Shawn is currently training at Iowa State University.

NBC will have a field day with this.

AND ALSO: Ashley Priess Speaks Out

::UPDATE::

I read a comment on IG Forum from someone who seemed to think that Ashley quitting was " True proof that the Olympics is not the end all do all for all elite gymnasts."  Considering that Ashley cites an injured back as the problem, I don't see how this is proof of that.   

We don't see a whole lot of uninjured athletes with a good shot of going to the games just giving it up.  How many times have we seen that?  

Ashley's sudden retirement is a hot topic.  Somebody dropping out of the race a few weeks before the end is bound to attract curiosity.  Everybody loves a train wreck.  I was doing a search to see if there were any new articles when I stumbled upon the above domain.  And no, I didn't find anything new.  There is only the article from Inside Gymnastics where Mary Lee Tracy claims she had no idea this was coming.  Does MLT not know her athlete very well?  I just find it hard to believe that this young lady after having already made a world team and battled back from a back injury would not have let any hints at all drop that she might not wish to continue.  

As far as quitting goes.  Ashley Priess vs. Blaine Wilson.  I found Ashley's retirement to be shocking.  I totally respect her decision though.  I just can't muster the same feelings for Blaine Wilson.  I still think it would've been better for him to retire before the meet or afterwards.  Retiring in the middle of the meet, especially when you are not doing well is just poor form.  Then to say you retired because you didn't want to risk injury instead of being truthful.  He retired because he wasn't doing well.  It's obvious.  If he was so worried about risking getting hurt, he wouldn't have come back in the first place.  

I know some people might say, "Hey you can't read the guy's mind!"  No I can't.  But I have a lifetime of experience with lies and liars.  Push comes to shove, I can tell a pretty phat fib myself.  'I quit because I didn't accurately predict the level of competition and found myself doing poorly' is exactly the kind of thing you would try to spin into, 'Yeah.  It's just not worth getting injured.'

Shawn Johnson, 2008 U.S. Championships Prelims, Balance Beam (partial):

Standings after day one:

1. Shawn Johnson

2. Nastia Liukin

3. Chellsie Memmel

4. Samantha Peszek

5. Jana Bieger

6. Ivana Hong

To this blogger, the biggest surprise was Bieger. Peszek has looked confident in competition since the 2007 World Championships, and Memmel has been a judges' darling since becoming a senior in 2003.

Notes:

-- Liukin fell on her double front on floor exercise and scored only 14.25. She made up for it with a 17.025 on uneven bars, proving she can be scored as well as the Chinese.

-- Johnson was on everywhere, including on her Amanar vault. The only thing mentioned was that she took a big step forward on her beam landing.

-- Ashley Priess pulled out of the competition completely. She'll have a good time at Alabama next year.

-- Shayla Worley's back problems continue to plague her, and she has chosen to petition to the Olympic Trials.

-- On Memmel, from Inside Gymnastics Magazine:

Memmel, who vaulted only a Yurchenko-full on vault, is struggling with a sore quadriceps and contemplated not even competing. (Memmel’s coach-father, Andy, noted that the “powers that be” approved their easier effort on vault to keep them in the competition.)

-- Alicia Sacramone confirmed to Inside Gymnastics that she's working on an Amanar vault herself. Ooooh.

-- Darling Hill had an unfortunate 12-something disaster on beam (just like last year) and didn't compete uneven bars

-- Johnson's new floor music is called "August Rush"

-- Bridget Sloan, who competed bars and beam only, unveiled a new full-twisting double layout on bars

Claybabe6, editor of the Live.Breath.Love.Gymnastics blog has some videos on her Youtube page.

(via International Gymnast Online, Inside Gymnastics Magazine)

• Mary Lee Tracy, Ashley Priess' coach, is just as clueless as we are on why Ashley just decided to up and quit. She is disappointed (Mary Lee, I mean). A part of me is cheering Ashley on for saying "Screw You" to the System, but another part of me is crying.
• Sac is training an Amânar for the express purpose of giving Cheng Fei a "run for her money". (I bet Simona is sitting happy in Romania knowing that "her" vault will be the DECIDING FACTOR for many things this upcoming Olympics.)

