Among the most notable items in the report:

• Unemployment rose from 5.5% in June to 5.7% in July.
• There were 51,000 fewer jobs in July. Total job loss for 2008 so far is 463,000. That is an average of 66,000 jobs lost per month.
• The most notable losses were in construction, manufacturing and employment services. The drop for employment services indicates far fewer companies are using temporary help.
• The report also mentioned that teenagers and young adults who usually take on part-time jobs during the summer have had challenges in finding a job this year.

You can see the entire press release here.

Of course, the Darton Group team immediately leaped into the data specific to Charlotte and the finance profession.  So what did we learn?

Let's begin by defining the term "pay relatives". 

Pay relatives are a means to assess pay differences.  As defined by the BLS, "a pay relative is a calculation of pay--wages, salaries, commissions, and production bonuses--for a given metropolitan area relative to the nation as a whole".

The survey uses a base line of 100...meaning average pay nationally for all occupations and for each occupational group featured in the survey = 100.

Of 77 metro areas surveyed, the Charlotte metro area scored "102" for "All Occupations" and another "102" for the "Management, Business & Financial" occupational group.  This means that occupational pay in the Charlotte metro area was 2% above the national average for the "Management, Business & Financial" occupational group for all occupational groups combined.  

The pay relative in Charlotte for the occupational group defined as "Professional & Related" was "92" meaning that Charlotte workers in this sector earned an average of 92 cents for every dollar earned by workers nationwide.

Learn more at http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ncspay.htm.

In Part 1 of this post, we examined the facts concluding that inflation is caused by monetary debasement. In this follow up, we'll observe the reason behind why common belief is that inflation is at 3% - 5%. First, let's recap what was already covered:

What is Inflation?

Inflation is the steady, continual rise in the price of goods. It is typically measured using a “basket of goods”. In this approach, the prices of many different goods are tracked and then integrated using some sort of logical weighting calculation.

What causes inflation?

In most developed countries, money is created by a central banking system. In the US, our central banking system is that of the Federal Reserve, a private bank. Money can be created by the Federal Reserve depositing newly created money into its member banks in exchange for US bonds. This increases the amount of money in existence. Additionally, every bank in the US has the ability to lend out 7 to 11 times as many dollars as it has in deposits. This also increases the amount of money in existence. With an increased money supply, prices rise. A continually increasing money supply, aka monetary debasement, causes inflation.

What is the current rate of inflation?

This is where there is a difference of opinion. For decades, inflation has been estimated using a "basket of goods" approach. In this method the price of each of a variety of goods is tracked, a logical weighting is applied, and the output is the rate of inflation, usually annualized. Under this method we can see inflation swinging up and down through economic cycles. In the early 1980's, this data shows inflation at nearly 15% per annum. This is based on the published figures of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In the early 1990's the methodology of inflation reporting changed drastically, thus rendering the BLS "official" figures virtually useless. Unfortunately, these BLS figures continue to be used as if they were accurate.

A change in calculation method

Around 1993, Alan Greenspan argued that there was a flaw in the inflation calculation. He said that if the price of steak jumped up rapidly, then Americans would start eating hamburgers instead. For this reason, he proposed that when the price of something rises sharply we should reduce its weighting so that it isn't proportionately reflected in the output inflation figure. This is basically a "substitution adjustment". Once this change was put into practice, the BLS inflation figure no longer represented the rising costs of maintaining a standard of living... it instead represents the rising costs of maintaining a declining standard of living.

If I'm eating steak one month and hamburger the next, my quality of life has declined. To accurately examine inflation, I need to know what it will cost for me to continue eating steak. This is especially relevant when considering the rapidly rising price of gasoline. Because of the powerful energy monopoly, we don't have a realistic way to immediately substitute something else in the place of gasoline. We can't all just start putting pond water in our cars and still get around town.

Since this change in methodology, BLS has been reporting inflation at around 2% - 5%... even through the economic cycles of the past decade. For the first time ever it appears (to the naive person) that we've conquered the laws of economics. Other independent economists have been estimating inflation using the methodology prior to the substitution change. Using the same calculation methods from the 80's yields a current estimate of inflation approaching 12%. It appears that the "substitution" method consistently understated inflation by about 7%. In other words, post-1993 BLS figures have been misreported by up to 200%.

