I think] who stepped in just before I left.  Nobody got so much as a bump, nor had they had much luck recently.  The water was unusually dark and cloudy considering there hadn't been much rain.  Near high tide, fished chartreuse/white, then pink/white baitfish patterns to try to get some visibility.

Damn orcas...

GS broke out of its resistance level and is looking to head higher. The MACD crossover with rising RSI make the trend seem like it will go up. We could see 195 in the short term. The only thing that worries me is that 2 guys from BSC got indicted, but we will have to wait and see how that pans out. Either way I will be looking for a buy point soon.

It will be interesting to see if the Head and Shoulders pattern plays out or if the technical indicators; RSI on the rise, a recent MACD cross, and a possible 10SMA cross of the 30EMA coming up. These all point to the stock heading higher.

Wall Street banks and other large financial institutions have begun putting intense pressure on Congress to hold off on legislation that would curtail their highly profitable trading in oil contracts -- an activity increasingly blamed by lawmakers for driving up prices to record levels.

Representatives of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, along with the trade associations for hedge funds and other financial groups, have lobbied the offices of key legislators, briefed senior staffers on committees that oversee pivotal parts of the energy markets and distributed research materials explaining their view about oil and how it's traded.

In a pair of lengthy and sometimes testy, closed-door sessions in the Senate last week, executives from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, two of Wall Street's largest investment banks, made the case that their multibillion-dollar investments in energy contracts have not led to higher oil prices. Rather, they told Democratic staff members of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, a panel responsible for energy policy, that the trades allow international markets to operate efficiently and that the run-up in oil prices results not from speculation but from actual imbalances of supply and demand.

But the executives were met with skepticism and occasional hostility. "Spare us your lecture about supply and demand," one of the Democratic aides said, abruptly cutting off one of the executives, according to a staff member in the room.

Another aide at the meetings warned the executives that no matter what arguments they muster, it would be hard to prevent Congress from acting. Referring to a vote earlier this year to impose new mileage standards on automobile makers, the aide said, "At 90 bucks a barrel, Congress rolled the autos for the first time in 30 years -- is it too much to think that Congress will impose more restrictions on you if oil goes to $150 dollars a barrel?"

Goldman and Morgan declined to comment about the meetings.

Separately, lobbyists for the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) and other financial entities such as hedge funds roamed through congressional office buildings this month and, in the Senate, left behind short policy statements that defended the current state of regulation. "Blaming speculation for the increase in energy prices is to confuse causation and correlation," one of the documents said.

A second document, or "talker," asserted: "Congress and regulators have acted to strengthen oversight of the energy markets. Give the new authorities time to work."

But time is running short. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency that regulates oil trading, has drawn the increasing ire of lawmakers for exempting financial firms from rules that limit speculative buying, a prerogative usually reserved for airlines and trucking companies that need to lock in future fuel costs. The CFTC has also waived regulations on U.S. investors who trade commodities on some overseas markets, allowing them to accumulate large quantities of the future oil supply by making purchases on lightly regulated foreign exchanges.

Under pressure from lawmakers, the CFTC and its British counterpart agreed Tuesday to impose new limits on the trading of the United States' benchmark oil contract on a London exchange. Such trading of West Texas Intermediate oil contracts has been occurring beyond the purview of U.S. regulators on the London platform, the Intercontinental Exchange.

The move did not go far enough to satisfy some Democrats who criticized the CFTC for abdicating the job of policing overseas oil traders to the Intercontinental Exchange.

Until recently, Congress had been reluctant to intervene in the energy futures markets, and the lobbying by financial entities has been a major reason. "We have known since 2001 that there were problems here, but we've run up against people on Wall Street who don't want to be helpful in policing the market," said Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), one of several lawmakers frustrated by the effectiveness of the financial lobby.

More credit losses seen costing global banks $1 trillion as credit crisis hits second year

NEW YORK (AP) -- There are new signs that the worst of the global credit crisis is yet to come, and that banks and brokerages caught up in the market turmoil may lose $1 trillion by the time it has passed.

