For more information check out dunndemocrats.com or stop by their office across from the Acoustic Cafe. They have lots of brochures and information, how to get registered to vote, free stickers & buttons and so much more.

(Stout Media is a nonpartisan student organization and its media resources are available to all interested parties and organizations targeting the student community.)

It's been a rough run for the skippers lately, with changes made in Seattle and Toronto as well as with the Mets. We've also seen a GM get pink slipped, as Bill Bavasi just lost his gig with the Mariners. These things usually happen in bunches, and I'm pretty sure the guillotine is poised to fall on another suit. All indications are that J.P. Ricciardi is not long for the Blue Jays GM position.

I felt Ricciardi was on the hot seat prior to the season starting. Let's just say he hasn't delivered on his promises in Toronto. When he first got the job, Ricciardi claimed he'd be able to produce a low-cost winner. While it's true the Blue Jays weren't bad playing small ball with the bucks, I'm not one who's going to be overly impressed with okay. I don't think it's that tough to push buttons and produce a middle of the road type team year after year. Winning is another story.

Ricciardi was afforded the opportunity to spend some serious money following the 2006 season, and he basically blew his wad on a closer with one great season in that role under his belt. And when B.J. Ryan subsequently hurt his elbow and was rendered useless in 2007 as the Blue Jays meandered their way through another uneventful year, I marked Ricciardi down as a GM on thin ice coming into this season.

It's gotten worse for Ricciardi. The Blue Jays are in the AL East cellar despite some legit quality pitching. The problem is their offense, and as Ricciardi didn't spend wisely to upgrade the attack, he has to bear the brunt of the blame.

Ricciardi's verbal attack on Adam Dunn last week has a good shot to be the final nail in the coffin. It's one thing to call out one of your own players. Going after someone else's personnel is taboo, and in this case, I would have to say it's largely unfounded. One can only assume Ricciardi reached his conclusions on Dunn not being a great lover of baseball based on conversations he's had with other people. Maybe it's true. But whether it is or it isn't, Ricciardi was way out of line with his commentary.

The hiring of Cito Gaston as the replacement for deposed manager John Gibbons would appear to be another harbinger of things to come. Word is that Gaston was not Ricciardi's choice, and if that's accurate info, it's now just a matter of time before there's a new GM calling the shots in Toronto.

SHEFF BACK WITH A BANG

Gary Sheffield finally got back into action and celebrated his return with a HR as the Tigers lost to the Cardinals Tuesday night. Sheffield is probably a good bet to get hurt again, as the body is starting to fall apart. His poor early season effort off a previous DL stint added to the fact he just hasn't been playing means Sheffield is widely available. If your fantasy team has room for a speculative pickup, here's your guy. I would not drop anyone productive to get him, but on the off chance he manages to stay healthy for even a little bit, the power spike makes tabbing Sheffield worthwhile. Just don't expect the old Sheffield to resurface, and be prepared to cast him aside when the next injury occurs.

SANCHEZ STRIKES AGAIN

Jonathan Sanchez had another terrific outing for the Giants Tuesday night and got the win over the Indians. That's seven out of eight quality starts for the southpaw since he altered his lengthy windup, and the result has been much improved command with no loss of velocity.

Sanchez has always had a live arm, but there was growing doubt he's never get enough control to become a viable force as a starter. It certainly looks as though he's figured things out. He's got great value as a fantasy pitcher as well, thanks to a terrific strikeout rate. Now that he's also becoming an ERA asset, he should be owned in all formats. On the off chance he's available in any deep leagues, get him right away.

JUST A MIRAGE

Don't get fooled by the recent surge from Twins 3B Brian Buscher. He's definitely hot right now, as Buscher is hitting .368 with an amazing 13RBI in just 38 AB since taking over as the primary hot corner starter from Mike Lamb. But there's nothing to indicate this is anything more than a hot run by a mediocre big leaguer. Buscher doesn't have much power or speed and projects as a .260 type. That renders him mostly useless as a fantasy commodity. He's a better defender than Lamb, so I suspect Buscher holds the job for the Twins, but he's not worth of rostering in anything other than deep AL-only leagues.

TROT REDUCED TO CRAWL

Trot Nixon hit fifth for the Mets Tuesday night as they were humiliated at Shea by the lowly Mariners. The result by itself was shocking enough. But beyond that, what the heck is Trot Nixon doing hitting in the #5 hole for any major league team? What, Charlie Manuel doesn't have access to Nixon's baseball card?

Nixon was a solid performer for the Red Sox in the early part of the decade. From 2001-2003, Nixon belted 79 homers and was a bona fide threat against most righty pitchers. He was never a stud vs. southpaws. But on balance, Trot was a really good RF and the fans in Boston liked his style.

That was forever ago. Nixon has been besieged by injuries since his halcyon days, and is no longer a major league caliber player. He has no power, with just three HR in more than 300 AB last season, and he's been simply terrible since getting signed by the Mets. I understand the Mets are short in the OF right now because of injuries. But there's simply no rationale for batting Nixon fifth under any circumstances.

Feel free to add your feedback and ask questions right here or address them to me at:espnradio1100@gmail.com

I have no idea what the GM's around the game are talking about, but I know the rumor mill is churning as far as the media and fans are concerned. It's late June, and that means it's time to start the buzz about which names will be moving where as the trade talks heat up. This is always more hype than substance, as the true blockbusters are few and far between these days. But it's still loads of fun to speculate on which stars could be on the move, so I may as well get in on the chatter.

The two biggest names on the burner are without question last year's AL Cy Young winner and the '07 NL runner up for MVP. C.C. Sabathia and Matt Holliday are the hottest commodities possibly up for grabs. Sabathia got off to a terrible start this season, and there was some genuine concern that the workload he accrued last season might have taken its toll. Those worries have been thoroughly dashed, as Sabathia has been rock solid over his last dozen starts. Holliday is not putting up the same power numbers he did a year ago, but all his indicators are in place, meaning it's likely just a matter of time before he starts sending balls into orbit.

Sabathia is a free agent following this season, and the Yankees will be strong favorites to spend the big bucks and sign him up. It's almost assured that he won't be back in Cleveland, although the Indians are putting up the brave front. But the fact is they are long shots to retain Sabathia's services as his contract demands will be more than the Indians have shown they're willing to spend. But I'm not sold on the fact Cleveland will deal Sabathia, even though they certainly could use an influx of top talent in their farm system. First off, we're seeing less teams willing to mortgage the future than we used to, particularly for a short term rental. That clearly limits the number of teams that will line up for a chance to deal for the big southpaw.