Time for picture:

Bridget doing a Nistor (HA HA HA) during podium training.

I would be very jolly indeed if Stela gets that aerial to scale on beam named after her, because it would amuse me greatly.

Chellsie Memmel is reportedly ROCKING podium training, w00t. Hope she can keep it going for the actual competition. Bridget and Alicia are also looking good, Shawn and Nastia are just as usual.

And yes, Rebecca Bross broke her foot so she isn't going to repeat as junior national champion. So my prediction is: Jordyn Wieber will be 2008 Junior National Champion!!

Shawn Jonhson- Looks great. Music is not the reported Mozart mix. Few struggles with the back pike on beam, but supposedly looks phenomenal.

Nastia Liukin- Also looking really great. Performing all skills very nicely, no reports on any possible upgrades.

Alicia Sacraome- Not doing bars. Supposedly same everything on floor from last year. Beam looked solid.

Chellsie Memmel- !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Chellsie is reportedly looking GREAT. Bar set, dismounts have been STUCK, but performing high difficulty. Beam is pretty soild, a few minor problems but is reportedly solid. Vaulting a 1.5 and floor now includes the piked double arabian. The couple of people letting this information out are really excited for what great form she is in.

Shayla Worley- reports of her having struggles all over.

Samantha Peszek- A little inconsistency happening on floor. BUT she supposedly has a 1.5 layout to a double pike on floor! Bars and beam were alright.

Bridget Sloan- good bars. Only competing bars and beam

Ashely Priess- Absent from podium training. Hmmmm.

Ivana Hong- Some problems with beam and floor (two have reported that she has a double front). Great vaults, bars are ok.

I have now posted this because the reports coming out are close enough to one another that I am thinking they must be true. Oh, some pictures are up! Liukin and Pezsek's leotards were my fave. Click here.

Tuesday June 3 11:00-1:00 PM Podium Training
Tuesday June 3 5:30-8:30 PM Podium Training
Wednesday June 4 11:00-1:00 PM Podium Training
Wednesday June 4 5:30-8:30 PM Podium Training
Thursday June 5 5:00-6:45 PM Warm-up for Competition
Thursday June 5 7:00-9:30 PM Senior Competition Day 1
Friday June 6 2:00-5:00 PM Podium Training
Saturday June 7 2:00-3:15 PM Warm-up for Competition
Saturday June 7 3:30-6:00 PM Senior Competition Day 2

So as of tonight, we can start youtubing and picture searching to look for clues into what kind of awesomeness awaits us. And here is a look at what NBC will hopefully show us come Saturday 4-6pm Eastern time:

1. Chellsie Memmel. Chellsie is whom I am most emotionally invested in. She sat this competition out in 2004 with her healing broken foot. I am filled with anticipation to the nth degree on what she will showcase. An article that came out today tells us that Chellsie is working on the DTY but will showcase a 1 1/2. This is good news I think, as it shows she has at least progressed further than a full-twisting Yurchenko, and building herself up just right. But Chellsie falls into the group of "Bars must be phenomenal if I want to be an Olympian." And this is by far the event I am most excited to see her upgrades on. God I want Chellise on that team so bad. Second most important event for her I would say would be floor. We still have that 3rd spot to fill, and Chellsie is capable of showing us a very high A-score. We do also need a very strong backup in the beam lineup, and Chellsie is capable of that as well. Vault she could also be the 3rd member of the lineup, but we will have to wait until Trials to see if that is a possibility.

How Memmel will make my day: Two days of clean bar sets scoring at least a 16. She does that (and again at trials) she is on that team. Combined with her other assets of being well-known internationally and a very strong competitor who can handle the pressure. In addition, it would be sooooo awesome if she got at least 3rd in the All Around.

2. Shawn Johnson. I simply want to see her upgrades. A well landed Amanar will be great. I hope to see a tenth or two of difficulty on bars. She has been at a 6.3 and I have been hoping that she can at least get to a 6.5. Also, with the front pike on beam, she will have at least a 7.0 (unless the front pike is added as opposed to replacing front tuck). Most of all, I am excited to see her new floor routine, and am in much anticipation to see if she does the full-in in place of the double pike.