Major U.S. investment banks this week announced yet another painful quarter amid the implosion of mortgage-backed securities and risky credit investments. Regional banks have scrambled to secure fresh capital to stay in business, and by Wednesday there was new talk that embattled investment bank Lehman Brothers might be forced into a sale.

With each passing quarter, Wall Street's top bankers have indicated that the worst of the market turmoil was over -- only to face more pain months later. The uncertainty has caused already battered investors to lose confidence in financial companies, and expectations have increased that more layoffs, asset sales and capital raising will be needed in the weeks ahead.

"We thought this was going to be the kitchen-sink quarter, and we're finding out that CEOs and CFOs still don't have a handle on the credit crisis," said William Rutherford, a former state treasurer of Oregon who now runs Rutherford Investment Management. "We haven't disinterred all the dead bodies. What else is out there?"

The deepening credit crisis could cost the global financial system some $945 billion by the time it is over, according to a report from the International Monetary Fund. So far, banks and brokerages have written down nearly $300 billion from bad bets on mortgage-backed securities and other risky investments.

After reporting largely disappointing second-quarter results, executives at Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Lehman Brothers still weren't entirely clear when the hemorrhaging will end. David Viniar, Goldman Sachs' chief financial officer, on Monday said that March marked "the bottom of the crisis, at least for now" -- making no predictions of what lies ahead.

Morgan Stanley reported profit fell 61 percent on Wednesday, while Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. posted a nearly $3 billion loss. And Goldman Sachs Group Inc., considered to have the best handle on the crisis, said profit dropped by 11 percent.

The run on their competitor Bear Stearns three months ago forced the government to save it through a sale to JPMorgan Chase & Co. And, since then there has been persistent worry among industry leaders and analysts that a full-fledged bank failure is in the offing if losses continue to mount.

Those worries have hovered over Lehman Brothers since it posted a stunning loss, demoted two top executives and was forced to raise $6 billion in new capital. There's been more talk that Chief Executive Richard Fuld is facing either a sale of the company or massive layoffs to stay afloat.

A spokesman for Lehman declined to comment.

The concerns go beyond just brokerages, though, with continued fears about the strength of regional banks. Fifth Third Bancorp raised $2 billion of capital on Wednesday, following a move by rival KeyCorp to raise $1.6 billion, all toward a goal of bolstering balance sheets.

Goldman Sachs analyst Richard Ramsden said in a report Tuesday that U.S. banks might need $65 billion more to brace themselves from losses that might not peak until 2009. The investment bank lowered its price targets on 14 banking companies, and slashed earnings per share forecasts for 11 of them.

"Banks will not turn until a peak in credit costs is in sight," he said in the report.

Joseph Quinlan, chief market strategist of Bank of America, said capital could become more scarce if big institutional investors don't see things turn around. He said new money could rush into the market, and help prop up weak financial institutions, once investors get a better sense that there's been a peak -- which has so far been a hard statement for investment banks to make definitively.

"We've had all these write-offs globally, and in just the past couple of days all the bad news is front and center because of earnings season," he said. "All of the bad news we thought was out there has been confirmed, and its a stark reminder of credit stress and overall angst that continues to linger."

Ceza - karşı takıma el ver FB / GS / BJK / TS
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Ceza - karşı takıma el ver FB / GS / BJK / TS

Goldman Sachs 2Q profit falls but beats expectations, driven by asset management, underwriting NEW YORK (AP) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the world's largest investment bank, on Tuesday said second-quarter earnings fell about 10 percent, but still easily beat lowered Wall Street expectations on higher fees fromasset management and stock underwriting.

The company reported a profit of $2.05 billion, or $4.58 per share, for the three months ended May 30 compared to $2.29 billion, or $4.93 per share a year earlier. Revenue fell 7 percent to $9.42 billion from $10.18 billion a year earlier.

The latest results easily surpassed Wall Street expectations for a profit of $3.42 per share on $8.74 billion of revenue, according to analysts polled by Thomson Financial.

Shares of the company rose $2.46, or 1.3 percent, to $184.55 in morning trading.

"Given the difficult market conditions, we are particularly pleased to be able to report strong results for the second quarter," said Chairman and Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein in a statement. "We are realistic about the market challenges we face, but times of market dislocation also produce opportunities, and we will continue to take advantage of the most attractive of these as they arise."