Holliday would be a different story as he's under contract through next season. A team that's in contention would be far less hesitant to move top prospects armed with the knowledge they'd at least get the rest of this season plus all of next year to make a pennant run with Holliday in the lineup.

As for the Indians and Rockies offering their stars, I suspect both will at least be listening. Cleveland is in contention in the AL Central right now, but they're incredibly beat up, and their remaining in the race is not an automatic at this point. As for the Rockies, the fact they made it to the World Series gives them a little more freedom to deal a big name like Holliday, as the fan fallout wouldn't be catastrophic. And if the Rockies were to use the dollars they're saving on Holliday to sign other stars to long term contracts, it would probably be a good move.

My guess is that Holliday is the more likely player to get moved this season, with the key being his contract already running through 2009. I see Sabathia being a tougher sell. The Indians won't give him away and I suspect they won't get what they're looking for in a deal for the soon to be free agent.

Xavier Nady and Jason Bay of the Pirates are going to get mentioned frequently. But with the Pirates having an actual shot to get to .500, moving both players would be a p.r. nightmare for them. This franchise needs to send a positive sign to their long suffering fans. Bay has rebounded smartly from a poor 2007 campaign, and while Nady has been terrific this year for the Bucs, he's the far more movable player as the fans won't be as disenchanted if the Pirates can reap some future rewards in a deal.

The Mariners made a ridiculous deal with the Orioles to obtain Erik Bedard. Seattle is obviously out of the pennant race already, and their farm system is atrocious. But with interim management in place in the wake of the recent firings, I'm not sure we'll see them doing anything earthshaking. However, there's no question they should explore all avenues as far as dealing Bedard is concerned. I just don't know if the temps have the power to make any major moves.

Any team that trades for Ken Griffey is nuts. Junior is one of the all-time greats, but he's a shadow of his old self at this point. Plus, he can be had for nothing at season's end as he certainly doesn't figure to be getting a new contract from the Reds. But no team is going to deal a prospect of note for Griffey, and I doubt the Reds will just give him away. However, there's another Red who could very well be moved. Adam Dunn is just about done with this franchise, and he's an ideal DH for an AL team in need of power. And that brings me full circle to the Indians. The poor performance and subsequent injury to Travis Hafner has left a gaping power hole in the Indians lineup. The AL Central is there for the taking. If I'm running the show in Cleveland, I deal for Dunn, keep Sabathia and try for another shot in the AL playoffs. The window for the Indians is starting to close anyway, so why not take a chance and go for it right now?

TWO HEADS ARE NOT BETTER THAN ONE

The Angels are sure to enjoy the luxury of having two starting caliber shortstops on the roster now that Erick Aybar is back from the DL. Maicer Izturis still figures to get a few more starts than Aybar overall, but the bottom line is that is pretty much guaranteed to significantly reduce the fantasy value of both players. Best advice? If you're in a Yahoo league where you alter the daily lineup right up to game time, try and get both players on your roster if you've presently got either Izturis or Aybar. That way you can start the one that's playing and bench the one that's not. If that's not a possibility, you're going to have to put up with some empty nights when the SS you own is sitting in the bench.

Speaking of shortstops, the Orioles have decided to dump Freddie Bynum and replace him with journeyman Alex Cintron. Cintron is a pretty good hitter, albeit sans much power or speed. But if you're stuck for a fourth MI, he's not the world's worst option and he's likely available everywhere. Whether or not Cintron can maintain the healthy BA playing every day is questionable as he's been a utility guy for too long. But I would not be surprised to see a quick spike in his numbers as he's no doubt excited about getting a chance to now play every day. Cintron might therefore work well as an emergency pickup.

Feedback and questions are encouraged. You can leave yours right here or of that option is not available, drop me a line at:espnradio1100@gmail.com

Sie können das dünnste Notebook der Welt gewinnen, dass “MacBook Air”. Der neuste Hammer mit “bahnbrechendem Design” von Apple.

"Hier Klicken"

Rank (LW)     Team          Key Players

1 (N/A)         Chargers  LaDainian Tomlinson, RB; Shawne Merriman, OLB; Antonio Cromartie, CB              

The Chargers lost 21-12 to the Patriots in the AFC Championship, but they didn't have Antonio Gates, L.T, and Phillip Rivers was playing on a torn ACL. The Chargers would have beaten the Patriots if they had been healthy. Look for the Chargers to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.

2 (N/A)         Cowboys  Tony Romo, QB; Terrell Owens, WR; DeMarcus Ware, DE/OLB

Drama in the 'Big D' this offseason, with the addition of Pacman Jones, and Romo singing to Jessica Simpson. But the Cowboys had a good draft and are going to be featured on HBO's Hard Knocks: Training Camp. Don't be surprised if the Cowboys go all the way to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

3 (N/A)         Saints       Drew Brees, QB; Deuce McAllister, RB; Jonathon Vilma, ILB

Injuries and an awful defense plagued the Saints all the way to a 7-9 season. But Deuce McAllister is expected to be healthy by Week 1, and Reggie Bush is 100% (he was about 85% throughout the season) and; via the draft, trades, and free agency, the Saints improved their defense 200%

4 (N/A)         Steelers    Ben Roethlisberger, QB; Willie Parker, RB; Troy Polamalu, SS

The Steelers' offense this year is going to be deadly. By drafting Rashard Mendenhall with the 23rd overall pick, Pittsburgh added a compliment to Willie Parker. And by drafting Limas Sweed in the second round, gave Big Ben his big target (6'5, 220 Lbs) This offense paired with the always good defense makes the Steelers a playoff lock.

5 (N/A)         Colts        Peyton Manning, QB; Dwight Freeney, DE; Bob Sanders, FS

Hey! Marvin and Dwight are back! Peyton Manning, who is always good, found out that Reggie Wayne is just as good, if not...ahem...better, than Marvin Harrison. Joseph Addai had a break-out season as well in Indy. And don't forget, Dwight Freeney got injured in the playoffs, and he's the best pass rusher in the NFL.