How Shawn will make my day: Winning the All Around. Period.

3. Shayla Worley: Will she be healthy? There hasn't been any news on her. She is also in the "bars need to be the best ever" club this week. Although not my favorite, I like the kid.

What Shayla will do to make my day: Go clean, do well.

4. Samantha Peszek. I like her. She can be inconsistent. She has upgrades all over the place that I am very excited to see. Samantha simply needs to be awesome for Nationals/Trials and I believe she has her spot sealed up. Even if Memmel gets the DTY in, I strongly believe Peszek's is way better; she is by far I think the 3rd best vaulter in the Nation. I think she as the strongest shot (with clean performances) to get the 3rd spot in the AA. Floor and vault matter most for her, as those are the two spots she would be needed for. Vault I just don;t see as an issue, but this new 6.5 routine on floor will be her largest asset, and it needs to go spectacularly to seal up her spot on the O-team. However, I think it will certainly solidify her position if she counts no major errors on any event.

How Sam will make my day: Super strong floor routine.

5. Alicia Sacramone- VERY MUCH anticipation and excitement to see what her upgrades are. Her new beam set is supposed to be a rockin 6.9 or 7.0 and that will be so sweet to see. But furthermore, will she upgrade on floor? If Sam and Shawn both make the team with 6.5's Alicia may not even make event finals! A 6.1 is not going to cut in Beijing at all. 6.3 is the new 6.1 internationally on floor. And of course it is always a pleasure to watch her vault.

How Alicia will make my day: Super incredibly hit beam performance. New music and superior tumbling on floor.

6. Nastia Liukin. I am most curious to see if she has upgrades. I don't ever see the DTY happening. I don't really see floor consistent either. I hope to see a spectacular and hit bar set, and that is it. I hope beam stays at a 6.6. Alicia could take her spot in finals at Beijing. I know it's mean, but I hope floor stays inconsistent to keep her out of first. Again, I have written several times why I don't like her winning AA, I would like her a lot more if she stuck to BB anf UB.

How Nastia will make my day:  Not winning the AA. (Though I wouldn't mind her winning Trials to take some pressure off Shawn). And a floor routine whose double turn leg horizontal DOESN'T get credited when it is short and not completed. ( I think at Pacific Rim she did complete it, and it was the only time I EVER saw that). NOTE: I don't mean to hate on Nastia, I just despise her as an AAer.

7. Ivana Hong- Maybe she will unveil a completely revamped super bar routine. That would be cool. As stylish as she is, she just isn't an asset to the US team. Vault doesn't do anything for her, because she just isn't needed. You need to be a two event contributer here, unless you can score 15.8 + on bars.

How Ivana will make my day: An insanely cool bar routine.

8. Jana Bieger. Upgraded floor would be a really amazing thing to see. Hypothetical: Say she has a good DTY, a floor routine of 6.4 that is clean, and a upgraded bar set of....say 6.9 (even if it is typical Bieger form). That could really buy her ticket to Beijing, don;t you think? I feel she is a little more dependable than Peszek, plus she has the reputation, triple silver medalist of 06'. That way, she would be in Peszek's VT/FX spot on the team and she would be a reasonable backup on bars. Would be interesting right?

How Bieger will make my day: Go clean, show me the upgrades. I want to see 06' form.

9. Ashley Priess. Let's not forget her. A 6.6 shown at the International Friendly Meet is not good enough but I think there are rumors about a few tenths higher. Either way, I am very curious to see what she showcases. I still strongly believe that places 1,2,3 on bars are all going to the Olympics, and even if she can't beat Memmel, she can still beat Worley and Hong.

How Priess will make my day: Dazzle us with bars.

10. Bridget Sloan- We have all heard about the 6.7 + bars routine and she again is in that club that includes, Memmel, Worley, Hong, and Priess. Plus, the girl is supposed to be rockin some new great floor routine. I can't wait, I want to see it. I heard she is not competing vault, but I don't see how that is an issue at all.