Misreporting helps to balance the budget

It's also important to note that the government's finances unquestionably have been a growing mess. With its debt rising much faster than income, it's on a one-way path to bankruptcy, and there's not a single person on the planet who can convincingly argue otherwise. Anything it can do to minimize expenses will help to defer its financial reality. A side effect of this misreporting is that social security payouts are raised using the understated BLS inflation figures. This helps to lower government expenses and lessen the deficit.

Inflation Foreshadowing

With monetary debasement (an increasing money supply) as the primary cause of inflation, one can look at the money supply itself to see which direction inflation is heading. Another problem lies herein. The Federal Reserve stopped publishing its "M3" data about the money supply in 2006. It's last M3 report indicated a money supply growing at about 8% per year. Since this decision, we've been left searching for data published by independent economists that attempts to continue to M3 growth estimation. Current figures provide M3 growth of 16% per year. This suggests that the rate of inflation is likely to continue to rise.

Ahhhh... the sky is falling!

Relax. What's more important than the national economy is your personal economy. Our economic environment offers a multitude of opportunities to profit, especially with all the rapid changes taking place today. A good starting point is the following two books:

Before Zakk and BLS,

Sounds most reckless here.

As several other sources (including the recent CareerBuilder.com forecast) have indicated, there is a continued weakness in the labor market.

Among the highlights of the report from the Commissioner:

• Payrolls shrank by 62,000 jobs in June. This is the sixth consecutive month of job losses.
• After a sharp rise in May, unemployment is unchanged this month, at 5.5%.
• Among the industries seeing the sharpest decline in jobs: construction, factory work, and temporary employment help.
• The largest increases in jobs created were in the healthcare, food services, and mining industries.
• Earnings growth has slowed considerably. The June growth rate was 0.3%, while the growth rate over the last 12 months was an average of 3.4%.

You can see the press release here. You can also visit the Bureau of Labor Statistics website here.

E ora ditemi di no alla divisa con taschino per le sigarette e lattina integrata...

http://www.yankodesign.com/index.php/2008/06/17/i-heart-this-design/

Below you'll find the 2008 BLS graduation video.  One is set to the song "Friends" by Michael W. Smith, the other is to "Time that is Left" by Mark Schultz.  If you would like the original file, please let Kory know, and he will E-mail it to you.

Enjoy!

http://www.godtube.com/view_video.php?viewkey=60fea365daf96a6754cf
http://www.godtube.com/view_video.php?viewkey=35cc56c9b6e5f99946c5

One measure of current U.S. broad money supply shows it growing at an annual rate of over 16%! However, there is considerable debate as to what money supply measure best links it with inflation. (I suspect that for developed countries, we might see credit expansion playing a much more important role in understanding the inflationary process than is currently appreciated. But that is for another post to research.)

Most people believe the CPI measures a fixed basket of goods and services over time. That is again, incorrect. It used to be the case, but not anymore. The current CPI basket of goods and services is constantly changing according to what bureaucrats think people are buying, and by numerous statistical alterations they deem ‘appropriate.'

How the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) modifies the CPI to show tame inflation
The kind of huge modifications the U.S. CPI is subjected to include the following:

• Substitution of products. Should prices rise, it is inferred people will substitute with something less expensive.
• ‘Hedonic' adjustments. If computers' performance doubles, the relevant index component is halved.
• Weighting changes of index components. If an item becomes suddenly expensive, it may receive a smaller index weighting.
• Chain-weighting. Applies to some ‘versions' of the CPI. This smoothes-out sudden price changes over many months and means indexes using this are always ‘behind-the-curve.'
• Intervention analysis/seasonal adjustments. Bureaucrats adjust index components according to historical seasonal variations, whether warranted in the current year or not. (See: The Government's Statistical Whopper of the Year, by Robert P. Murphy.)