6 (N/A)         Eagles      Donovan McNabb, QB; Brian Westbrook, RB; Asante Samuel, CB

Donovan McNabb & Company were .500 last year, but McNabb had nobody to throw to. Now he has explosive DeSean Jackson. McNabb will greatly profit from the speedy Jackson, who was the target of streaks, slants, and screens in college, because he ran the same system in college at California. Don't forget Asante Samuel, Lito Sheppard, and Sheldon Brown makes Philly have one of the best Nickel defenses in  the NFL.

7 (N/A)         Patriots    Tom Brady, QB; Randy Moss, WR; Ellis Hobbs, CB

"Randy Moss!" - Randy Moss, in response to who was the best wide receiver on the New England team in a Super Bowl press conference. And he was right, just ask Tom Brady. But this year, the Pats aren't concerned about their offense, it's their defense. They lost Asante Samuel and Randall Gay to free agency, and their linebacking corps isn't getting younger.

8 (N/A)         Browns    Derek Anderson, QB; Jamal Lewis, RB; Shaun Rodgers, DT

Derek Anderson was THE surprise of the 2007 NFL Season (I would know, I cut him from my fantasy team at the start of the season) and the Browns reached 10-6 - but missed the playoffs - despite their defense being terrible. But the Browns are a wildcard favorite to start the year with the addition of Shaun Rodgers and other defensive players.

9 (N/A)         Jaguars    David Garrard, QB; Fred Taylor, RB; Rashean Mathis, CB

David Garrard had zero interceptions for a long while into the NFL season (then was picked in a game against Indianapolis) and Fred Taylor is no longer 'Fragile Freddy' But! Marcus Stroud was traded and the Jaguars did not have much success in the draft. But the offense looks good and the Front 7 looks good in general as well. If there was ever a time the Jags could vie for the AFC South Divisional Crown with the Colts it is NOW.

10 (N/A)       Vikings    Adrian Peterson, RB; Jared Allen, DE; Antoine Winfield, CB

Tarvaris Jackson is back and has a year of experience under his belt. The offense looks good with new additions at WR and the O-Line - which is arguably the best in the NFL - is back. The defensive line is now the best in the NFL with pro bowl DT's Kevin Williams and Pat Williams back. And the addition of last year's leader in sacks, Jared Allen (he had 15.5 in 14 games) acquired in a trade with the Chiefs makes the D-Line the best in the NFL.

11 (N/A)       Packers    Aaron Rodgers, QB; Ryan Grant, RB; Al Harris, CB

Brett Favre is gone and it's time to see what Aaron Rodgers can do. Basically the entire team is intact except for the loss of Favre. With Ryan Grant's breakout season at running back last year, the only question on offense is Rodgers. Yes, the defense is older this year, but they are one of the best with Charles Woodson and Al Harris playing Bump'N'Run on the outside.

12 (N/A)       Giants      Eli Manning, QB; Michael Strahan, DE; Kenny Phillips, FS

Champs! After upsetting the then undefeated New England Patriots, the only question is whether Michael Strahan is coming back. Plax showed he is still one of the most legitimate vertical threats in the NFL. And Brandon Jacobs showed he can run anyone over. But, Eli Manning has to show that he is going to live up to his great playoff performance.

13 (N/A)       Redskins  Clinton Portis, RB; Devin Thomas, WR; LaRon Landry, SS

The tragic death of Sean Taylor was the story of the year last year for the 'Skins. After their loss in the NFC Wildcard round to the Seahawks, Washington looks good this year. They added two rookie WR's with high expectations: The explosive Devin Thomas, and the tall Malcolm Kelly. Fred Davis, a TE out of USC, should be able to compete for the TE job. But Jason Campbell must step up and lead this team, manned by new head coach Jim Zorn.

14 (N/A)      Seahawks  Matt Hasselbeck, QB; Julian Peterson, OLB; Marcus Trufant, CB

They cut Shaun Alexander! They cut Shaun Alexander! But have no fear, Julius Jones is here! Jones is a speedy back that wasn't resigned by the Cowboys. So, Seattle picked him up and cut Shaun Alexander. The defense is a very good unit, and the Seahawks seem to be poised for another NFC West Championship.

15 (N/A)      Bucs          Jeff Garcia, QB; Carnell Williams, RB; Ronde Barber, CB

Cadillac is back. Carnell Williams is no longer injured. And the offense seems very steady with him back. They also added Warrick Dunn, so perhaps they could pair them together to make a pretty good duo. Even though Jeff Garcia isn't very happy, the offense looks good. And, with the addition of shutdown rookie corner Aqib Talib, the defense is still very good. 

16 (N/A)      Cardinals  Matt Leinart, QB; Darnell Dockett, DT; Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB

Leinart is the starter in The Desert. Or, so Ken Whisenhunt says. The offense looks great with Edgerrin James at RB, and Fitzgerald-Boldin is the best wide receiver combo in the NFL, period(.) However, a bad loss on the defense occured, as DE/OLB Calvin Pace slipped to the Jets in free agency. But, DRC, cousin of Chargers CB Antonio Cromartie, was drafted and should help out the secondary.

17 (N/A)      Panthers   Jake Delhomme, QB; Steve Smith, WR; Julius Peppers, DE

Jake Delhomme is back in the house people! After coming back from Tommy John surgery on his elbow. Jake Delhomme seems to be the pre-season starter and looks to lead a dangerous offense. DeShaun Foster was cut. This lead to powerful Jonathon Stewart being drafted. Paired with the electric DeAngelo Williams, they should be a good duo. However, on defense, Dan Morgan and Kris Jenkins are gone. And DE Mike Rucker retired.

18 (N/A)      Broncos    Jay Cutler, QB; Brandon Marshall, WR; Champ Bailey, CB

After being diagnosed with Type-1 diabetes, Jay Cutler looks to lead the Denver Broncos to an AFC West title. And it's actually a possibility. Even though Travis Henry was cut, Brandon Marshall looks outstanding at WR. And on the defensive side of the ball; Champ Bailey, John Lynch, and Elvis Dumervil seem poised to be a shutdown D.

19 (N/A)      Bills          Marshawn Lynch, RB; Lee Evans, WR; Marcus Stroud, DT

The Bills should improve to a winning record this year. They added pro-bowl DT Marcus Stroud to the defense for basically nothing in a trade with the Jaguars. They also have a great LB corps too. But with the drafting of Leodis McKelvin, the secondary and special teams unit will improve. But, questions still remain with a shaky Buffalo offense.

