So...how do we make the business case for space-based solar power?

We need to keep in mind the sage advice of Machiavelli:

One should keep in mind that there is nothing more difficult to execute, nor more dubious of success than to introduce a new system of things; for he who introduces it has all those who profit fro the old system as his enemies, and he has only lukewarm allies in all those who might profit the new system.

Click here for the "Interim Assessment!"

From the Foreword of the report itself:

Preventing resource conflicts in the face of increasing global populations and demands in the 21st century is a high priority for the Department of Defense. All solution options to these challenges should be explored, including opportunities from space.

In March 2007, the National Security Space Office’s Advanced Concepts Office presented the idea of space‐based solar power (SBSP) as a potential grand opportunity to address not only energy security, but environmental, economic, intellectual, and space security as well. First proposed in the late 1960’s, the concept was last explored in the NASA’s 1997 “Fresh Look” Study. In the decade since this last study, advances in technology and new challenges to security have warranted a current exploration of the strategic implications of SBSP. For these reasons, my office sponsored a no‐cost Phase 0 Architecture Feasibility Study of SBSP during the Spring and Summer of 2007.

Unlike traditional contracted architecture studies, the attached report was compiled through an innovative and collaborative approach that relied heavily upon voluntary internet discussions by more than 170 academic, scientific, technical, legal, and business experts around the world. I applaud the high quality of work accomplished by the team leaders and all participants who contributed in the last six months. I encourage them to continue their work in earnest as they move beyond this interim report and seek to answer the question of whether SBSP can be developed and deployed within the first half of this century to provide affordable, clean, safe, reliable, sustainable and expandable energy for mankind.

This interim assessment contains significant initial findings and recommendations that should provide pause and consideration for national and international policy makers, business leaders, and citizens alike. It appears that technological challenges are closing rapidly and the business case for creating SBSP is improving with each passing year. Still absent, however, is an appropriate catalyst to stimulate the various interested parties toward actually developing a SBSP capability. I encourage all to read this report and consider the opportunities that SBSP presents as part of a national and international debate for action on how best to preserve security for all.

//signed 9 Oct 07//
JOSEPH D. ROUGE, SES
Acting Director, National Security Space Office

To give you a basis for analysis, by 2050 the goal is to have forty or so concentrator-photovoltaic space-based solar power (SBSP) satellites in geostationary orbit, each broadcasting via microwave between 2-5 gigawatts of power to terrestrial electrical power grids, with 1-to-5 broadcast antennas that can beam power to as many locations.

This must be done using a sound business case. John Mankins calculates that this can be achieved by keeping the costs of delivery and assembly on orbit below $3,500 per kilogram--keeping the cost to customers below $0.10 per kilowatt/hour. This will drive robotic assembly and tug systems to pull these enormous structures from low orbits to geostationary. On orbit fueling stations will be required. Paul Werbos believes the best way to do this is to get launch costs down below $200 per kilogram.  But several other factors help make the business case. For example, if the price of other energy sources goes up it helps to close the business case for SBSP. Other factors include the efficiencies associated with solar collectors, energy conversion, antennas/rectennas, signal path loss, etc. Dennis Wingo and others have suggested that the first customers for space-based solar power will be international--in areas such as India and Japan where the price per kilowatt/hour is astronomical compared to the Americas or Europe. All of this goes into making the business case.

There will also be times when space-based solar power becomes priceless. When the Tsunami crushed the Pacific rim, when Hurricane Katrina flattened America's Gulf Coast, and when United Nations forces responded to the beleaguered Darfur region the value of simply broadcasting power immeidately to the relief efforts would have been priceless in assisting the salvation of countless lives and facilitated the more immediate recovery of these disaster torn regions.

Keep in mind American and Allied forces operating inside Iraq. Convoying petroleum through the streets of Iraqi cities is a large source of casualties...and the electrical power plants that convert that petroleum into electricity are under frequent attack...and the lights go out...and the people aren't happy. As I've mentioned before, one of our defense analysts calculated that the U.S. is paying between $300-to-$800 per gallon for fuel delivered to the Iraqi electric plants. Mike Hornetschek reports that 70% of all logistics movements inside Iraq is petroleum.

Inside Iraq, at this very moment--where people are dying--a supply of space-based solar power would have that priceless quality. And this is true wherever military forces and others are engaged not only in combat, but in nation building, humanitarian relief, disaster response, etc, etc, etc.