Hence, the BLS is able to manipulate the CPI to whatever doctrine holds sway at the time. Prior to about 1980, there actually was a fixed basket of goods and services that comprised the CPI. It did a much better job of measuring inflation caused by monetary expansion. But politicians and some academics did not like this as they said it overstated the actual cost-of-living. For instance, they figured that if beef became expensive, people might buy chicken, and so on, thereby reducing living costs, and thus effectively lowering the index.

Of course, these types of changes also inferred lower living standards. But no politician, or a bureaucracy headed by a political appointee such as the BLS, would want to say that!

CPI inflation over the past year: using 1980's configuration, nearly 12%; using current methodology, 3.9%!
So around 1980 the CPI began to be massively modified and thus began the trek of divorcing it from monetary inflation. The difference in numbers between the 1980s CPI inflation measure and today's cost-of-living CPI is extraordinary! John Williams at http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data shows that for April 2008, the CPI using 1980s methodology shows inflation over the past year of close to 12%; using CPI (CPI-U) as constructed today it is just 3.9%!

There is no doubt that the ideal of trying to get a consumer price index that reflects the reality of consumer buying behaviour is a good one. But to rely on the current CPI as a means of determining U.S. inflationary pressures so as to modify its monetary policy, is, at first glance, illogical. However, there is something else going-on here.

The Federal Reserve uses current CPI to fool the world in supporting U.S. economy and artificially high bond, stock prices
The U.S. Federal Reserve often cites the CPI as being very influential in shaping its monetary policy. From the foregoing this seems to be a very strange policy. When viewed through a political lens and the need to maintain confidence in the U.S. economy though, it makes sense to try to fool the world at large that inflationary pressures are minimal within its economy.

The U.S. economic problems are so big that if the Federal Reserve and other government agencies came clean on the true rate of inflation, we would see:

• U.S. economic growth would be shown to have been negative for several years now (real GDP growth rate = nominal growth less inflation)
• Bond yields would soar
• Stock market could rise in highly inflationary environment or crash should deflation take-over
• U.S. government deficit rocket higher
• Severe economic downtown. Perhaps a depression

As consciousness rises investors everywhere will begin to understand the distinction between U.S. monetary based inflation that is in the double digits, and a highly stylized, theoretical, consumer price index that minimizes the monetary inflationary threat. Prices of everything will then be re-set accordingly.

There is huge danger ahead should the U.S. monetary and credit expansion continue unabated. The excess funds will find their way into more asset classes and lead to further big asset bubbles - and busts. Commodities anyone! Oh, what an incendiary mix!

© Ron Robins, 2008

The Brendan Leonard Show (or BLS) was a show made completely by Brendan Leonard, a nineteen year old from Winetka, IL. Everything from the camera work, sound, and editing to acting and writing was done by Brendan, his family, and his friends. Of course, Brendan and his friends had been making their own cable access show since they were fifteen. 

A big chunk of why I loved this show was the music. Every day, Brendan would have a new "Band of the Day." Some of the bands the show turned me on to were: Minus the Bear, Les Savy Fav, Ted Leo and the Pharmacists, The Magic Magicians, The Oranges Band, and Built to Spill.

The show itself was mostly sketch, with some exceptions when the cast went on trips or the two episodes that were recorded on only one take. Sadly, the show only lasted for that one summer. If you want to get just a taste of the awesomeness that was BLS have a gander at the video below.

Some might recall this video that I had up on my myspace for awhile featuring Brendan and Kevin Carlson, and I know that anyone in college will likely be able to relate.

This wasn't from the show itself, but it features Kevin Carlson, Kevin Sheehan, and Brendan from the show.

Como estava sem tempo para postar antes vai meu relato tardio desse MEGABOGA espetáculo que aconteceu no dia 05/04/2008.

O show foi excepcional, pena que o BLS tocou apenas 44 min, apesar de não ter conhecimento das músicas da banda o guitarrista/vocalista Zakk mostrou para o que veio e levantou a galera com seus solos magníficos e seu vocal agressivo.

Filme postado por zoospotlight

No show do Korn o público já ficou dividido pelos fãs da banda e pelos fãs do tradicional Rock n' Roll.

Já o show do Ozzy foi simplesmente fodástico, com suas atitudes irreverentes já começou a agitar a galera fora do palco, antes de sua entrada incentivou a galera com grito de Ole, Ole, Ole... Ozzy, Ozzy!!!