Goldman benefited from a $725 million gain during the quarter from its own investments, including a $214 million gain from its stake in Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. Revenue for all of Goldman's trading and principal investments fell 16 percent to $5.59 billion.

The results were in sharp contrast to the nearly $3 billion loss that Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. reported on Monday. The nation's fourth-largest investment bank was forced to raise nearly $6 billion in fresh capital, and investor angst about the loss led to the ouster of its chief financial officer and chief operating officer.

Global banks and brokerages have been roiled by the implosion of mortgage-backed securities and leveraged loans, which forced them to write down nearly $300 billion worth of assets since last year. Morgan Stanley on Wednesday will report its results for the second quarter.

Goldman reported that revenue from its investment banking business fell 2 percent to $1.69 billion. However, its financial advisory business posted revenue of $800 million -- 13 percent higher due to robust trading during the quarter.

Revenue from Goldman's asset management business surge 18 percent to $2.15 billion. Goldman said the increase was due to "market appreciation in equity assets' and inflows into money market and fixed-income products.

Goldman said it had $226.87 billion of capital as of May 30. That includes $44.82 billion in shareholder's equity.

Financials were absolutely the worst sector to be long despite having started to fall as early as April of 2007. Put options on stocks like BSC and LEH and GS proved to be big winners. The XLF Financial Select SPDR ETF fell faster from December to March than it had in all of 2007.

The S&P 500 was not spared, dropping as far as 13.5% from the December Fed meeting to the March bottom.

So where do you hide? Bonds did pretty well relatively.

But commodities really made your money grow!

Here is a comparison of two widely held mutual funds, the Dodge & Cox Stock Fund (DODGX) and the Pimco Total Return Fund (PTRAX). Even though DODGX is a waning fund, crushed by the weight of its own success, the difference here is quite remarkable. By making the switch, a passive buy and hold 401k investor could have saved two years worth of gains (at an average of 8% per year) in only six months. Not to mention the lower stress level that comes with a shallower drawdown in equity.

Ich gebe es ja zu: Ich mag keine Asiaten. Das ist kein Vorurteil, vielmehr ein Urteil. Nachdem ich zwei Wochen in Peking nur eine saubere Toilette gefunden habe (Danke, Lufthansa Center, I enjoyed it!), habe ich nicht mehr die große Angst vor der unglaublichen Marktmacht der Chinesen. Wobei wir jetzt nicht China mit Asien vertauschen wollen, japanische Autos und Motorräder sind durchaus feste Größen. Aber China?

BMW fühlt sich in China offensichtlich wohler. Die aktuellen Einzylinder kommen aus China. Gekauft werden sie so gut wie gar nicht, zumindestens habe ich noch keine einzige gesehen. Irgendwie schade, sind ja coole Teile. Aber leider auch teuer und das Geheimnis rund um den Produktionsstandort ist keiner. Ich persönlich habe ja an der Einzylinderliga nicht so das ganz große Interesse. Wenn, dann stünde eine Yamaha XT vor der Tür, irgendwie ein sehr sympathisches Bike. Doch etwa 8000 Euro würde ich für die billigste BMW echt nicht bezahlen wollen.

Nicht nur bei den Einzylindern erfreut sich BMW an China, nein, auch richtig teure Ware kommt aus dem Land des Lächelns. Zum Beispiel gis Gussräder der R1200GS. Eine echte GS hat Speichenräder, klar. Wer es nicht kapiert und versehentlich falsch bestellt, wird mit Ware aus China bestraft.

Grundsätzlich gut so. Doch eigentlich keine schöne Sache, denn beim Kauf einer BMW erwarte ich mir ein Produkt aus Deutschland. Natürlich, auch ein Porsche Boxster kommt nicht aus Stuttgart sondern aus Finland. Aber Finnland ist eben nicht China, deshalb finde ich hier das Verschweigen des Produktionsstandports nicht so tragisch.

