A couple of weeks ago I noticed that ESPN was trying to fill the dead space between the NBA Finals and the Olympics with yet another list. Normally I wouldn't have even bothered to look at it because ESPN's lists have been getting progressively more ludicrous (hitting its peak--or nadir--when John Hollinger put Dwayne Wade's 2006 "Fall down 7 times, shoot 14 free throws" performance above every single one of Michael Jordan's masterpieces). However, when I noticed that ESPN was trying to rank the most prestigious programs for college basketball in the 64-/65-team era, I was intrigued and figured it was worth some analysis.

The first thing I always do when looking at any list is to see the scoring system used and ESPN sure picked an interesting system. I'll break it into segments with some analysis:

• National title … 25
• Title game loss … 20
• National semifinal loss … 15
• Elite Eight loss … 10

- All four of these things seems pretty reasonable. I think that most fans would value the post-season performances in a way that is pretty close to the points awarded although it seems like a Final 4 berth is considered a great accomplishment for any program (even for the Duke's and North Carolina's of the college basketball world). I probably would have bumped up the national title, title game loss, and national semifinal loss by 5 points to give a 10 point spread between an Elite 8 loss and a national semifinal loss.

• Best W-L record in conference's regular season … 5
• 30-plus wins in a season … 5
• Sweet 16 loss … 5

- This is where the scoring starts to get questionable. I'm assuming the "Best W-L record in conference's regular season" is lawyerspeak for regular season conference champion. I'm glad that ESPN has decided that the America East regular season champion deserves more points for their in-conference performance than the regular season runner-ups in the ACC, Big East, and SEC. The 5 points for the 30-plus win season may seem like a lot, but in fact they are very rare (Duke leads with 9 such seasons and I could only count/remember 16 programs with any 30-win seasons since the start of the 1984-85 season) so that seems reasonable (as does the 5 points for a Sweet 16 loss although 16 programs achieve are awarded this each season while approximately the same number have achieved it for a 30-win season during the entire era). My main question with the 5-point awards is if they really consider all regular season conference titles the same as it is easier to win certain titles than others. One interesting note about this methodology is that Princeton with 10 regular season Ivy League titles is awarded 50 points with this methodology while Duke with 9 30-plus win seasons is only awarded 45 points for that feat (ignoring the fact that Duke probably won the regular season conference title most of those years).

• Conference tournament title … 3
• AP first-team All-American … 3
• Losing in NCAA second round … 3

- I'm assuming that the Ivy League regular season champ automatically gets the 3 points for winning the conference tournament title since they don't have a post-season tournament. This only further skews the points Princeton and UPenn get in this system as they receive 80 points and 96 points respectively for their Ivy League titles not to mention the 20-win seasons they racked up beating up on Cornell, Columbia, Harvard, and Brown. I'm perfectly fine with the AP 1st-team AA points as at most 5 teams a year will have a player earn that distinction. Perhaps they should have thrown in a National POY bonus as that player is the one who usually defines the season (Ralph Sampson, Christian Laettner, etc.). Likewise, I'm in agreement with the 3 points for the 2nd round NCAA tournament loss.

• Player in top 10 of NBA draft … 2
• NCAA first-round win as a 12-16 seed … 2
• NIT title … 2
• AP second-team All-American … 2

- This is where it starts to get really weird. Let's get the reasonable things out of the way first. Top 10 pick worth 2 points? Ok. That seems fine even if the draft was dominated by high schoolers and Euros for a few years. In the future, the one-and-done rule might make this benefit the schools that are willing to take the one-and-done guys even if it does hurt their APR. That is unless those guys start going to Europe. Cinderella getting 2 points for a 1st-round upset? Fine with this too even if we will all remember the Hampton upset of Iowa State more than we will remember the annual 5-12 upsets. AP second-team AA worth 2 points? Ok with this one too even if I think once you start getting to the 2nd team the players selected start getting more dependent on the voters. I'm too lazy to check this out (perhaps rtmsf can do it), but I'd be willing to venture there is a lot more variation in the guys selected to the 2nd team by various publications/groups than there is with the 1st team. Now for the crazy one. . .Awarding 2 points for a NIT title? Maybe in the 1950s, but today winning the NIT only makes you the butt-end of every more successful team in your conference. How many message board threads have trolls made mocking the 65th (now 66th) best team in country? I'll admit that the NIT champs would probably beat the 13-16 seeds most of the time, but is there really any pride in being the small fish (mediocre team) in the big ponds (power conference) that can beat up on the plankton (13-16 seeds)? I'd give the NIT champ 1 point overall, which leads into the next big problem. . .

• 20-29 wins in a season … 1
• NCAA tournament berth … 1
• Postseason NIT berth … 1
• AP third-team All-American … 1

- Let's get the easy ones out of the way. No problems here with the 20-29 wins or AP 3rd team AA getting 1 point. I would probably differentiate between 20-24 wins, which is usually a solid season, and 25-29 wins, which usually will put you into consideration for a top 4 seed if you're from a power conference. Like I said before the further down the AA list you go, the more variation you will have by publication/group, but it's not really worth arguing about for 1 point. The thing worth arguing about is giving the same number of points for a NCAA tournament berth and a postseason NIT berth. To borrow an over-used phrase from John McEnroe, "You cannot be serious!" While I recognize that in this system the NIT team can only receive 2 points from the tournament (if they win), it is ridiculous to even consider invitations to the 2 tournament similar when the entire selection special is based on camera crews camping out in rooms with bubble teams to see if they got into the NCAA tournament. Maybe the ESPN stat whizzes have access to different camera feeds than I do, but it seems like the players, coaches, and families are happier when they get into the NCAA tournament than when they find out they are going to the NIT (even if Madison Square Garden is a slight upgrade from Boise, Idaho--unless we're talking NBA). That's just one man's interpretation of the reactions I see although I could probably point out that a few years ago Georgetown declined an invitation to the NIT because they wanted to give their players more time to study for exams. . .in March. I wonder why Georgetown didn't turn down its #2 seed this year. Do John Thompson III and the Georgetown AD not care about those same exams any more?

• NCAA first-round loss to a 12-16 seed … -2
• Losing season … -3
• Ban from NCAA tournament … -3

- No problem with the first two although I wonder if a losing season is counted against you if you have it expunged from your record and throw your long-time assistant coach under the bus? Also, I'd consider a 15-16 season a disappointment while I would consider 8-20 a complete embarrassment, so I'd probably make the less than 10-win season a significantly bigger penalty. I think the NCAA tournament ban should be a much larger penalty in this scoring system as the public (and press) reaction tends to be pretty bad (see below).

>> Minimum 15 seasons in Division I
** Ties are broken by overall winning percentage since the 1984-85 season

- After all the issues with the scoring system, I'm not going to complain about these minor qualifiers and tiebreakers. Both of them seem reasonable and none of the top 50 teams were tied.

Now that we've looked the methodology it's time to pick apart the rankings to see what ESPN got right and what they screwed up. Duke is the run-away winner as even the most ardent Duke-hater (feel free to chime in here rtmsf) would agree that Coach K's Blue Devils have been the most dominant program of the era even if their results have been underwhelming the past few years. The Blue Devils are followed by the Jayhawks in 2nd and the Tar Heels in 3rd. I'm not going to argue much with this although I would have UNC in 2nd just because I consider Kansas a team that historically underperforms in the tournament (Mario Chalmers' shot and Danny and the Miracles not withstanding). Now onto the rankings I am utterly confused by.

Overated:
- UNLV: 8th?!? I loved Jerry Tarkanian's Runnin' Rebs, who may have been one of the best college teams ever even if they lost/threw the 1991 national semifinal against Duke, but there is no way this has been the 8th most prestigious program in the country over the past 20+ years just like Memphis isn't in that category. ESPN provides a pretty clear summary of why UNLV shouldn't be in the top 10: "2 NCAA sanctions; 10 coaches since 1984-85; 0 NCAA tourney wins between 1992 and 2007". I'd keep UNLV in the top 20, but they definitely don't belong in the top 10 with that track record.
- Xavier: The Muskeeters (at #17) have a nice Atlantic-10 program, but the fact that they have never made a Final 4 should automatically keep them out of the top 25. The Musketeers are buoyed by 21 combined conference titles, but have not really been a threat in the NCAA tournament having only racked up 15 NCAA tournament wins. Interestingly, Xavier came in 2 spots ahead of Cincinnati even though Xavier is widely considered the red-headed stepchild in the city.
- Temple: I don't mean to sound like Billy Packer ripping on the mid-majors (sorry, if you're not a BCS conference, you're a mid-major in my eyes), but the Owls never made the Final 4 despite five trips there under John Chaney. I think they're a very good program, but like Xavier, Temple shouldn't be in the Top 25 without a Final 4 appearance.
- Murray State: Now this is the point where I rip the little guy. I was absolutely stunned when I saw this one. The Racers always seem to be one of those teams you see at the bottom of the bracket and maybe every once in a while you decide to take a chance on them to pull off the huge upset. Unfortunately, if you're one of those people, you've only been rewarded once (1988 against 3rd-seeded NC State). The Racers piled up the points by dominating the Ohio Valley Conference racking up 22 (or 24 depending on your addition skills) conference titles and twelve 20+ win seasons (thanks to an easy conference schedule). Somehow this manages to put them above Villanova, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech, and Wake Forest.