The question was posed to me today, "What does the military need." Here goes:

According to Mike Hornitschek, a military base inside the United States consumes approximately 10 megawatts of electrical power. Forward military base overseas are consuming approximately 5 megaWatts of electrical power.

I need space-based solar power satellites of the 5 megawatt class. Let's say by 2015. This capability will transform our logistics and reduce our vulnerabilities. The development of this class of space-based solar power satellite is designed to deliver that priceless quality of energy. Best of all, it can be done with current technology using current spacelift vehicles. Think about that.

But most important of all, developing the 5 megawatt class of satellite gets the ball rolling towards the 2050 vision that started this discussion. We WILL learn a great deal and we WILL find new efficiencies. We may make huge adjustments in the trade spaces as detailed in a previous discusion, and must be prepared to do so. In pressing ahead to field a 5 megawatt system, we will also be building the space industrial base and developing the rquisite spacefaring infrastructure to make the business case for the 2050 vision all the more viable.

There will likely be cities or regional utilities that will want to buy their own 5 megawatt satellite (or larger) as a backup, which will help the business case even more and give us a better look at problems that lie waiting for us as we build bigger systems.

The goal, then, for 2020 would be building/fielding a 10 megawatt system...1 gigawatt sytem by 2030...2-5 gigawatt system by 2040...on the way to fielding 40 2-5 gigawatt systems by 2050 as described above.

All the while the drive must be towards commercializing this effort at the earliest possible time. Energy must move at the speed and price established by free markets, not by government bureaucracy. To that end, I am working with Ed Morris and Mike Beavin at the Department of Commerce-Office of Space Commericalization to make this happen.

Your thoughts???

"Because of the enormous cost of addressing global warming, the energy legislation considered by Congress so far will make barely a dent in the problem, while farther-reaching climate proposals stand a remote chance of passage."

I tend to agree with Mufson.

We must not kid ourselves; nothing is a more farther-reaching climate proposal than space-based solar power. If pursued for that reason alone--especially as a big government program--I believe nothing would come of it. Not to despair. There are many more reasons to develop space-based solar power, and another way of going about it.

We must always keep in mind that space-based solar power systems confer additional independence from foreign energy sources and the entanglements they so often engender. Also, as traditional energy resources become scarcer and competition for them increase, energy provided by space-based solar power systems help reduce the incentives for energy wars.  In addition, eventually we will be able to broadcast power from space to places in dire need of energy such as sites of natural or manmade disasters, war zones, and areas of the world without much infrastructure

Space critics will point out that developing clean energy alternatives such as ground-based solar, wind, and nuclear power can be completed sooner using off-the-shelf technology, and probably deliver energy at a cheaper cost to the consumer.  I'm not going to argue with that.  I hope all nations seriously and aggressively pursue such alternatives!   But another really good reason for pursuing space-based solar power is because doing so advances the art of spacefaring.  The infrastructure required to make space-based solar power a reality--cheaper, reliable, reusable spacelift, on-orbit assembly, operating enormous space structures, etc--are capabilities in the critical technology paths to exploration and the full commercialization of space. Alternatives such as ground-based solar power, wind, and nuclear power are good and necessary, but leave us trapped on Earth.  There is a universe of untapped resources beyond.

We've all heard it..."Why go to space when all of our problems are right here on Earth?"  For starters, we want to go to space because the solutions to many of our problems can be found in space; energy, raw resources, and other places to live.  Tapping into the abundant solar energy that is ceaslessly blowing past Earth represents the easiest way to begin solving our problems here on Earth from space...and leaves in place educational, industrial, and commercial infrastructures that will make all future endeavors in space easier.

Our goal is to make space-based solar power affordable by the customer and profitable for the company who trades it.  The National Security Space Office is working with our friends in the Office of Space Commercialization in the Department of Commerce to develop space-based solar power in the commercial sector. We seek to incentivize the pathway for the commercial sector to develop space-based solar power--tapping into an industry of potentially trillions of dollars annually.

We want to leverage off of other space programs already in the pipeline to develop the infrastrucutre we require, and make prudent investments in niche technologies to help close the business case for space-based solar power.  The last thing we want is a large government program that will invariably become a political hot potato(e)! 

Your comments are most welcomed!