Ich wäre ja für eine Kennzeichnungspflicht. Frei nach "ACHTUNG, SIE KAUFEN EIN PRODUKT AUS CHINA. FÜR QUALITÄT UND EINHALTUNG DER MENSCHENRECHTE KANN NICHT GARANTIERT WERDEN".

Vielleicht bin ich einer der wenigen, die Produkte aus Niedrigstlohnländern ablehnen. Ich mag keine Möbel von IKEA. Warum? Weil ein Couchtisch für 10 Euro niemals unter fairen Bedingungen produziert werden kann. Immerhin, IKEA gibt den Produktionskostenvorteil an den Endverbraucher weiter. BMW leider nicht, denn der Chinaschrott ist ganz schön teuer.

The first shoulder was formed around April 7th, Support was at 161 and it moved to 181 then back to 161.
This was followed by the forming of the head around May 1st when GS climbed to 203 to only fall to support again at 161 around June 10th.
Now it looks like a possible 3rd shoulder is forming as the stock bounced off support and is heading towards resistance at 181. Currently GS is trading at 178 and they are reporting earnings tomorrow, 6/17.

I don't think the HnS pattern matters here because GS reports earnings tomorrow. If the earnings are good GS will break the resistance around 181 and possible trade up to 194 where it's 200MA is. But if they are bad and disappoint we can GS trade down to support at 161.

Source: Aleeka.com

The Timeline

2007

A JANUARY 03 Former Chariman & CEO Alan "Ace" Greenberg exercises options to buy 150,000+ shares at $73.75 and he immediately sells all of those shares at the market price of $163.11. He realizes an immediate profit of $13 million.
B JUNE 22 Bear Stearns commits $3.2bn in secured loans to bail out one of its hedge funds. It says its troubles are 'relatively contained'.
C JULY 17 Bear Stearns reveals that one of its hedge funds has lost all of its value. Another worth 9 per cent of its value at the end of April.
D OCTOBER 22 Bears Stearns secures a share-swap deal with Citic, China's largest securities firm. Citic pays $1bn for about 6 per cent stake in Bear Stearns. The US bank agrees to eventually pay the same for about 2 per cent of Citic.
E NOVEMBER 1 Newspaper suggests that CEO Cayne was out of touch during the collapse of the two hedge funds. He dismisses the media concerns as "noise".
F DECEMBER 7 Joe Lewis, Bahamas-based billionaire, up his stake to 8 per cent, showing that he believes the Bear Stearns shares are undervalued.(He went on to realize a $1 Billion loss in Bear Stearns)
G DECEMBER 20 The bank reports its first-ever quarterly loss. The loss is nearly four times analysts' forecasts, and includes a $1.9bn writedown on its holdings of mortgage assets.
H DECEMBER 21 Company Insiders sell almost $50 million in stock. Insiders included CEO James Cayne (Who personally dumped $15 million of the stock), former CEO Alan Greenberg (Sold $8 million) and Future CEO Alan Schwartz ($6 million sold).

2008

JANUARY 7 2008 CEO Cayne retires under pressure, but stays on as non-executive chairman. Alan Schwartz becomes president and chief executive.

FEBRUARY 14 In reaction to the fall in the bank's share price since the share-swap deal, it emerges that Citic has been renegotiating the agreement.

FEBRUARY 28 Rebel investors in Bear Stearns seize two of the bank's failed hedge funds in an attempt to regain some of the $1.6bn lost in the previous summer's collapse.

MARCH 7 Carlyle Capital Corporation sees its shares suspended in Amsterdam.
The $22bn hedge fund suffered exposure to mortgage backed securities, and had received substantial additional margin calls and default notices from its lenders.Bear Stearns is seen as heavily exposed to Carlyle Group, founder and 15 per cent owner of CCC. *Carlyle Capital Corp. (CCC) was formed in August 2006 by the Carlyle Group for the purpose of making investments in U.S. mortgage-backed securities. In March 2008, only 19 months after being formed, CCC defaulted on about US$ 16.6 billion of debt. Previous and Current board members of the Carlyle Group include
George H.W. Bush, former United States President George W. Bush, current United States President Shafig Bin Laden, brother of Osama Bin Laden James Baker, former US Secretary of State Arthur Levitt, former Chairman of The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Donald Rumsfeld, former Secretary of Defense

March 10, 2008

Alan "Ace" Greenberg, responding to the price liquidity runors which caused shares of Bear to drop 10% in early trading, told CNBC that the liquidity rumors surrounding the company are "totally ridiculous." Shares responded and initially jumped on the news, only to lose more ground later in the day.