Underrated:
- Maryland: The Terps (28th) are killed by the fact that they play in the ACC and have lost out on a ton of points thanks to playing in the same conference as Duke and UNC. Although Gary Williams hasn't had good teams the past few years, the Terps run especially in the Juan Dixon era should have been enough to propel them into the top 20. How does this program only rank 2 spots ahead of Murray State?
- Utah: I don't think the Utes would be able to move up much higher, but it would be interesting to see how high they would be on this list if they didn't have the misfortune of playing Kentucky so many times in the 1990s. While the Utes benefited playing in a softer conference than some of their peers on the list (SEC and ACC), the Mountain West has been a fairly strong conference in recent years.
- Florida: I'm not sure how much higher the Gators could move up because of their relative lack of success (not counting Lon Kruger's 1994 Final 4 run) before Joakim Noah and company ran off back-to-back titles, but it seems like that alone should be enough to crack the top 20 especially when programs like Xavier and Temple are ranked ahead of them despite not making a single Final 4 appearance. The Gators probably belong in the top 15 although that may be more of a recency effect, but it just seems that there recent run puts them at a level that isn't that much different than UNLV with its run with Larry Johnson.

Other points of interest:
- Coach K's current program (Duke) ranks #1. The program he left (Army) comes in tied for 298th, or as it is more commonly referred to "DFL". Hopefully the Duke athletic department program has a better succession plan in place than Army did when Coach K decides to leave the sidelines.
- I found this rather amusing from personal experience. Boston University comes in at 108th ahead of programs such as Clemson, Providence (with a Final 4 appearance), Washington, and USC.
- In the current SportsNation voting, Kentucky is in the lead (good work out of the Sea of Blue crowd) with Duke in 4th even though they have the most #1 votes (something tells me they were left off a lot of ballots or voted 25th). The three teams I singled out as being overrated in the top 25 were moved down quite a bit. Note: I thought they were overrated even before I saw the online voting.

Whether it was the unexpected departure of Michael Johns or the seemingly cruel way Ryan Seacrest told Michael that it was the end of the road, it seems fans are starting to question their faith in the show?

We've all seen our favorites depart earlier than we like in the past, but I've never seen a stunned hush set in on the studio audience like it did Thursday night when Ryan announced Michael's departure.

For some, it has shaken their very confidence in the validity of the show.  Others just chalk it up to Idol being more of a popularity contest than a talent competition.

To jump on the conspiracy bandwagon, I have to admit that I've questioned the voting numbers after my husband pointed out that we never hear anything about the voting being audited by some firm as we did for shows in my youth.

Even if I don't suspect executive intervention in the results, one can hardly put faith in a voting system that allows doe-eyed teenagers to repeatedly vote via text and phone for their favorite heartthrob for two hours straight.

So is this event just another day in reality show madness or do you feel like the "man behind the curtain" has been exposed?

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The first half hour was filled with a recap of Wednesday night's 2 ½ hour charity show (cause 150 minutes wasn't enough), a montage video of stars to the Monkee's "I'm a Believer," and an endless amount of celebrities plugging the donation number and website.

One plug even included comments from the three presidential candidates.  I loved that McCain took the comic route.

Of course we had the requisite group number to "Shout to the Lord," the "I Just Want to Celebrate" Ford video, and a guest performance.

Last year's winner Jordin Sparks teamed up with Chris Brown to sing "No Air."  Then there was the fan presentations promoting Jordin's success.

If you had any doubt that this whole segment was one big Idol promotion, Ryan cleared it up with his comment.

"The message here is that American Idol works."

Finally, we got to the bottom three.  No surprise, my pick to go home - David Archuleta - was safe again.  Equally expected was Syesha Mercado and Carly Smithson's critical status.

But then we get to the shockers.  Kristy Lee is safe and Michael Johns is in trouble.

As I look at the bottom three, I could easily see either Syesha or Carly being eliminated.  But then I - and, judging from the stunned hush, the audience - were both amazed to find that Michael is on the chopping block.

If this fact wasn't staggering enough, Ryan adds insult to injury by reminding us that last year they didn't send anyone home during "Idol Gives Back" but Michael is still going home.

Did the record-breaking 31 million votes get it wrong?

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What song inspires you?

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Honestly, I was expecting a droll night of one ballad after another, but I was actually surprised by a few of the performances.

Michael Johns is on a roll.  He picked another fitting song for his inspirational number with Aerosmith's "Dream On."  While I don't really see him as a rocker, I think he turned a pretty good performance.  And in a night bound to be plagued with lots of boring ballads, Michael stood out.

Also cashing in on a good song choice was Jason Castro, who finally stepped up and took a risk with an unusual rendition of "Somewhere Over the Rainbow."  I'm not entirely sure if I liked Israel Kamakawiwo'ole's version, because I always picture the Wizard of Oz when I hear this song.  And with the ukulele, I saw a beach scene with a little hut in the background.  The song was just different, but it was well done.  And for that Jason should get kudos.

Likewise, Kristy Lee Cook is getting wiser with her song choices.  Not only did Martina McBride's "Anyway" give her a country tune to showcase her voice, but her personal connection (and it was fitting) to the words of the song gave her an avenue to bring out the emotion of the song as well.  It's scary that I'm going to agree with Paula again, but this song definitely was one of her best performances.

On the other hand, song choice might not have worked in David Cook's favor.  He stepped out again by choosing a pretty unique song - "Innocent" by Our Lady Peace.  While I liked the beat of the song, I wasn't blown away by his performance which ended with a message on his hand to "Give Back."  Although this wasn't my favorite number, Cook still puts in a solid performance that should keep him in the running.

The other half of the Top 8 had good song choices, but still the performances didn't inspire.

I was happy to see Brooke White without an instrument as she performed Carole King's "You've Got a Friend" and her performance was enjoyable.  But, if I'm truthful, I think she made the song feel sad instead of inspirational and in doing so took out the thunder behind an otherwise pleasant performance. 

Another performance that didn't quite go the extra mile was Syesha Mercado.  As expected, Syesha picked another big ballad with "I Believe" by former Idol winner Fantasia.  And while she sang it beautifully, her performance didn't move me.  I have to agree with Randy and Simon that Syesha might have the voice to take on these big songs but she's missing the emotional bond that makes the ballad so powerful.

Similarly, I really wanted to like Carly Smithson's performance of "The Show Must Go On" because I'm a big fan of Queen.  And the song started off with potential with the whole orchestra in the background, but in the end I just didn't get it.  Not only did I not connect with the song, I'm still wondering where she was trying to go with it.

Finally, David Archuleta sang "Angels."  I'm probably in the minority here, but I was not enthusiastic about this performance.  I can't say that he performed it badly.  It just didn't leave an impression on me.  Tomorrow I will have forgotten all about the song.  And in this stage of the game, the performances need to be memorable.

My picks for the bottom three come down to emotion, or lack of it, in the case of my predictions.  In the bottom tier I nominate Archuleta, Carly and Syesha.  And I know that it's not likely to happen, but my pick to go home is Archuleta.

Click here to tell us which inspirational song you would have chosen.

---------------

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I'll offer my take and hopefully rtmsf will add his too later (see below).

Aside from a shaky performance at the free throw line against Mississippi State that made their 2nd round game much closer than it should have been, Memphis has totally dominated the opposition on its way to Monday night. I don't think I am going too far into the realm of hyperbole when I say that their performance in the last 3 games has been as dominant as any team I can remember from the Sweet 16 to the National Semifinals. The even more amazing thing is that a lot of people were picking the Tigers to lose each of those games. The Tigers gave us all an indication of how far off we were in the first game of that stretch when they destroyed Michigan State in their Sweet 16 game as they led 50-20 at half. After easily beating Texas in Houston to advance to the Final 4, the Tigers had a little tougher time with the Bruins who hung tough for a half. Despite the close score for most of the game, I never got the sense that Memphis might lose the game. Of course, the poor FT shooting was at the back of my mind. As I noted in my post immediately after the game, Chris Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose completely dominated the game with Rose controlling the game from end-to-end and CDR controlling it inside the 3-pt line. Joey Dorsey also submitted what may be the greatest 0-point performance in a Final 4 by a non-PG (I can't think of a great 0-pt performance by a PG, but just trying to be safe). Memphis also got a solid performance out of Shawn Taggert. One thing that has gone largely overlooked in the CDR-Rose lovefest was how good the Tigers played defense, which is something they have been doing all year. Perhaps it is because they are so captivating on offense or the fact that they rely on length and instincts rather than the Shane Battier step-in-front-for-the-charge style that the ESPN analysts seem to love so much. In any case, the Tigers' defense is what really gets things going for them. Perhaps, if their key guys stuck around for another year or two or Rose came in a few years earlier (and they learned how to shoot FTs), we would be talking about this Memphis team along the lines of a 21st century Runnin' Rebs team.