Logo em seguida colocou trechos de filmes e seriados ao qual substituia algum dos personagens da cena, onde arrancou gargalhadas do estádio.

Filme postado por Rick085

E quando começou a cantar Mr. Crowley meu coração simplesmente deu uma breve parada pela tão esperada música.

Filme postado por Rick085

Sem poder esquecer de citar a incrível atuação de Zakk novamente, guitarrista do Ozzy, que deu seu seu sangue literalmente pela banda, onde terminou a apresentação com seus dedos escorrendo sangue.

Liderado por Zakk Wylde, um dos maiores guitarristas de rock desta geração, o Black Label Society se tornou, com certeza,  mais que uma referência do que é o Heavy Metal, mas fez esse estilo musical único renascer para essa nova geração, que tinha como link para o estilo no máximo o Metallica.Não é por menos que o Black Label Society está ligado a figura do Heavy Metal, Zakk Wylde é guitarrista de nada mais e nada menos que Ozzy Osbourne, que junto com o Black Sabbath foi um do criadores deste estilo.

Recomendo Black Label Society pelos Riffs extremamente pesados, pelos harmônicos artificiais que só o Zakk sabe fazer, pelas maravilhosas Les Paul e pelo som regado a muitaaaaaa cerveja.

O BLS estará no Brasil dia 3 de abril no Arena multiuso, no Rio de Janeiro e em São Paulo 05 de abril no Palestra Itália, em um mini festival, junto com KoRn e Ozzy Osbourne. Se você correr ainda consegue algum ingresso.

Segue ai um video para que possam conhecer melhor o som da banda:

BLACK LABEL SOCIETY - BLEED FOR ME

COBERTURA ONLINE AQUI!  

Consumer spending, don’t forget, accounts for about two-thirds of gross domestic product. Naturally, all eyes are on what consumers are doing with their money. Mr. Biderman said his data, in contrast to the indicators the federal number crunchers produce, are contemporaneous and offer much more insight into what is happening in the economic here and now.

He said data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis rely on outdated figures and outmoded methods. (Both agencies have been roundly criticized for years about these problems. They defend their practices by saying that, among other things, certain data segments that they ignore are insignificant and that their models are — of necessity — focused on past data.)

Mr. Biderman’s assessment of current employment and personal income pictures, for instance, is gleaned from sources that include daily deposits of withheld income and employment taxes reported to the United States Treasury. This compares with the monthly employment analyses put out by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which are preliminary and, Mr. Biderman says, based on flawed surveys and extrapolation of historical data.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/02/business/02gret.html

An interesting trend is the 12-month change in total imports, currently at an all-time high since data collection started in 1983.

• 12-month change in hourly earnings
• 12-month change in weekly earnings
• 12-month change in hourly earnings, adjusted for inflation
• 12-month change in weekly earnings, adjusted for inflation

I see no explanation on the BLS site of why the hourly and weekly figures are different. This might just be an artifact of the way the raw data is collected.

EPI says real wage reversal persists:

First, falling real wages will likely lead to diminished consumption, reinforcing slower macroeconomic growth. Second, the reality of squeezed paychecks for most workers helps to explain the primacy of economic concerns among voters in the presidential primaries.

If I am correct, and the indexes are correct, then real incomes are declining.

BLS explains their chained index here. Actual data seem to appear only in the detailed reports, which are here.

Its also the end of my weeks annual leave, and back to uni on Monday for mandatory training of Basic Life Support and Moving and Handling, which we have to do every year, even when we qualify. We also do Breakaway training, which last year I didn't think would ever come in handy or would ever use, turns out I was very much mistaken, when I had to use it, to try and get out of a patient trying to break my thumb. No-one can ever say nursing isn't fun.

So what is going to be happening in my life, over the next few weeks, well:

• my research module exam
• my module exam
• OSCEs (this is one I'm least looking forward to, more about that in another post, nearer the time)
• submission of my case study assignment, which is completely done with 3,300 words woooooo
• re-starting lectures
• beginning of a new module; the Student Initiated Module :(

So I'm going to be busy busy busy :(