20 (N/A)      Raiders     Jamarcus Russell, QB; Darren McFadden, RB; The D-Line

With the arrival of many free agents, the defense looks great. Nnamdi Asomugha and DeAngelo Hall makes a great CB tandem, and the secondary further improved with the addition of Gibril Wilson. And, the D-Line also looks great. But, on the offense, questions rise about Jamarcus Russell and the WR corps. Even though D-Mac is in Oakland, he isn't expected to be the starter. Why?

21 (N/A)      Titans       Vince Young, QB; LenDale White, RB; Albert Haynesworth, DT

He who drafted Chris Johnson is an idiot. Who is Vince Young gonna toss the rock to? Alge Crumpler is good, but he can't do it by himself! They needed to get a WR. LenDale White proved he could do it on his own and the defense proved to be a stable unit. It's a shame that Vince Young didn't get a WR. One hadn't even been drafted yet! They could have had anyone they wanted.

22 (N/A)      Texans     Matt Schaub, QB; Andre Johnson, WR; Mario Williams, DE

Houston is a very bland team overall. They don't have a consistent running back, and Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson got hurt last year. But, they found a good safety valve in Owen Daniels, the TE. However, on defense, Mario Williams is a beast on passing downs, and they actually had a few pro-bowlers. But the secondary still looks like it needs help. 

23 (N/A)      Ravens     Willis McGahee, RB; Jonathon Ogden, LT; Ray Lewis, ILB

They almost beat the Patriots and they lost to the terrible, terrible Dolphins. However, their pro-bowl tackle Jonathon Ogden was hurt last year. Joe Flacco was drafted, but their is no clear-cut #1 WR. Willis McGahee did what he did in Buffalo: run all over the place. McGahee was the only source of offense the Ravens consistently had.

24 (N/A)      Jets          Chad Pennington, QB; Vernon Gholston, DE/OLB; Kerry Rhodes, SS

They got Gholston with the 6th overall pick, and TE Dustin Keller with the 30th overall pick. So, they had a 'B' draft. But, there are questions about who is the starter. And whether or not Thomas Jones can have a good year at RB. But, at WR, Coles was hurt, so we'll see how he comes back this year.

25 (N/A)      Lions        Jon Kitna, QB; Kevin Smith, RB; Ernie Sims, ILB

Brett Favre is gone, so Jon Kitna is the best QB in the NFC North. But he can only be so good because the O-Line is terrible. They allowed the most sacks in the NFL the past two years. But, Kevin Smith was a great pick in the third round. He should start. BUT! Shaun Rodgers was traded to the Browns, a dumb decision. Matt Millen is an idiot. But at least they didn't draft a WR.

26 (N/A)      Rams       Steven Jackson, RB; Torry Holt, WR; Leonard Little, DE

The Rams could have been NFC West champs, but they didn't protect Marc Bulger. The defense is a steady unit. Very quietly success has come to the St. Lou' D. But on offense last year they failed expectations miserably. They should have been a .750 team last year. Let's hope that they can improve this year.

27 (N/A)      Bengals   Carson Palmer, QB; Chad Johnson, WR; Keith Rivers, ILB/OLB

Will he stay or will he go?...to the AFL. That is the question entering training camp in Cincinnati. He, of course, is Chad Johnson. The star wideout said that if he wasn't traded, he would play in the AFL. But, the Bengals' front office stood its ground and declined trade requests for Johnson. But on the other side of the ball, it is NOT looking good. Even though the Bengals drafted linebacker Keith Rivers with the ninth pick of the draft, the overall situation on defense is bad.

28 (N/A)      49ers      Alex Smith, QB; Frank Gore, RB; Patrick Willis, ILB

Patrick Willis was the Defensive Rookie of the Year last year - he had an astonishing league leading 172 tackles in '07 - and with the addition of Kentawn Balmer, the defense looks...g-g-okay. The offense should be good if Alex Smith performs well, because with the addition of Isaac Bruce, he has a go-to guy this year. A legitimate one.

29 (N/A)      Bears      Rex Grossman, QB; Cedric Benson, RB; Brian Urlacher, ILB

Turnoversaurus Rex is the starter, so that means Lovie Smith is still an idiot. But, Lance Briggs, Tommie Harris, and Brian Urlacher are not happy at all on the defensive side of the ball with their contracts. The situation at wide receiver does not look good at all either, and we all know the Cedric Benson boat story. So, it looks like the Bears are in trouble again in the NFC North.

30 (N/A)      Falcons   Matt Ryan, QB; Michael Turner, RB; Keith Brooking, OLB

In a desperate P.R attempt to rid the Falcons of Michael Vick's namesake, Atlanta took Matt Ryan with the third overall pick in the draft. Michael Turner was the biggest RB in the free agent market and they signed him too. But they made dumb off-season trades and releases. Such as cutting Alge Crumpler, releasing Rod Coleman, and trading cornerback DeAngelo Hall. The offense looks fine, but the defense seems to be in trouble.

31 (N/A)      Chiefs     Larry Johnson, RB; Tony Gonzalez, TE; Glenn Dorsey, DT

L.J was injured for the majority of the season., so lots of pressure was on Tony Gonzalez to perform. But, if you look three years down the line, the Chiefs look pretty good. They had the best draft in the NFL this year, so they are stacked with fresh rookie talent. However, the defense is still one of the worst in the NFL and they need to fix that.

32 (N/A)      Dolphins  Ronnie Brown, RB; Jake Long, OT; Jason Taylor, DE

Jason Taylor has angered the Big Tuna by Dancing With The Stars. The Fins were the worst team in the NFL last year with just one win. But, in all fairness, Ronnie Brown was injured, Ricky Williams got injured, but that's no excuse. I still don't think the Dolphins are going to improve that much. They cut pro-bowler Zach Thomas. But they've bolstered the line and they should win four games this year.

He also asked a member of his family to lie about where he was on the night he reported his wife and the girl missing, say police.

A police statement tendered to Blacktown Local Court states that Sanjay Mehta allegedly murdered his wife Jyoti, 38, and a nine-year-old girl in Dunn Way, Blacktown.