As for Kansas, like I said on Saturday night I'm not really sure what to say. They had one of the easiest paths to the Final 4 (based on opponents' seed) that I can remember and the cruised all the way to San Antonio with the exception of the Davidson game where they looked tight. However, they made up for it on Saturday night against #1 overall seed UNC. Their performance in the first 15 minutes of the game was among the best I have ever seen at the college level. They were all over the court hounding UNC into countless turnovers as they jumped out to a 40-12 lead. The image of the game for me was little-used, but much-hyped freshman Cole Aldrich ripping the ball away from everybody's national POY Tyler "Psycho T" Hansbrough. After Billy Packer declared the game was over with 7:32 left in the 1st half, Kansas fell apart and appeared to be headed towards an epic collapse when UNC brought the game to 54-50 with 11:16 left in the game. The Jayhawks survived with a late run of their own (possibly due to UNC running out of gas too). If you watched the first half of the game, you are aware of the tremendous pressure that the Kansas guards can exert. That pressure will certainly be put to a challenge against the Tigers' talented backcourt.

A couple key things to watch tonight:
1) What tempo does Kansas want to play at? Kansas showed us on Saturday night that it can thrive on a fast pace against a very talented team. However, as you have probably read Kansas has the ability to play at both a quick (talented guards & inside guys who can run) and slow pace (guards who can penetrate & multiple inside guys with developed post games). Normally I would recommend that Bill Self flip a coin and use that to decide which way to play because Kansas can win either way, but against Memphis that is a different story. While the Tigers have talented, athletic guys at every position, they are much better when the game is up-tempo and they can use their athleticism. The Tigers lack a traditional inside game and don't have many great outside shooters. Thus, Self should really thing about trying to slow the game down. It sounds crazy given how good Kansas looked against UNC (and it's easier said than done), but doing so would give the Jayhawks their best shot at winning their first title since Danny Manning and Larry Brown led them to the promised land in 1988.

2) Who will guard Derrick Rose? Kansas has 2 exceptional defensive guards in Mario Chalmers and Russell Robinson, who both did a great job harassing UNC in the first half. As you may have heard, Rose is a completely different beast. As good as the Jayhawk defenders are, I don't think they can stay with Rose if it is an uptempo game. However, if Bill Self listens to me and slows the pace of the game down, Kansas can use both in addition to Brandon Rush to try to contain Rose. I am assuming Rush will draw CDR, which is a tough assignment in itself, but he will need to help off CDR if and when Rose gets by his man.

3) Will Dorsey stay out of foul trouble? Shawn Taggert is a nice player, but he isn't really built to battle the big guys from Kansas. If Memphis is going to win the title, they will need Dorsey on the court as he is the only one with the strength to give the Tigers an edge in this match-up. Dorsey will have to win the battle (or at least limit the Jayhawks' advantage) against Darrell Arthur, Sasha Kaun, & Co. if Memphis wants to cut down the nets in San Antonio.

Opening Line: Pick 'em.
Prediction: It looks like the money in Vegas is going towards Memphis winning as the line has shifted to Memphis -2, which is a pretty big shift for a game that was originally a pick 'em less than 24 hours ago. I could see this game going either way, but in the end I think the brilliance of Rose (assuming he lays off the Gummy Bears) and solid all-around play of CDR will carry the day. Plus, as I've learned decision markets are usually pretty reliable indicators of what will happen so I'm going with the Tigers in a hard-fought battle.

rtmsf take:

We're still in considerable shock at just how dominant Kansas looked vs. North Carolina Saturday night. For the first ten minutes of that game, it appeared as if KU was playing Colorado in the Phog; NOT the de facto tournament favorite led by everybody's favorite superhero, Tyler Hansbrough. Kansas was bigger, quicker, faster, and simply wanted it more. One thing we believe was a major factor but has been left unsaid in much of the MSM was that the KU players spent the entire week hearing Roy this and Roy that and they wanted to stick it to him for leaving the program in the manner that he did (even though his departure predates all of their arrivals at KU). Of course, all of the players and certainly Bill Self will deny this forever more, but KU played that first half as if something had been stolen from them. Carolina didn't play with the same fire and intensity, and it showed (40-12). We'll leave it to the KU fans to provide this info, but we can't remember the last time a Roy Williams coached team was so thoroughly and completely dominated as they were last night. If it has happened at all, we're guessing it would have been in the 90s.

As for the other semifinal, UCLA's tendency to endure prolonged scoring droughts ultimately proved ineffective when facing a team with the caliber of Memphis' talent. We were surprised with just how thoroughly dominated Darren Collison was by Derrick Rose as well as UCLA's maddening inability to get the ball to Kevin Love in the post. Part of that was the Tiger defense making it very difficult for Love to find his preferred spots, but part of it is also attributable to poor decision-making by Mbah a Moute, Collison and others. It wouldn't ultimately have mattered, because the Bruins were an offensively flawed team and they were never going to score enough points to threaten Memphis, but it still surprised us.

So we're now left with the two least flawed teams in the tournament. It's been well documented that Memphis struggles with FTs, and it showed in their one semi-scare against Mississippi St. in the second round; it's also been commonly discussed that Bill Self teams have a tendency to choke under pressure, and KU certainly had a scare against Davidson and looked shaky at times yesterday after leading by 28 points. But these are ultimately nitpicks because both of these teams are beyond excellent and filled with NBA talent all over the floor. So which of these two squads is better and will win Monday night?

The thing that really stood out to us when we were watching the Carolina massacre was just how big and athletic Kansas looked compared to UNC (a team that itself has a reputation for size and athleticism). We think that this is the one area where Memphis can be exploited. UCLA was unable to capitalize on this advantage because only Love was a capable scorer on the blocks. Kansas can get offense underneath from not only Arthur, Jackson and Kaun off the bench, but also apparently from Cole Aldrich (who looked fantastic (8/7) in his 16 minutes yesterday). We think this is the mismatch that will have Bill Self salivating for the next 20 hours or so.

Memphis will counter with the silky smooth Derrick Rose (25/9/4 assts) and Chris Douglas-Roberts (28/4), but with the perimeter defense that we expect from the KU guards (who held the UNC perimeter players to 16-47 shooting), we think that Memphis is going to have trouble finding enough offense to match the Jayhawks. Put simply, there's absolutely no way we see that the KU defense allows 83% of Memphis' points to come from the backcourt as UCLA did, and who among the Memphis bigs will pick up the scoring slack? Dorsey? Taggart? Dozier? If that group collectively scores over 15 pts, we'll be shocked.

So despite what the decision markets and our compadre on this blog suggest, we're going with the Jayhawks to cut down the nets tomorrow night. Bill Self gets his first title, and John Calipari starts to hear the ignoble distinction of being the best active coach to not win a championship.

East: UNC absolutely dominated every game they played. Louisville made it close for a little bit in the 2nd half, but Rick Pitino had no answer for Tyler Hansbrough, who apparently developed a great outside game sometime this year as he started to hit fall-away jumpers against good defense to put the Cardinals away.

West: So we got this game wrong. Out of all the #1 seeds, UCLA appeared to be the most vulnerable during their march to San Antonio. The Bruins looked very beatable between their drubbing of Mississippi Valley State in the 1st round and their beatdown of Xavier in the Elite 8. The one constant for the Bruins during the entire tournament has been Kevin Love, who has made himself several million dollars during this tournament if he decides to leave after this season. While everybody else on the team had at least one horrible game, Love showed up every night and is the reason that UCLA is in the Final 4. This didn't hurt either.

South: After a shaky game in the 2nd round, Memphis looked like the #1 team in the country. After cruising in during the 2nd half of their win against Michigan State, Memphis dominated Texas in Houston. It seems like almost every analyst had Texas advancing out of this region. I certainly did although I was smart/fickle enough to change my mind and prediction before the Elite 8. Everybody picked on their inability to shoot free throws, but like Shaq they make them when it matters. In the Elite 8, Derrick Rose controlled the game winning the head-to-head match-up against D.J. Augustin ensuring he will be a top 2 pick in the draft if and when he declares (Beasley will be #1 unless a team really needs a PG). They will be a tough match-up for pre-tournament favorite UCLA.

Midwest: After rolling through the first 3 rounds, Kansas finally ran into a challenge in the Elite 8. Davidson put up a great fight, but in the end Kansas just had too much as they dominated the Wildcats on the inside the entire game. Stephen Curry and Brian Barr had great games for the Wildcats, who did a phenomenal job of getting back on defense to prevent Kansas from running the way they like. The Jayhawks took the lead for good on a 3 by Sherron Collins with 6:35 left. Davidson had a chance to win on the last possession, but Stephen Curry made a rare mistake for him in this tournament by taking too much time leaving Jason Richards to attempt a desperation 3 at the buzzer. Tip of the hat to Davidson and Curry who had a great game and tournament. It seemed to me that Curry ran out of gas at the end as he had a great first half, but did not have his usual second half explosion or one of his best shooting days today (4/15 from 3). Congrats to Bill Self for finally getting to the Final 4.

We'll be back later with a preview of the Final 4 along with some shots at Roy Williams going against his old school Kansas in the late game on Saturday. Check back throughout the week as we'll be making more posts.