How Bridget will make my day: She can't. But NBC can by showing me her routines.

So I am pretty sure NBC is showing Day 2 live, so we will have to rely on scores and pray for youtubers to show us some routines of Day 1 on Thursday.  Regardless, my next post will be about Day 1 and what we can assume from the scores.  YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY.

VAULT:
Hong- 15.2
Priess 14.6
Sacramone 15.65
Memmel (Y 1.5) 14.6

BARS:
Hong 14.9
Priess 15.75
Memmel 14.5

BEAM:
Sacramone 16.150
Memmel 14.5
Hong 15.8
Priess 15.150

FLOOR:
Sacramone 15.250 (Watered down set)
Priess 15.150
Hong 14.75
Memmel 14.55

UPDATE:  It has been said that Priess may have scored 15.95 in the EF round.  Awesome.

Analysis:

1. Of course Alicia Sacramone, you are going to Beijing. Keep making your beam set better. We love it. Yes we will take a 15.250 as a routine that doesn't even have full difficulty yet.

2. Chellsie Memmel, time is running out!!! Please do well at Nationals, so many of us are pulling for you!

3. Raise your hand if you think Ashley Priess will be on the team. Yup. That's right. She's even a very legitimate backup on floor with a score of 15.150. Go four for four on bars through Nationals/Trials and I think you are going.

4. Ivana Hong, WHAT are your uneven bar skills? We are all dying to know. Don't see how she is an asset without putting almost another point at least on her bar score.

Off topic side note, the blogs I have posted in the links are all really fabulous. All of them are great in their own way, some of the analysis in them is spectacular. And Difficulty Plus Execution is the reason I started this blog....the writing is wonderful.

1) Ivana Hong
2) Ashley Priess
3) Chellsie Memmel
4) Mattie Larson

Notes:  Priess supposedly has a 7.0+ bars score, which as I have said before, she performs that with no errors through Nationals and Trials she will have a ticket to Beijing.  Memmel scored well on floor from what I understand, and no idea what Hong is up to.  Alicia Sacramone supposedly did real well and scored more than a 16 on beam, which I think just further secures her spot.    Shayla Worley is having back issues and left the training camp early, so perhaps her spot is in question.  And again, whoever gets second in bars for the two main deciding competitions, is going to Beijing, USA cannot afford otherwise.

Meanwhile in China, scores are soaring to new levels.  16 is the new 15 over there.  A little inflated of course, but none the less amazing.  Here are the results of China's Event Finals, courtesy of International Gymnast:

Women's Vault
1. Cheng Fei 15.812 (Double-twisting Yurchenko, 15.50/Cheng 16.125)
2. Deng Shaojie 15.45
3. Deng Linlin 14.90

Uneven Bars
1. He Kexin 17.325 (7.7 A)
2. Yang Yilin 16.725 (7.7 A)
3. Pang Panpan 16.475
4. Jiang Yuyuan 16.40
5. He Ning 16.075

Balance Beam
1. Sui Lu 16.575 (7.0 A)
2. Guo Wei 16.500 (6.9 A)
3. Zhang Nan 16.300 (6.8 A)
4. Cheng Fei 16.175 (6.8 A)
5. Li Shanshan 16.125
6. Cui Jie 16.050
7. Hu Yuhong 15.500
8. Xiao Sha 15.30

Women's Floor Exercise
1t. Sui Lu 16.200 (6.4 A)
1t. Cheng Fei 16.200 (6.5 A)
3. Yang Yilin 15.675 (6.2 A)
4. Cui Jie 15.500
5. He Ning 15.625
6t. Guo Wei 15.500
6t. Jiang Yuyuan 15.500
8. Xiao Sha 15.450

The breakdown:  The way I see it, China has one gap (if you can even call it that) on beam.