March 11, 2008

Noon: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke attends a lunch meeting with the "Who's Who on Wall St." Attendees JPMorgan Chase 's Jamie Dimon, Goldman Sachs’s CEO Lloyd Blankfein, Lehman Brothers boss Richard Fuld, Morgan Stanley President James Gorman, Citigroup’s Robert Rubin, Blackstone Group’s Stephen Schwarzman and Merrill Lynch’s John Thain. Who's noticeably absent? Bear Stearns! Every major financial institution in the United States, except Bear Stearns, had a meeting about bank liquidity. There were rumors of liquidity problems at Bear Stearns since that Monday! What do you think they were talking about???
Evening: Jim Cramer, when asked his view of selling Bear Stearns, responds "NO, NO, NO! ...Bear Stearns is FINE...Bear Stearns is not in trouble..Don't move your money from Bear...That's just silly, don't be silly!"
MARCH 13 CCC collapses. Bear Stearns shares fall 17 per cent as investors grow anxious about its exposure to CCC. Schwartz comments: "Our balance sheet is not weakened at all."

Obvious Insider Trading

The following chart proves that there was insider trading during the Bear Stearns collapse. Look at the major jump in stock price AFTER the deal was announced that Bear would be sold for $2/share but BEFORE any news that JP Morgan would increase their offer to $10/share. The price exceeded $7/share before the news of an increased offer. Would you be willing to pay $7 for a company which is to be sold for $2? Would you even be willing to pay $2.01 for a company to be sold for $2? Somebody new something!!
What about Jimmy Cayne? The former CEO was largest employee stock holder. He didn't sell his remaining 5.6 million shares at $2. He sold his shares on March 25th, the day after the SECOND offer price of $10!

MARCH 14 JP Morgan and the New York Federal Reserve rush to the rescue of Bear Stearns. Shares crash almost 50 per cent.
MARCH 16 JP Morgan agrees to buy Bear Stearns in a deal that values the stricken bank's shares at $2 each, with JP Morgan exchanging 0.05473 of each of its shares for one Bear share.
MARCH 22 A powerful group of shareholders including British billionaire Joe Lewis plot a legal challenge against the $2 a share, cut-price offer.
MARCH 23 It emerges that JP Morgan is in talks with the US Federal Reserve and Treasury Department about a possible increased offer for Bear Stearns.
MARCH 24 JP Morgan raises its offer for Bear Stearns to $10 a share

MARCH 25 Jimmy Cayne, Bear Stearns’ chairman and former chief executive, sells his 5pc stake.
People's life savings were wiped out and many sold at $2 on the news of the offer but someone was buying, and buying heavily! Someone made a FORTUNE because they had non-public information.
The criminals can easily be identified if the SEC did its job and investigated this. There hasn't been ANY inquiries to date! ]]> http://saltcastings.wordpress.com/?p=9 Fri, 13 Jun 2008 04:29:03 +0000 saltcastings http://saltcastings.wordpress.com/?p=9 My ADV Rider stickers came today, all the way from Toronto.  Thanks Gadget Boy.  

Futbolcu spor adamı galatasaray spor klubü kurucularından Ali Sami Yen 29Temmuz 1951 de istanbulda öldü.Ünlü yazar ve dilci Şemsettin Sami'nin, oğlu olan Ali Sami Yen 20 haziran 1886'da İstanbulda doğdu mekteb-i sultan-i de (Galatasaray Lisesi)de öğrenim gördüğü yıllarda spora başlamıştır. 1905'te okul arkadaşı(Emin Bilent ,Cevdet Kalpakçı,Abidin Dağver ,Asım Tevfik sonumut)ile birlikte GS spor klübukuruluşunda öncülük eden YEN klübün 1.sicil nolu üyesi ve ilk başkanı oldu .