We'll start with my team. To say I was nervous going into the game would be fairly accurate. Louisville has been playing really solid basketball lately; their closest game thus far in the tournament was an 18 point victory over Boise State in the first round. Added to the fact, Rick Pitino is nothing short of a genius, especially when it comes to tourney time. As I pointed out yesterday, I felt like UNC's keys to winning were simple. They needed to make the easy shots and take care of the basketball. In their only two losses this season, I watched them turn the ball over way too much as well as struggle to make shots from inside 8 feet. Last night's game was just what it needed to be for the Heels, as they came out strong in the first half and went into the locker room at halftime with a 12 point lead. They were controlling the tempo of the game and keeping it very fast-paced, just like they like it. They were getting rebounds and making their free throws and everything looked just gravy.

Then, the thing I said yesterday that I was afraid of happening began happening. Louisville came out in the second half and looked like almost a completely different team. I don't know what Pitino said, but the Cards began making it rain out there. They were ripping down boards, applying airtight pressure on D, cashing shots from 20+ feet, and forcing turnovers. They worked their 12 point deficit down and before I could even blink, it was a tie game. I immediately went from being comfortable to being in the I-think-I-just-shit-my-pants mode where I sit on the edge of my seat with my body clenched up until something good happens. The teams battled back and forth for the better part of the second half, but Louisville struggled with their free throws and UNC began to inch away. Hansbrough was absolutely tough in the last few minutes and hit a few really big shots, a couple of them from just inside three point range. The most impressive part of the entire game to me was the Heels' ability to close out their opponent and finish the game. They made their free throws and took good care of the ball down the stretch, which is where a lot of young teams seem to come up short.

All things considered, it was a well-played game for the Heels. They shot 53% from the field and 86% from the charity stripe, they outrebounded their opponent yet again, and they forced more turnovers than they gave up. When they play like that, they are tough to beat. Hansbrough finished with 28 points on 12-of-17 shooting and 13 boards, while four other Heels were in double figures. The only negative thing that sticks out to me was Wayne Ellington's performance. He finished with 13 points, but it came on a not-so-stellar 5-of-14 shooting performance. He took a few questionable shots, and if they end up playing Kansas next week, he is going to have to make sure he is only taking premium shots because the Jayhawks will punish a team for those misses.

In the UCLA-Xavier game, I hinged the Bruins' efforts for a victory on the performances of Kevin Love and Darren Collison, each of whom finished with 19 points as UCLA made a statistic out of yet another team. Now UCLA looks ahead to April 5th, when they will face the winner of tonight's Memphis-Texas game. I'm not going to lie, I watched some of the game, but when the Bruins started running away with it, I ended up flipping around a little bit and followed that up by dozing off on the couch for a while.

Don't hate, I was just sick of watching one lopsided game after another in this damn tournament. As good as the first two rounds were, I cannot believe how many blowouts and one-sided games we've endured since then. I'm not going to write the whole tournament off just yet though, because we're halfway there to having a Final Four with all four one-seeds for the first time ever and THAT would be worth watching. With that said, let's get into my picks for today's games.

• (2) Texas over (1) Memphis. For the third game in a row I am picking against the Tigers, and for the third time in a row, I'm probably going to end up eating my words. It all depends on which Memphis team shows up. If the Memphis team that played Michigan State shows up, Texas is in trouble. If the Memphis team that played Mississippi State shows up, Texas is going to punish them. Both sets of guards are extremely athletic, but I would go so far as to say that Memphis has the edge in that department. Chris Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose are both amazing, and usually carry most of the scoring load for the Tigers. However, this is not to take anything away from DJ Augustin or AJ Abrams. For Texas to win this game, they are going to have to keep their fouls to a minimum as they aren't especially deep. Connor Atchley and Damion James both have their work cut out for them going up against the rotating threesome of Memphis big men in Robert Dozier, Joey Dorsey, and Shawn Taggart. Texas has to do everything they can to control the boards and get as many second chance points as they can. The Memphis big men usually don't shoot the ball very much, and they are very often in foul trouble, so if that happens then Texas needs to take advantage and attack the basket. I'm sick of Memphis, I just don't like them. I can't even explain it, but they are just not enjoyable to watch in my opinion. Accompanied with that, I think my Tar Heels would have a better shot at beating Texas than they would at beating Memphis if Memphis brought their A-game. I gotta think about this kind of stuff.
• (1) Kansas over (10) Davidson. Okay, this has to be it. I've really enjoyed watching Stephen Curry and the boys make this run, but Kansas is just way too good. They are too deep - they have 4 players who average in double figures whereas Curry along with Jason Richards do the bulk of the scoring for the Wildcats. I know it's easier said than done, but Kansas simply cannot allow Curry the space he's been getting. He has a quick trigger and doesn't need a whole lot of room to bury a shot, so keeping constant pressure on him is a must. Conversely, if Davidson is going to pull off this upset, I have some keys for them that will need to be followed. First and foremost, they have to challenge shots. As I said, Kansas is deep, and everyone on the floor can contribute, so Davidson needs to get hands in as many faces as they can. Also, they need to keep the Jayhawks away from the basket and force them to shoot jump shots. I'm not implying that Kansas can't shoot the ball, they can light the place up, but they more often opt for a line to the basket and an easy two. I'm going to say this one more time: Davidson doesn't seem to me like they have enough weapons to match up with Kansas. While Curry has proven himself to be nothing short of superhuman, I don't know if he has the support in the frontcourt to keep this game close enough to where he can take over in the second half like he has done so three times so far. If Davidson gets behind early, look for them to start rushing and forcing shots. Along the lines of which team I would rather see UNC play, that has to be Davidson. I really have to imagine they would have an easier time focusing on locking down two people and letting Hansbrough go to work on whomever Davidson stacks up against him as opposed to dealing with Kansas' deep bench and their extremely talented backcourt. As I've been saying all week, though, I just want to see a good game.

Well, the first game is about to get underway, so I better post and get my ass on the couch. Have a great Sunday, and I'm sure I'll be back tomorrow to either gloat or eat my words.

One love,

10

Pitino needed to find the delicate balance between employing employing a full court press, yet not getting into an up tempo game with a deep, more athletic Carolina team. He failed to find that balance in the first half, the game was too fast for Louisville. Ty Lawson single-handedly dribbled through the Cardinal pressure, and Louisville failed to slow Carolina's potent transition offense, getting beat down the court for easy layups multiple times in the first half. Hansbrough exerted himself in the paint, not about to repeat his two point first half from Thursday night. Lawson also took advantage of the man to man half court defense with dribble penetration that left hot-shooting Danny Green open, and setup Wayne Ellington for good links.

Each time Louisville garnered consecutive baskets, trying to claw back into the game, Carolina seemed to answer with an easy layup, or would draw a quick foul. But never count out Rick Pitino coached teams. The Cardinal came out in the second half with an improved offensive game plan, running offense off David Padgett in the high post, as they successfully did during conference play, and effectively pressuring Carolina by denying Lawson the ball on out of bounds plays. One way to measure the improvement in the Louisville press from the first half to the second was how long it took Carolina to inbound the ball after made baskets - with Lawson blanketed, the Heels teetered with 5-second calls a few times before going to the second or third option, playing right into Louisville's hand.

Reverting to their aggressive 2-3 matchup zone was another important halftime adjustment by Pitino. It forced Carolina to shoot more contested jumpers, creating a few turnovers , slowing the offensive juggernaut enough to get back in the game. Louisville succeeded in finding the right tempo, patiently finding good shots on offense and pushing in transition at the right times, and found themselves back in the game thanks to the hot shooting of Jerry Smith, and inside prowess of Terrence Williams and Earl Clark, pulling even with UNC midway through the second half.
Whenever Carolina needs a big basket, they look to Hansbrough, and the three-time All American delivered, scoring the next 10 Tar Heel points pushing the lead back to four, re-energizing the team and the crowd. As Hansbrough relished the pressure, Louisville wilted. Clark turned it over on consecutive traveling calls, two of his seven turnovers. After a clutch Ty Lawson three, his first basket of the second half, Hansbrough iced it with the two perimeter shots, starting the victory march to the foul line.

To beat North Carolina you need to play a full 40 minute game, get big performances from your star players, and hit clutch shots. Despite a valiant effort, Louisville failed to execute in the first half, and disappeared late in the game, nobody stepping up to hit a big shot. Palacios and Caracter were non-factors, and while the offense fed off Padgett for a stretch in the second half, he had a subpar offensive game. In the end, Carolina had Tyler Hansbrough and Louisville did not.

So 2 tickets have been punched; the Tar Heels and Bruins will be representing the ACC and Pac-10 in the Final 4 this year in San Antonio. But 2 more slots remain: can Davidson pull another trick from their sleeve and upend the top seed Jayhawks? Can Texas stop the fast paced high flying top seeded Tigers? Here's a breakdown of the 2 games:

Sunday

South Regional Final - (1) v (2) - 2:20p, Houston

Memphis is 36-1 this season, undefeated in Conference USA, with their lone loss coming to Tennessee. Their resume speaks volumes of their ability to win big games, but still, the Tigers have been a popular pick to be the first top seed to be bounced. So, naturally in response to that criticism all they've done is win their first 3 games, 2 in convincing fashion. They had an easy time with their #16 seed opponent UT-Arlington, and a few days ago absolutely manhandled the Michigan State Spartans. Those were the convincing wins, the trouble was the 3 point escape over Mississippi State. An interesting aspect of that 3 point win was that they were slowed down and forced to play more of a halfcourt game. They obviously ended up winning, as their big stars showed up: Rose (17, 9, 7) and Douglas-Roberts (17,5,4). This team loves to run, and they love transition baskets more than anyone left in the tourney. They spread the ball around well on the break too, and can motor to a huge lead in just minutes.