Cheng Fei, Jiang Yuyuan, Yang Yilin, and He Kexin are all going to Beijing.  And after Nationals I would include Sui Lu into the lineup for sure.  Winning beam is one thing, but to tie Cheng Fei on one of her signature events is a huge deal.   Vault, bars, and floor are covered.  (and if you notice above there is a typo in the floor scores, I am not sure what is actually right.)  For beam Sui Lu and Cheng Fei are good, but who should be in the 3rd spot?  And who for the last spot of the team?  Well, Guo Wei whoever you are, maybe you will be in.  What I would love is to bring Zhang Nan.  That would be excellent, she did get 3rd!  

Back to the US...

So again, Shawn Johnson, Nastia Liukin, and Alicia Sacramone make up 50% of the team.  And with how well Samantha Peszek did during camp, providing she continues this path throughout June meets, I think she has made her case.  She has the same A-score as Shawn on floor, which I am guessing is a 6.5.  I think Memmel, Worley, Priess, Hong, and Bridget Sloan, who supposedly has a 6.7 on bars now, are fighting for those last two spots.  Considering every other event for Team Finals is covered, 2nd and 3rd to Nastia on bars is who gets the last two golden tickets.

Now lets look at some difficulty score comparisons... (BTW check out some of the blogs I have links to, and I need to put some others in, because there are some wonderfully written and analyzing things out there)

China:

Vault- 6.5,6.5, 5.8.  = 18.8

Bars- 7.7,7.7, and 7.0 we will say, even though it may be a couple tenths higher.  = 22.4

Beam- 7.0,6.9,6.9 (I am just speculating) = 20.8

Floor- 6.5,6.4,6.4 = 19.3

Total 81.3

USA

vault- 6.5,6.3,5.8 = 18.6

bars- 7.7, 7.0,6.7 (thats being generous) = 21.4

beam- 7.0, 6.7,6.6 (though it may be a couple tenths higher) = 20.3

floor- 6.5,6.5,6.2 =19.2

Total 79.5

That's a 1.8 difference.  Now, for some of you that may go crazy at that, I am just speculating and trying to be realistic.  I will recalculate again when Nationals comes up OR if I get some hardcore A-score facts.

But as of right now, if China hits in Team Finals they WILL have the gold.  The difference in uneven bars alone is going to be around one point.  But one thing is for sure, this will be good.  I can barely wait.  It has been a looooong four years.

Word is on the street that Priess has a 7.0 A-score for bars, making her extremely valuable for the uneven bars lineup in Beijing (given that the Chinese have He, Jiang, and Yang, who are all 7.0+). Is it possible that she could take Shayla's spot away? Maybe...not, if they have to use Shayla on beam we don't know where Ashley is with that apparatus.

Dish From Recent Training Camp by addicted2gym

Shawn supposedly nailed her Amanar, and is doing the front pike on beam (making a 7.0 A-score). Her UB still have the toe-full bail on UB (which she did do at the Jesolo meet, making a 6.3 A-score). And her whip-triple twist combo got all the way around. Yesssss! Go Shawn.

Nastia stood up tumbling and whatnot, 1.5 yurchenko was performed and supposedly she had a bit of trouble with it. I also hear of ankle problems again. She did hit her bar routine.

Chellsie Memmel supposedly has around a 7.0 on bars! If that is true and she stays healthy and hits, I really think she will be on the Olympic Team. I really hope so, Chellsie is a sentimental favorite.

We will also be seeing Ashley Priess along with Memmel at this upcoming friendly meet.

Can't wait! That is all the details I have. It will be very interesting to see what Alicia Sacramone and Ivana Hong have in the upgrade department. They will join Priess and Memmel at this meet. For a lot of good interviews and Hong stating her changing of skills on the uneven bars please visit gymnast.com.

Edit to post:  I just read that Shawn actually finished her floor with the full-in and fell on it.  Don't know if it is true or not...

Youtube member Beechurst10 was kind enough to get a video of Ashley swinging bars this year at the exhibition thingy at her gym, Cincinnati Gymnastics Academy (former gym of Magnificent 7 members Jaycie Phelps and Amanda Borden):

There's been some talk that Ashley could help fill the uneven bars hole in the national team, and be of some use there.

And here is Bianca "Bonx" Flohr, doing vault:

Um, that was kind of depressing. Let's watch her beam routine instead:

If you will recall, Bonx quit elite and went to Level 10 gymnastics last year.