Mehta then placed their bodies in the boot of a Toyota Camry sedan and took two other family members for a drive to Echo Point lookout at Katoomba, the document states. (link)

Say hello to the new sports phenom in Cincinnati, Jay Bruce.  This guy is an absolute monster.  In case you're not much of a Reds or MLB follower, Bruce was drafted by the Reds in 2005 with the 12th pick in the first round.  Last year he dominated the minor leagues and was named the minor league player of the year.  Before being called up last week he was hitting over .500 in Triple A with the Louisville Bats.  Even more impressive than his minor league resume has been his debut in the majors.  In his first 5 games his batting average has been .579 with an on-base percentage of over .700!  Not to mention he had a walk-off homerun in the bottom of the 10th inning today against the Braves.

Time to say goodbye to either Griffey or Dunn and welcome in the future with Jay Bruce.  I personally think the Reds will deal either Griffey or Dunn once Keppinger, Gonzalez, and Hopper make their way back off the DL.  Hopefully they will let Griffey hit his 600th homer and then trade him to Seattle.  He's not getting any younger or more productive and Seattle is more-than-willing to take his inflated salary in order to fill some seats.  With Bruce, Votto, Volquez, Cueto, and Janish all making their debut this year and with Homer Bailey and Daryl Thompson still waiting in the wings, things are looking bright in Cincinnati for a change.

Ben war nicht nur zur Saisonarbeit hier bei VARIO. In der knappen Freizeit neben dem harten Job, haben wir die Gegend erkundet, u.a. um den Mönchberg.

Wir trafen sogar einige wilde Tiere, die sich bereitwillig fotografieren ließen.
Eine friedliche Herde, die nicht zur Stampede formatierte.

Gemeinsam sind wir unschlagbar, ein eingespieltes Team, aber - und dies sei ausdrücklich betont - ich bin der Boss. Ich habe die Nase vorn!

Wir können froh sein, daß es uns so gut geht, und daß wir noch fit sind. Unserem Bekannten und gelegentlichen Weggefährten Sir Bismarck (alter preußischer Adel, mit edlem Stammbaum) wurden sämtliche Zähne gezogen, weil sie auf Eiter saßen. Tapfer geht er mit dieser Situation um, eben mit standesgemäßer Contenance.

Sir Bismarck kam schon aus dem Bach, als wir dort nach der Arbeit eine wohlverdiente Abkühlung fanden.

Dr. Ronald Goldstein served as the moderator while Drs. Jim Dunn, Ed McLaren, Marcos Vargas, Stephen Chu and Peter Pizzi, CDT, sat on the panel.

Dr. Dunn kicked off the discussion with his thoughts on meeting esthetic demands conservatively. Communication—whether it’s with patients, lab technicians, or specialists—is among the keys to making that happen.

One of the best ways to communicate is visually, Dr. Dunn said, making photos a vital part of your practice. The ability to write on the photos takes that communication to another level and increases patient understanding.

“This kind of communication is essential,” he said. “We find that patients respond when it’s interactive.”

The esthetic conversation continued with Dr. Vargas, who used his time to talk about how to create a restoration that no one else can see. He talked about how to make accurate shade selection and cavity preparation and the importance of matching replacing dentin with dentin-like material and replacing enamel with enamel-like material.

“I believe that when you do restorations, they can defy detection,” he said.

Peter Pizzi, CDT, MDT, took the stage next, where he emphasized the importance of effective communication within the dental team. He also listed quality photos as one way to achieve that communication.

Dental team members need to create a system to help make them better at what they do, he said, and he illustrated his point on the big screens with a t-shirt folding video. The woman on the screen folded that shirt in three quick movements.

“In one small, quick system they’ve accomplished something cool,” Pizzi said. “It’s systematic. How do we take that system and apply it to what we do?”

Dr. Chu offered his thoughts on predictable diagnosis and treatment of clinical crown and gingival architecture discrepancies in the aesthetic zone. It’s all about size, he said, and recognizing that it’s different with different patients.

“It’s putting the whole package together,” he said. “It’s selecting the right sized tooth. Dentists have the ability to be artists, but also can be architects.”

The presentations ended with Dr. McLaren, who talked about all-ceramic systems and how to understand and prevent failure.

Clinicians need to set standards so they know when something has failed, he said. He listed common situations that lead to failure, including porosity and processing defects.

The discussion ended with plenty of questions from the audience. One attendee asked the panel to pick one high-tech item that they consider a must have. Digital radiography, an imaging system, a digital camera and diode lasers were among the panelists’ favorite tools.

Bishop Dunn comes to England

Bishop Dunn came to England in the 1950's (c. 1955, based on our Church Golden Jubilee being held in 2005). In his own words, Bishop Dunn came to England for "two reasons... to pay down on a house and to get married". The young Sydney Alexander Dunn had fallen for Chloe Effe Thomson while in Jamaica, when he approached Mother Christine Walsh (his pastor) for Chole's hand in marriage she rebutted him with: "he hey, you have anywhere fi put her?". At the time Sydney was living in the home of his Pastor while pursuing full time ministry as the Deputy Presiding Bishop for the Shiloh Apostolic Church of JA (the islands largest Apostolic organisation at the time). Thus Bishop Dunn went and prayed asking God to get him off the island using "a ship, a fish, anything". He set sail for England telling Chloe that he was going to marry her soon.

Bishop Dunn's voyage across the Atlantic

Sydney set sail for England, with many other immigrants in search of a better life, immorality was rampant on the ship.

Men and women who were either married or engaged were using the journey as an opportunity to sleep around. Bishop Dunn ever the preacher asked the captain if he could hold a service. His first message went something like... "I suppose some of you are married, or some of you are espoused to be married, I want to tell you something if you don't stop playing around you going to come off this ship and when you get to England you going to be pregnant and can't tell your husband the baby is not for him". As Bishop preached a man piped up: "lef di people alone", but another in the crowd responded: "preacher, preach you preach". From that day no one publically acted immorally on the ship. I met once with a man who was not a Christian but happened to be on the ship with Bishop Dunn and he confirmed every word of the story, he remembered it as if it was yesterday.

On another occasion Sydney had to preach to the more distinguished guests on board including judges and high flyers. For the young Bishop this was daunting as he was not from such a background. After prayer the Lord gave him a message based on "Ephraim is a cake half turned". Bishop expounded that society was 'half baked', well done on the secular and material side but under-cooked on the spiritual side. Society had created a 'frankenstien monster' Bishop preached. At the end of the sermon a judge asked him how he managed to preach such a moving message without notes? It is the Holy Ghost that gives inspiration.

Arriving in England

When Bishop arrived in England he headed for Birmingham to lodge with a sister from Jamacia. The sister knew Chloe well and when she heard Sydney was to marry Chloe she did not charge him rent - praise God!