As soon as the brackets were revealed on Selection Sunday, my eyes were glued to the potential match-up of Memphis/Texas in the South region. Here we are in the elite 8 and we have just that. The Longhorns had an outside shot at a top seed and deservingly so, 31-6 is no slouch of a season. But after their Big-12 conference championship game loss to Kansas, they were awarded the #2 seed and ran with it. They plowed through Austin Peay 74-54, survived a late Miami run to win 75-72, and cruised past Stanford 82-62. Although the Miami game finished with a 3 point margin, Texas was hitting on most cylinders. The real coming out party of this team was their prolific win against the Lopez twins and Stanford. Texas plays a lot of 3 guard sets, and people expected trouble on the inside against the 7 foot Lopez towers; this was not the case. Damion James was a power in the paint, scoring 18 points. As Stanford focused more defensive attention inside, the big men were able to kick it out to guards like star D.J. Augustin, who finished with 23 points and 7 assists. In that game, Texas shot a marvelous 49.2% from the floor and held the Cardinal to a mere 33.8%.

This is going to be a heck of a ball game, that's the big thing people should know: no team is going to run away with this one. These teams are too balanced, too deep, and too well coached to be blown out on either end. Texas is feeling good after toppling a good Stanford team and Memphis is still playing with a chip on their shoulder. Both teams are going to get good guard play. Augustin for Texas, Douglas-Roberts for Memphis. The teams can play inside too, with Dorsey and James. I think the edge in this game comes down to 2 things: homecourt advantage and coaching. This game is in Houston which is a virtual home game for the Longhorns. Now, you better believe Memphis will have their fans there, but the crowd will be a heavy Texas favorite which is big. As for coaching, both of these coaches have been to a final 4 before. But I like what Rick Barnes has done with this team in a tough Big-12. He's been criticized in the past for some questionable coaching decisions, but things are rolling right now, and as long as they stick to their game, things should keep rolling. I like Texas to move on to San Antonio in a close one.

Midwest Regional Final - (1) v (10) - 5:05p, Detroit

The fans and alumni of the Jayhawks had very high expectations when Bill Self was hired some years ago now, and that hasn't wavered one bit. They expect a championship every year, and so far, Self and his teams have only gotten as far as the Elite 8. This year, Kansas is stronger, faster, more experienced, and just a more complete basketball team. They finished the season a staggering 31-3 including a Big-12 championship game win over rival Texas. Arthur, Rush, Chalmers, and Jackson all averaged double figure scoring, and this team has a deep bench too. Kansas was the "worst" of the top seeds, but they've arguably played the best 3 games. They trounced Portland State by 24, topped UNLV by 19, and cruised past Villanova by 15. Like a Memphis team, this Kansas squad loves the fast break. They can score inside or kick it out and shoot the 3 with exceptional success.

Davidson was one of the last at-large bids for this year's tournament. Looking at what they've done, kudos to the panel for putting them in. Lead by shooting sensation Stephen Curry, who averaged 25 per game in the regular season, Davidson has beaten 3 champions of different sorts in their 3 games thus far. They beat the West Coast regular season champions Gonzaga in their first round game, topped regular season Big East champion Georgetown, and finally beat Big-10 regular season champion Wisconsin. Stephen Curry is averaging a mind blowing 34.8 points per game, that's good for 2nd all time in the tournament. Don't be fooled though, this team goes far beyond just Curry. One of their post players, Andrew Lovedale, doubled his regular season numbers against Wisconsin and provides great energy. This is the Cinderella team of the tournament for sure, but after beating the #2 and #3 seeds in the region, it's time to take them pretty seriously.

You'd love to give the experience edge in big games to Kansas and rightfully so. But in the regular season, Davidson played away from home at UCLA, at Duke, and at North Carolina. Despite losing those games, they came within arms reach in each contest and learned valuable lessons on how to play and beat the big boys. Obviously to win, they have to shoot the ball well. This team is based on shooting and nobody is better than Curry right now. If he gets off to a fast start it should be a good momentum builder for the Wildcats. But even if Curry is hot right from the start, I just don't think this team has enough to beat a team as deep as Kansas. Kansas sends unbelievable athletes out there and role players that contribute at just the right times (Kahn, etc). I like the Jayhawks to be the 3rd top seed to reach the final 4, mainly because of their balance, their relentless fast break attack, and overlooked but very good defense.

Enjoy the games!

photos courtsey of wacotrib.com and loserswithsocks.com

Louisville's strengths: Louisville distributes the ball very well. Four players average double digit points, and eight average more than six points per game. UNC has depth, but Louisville is more than able to match it. In particular, Teraance Williams, a big yet speedy player, could be a  nightmare of a matchup against UNC's defense. On defense, Louisville has been able to contain the best scorers of each they've faced in the tournament so far.

Louisville's weaknesses: They're the only team left in this tournament without a true point guard. Jerry Smith fits the height profile, but he's kind of awkward at the point. If Ty Lawson can take advantage of this matchup, it could be a long day for the Cardinals. The guards are also susceptible to foul trouble.

What UNC needs to do to win the game: Like in the Washington State game, Wayne Ellington and Danny Green need to get incorporated into the offense early, and the Heels need to play solid defense and outrun their opponent. Unlike the Washington State game, Hansbrough cannot be outplayed by David Padgett for the first 25 minutes.

Prediction: UNC will almost surely get their first close game of the tournament. These obliterations, as much as we would like them, cannot be expected to continue. However, I expect the Heels to get a close win in this game.

CBS, widely scrutinized for what games it chooses to broadcast and when it decides to cut away from blowouts, had nowhere to turn the past two nights. At one point last night, the New York market watched what amounted to a Kansas pick-up game that was over before the first TV timeout because Memphis, the number one seed widely picked to lose in this round, secured a 30-point halftime lead over Michigan State. Thirty points!?!? You read it right, against a Tom Izzo team in the tournament. I think the Memphis critics have some apologizing to do.

Davidson provided the only Sweet 16 surprise, by not only beating defensive minded Wisconsin, but by blowing out the Big 10 regular season and tournament champs. The bright side, as chalk continues to prevail, it sets up three heavyweight battles and one darling Cinderella story in the four Elite Eight games, making the agony of sitting through Thursday and Friday nights games worth the wait this weekend.

UCLA continues to escape the claws of defeat, riding an unbelievable run of breaks and clutch last minutes finishes dating back to the final week of the regular season and the controversial call against Stanford. If your an optimistic UCLA fan you say maybe this is our year, those with the glass of empty view feel if they keep testing fate the Bruins will eventually crash. UCLA plays stingy defense and plays most games in the 60's. Xavier can match the Bruins defensively with Senior stopper Stanley Burrell. With two strong defenses, expect a lower scoring, close affair from start to finish. The Bruins have more talent, they have experience in big tournament games with two straight Final Four appearances, to go along with unofficial home court advantage a few hours from Westwood. Most important, UCLA has the best player on the floor in Kevin Love. Xavier big man Josh Duncan has stepped up in the tournament, making for an interesting matchup in the frontcourt with Love, but expect the freshman star to lead the Bruins to San Antonio. Xavier needs to dominate the backcourt matchup to have a chance, and another no-show by Josh Shipp should also worry UCLA.

Along with Kansas, Louisville and North Carolina have been the three best teams in the tournament thus far, winning all three games in blowout fashion. You could easily mistake this game for a Final Four or even championship caliber game. A healthy Ty Lawson has Carolina's offense clicking on all cylinders. They key to this game is if Louiville's full-court press can slow down the UNC guards and take the Heels out of their offense. If Lawson and Wayne Ellington beat the press easily its points galore, but if the Cardinal force turnovers and force the guards to take bad shots they have a chance. David Padgett, Derek Caracter and the physical Louisville 2-3 zone should slow down Hansbrough, who scored only two points in the first half against Washington State before putting up 16 in the second. Carolina's weakness is defense, Louisville has a cahcne if they use the press to neutralize the Heels attack and capitalize on offense. However, the Cardinal must protect the ball better and need stronger performances from the guards - notably Edgar Sosa - on both ends of the floor. Beating a good Tennessee team with 20 turnovers is as impressive as it is unlikely, beating an elite UNC team with 20 turnovers is out of the question. Smart money is on Carolina, but expect Pitino to have Louisville right there with a chance.

We'll setup the Sunday matchups tomorrow. Here's to some good games - they can't possibly be worse than the Sweet 16, can they?

One the other hand, I was eerily correct about the other two games...

In a not-so-surprising outcome, Kansas absolutely demoralized Villanova en route to a 15 point victory. It wasn't even a fair game, and Kansas probably could have run up the score, but they didn't. Instead they resorted to throwing forty thousand alley-oops including one off the backboard to Brandon Rush which was the play of the day as far as I'm concerned. Kansas just has too much talent on the floor for most teams to match up with, and God willing, if UNC beats Louisville and has to play Kansas in the Final Four, it could be a very good game.

Watching the Texas-Stanford game was like watching the words I wrote come to life, complete with commentary from Dick Enberg and Jay Bilas. I said Texas' guards were too much to handle. I said that if Texas could somehow neutralize the ginormous Lopez brothers inside and shoot effectively from outside, it could turn into a runaway. I was right. After one of the towering twins went out for a break, Texas ripped off a 20 point run, lead by DJ Augustin, and never looked back. Augustin finished with 23 points and was followed by a few more Longhorns in double figures. If things work out the way I slated them to in my bracket, that would mean Texas would meet Carolina for the title game, and I really don't know how to gauge that matchup. UNC would have to D up more than they have all year in order to keep Augustin and AJ Adams in check, which is no easy feat. Also, they would have to keep tabs on Connor Atchley and Damion James, who is hot as of late. The thought scares the hell out of me to be quite honest.

With respect to all four games as a whole, it was a relatively uninteresting night of basketball. Wisconsin kept it close for a while, but eventually Davidson just ran away with it. The closest game of the night was the 15 point drubbing Kansas laid on Villanova, and believe me, the score makes it seem closer than it was. The only thing that stands out to most fans is the fact that there is now a 10 seed in the Elite 8.

I'm expecting better things from the next round. Tonight's games pit a couple of three seeds against a couple of one seeds. My picks are as follows:

• (1) North Carolina over (3) Louisville. Ty Lawson is really coming around since returning from injury, and Tyler Hansbrough is being Tyler Hansbrough. If the team can make the easy shots and avoid turning the ball over more than about a dozen times, I really think they'll be in good shape. On the other hand, Rick Pitino is a smart man, so Louisville could end up laying in the weeds the first half and come out firing in the second half. Since I'm a UNC fan, I can do nothing but pick my team to win and cheer accordingly.
• (1) UCLA over (3) Xavier. JK said it best the other night when he said "No one locks down like UCLA does." They do play really tight defense and I think they have way too many weapons for Xavier to keep tabs on. As fate would have it, ESPN just showed a graphic that said Xavier has never won an Elite 8 game in school history, going 0-8 thus far. Look for Kevin Love and Darren Collison to each contribute as they have been all year, and look for this one to be over early enough for you to catch the back end of whatever lame movie USA is showing tonight.

I'll be back tomorrow with reactions to tonight's games as well as my picks for the two remaining Elite 8 matchups. As for tonight, since tomorrow is the first day all week I don't have to be up at 7:30 (or 4:30, like today) I might go find some kind of an establishment that serves my favorite ale and consume one or two ... or nine. I fully expect to reach Stage 5 of Drunkenness tonight my friends. I hope you have a marvelous Saturday.

One love,

10

I Wildcats di Davidson approdano così alle Elite 8, le migliori 8 del paese, regalando ai tifosi il più grande upset stagionale.
Sono rimasto sveglio questa notte per assistere in diretta alla sfida di semifinale, e non me ne sono pentito. Dopo un primo tempo in cui il fenomeno Wildcats Stephen Curry, autore di 40 punti contro gli Zags e 30 con Georgetown, è stato limitato da una marcatura a uomo asfissiante ma ha realizzato comunque 14 punti, nei secondi 20 minuti Davidson ha preso il largo.

Merito sempre del fantastico tiratore con il numero 30, che segna più di 30 punti per la terza partita consecutiva, e regala ai suoi tifosi il sogno di trovarsi ad un passo dalle Final 4 NCAA di S.Antonio. Il risultato finale di 73-56 avrebbe potuto essere ben più largo se Davidson avesse spinto sull'acceleratore ancora di più, tenendo in campo il suo gioiello a metà secondo tempo. Ma non era necessario, era meglio un po' di riposo dato che nel weekend si gioca per la storia.

Curry sulle sue scarpe ha scritto con un pennarello nero "I can do all things". Tutta l'America lo spera in vista della sfida di Regional Final in programma domenica. Tranne (ovviamente) i suoi avversari di Kansas.

Per chi fosse interessato a seguire live le partite finali del torneo, la NCAA mette a disposizione gratis tutti gli incontri sul sito NCAAonDemand. Consiglio ai nottambuli del weekend di darci un'occhiata.

The Bruins can count on a big game from Love who finds a way to get his numbers because he knows where he needs to be. What the Bruins can't count on is Keefe coming anywhere near those numbers. They need Collison, Russell Westbrook, and Josh Shipp to really step up their games this round. If they can get this inside/outside balance, they should control this game, but they haven't looked that good since their opening round game against Mississippi Valley State. However, I'm not sure if that was more UCLA or their opponent. In either case, the Bruins haven't looked like the team that most analysts predicted would cut down the nets in San Antonio.

As noted earlier, Xavier escaped with a win in their Sweet 16 game with Joe Alexander's mistakes and some clutch 3 point shooting from B.J. Raymond. Even though Josh Duncan dominated the scoring last round, the Muskeeters are usually pretty good at spreading the ball around leading to their extremely balanced scoring averages. It will be interesting to see how they try to match up against Love, Collison, and Westbrook as that may be the key to the game.

Opening Line: UCLA -6.
Prediction: As Kevin Love said after their last game, the Bruins play has been "unacceptable". I think that on paper (and when they are on) UCLA has all the makings of a championship team with a nice mix of experience, talent, and an inside/outside game. If they're firing on all cylinders, the Bruins could blow this game wide open like they did in the early part of their Sweet 16 game. Unfortunately for Ben Howland, they have not been able to do that consistently. I think UCLA has have played with fire one too many times and tonight it will catch up with them. I'm going with Xavier in a hard-fought game earning a trip to the Final 4.

- #1 UNC vs. #3 Louisville (9:05 PM): This is probably the best match-up of the weekend on paper. Both teams are absolutely loaded and appear to be playing at their peak. The Tar Heels have been the most dominant team in the tournament so far while the Cardinals have matched them in dominance the past 2 rounds. Both teams absolutely crushed their very capable opponents (Washington State and Tennessee, respectively) on Thursday night.

The Tar Heels' calling card this season has been their phenomenal offense, but in the last round they showed Tony Bennett's Cougars that they know how to play a little D too. Offensively, Tyler Hansbrough has been solid if not spectacular although he hasn't needed to be so far in the tournament. One of the major drivers of the Tar Heels dominance in the tournament has been Ty Lawson who appears to be back near 100%. When he gets in the open court, I'm not sure if anybody can keep up with Lawson. Although those two get all the hype, I think the key to the game for UNC will be if Wayne Ellington can hit from outside. He's the only great outside shooter that Roy Williams has and his ability to hit from 3 will be very important against Rick Pitino's 2-3 zone. If he is hitting, Pitino will have a decision to make: let him bomb away or go man-to-man and risk having Psycho T go off.

Louisville is peaking at the perfect time. They made a very good Tennessee team look very bad on Thursday night although the Vols PG issues certainly contributed. They don't have quite the star power that UNC has, but Pitino's boys (David Padgett & company) are no slouches. Padgett has a lot of help offensively as the Cardinals have another half dozen guys who can get in double figures on the right night. The key for the Cardinals will be how their defense controls UNC. It will be interesting to see how their press is able to handle Lawson and how their zone matches up against Ellington's outside shooting.

Opening Line: UNC -5.5.
Prediction: I'm going with the Tar Heels tonight. They've been the best team in the country in the first 3 rounds and they weren't even clicking offensively against Washington State. Louisville has a great team and that line is ridiculously high, but I don't think Hansbrough will let the Tar Heels lose. He's had a very good college career so far, but he hasn't been able to get his team over the hump. This will be a tight game, but I think that Hansbrough will come up big down the stretch giving the Heels the slight edge. The Tar Heels were on the verge of going to the Final 4 before collapsing against Georgetown and I can't see them letting it happen again. As an added bonus, this sets up a potential national semifinal of Roy Williams versus Kansas. . .(more on that set of Elite 8 games later)

So the field of 64 has been whittled to just 8 teams; 8 teams that will be trimmed to 4 by Sunday night. Besides Davidson, a #10 seed in the midwest, there aren't a hell of a lot of surprises: all four #1 seeds, one #2 seed, and two #3 seeds. Here's how the bracket looks:

Left Side

East Region:  (1)   v  (3)

Midwest Region:  (1)   v  (10)

Right Side

South Region: (1) v  (2)

West Region:  (1)   v  (3)

So, what's going to happen over the next few days? How are the next 4 games going to shake down; will all 4 top seeds keep on going? Let's take a look at Saturdays 2 games:

Saturday

West Regional Final - (1)   v  (3) - 6:40p, Phoenix

It was a popular pick to pencil in the Bruins all the way to the final 4 on Selection Sunday, and if you did, your bracket might still be doing pretty well. But Ben Howland's crew has made you sweat through the process. It hasn't been pretty for UCLA after they beat the 16 seed Mississippi Valley State, as they were truly pushed to the limit against Texas A&M and Western Kentucky. This isn't shocking if you take a look at the Bruins over the latter part of their season; they haven't won a lot of games going away. One positive out of this is that they find ways to win, and a win is all that matters. But can they get by Xavier with 35 mediocre minutes and a strong finish?