Bishop Sydney Dunn was staying at a house near Handsworth Park called Holly Road. This road was adjacent to Gibson Road, which would become the first church of the Bethel United Church of Jesus Christ Apostolic (UK). Other notable saints to live on Holly Road included Elder Leon Walrond, Assistant Pastor, Gibson Road, Deacon Burke, Bro & Sis Whitton and my grandparents too.

Searching for a 'Pentecostal' Church

Sydney began searching for a church in Birmingham, he found a Pentecostal Church in Hockley, the Elim Pentecostal Church. However, when Sydney enquired he found it was a 'Trinitarian Pentecostal' something he'd never heard of while in Jamaica (where Pentecostal was a synomnyn for Apostolic 'Oneness' Pentecostal). As he went out into the street outside the Hockley Pentecostal Church he began to cry out to God for somewhere to worship. It was then the Lord replied: "you are pregnant with the church, why don't you give birth?" And so, services started in Bishop's bedroom at Holly Road, attendance grew until Sydney had to take the door off the bedroom and preach standing halfway in the door of the bedroom and the landing.

It was time to start looking for a building... I shall continue the story in part 3 (soon to come...)

New general manager Walt Jocketty will be wanting a clean slate as the Reds look to re-tool their roster. Young building blocks Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez and Joey Votto have already claimed full-time roles, and it is only a matter of time before Bruce does the same. He has an array of skills that will translate immediately in fantasy, most notably 30-home run and 20-stolen base potential.

Bruce is hitting .328 with 6 home runs, 27 RBIs, 22 runs scored and 7 stolen bases in 35 games at Triple-A Louisville. He ranks among the top 10 hitters in the International League in batting average (3rd), OPS (8th, .924) and home runs (T7th), while his seven steals are tied for 14th in the league.

Bruce has just nine walks and 34 strikeouts in 131 at-bats, so he needs to work on plate discipline, pitch identification and strike zone judgment. He needs to trend up in these areas, but should make the adjustments well enough to warrant a timely call-up. If things keep going the way they are in Cincinnati, Jocketty won't be able to wait beyond June.

When the announcement is made that Bruce will be called up, competition for his services will heat up instantly. My thought is, go get him now, stash him on your bench, and wait for the call. In keeper leagues, Bruce should be obtained immediately in hopes that the Reds badly fall out of contention and/or trade Dunn or Griffey.

More thoughts ...
Dynasty Rankings breaks down the Reds' desires for better plate discipline from Bruce.

The Cincinnati Enquirer breaks down previous Reds GM Wayne Krivsky's best and worst decisions.

The Enquirer also reflects on Jocketty's decision-making, which is influenced by a "win now" mandate from Reds ownership.

Dustin Hockensmith is editor of ImaginaryDiamond.com. He can be contacted at dhockensmith[at]fantasysports101.net.

By Beverly Hicks Burch

My yellow brick road began a long time ago. I was actually a young girl. It started with a splash of color…and stories of a family “castle” in a far away place.

My baby steps on the yellow brick road “around the block” were pushed along by two different women in the beginning…and others along the way. I guess it started with my first consciousness of a quilt my maternal great-grandmother made. She was my mother’s father’s mother.

Her name was Rebecca “Becky” Shaffer McGee. She was born in Middle Tennessee…Lawrence County to be exact in 1874. Becky McGee was the loving matriarch of a large family. I don’t think there was much she couldn’t do. She cooked, gardened, raised her family, was the midwife of the county…and in her spare time she quilted. As a matter of fact, I think Becky made a quilt for each one of her grandchildren, and believe me there were several because she and my great-grandfather Daniel had ten children.

Mom’s quilt was what a lot of people call a Lone Star or a Star of Bethlehem. It was wonderful, bright splashes of red, purple and yellow with a balance of black thrown in. It was almost Amish-esque. She made one of those Lone Stars for each of my Mom’s siblings, each one in a different color palette.

In my eyes, “BoBo” as she was known to her family was a textile artist and a folk artist weaving together her colors and cloth to create magic, memories and heritage for her family. She was my muse and my inspiration and the impetus that eventually lead me to pursue quilting in 1986. That was the year I embarked on my on adventures in quilting…and I am basically a self-taught quilter, with a little TLC, tips, nudges and help along the way from guilds, fellow quilters, women in quilt shops and one special neighbor who I lived next door to in Birmingham, Lola Lovelady. Mrs. Lovelady was from “up home” as she used to say, which meant Double Springs, AL and she was what I call a “salt of the earth” person. She was my “other” grandmother and a rock for me many times. She gently and creatively did many things to foster in me a desire to sew. I was in my late 20’s or early 30’s and she was in her 60’s…and we rocked!

So, quilting became part of who I am…what I do…a passion. If you are a quilter you will know what I mean when I say I can’t resist feeling and touching the fabric when I walk into a fabric store or quilt shop. I see quilt designs in everyday items and places.

Before I became chronically ill I was very active in the quilting community in Birmingham, AL…and then IT happened. Cancer…autoimmune disorders, etc., etc. I can’t quilt like I use to, but I can admire, write on occasion, and yes, still quilt…slowly, just as often and as for as long. I just have to be the little train that could…like Dorothy on that yellow brick road on the trip home.

The other push along that yellow brick road came from my maternal grandmother Lellah McMahan McGee, my mother’s mother. Her people were from East Tennessee and her mother had been an Ogle of Sevier County, Tennessee.

Lellah McMahan McGee, ca 1986 - the castle lady

Well, if you know anything about the Ogles of Sevier County, you know there were a lot of them…they were a big clan back in the Smoky Mountains and a sleepy little burg you might have heard of…Gatlinburg.

My grandmother use to tell of hearing stories from when she was young about a family castle in far away England and about knights and Sir Ogles in the family. If that’s not fanciful enough for a little girl, what isn’t? I mean all little girls dream of being a princess, right?

My grandmother’s mother was Letha Iva Ogle McMahan, daughter of Levi Evans and Nancy Ann King Ogle. Now, if you’re from East Tennessee, and from the mountains of East Tennessee and one of the mountain clans, those surnames are beginning to ring a bell. The Ogle, Husky, Clabo/Clabaugh, King, Reagan, McMahan families are were and are prevalent in the area and I’m related in some way or the other.