The A-10 regular season champs got a nice seeding in the tournament, and when the 2, 4 and 5 seeds (Duke, UConn, Drake) all dropped in the 1st weekend, things looked pretty good for the Musketeers. As the message "remember Ohio State" (lost last year to the 1 seed in OT) was drilled into their minds, they took the court and avoided an upset by topping the SEC champs Georgia. Their next few games would be against opponents a bit more difficult, Purdue and West Virginia. But the experience of this team proved true, as the won both games, the latter in OT.

When you look inside, all you can think about is Kevin Love. The ridiculously good freshman averaged an impressive double double and does all the little things right. Heck, against Western Kentucky they even got career numbers from Keefe. Xavier answers with Josh Duncan, who at times, has played beyond his normal abilities. Duncan had 16 to beat Purdue and a team high 26 to top West Virginia. Lavender holds it all together for Xavier and that was best seen in the last game against WVU, where late in the game and OT he hit his first few field goals of the game; this guy is clutch. But this is third straight elite 8 for UCLA, so the edge in experience goes to them. The Bruins have been near the top all year long and know what they have to do to get the job done. The difference in this game is the bench. UCLA has some serious threats that could come out of nowhere. I like UCLA to advance in this one in yet another close game. But with the close games recently, I wouldn't be completely shocked if Xavier pulled the upset.

East Regional Final - (1)   v  (3) - 9:05p, Charlotte

Talk about popular picks, the Tar Heels were almost a consensus to be playing in San Antonio way back in the pre-season. Like UCLA, the Heels played at or near the top of the rankings all year long and ended as the number 1 team in the land. They have Tyler Hansbrough down low who along with Michael Beasley of Kansas State, are the 2 top players in the country. Now, unlike UCLA, the Heels have not had a hard time in the tournament so far; they've breezed by their opponents. Here's some scores for you: 113-74, 108-77, 68-47. Those are the final scores of the 3 games North Carolina has won so far. That's a combined margin of 91 points, and that...is pretty damn impressive. They blasted the 16 seed and then Indiana, but the most impressive win was that 68-47 blowout over Washington State. The Cougars are a stout defensive team and were a 4 seed for a reason, but UNC picked them apart. Talk about deep: Hansbrough, Elington, Ginyard, Lawson, Green...and so on, and so on.

On the Cardinals team things are run a bit differently sometimes. The big man, David Padgett, basically plays the point. He's just as impressive calling out the plays (hey, look at the results) as he is down low; he is certainly the complete package. But can he keep up with Hansbrough? The Cardinals had 4 players average double figures in points and they've had balanced scoring outside and inside so far in their 3 games in the tournament as well. They've had little contribution the last game from Sosa and it didn't seem to matter. They can run (beat Tennessee) and they can play half court. They press like crazy which can be very hard to figure out; after all they have a championship winning coach organizing the trap.

So, how does this game play out? Well, don't expect the 100+ game from the Tar Heels again. But don't expect Louisville to score from so many places on the floor again. This game is going to feature good guard play and 3 point shooting is going to be critical. But the key is inside: Hansbrough or Padgett. Can Padgett keep up with the more athletic and versatile player? Will Caracter shifting over to double Hansbrough bring about more problems? My guess is yes, and even with 2 men on him, he can still score. I like North Carolina to move on here when they build an 8-10 point lead in the 1st half and trade baskets for much of the rest of the game.

Tomorrow, breakdown of the Sunday games. Enjoy!

'Think the extraordinarily generous trustees would dip back into their pockets for alumni if Davidson makes the Final Four? :)

KU, prepare to be KO'ed!!

Well, maybe Curry is just that good. Another 33 point effort on 11-22 shooting, including 6 from behind the arc, another opponent in the dust. Curry, generously listed at 6'2" 185 lbs., does not miss when he gets an inch of daylight. Wisconsin stuck Michael Flowers, the best defender in the Big 10, on Curry to no avail. Early on Davidson got their role players involved, particularly Lovedale and Jason Richards. Wisconsin failed to control the tempo, allowing Davidson to dictate the game. Even though the game was tied at the half, 36-36 was much a much higher score than Wisconsin wants to play at. Davidson and Curry came out in the second half and blew the doors open, delivering a knock out blow when Curry nailed back to back shots, the second an open trey off transition, after a defender flew by him.

Surprisingly, Davidson defended better than Wisconsin. The Badgers got out of their game as the deficit built, not getting ball inside, forcing three pointers, and allowing the Wildcats to push the tempo. Davidson outhustled the Badgers, forcing 11 turnovers, holding them to 37% shooting for only 56 points. More surprising than the Wildcats win, was how they won, by 17 going away, possibly the surprise of the tournament thus far, slightly edging a certain second half comeback against another solid defensive team from Georgetown.

A great story out of North Carolina, the small school from the Big South rented a bus to bring students all the way to Detroit for today's game. Those students, joined by LeBron James in the student section, received a treat watching Curry. No matter where tiny Davidson ends this year's run - no 10 seed has advanced to the Final Four and only one other, Kent State in 2002, has reached the Elite Eight - Curry's tournament run will go down in NCAA lore. He seems to hit every time he gets an open look, and half the time he has a guy in his face, then throws in some highlight reel drives to the basket for extra measure. At one point in the second half, Curry had outscored Wisconsin by himself. If they hadn't already, America will adopt Davidson come Sunday, as they strive to repeat George Mason's miracle run. Be sure to tune in for the show.

I have been to Morgantown once, for business, and really enjoyed the town and the people.  To all my TeleTech colleagues out there, celebrate proudly because your home team has been playing fantastic basketball in the past couple of years and I look forward to seeing them get to the Final Four next year.

That WAS a GAME.  That is why I love college basketball.  That is what makes March Madness! On the other hand, that Tarheel game, that was not a game.  Someone just stomp on them already because they are taking the pleasure out of the viewing.

What a weekend. Not only did I have Friday and Monday off thanks to Easter, but there was a lot going on worth mentioning. Of course, the first two rounds of the NCAA tourney were on, and as exciting as always. Every year I tell myself that the current year's first two rounds are the best I've ever seen, and this year certainly stacks up with those in the recent past.

Before we get into the games and such, I think it's worth mentioning that my roommate Waldo and I have a friendly bet on whose bracket will come out better after it's all said and done. We're not doing the points system, just straight up correct picks, and as of today I am up 5 over him. He's got a little bit more light at the end of his tunnel though, as his Final Four is still in tact, while I only have three of the four remaining after my sleeper pick, UConn, put up a stinker in the first round. Yeah I know, in hindsight this was a stupid pick, but it really made too much sense to me since the Big East was pretty good this year, and the Huskies play good defense. It really didn't help things when A.J. Price left due to injury either.

The story of the weekend pertaining to basketball is certainly the rise of Davidson as this year's possible Cinderella story as they ride the coattails of sophomore phenom Stephen Curry. To my credit, I had the 10th-seeded Wildcats knocking off Gonzaga, a 7 seed, but I never would have thought they would upset Georgetown. After back to back games in which Curry absolutely went off in the second half, it makes me wonder if Wisconsin's defense is going to be able to stop him. ESPN jerkoff analyst Skip Bayless says they will, but he hasn't been right about anything since 1984, so look for that to be a good matchup. Seriously though, Curry is amazing.

I hate Duke, so I love the fact that they once again crapped out early despite being a high seed. As everyone has said over and over, they just relied too much on the three ball. However, they are going to be amazing next year because they are only losing one player to graduation (DeMarcus Nelson), Gerald Henderson is only going to get better, and somehow Coach K makes sure no one ever leaves early for the NBA. I'm pretty sure he either bakes the world's best cookies or he scares them into staying by threatening to have J.J. Redick call them five nights a week to read them his poetry.

UCLA has the easiest remaining path to the Final Four, (they play Western Kentucky on Thursday and if they win, would play the winner of the Xavier-West Virginia game) and they are still getting every call, so that looks like it's about as close to a sure thing as it can get.

My Tar Heels are looking strong on offense, but I am beginning to worry that they are allowing too many points. JK keeps saying that if someone holds them under 75 they're in trouble. We'll put a pin in that and keep it off to the side, because I let my heart do the picking this year and they're my pick to win it all. Louisville scares me way more than Tennessee to be completely honest, because Tennessee just gets way too unorganized and hectic way too often, and they always seem to turn the ball over at bad times. I'd much rather see UNC playing Tennessee to get into the Final Four because I just know they would score about 40 points off turnovers alone.

Texas' guards are too much for Stanford in my opinion, so as long as they can stay away from those two giants Stanford has lurking inside and shoot the ball effectively from about a 12 to 22 foot range, they'll come out on top there. Memphis is on the brink of a breakdown, and I'll be damned if they shouldn't have lost against Mississippi State. If Michigan State keeps the game within single digits late, Memphis' inability to shoot freethrows at a level acceptable for humans with two arms will surely haunt them. The whole time during their last game, JK and I were wondering why teams just don't put in their 11th and 12th guys off the bench to hack away and force Memphis to shoot over 40% from the charity stripe. Either way, they're screwed.

Villanova, I'm sorry, but you're also screwed. Kansas is good and the upperclassmen are hungry. Whether they end up playing Wisconsin or Davidson remains to be seen, but whomever it is, I just hope that's a good game.

I'm still standing by UNC to win it all, and you can quote me on that.

Shifting gears, us golf fans enjoyed an exciting weekend of play again, with different results than we've grown accustomed to. For the first time in seven starts for Tiger Woods, he didn't finish atop the leader board, and in all honesty, I'm a little glad. Not because I don't like Tiger - I really enjoy watching him play and he's a marvelous ambassador for the sport. It's just that if he would have kept on winning and I would have been further subjected to talk of him having a perfect season, I might have ended up choking someone. Instead, he finished in fifth place, two strokes behind winner Geoff Ogilvy, and I can breathe easy again and enjoy each week's tournament without this cloud looming over the whole thing.

JK's trip up here was a good time, as usual. This time around he actually had his ID so we were able to partake in adult-type things. We went out with the rest of the guys a couple times over the weekend, but nothing got really out of control, so I don't have any funny stories for you on that. However, everything I saw adds up with what I wrote last week about the stages of drunkenness as well as the gender differences during said drunkenness.

As I mentioned this morning, I started my new job today.  It's an international corporation in the Fortune 100 and just in case some kind of legal hulla balloo prohibits me from mentioning it directly, I'll say this:  It's a shipping company that rhymes with "red ex."  Nevertheless, the first week is all training, so I spent most of the day watching training videos and filling out paperwork.  From everything I've gathered so far, it seems like it's going to be a really good gig, so I am very excited to be working there.  On top of the fact that the pay is really good, I am actually going to have health insurance for the first time in almost four years!  Also, I signed up for the A.M. shift, so I will be done by 9:00 or 10:00 every morning, and that means I can devote my afternoons and evenings to golfing as much as I possibly want to, which is much nicer than last summer when I worked 60 hours every week and had to resort to golfing at 6:30 in the morning some days just to get my fix.  I know it's still a couple months away, but I am declaring the upcoming months the Summer of Mike.

My last few days at my old job were lame, and it took every ounce of me to get myself to show up.  As much as I would have loved skipping out on my last day especially, I just couldn't stand being the kind of guy who screws everyone over like that, even if it was only a gas station.  I consider myself to be a stand-up guy like that, plus I hate it when people don't like me.  I really feel like I left behind a legacy anyway, because for my last seven months there, I was in charge of hiring and I did what anyone in my position would do ... I hired my friends.  I hired my roommate's girlfriend, my sister, a friend, and my roommate all in the span of about five months.  It was like my own little dynasty, but it was time to move on.
It's that time of year where there will be plenty to talk about in the coming months ...  the NCAA tournament, the NBA playoffs, baseball is starting up, the NFL draft is just around the corner, golf, the summer Olympics, the election race will be heating up, and much more.  I promise not to have a five day hiatus again this week, because believe me, I missed you as much as you missed me.  You did miss me right?  Good.

One love,

10

remember my senior year at UNC. The excitement from the thoughts of graduation approaching was coupled with the enthusiasm of a proud Tarheel family supporting our Men’s Basketball team as they advanced in the NCAA Tournament. Some people may have had their doubts, but I knew that they owed me a National Championship before I graduated. It was a good game that night in St. Louis. I remember it was especially close at the end, but surely enough, we cruised past the Illini for a 75-70 victory, naming UNC the 2005 National Champions.

We’ve had an OK year so far, but I wonder how far we’ll really go. We had some close calls this season, but we held our own and took the ACC Championship. At the beginning of the tourney, the talk was all about how, as a 1 Seed, we have a pretty tough bracket. We’ve made it through Round 1, and I’m hoping we can take it all the way. Will there be another…only three years later?

GO HEELS!

UPDATE: 3/26/08

So, we made it to the Sweet 16! I’m not at all surprised, but I am excited about how much we’re blown out the last two teams, exceeding 100 points each time. I have a feeling that tomorrow’s game won’t be as much of a cakewalk, but I do think we’ll pull through. I am predicting us to at least make it to the Final Four, so I hope they don’t disappoint me. I’m really pumped for tomorrow and I’m even more excited that dook got kicked out a while back. The only thing better than (or as good as) us winning is the dookies loooosing! Even if we don’t make it into the Elite 8, we’ve still surpassed our rivals, and that’ll just have to do.

(I am, however completely confident that the HEELS can bring another one home for us)

GO TAR HEELS, GO!

The first two days of the NCAA Tournament are truly some of my favorite days of the year. Not only are there 48 hours of endless hardwood excitement but, the tourny also marks the end of winter too.

Lately, I’ve got a kick watching Bob Knight work as an analyst for ESPN. After all, it was Knight who claimed sports reporters are one rung above the prostitution profession. Although, I’m guessing he feels differently about that statement now.

Then again, that’s typical "Knight speak" coming directly from the sports world’s biggest hypocrite. And, just to make myself clear, I’m not a fan of Bob Knight the coach or Bob Knight the low-life – Knight’s label not mine - basketball analyst for ESPN.

Of course, Knight’s statistical track record as a coach is tremendous. However, I don’t respect a man who bullies his peers and preaches a do as I say and not as I do message.

Now that's leadership

Also, it’s beyond me how a leader of young men can act like a complete jackass for three decades and not only get away with such garbage behavior but, be loved for it too. Oh, I see, win 800 games and you're golden, got it.

And, make sure not to mistake Knight as a great leader either. In fact, if you want to know whether a good coach can become a great leader just compare his behavior to Knight's.

Understand that if a particular coach has choked less than three players or failed to embarrass the university on several levels he or she cannot become a great coach.

Anyway, I hope Knight soon lands another coaching job in college basketball. At least he’ll then revert back to an irrelevant jerk opposed to an old windbag on my television set.

"Hey, stop picking on me."

As far as the tourny, I’m taking North Carolina over Memphis in the championship game. Although, I wouldn’t put money on it.

Besides, not many folks correctly pick the last two teams anyway. That’s why I focus each year on trying to correctly pick 40 games.

I’ve recorded my NCAA picks since 2001 and have only correctly picked the last two teams once (2005: North Carolina vs. Illinois). Funny enough, I incorrectly picked Illinois to defeat North Carolina in the championship game!

Speaking of which, in the same time span (2001-2007) I’ve only picked the correct champion twice. In 2001 I was spot-on with Maryland and followed it up in 2002 by selecting Duke.

Conversely, since 2002 I’ve swung and missed with Kentucky (2003), Pittsburgh (2004), Illinois (2005), UConn (2006) and Ohio State (2007) all as my picks for champions.

On the other hand, I have reached my goal of picking 40 wins four times in seven years. Not to bad.

Here’s a more detailed look at my overall NCAA Tourny record since 2001.

2001 – (42-21) .666

2002 – (39-25) .609

2003 – (39-24) .619

2004 – (41-23) .640

2005 – (40-23) .630

2006 – (38-26) .593 *Thanks George Mason

2007 – (47-17) .734

Overall: (286-159) .642

As you can see, last year’s picks will be tough for me to top. Nonetheless, let’s take a look at my 2008 selections. Forty plus wins here I come!

• EAST

2^nd Round: N. Carolina, Indiana, Notre Dame, Winthrop, Oklahoma, Louisville, Butler, Tennessee

Sweet 16: N. Carolina, Notre Dame, Louisville, Tennessee

Elite 8: N. Carolina, Tennessee

Final Four: N. Carolina

• MIDWEST

2^nd Round: Kansas, UNLV, Clemson, Vandy, USC, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Georgetown

Sweet 16: Kansas, Vandy, USC, Georgetown

Elite 8: Kansas, Georgetown

Final Four: Georgetown

• SOUTH

2^nd Round: Memphis, Oregon, Michigan St, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Stanford, Miami, Texas

Sweet 16: Memphis, Pittsburgh, Stanford, Texas

Elite 8: Memphis, Stanford

Final Four: Memphis

• WEST

2^nd Round: UCLA, Texas A&M, W. Kentucky, U Conn, Purdue, Xavier, W. Virginia, Duke

Sweet 16: UCLA, U Conn, Xavier, Duke

Elite 8: UCLA, Xavier

Final Four: UCLA

• Overall Final Four

N. Carolina defeats Georgetown

Memphis wins against UCLA

• Championship April 7^th in San Antonio

North Carolina edges Memphis

• Let's hope two tourny teams give us another classic game like last year’s drama between Ohio State and Xavier. The OSU overtime victory was incredible considering how close the Buckeyes came to losing.

Link Party

• Let's not burn this bridge.

• This week I accidentally clicked the MLS button on the Yahoo sports page.

Coincidentally, all the individual soccer game stories shared the exact same headline… Soccer game turns into huge fan brawl!

• What’s the most hilarious book I’ve ever read? Answer: Steven Colbert’s I am American (and so can you). Highly recommended, indeed.

Purchase the hardback copy, it's a keeper