Great-grandmother Iva had a sister, Mary “Polly” Ogle Creswell. It seems Great-Aunt Polly was the genealogist in the family and back in the 1940’s she put together a family history for…well, the family. She had done some research, and in those days it wasn’t as easy to do as it is now…and it can be hard now! But, now we have the internet and computers to aid our research. Great-Aunt Polly put her work together, mimeographed it, “self-published”, bound it in blue construction paper and shared it with the family.

In later years, my grandmother gave me her copy and a copy of a letter from a nephew from my grandfather’s family in Middle Tennessee and that planted the seeds for a growing interest in “who am I” “where did I come from”…and “where is that castle”? Of course I knew my Daddy’s people were mostly from East Tennessee…the Hicks, Walker, Dunn, Shields, and Henry families of Blount, Greene and Sevier Counties. Then, there was a smattering of Western North Carolina thrown in there with my grandmother’s Allman family.

So, years later down the yellow brick road of my life the two family memories collided, intertwined and became hobbies and really more…sometimes they became one. How? Well, for instance when on one of those rare instances I find or see a quilt an ancestor made. It’s one of those eureka moments! Like that Lone Star my Great-Grandmother Becky made or that scrappy quilt top I have my great-aunt made…those are priceless.

Did I ever find that castle? Well, kind of, sort of. It seems there was an Ogle “castle”. The Ogle family was originally from Northumberland, England which lies close to the border regions near Scotland. It appears the Ogle family had been in England since at least 1066. At some point the Ogle family was granted the right to fortify their land by the crown. Because of their loyalty to the king and their devotion and service to their country, the Ogle family produced seven lords and 30 knights. Additionally, Sir Robert Ogle (1380-1436) married Matilda “Maude” Grey who was the daughter of Sir Thomas Grey. Matilda was a descendant of King Edward I and a distant relative of Lady Jane Grey. It’s said that many of the US Ogle descendants in America are descendants of Sir Robert, Matilda and King Edward I.

I guess it just shows ya…you never know what or who you’ll find up in those East Tennessee mountains. I just love my yellow brick road…quilts and genealogy and castles…oh, my…

© 2008 Beverly Hicks Burch All Right Reserved.

]]> http://dunnkevin.wordpress.com/?p=11 Fri, 04 Apr 2008 00:43:30 +0000 Kevin Dunn http://dunnkevin.wordpress.com/?p=11 After only 7 days from the Rutgers Pro Day, Eric Foster comes back with a vengence.  He has been dilligently working on his recovery after being side tracked with a minor hamstring pull during the 40 only one week before.  It truly shows his comittment and dedication to the sport which he has spent his entire life developing.  He ran his short shuttle, three cone, and completed his positional drills.  The only drill he will wait until he is fully recovered for will be the 40 yard dash.  The teams that have a strong interest in him will be out to visit mid April to view this specimen.  That gives us until then to get him completely cleaned up and back to running full speed.  It is nothing short of miraculous what was witnessed today.  If it only took one week to get him back on his feet for this Pro Day... just think of what another two weeks will do for him.  Looking forward to seeing his results. 

Es ist Frühling!!!

Und woran erkennt man das? Zahlreiche Zeitschriften warten mit Fastenkuren auf:
Wie ist das bei Dir?
Gehörst du zu den Menschen, die im Frühjahr eine Diät beginnen?
Oder achtest du das ganze Jahr auf dein Gewicht?
Oder ist es dir völlig egal und du fühlst dich wohl so wie du bist?

The experts have had their say, and they certainly like the Cubs and the Brewers. As well they should. Both made great strides in 2007 to the top two spots in the Division. But the pundits are also talking the Reds and the Astros as potential first division residents, and that's where you have to ask yourself "Just what the HELL are these guys smoking?"

So, with that said, let's get to the review of the pretenders and contenders in the Division that challenge the beloved Birds on Bat:

Starting from the bottom up - THE DIVISION PRETENDERS

The Pittsburgh Pirates [2007 Record 68 - 94, 17.0 Games Back, 6th Place]

Well, the Pirates changed some faces in their front office {Guess that means no more talent pipeline to the Cubs - Jim Hendry cannot be pleased}; but, other than that, stood pat.

In the field:

• Jason Bay
• Nate McLouth
• Xavier Nady
• Jose Bautista
• Jack Wilson
• Freddy Sanchez [appears to be headed to the DL to start the season]
• Adam LaRoche
• Ronny Paulino

Starting Rotation:

• Ian Snell
• Tom Gorzelanny
• Paul Maholm
• Matt Morris
• Zack Duke

Bullpen:

• Matt Caps
• Damaso Marte
• John Grabow
• Who Knows
• Who Cares
• Meat
• Meat II

Listen, these Pirates are destined to be in the cellar again for 2008 and for the foreseeable future. Sure, they have some nice young players in the rotation, but the talent level just does not compare with the rest of the Division. Couple that with a middle of the order that does not scare anyone and Jason Bay coming off his worst year due to a balky knee, they will do well to stay under 100 losses.

The Cincinnati Reds [2007 Record 72 - 90, 13.0 Games Back, 5th Place]

In Dusty we Trusty! The new slogan for the Reds for 2008 somehow, someway, has the media "experts" salivating for good things to come in Cincy. I ask how. In my opinion, they have downgraded the team that they will put in the field, and their rotation will be a huge question mark once you get past Harang and Arroyo. It will be young and unproven, with a Fogg in the middle of it. Yes they have upgraded at closer with Cordero, but what really have they done with the rest of that awful collection? And they had better hope that Cordero finds Great American Ballpark to his liking, because his home and away splits last year were scary.

In the field:

• Adam Dunn
• Corey Patterson [tough name to type while laughing so hard]
• Ken Griffey Jr
• Edwin Encarnacion
• Alex Gonzalez/Jeff Keppinger
• Brandon Phillips
• Joey Votto/Scott Hatteberg
• David Ross/Javier Valentin

Starting Rotation:

• Aaron Harang
• Bronson Arroyo
• Josh Fogg
• Edinson Volquez
• Johnny Cueto

In the Bully:

• Francisco Cordero
• David Weathers
• Matt Belisle
• Jared Burton
• Bill Bray
• Mike Stanton
• Jeremy Affledt

3rd place? Contenders? Come on people. Does anyone think that a 38 year old Ken Griffey Jr will play anywhere near 140+ games with the type of production he had last year? Corey Patterson? How in the world do you trade Josh Hamilton and then insert that guy in his place? They are a downgraded offensive club from last year, so will the pitching pick that up?

Hard to say. Volquez and Cueto are said to have excellent stuff, however, neither one has done it for 30 starts in an MLB season. So they are a complete unknown at this time. Josh Fogg coming to Great American Ballpark? Could get ugly. Harang is a stud, a true #1, but he needs help and a lot of it if this team is even going to sniff 4th place in the division. But 4th is attainable for them this year because the Astros are heading down.

The Houston Astros [2007 Record 73 - 89, 12.0 Games Back, 4th Place]

Ed Wade is now on the scene in Houston. And the scene is playing out like a train wreck. And we will all be gawkers as we watch the Astros continue to sink in this division. Sure, they added Miguel Tejada. So? The staff in Houston will need all the defensive help they can get and Tejada is a huge defensive downgrade from Adam Everett, and his offensive will not completely offset the difference.

In the field:

• Carlos Lee
• Michael Bourn
• Hunter Pence
• Ty Wiggington
• Miguel Tejada
• Kaz Matsui/Mark Loretta
• Lance Berkman
• JR Towles/Brad Ausmus

Starting Rotation:

• Roy Oswalt
• Brandon Backe
• Wandy Rodriguez
• Shawn Chacon
• Woody Williams/Chris Sampson

In the Bully:

• Jose Valverde
• Doug Brocail
• Dave Borkowski
• Geoff Geary
• Wesley Wright
• Oscar Villarreal
• Chad Pronto

Roy Oswalt is a stud, a true #1. Here is the rub. 4 straight years of over 210 IP. He will need to stay healthy for them to be competitive. After him, the rotation could be absolutely horrid. Backe would need to recapture his form from 2004. Williams does not have much left in the tank, Rodriguez has never been consistent and Chacon is back to starting after doing creditable work out of the Pirate pen last year. Chacon's last season of starting (2006) ended with a 6+ ERA. Ugh.

And will this lineup really produce runs? Bourn is an unknown in CF, Pence fell off in the 2nd half last year after being an absolute monster before the All-Star Break, so which one will he be in 2008? Will Matsui continue to play at the level he did for Colorado in 2007, or will he backslide? What does Tejada bring to the table? Will Towles stick, or will Ausmus end up catching the majority of games, and, if that is so, another offensive downgrade. Sorry, but I do not see this team finishing above anyone other than the Pirates in this division. And, with one of the worst farm systems going after Fast Eddie trading away a bunch this off season, not much help is on the horizon. Look for John Patterson and his Blue Cross Blue Shield card to land in Houston before the season starts.

Coming soon: A look at THE DIVISION CONTENDERS.

I've been reading Stephen Dunn's New and Selected Poems 1974-1994. A book I really didn't appreciate before when I was being taught by him at Stonecoast. He keeps bringing up this idea of letting a little cruelty into a life. Even if it's just the impulse to open the windows on a dreary day. That idea of contrast, a certain harshness to sharpen the image of life. I agree with it.

I've been sleeping with the windows open a lot, I like the cold at night. Sometime soon I want to take a dip in the ocean, see if the cold can't shake something out of my bones, to play with the thrill of this squishy organic life.

Taxes come back soon. I will have much food. I won't feel so poor.

Ein Grund für den Hersteller, die Produktion auf eine entsprechend realitätsnahe und kinderfreundlichere Puppe umzustellen.

Dank der lang anhaltenden Magersucht - Trends ewig schlank sein zu müssen, um Anerkennung, oder besser gesagt Akzeptanz in der Gesellschaft zu erlangen, bin ich in ein tiefes Loch gefallen. Denn der ewige Wunsch schlank und attraktiv zu sein, endet für junge Mädchen wie mich nicht selten in der Magersucht.

Ich selbst war früher ein ziemlich dickes Mädel und wollte aus gesundheitlichen Gründen etwas an Gewicht abnehmen, um mich in meiner Haut wohler zu fühlen. Ich trieb Sport und habe mich ausgewogener bzw. bewusster ernährt. Mit den kommenden Trends aus Amerika, besonders Pro ANA, fühlte ich mich trotz meines „normalen“ Gewichtes (1,65 m auf 53 kg) immer noch zu dick und habe mein Training verschärft, wie auch meine Nahrungsaufnahme soweit eingeschränkt, dass ich täglich nur noch ein paar Äpfel aß. Ich verlor den Bezug zur Realität, prüfte mein Gewicht mehrmals täglich und zählte jede einzelne Kalorie.

Dies führte schlussendlich zu einem sechs monatigem Klinikaufenthalt, der an Schläuche und Magensonden geknüpft war. Seit vier Monaten bin ich nun draußen und „geheilt“. Dennoch wird der Wunsch des Dünnseins und der Fluch der Magersucht mich mein Leben lang begleiten.

Det er jo faktisk variasjoner i country også som i alle andre sjangre. Mye hiphop f.eks er jo mildt sagt dritt. Men det finnes noe som er veldig bra. Det samme gjelder metal (som det forresten er svæært mange undersjangre innen for de alt for mange blant de eldre som ikke er klar over det), og andre musikksjangre. Jeg tror det er bare èn sjanger jeg ikke takler (av ganske åpenbare grunner for de som kjenner meg) og det er black metal. Stygt er det også.

Tilbake til countryen. Her har jeg plukket ut det jeg anser som 10 gode musikkvideoer fra sjangeren. Er det ingen av disse dere liker, så kan jeg heller være tilbøyelig til å tro på at dere ikke liker country-musikk ^^

NB: La det være sagt at vi MÅ til USA(!) for å finne god country. Norsk country? DET kan jeg være enig i er harry. Sånt rører jeg ikke med en ildtang. (vel vitende om at jeg snakker av begrenset erfaring så jeg kan like godt ha et forenklet syn på norsk country. Men face it: Rune Rudberg, Jenny Jensen osv. Nei takk)

Taylor Swift - Our Song

Toby Keith - I Love This Bar

Tim McGraw - Shes My Kind Of Rain

Shania Twain and Willie Nelson - Forever And For Always

Dolly Parton - Jolene

Carrie Underwood - So Small

Dixie Chicks - Landslide

Johnny Cash - Ring Of Fire

Willie Nelson, Johnny Cash, Waylon Jennings and Kris Kristofferson - Higwayman

Brooks & Dunn - I Believe