[EDIT: Apologies to reader Anna for deleting her comment; I accidentally pressed the wrong button.]

The Tuscaloosa News reported yesterday that Bama’s schedule is the toughest in the NCAA.

Starting with Friday’s 7:30 p.m. meet at Coleman Coliseum against 23rd-ranked Illinois, Alabama will be facing four teams ranked in the top five and 12 of the nation’s top 25 teams as ranked in the preseason coaches’ poll. An analysis by the collegegymfans.com Web site has the sixth-ranked Tide with the top strength of schedule based on a point system using the coaches’ rankings.

“We will be tested by the bested,” [Alabama coach Sarah] Patterson said with a laugh.

Alabama will face No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Florida, No. 4 UCLA, No. 5 Stanford, No. 7 Nebraska, No. 10 LSU, No. 13 Penn State, No. 14 Arkansas, No. 19 Auburn and No. 24 Kentucky in addition to Illinois. In fact, the only non-ranked team the Tide will compete against is Cal State-Fullerton on March 9 in Los Angeles, and that will be at a four-way meet that also includes UCLA and Arkansas.

The Crimson Tide, who finished an embarrassing ninth at last year's NCAA Championships, do have many things going for them this year. Senior Terin Humphrey is the reigning NCAA champion on uneven bars, and sophomore Morgan Dennis won floor exercise at last year’s NCAA Championships as well.

Alabama’s standing shouldn’t decrease in years to come either. The Tide likely won the signing lottery this year, having netted Parkette Julie Cotter as well as 2006 World Team member Ashley Priess, for its class of 2009.

Bama's last NCAA team title came in 2002.

The University of Alabama seems to have won this year's recruitment lottery.

In addition to current National team member Geralen Stack-Eaton and Parkettes teammate Julie Cotter, Sarah Patterson and company announced today that Ashley Priess will be a part of the team next fall.

Priess' sister Courtney competed for Alabama in 2005 and 2006 but is not on the roster this year. Both trained with Mary Lee Tracy at Cincinnatti Gymnastics Academy in Ohio.

Alabama must be getting hungry. They walked into the 2006 NCAA Championship pretty much guarenteed second place and blew it. Then in 2007 they lost to Utah again.

The U.S.'s Bianca Flohr is no longer listed as one of the elites on the Cincinnati Gymnastics Academy’s website, leading some to speculate that the 2008 Olympic hopeful has walked away from elite competition.

There’s been no official statement on Flohr’s official website, which hasn’t been updated since July, but the speculation is that the 16-year-old who represented Ohio's Flytz Gymnastics Center before going to CGA to train under Mary Lee Tracy has dropped back to level 10.

Flohr was fourth in the qualifying round of the 2007 American Cup, but didn’t advance to finals because of the two-per-country rule. She and CGA teammate Ashley Priess sat out of the U.S. Championships in San Jose in August nursing injuries.

No word whether Priess, who placed 10th in the all-around at the 2006 World Championships, is still gunning for Beijing. At any rate, she’s still listed as an elite on the CGA website.

So, what about Beijing?

Well, before I go around naming people right and left, let’s look at the history books. (I did some research for this, so I had better be rewarded for my pains someday. Ha.)

2001-2004 Period
2001 World Team: Bhardwaj, Heenan, Miles, Schwikert, Tidd, Yim
2002 World “Team”: Humphrey, Kupets, Postell, Sheehan
2003 World Team: Humphrey, Kupets, Memmel, Patterson, Schwikert, Vise

2004 Nationals Top 7 AA: Kupets, Patterson, Humphrey, McCool, Ishino, Tricase, Yim
2004 Trials Top 7 AA: Kupets, McCool, Patterson, Yim, Ishino, Bhardwaj, Humphrey

2004 Olympic Team: Bhardwaj, Hatch, Humphrey, Kupets, McCool, Patterson

The fun began in 2002, with Kupets and Humphrey going to Debrecen; Hatch made her comeback at 2003 Nationals, McCool and Patterson burst onto the scene in 2003, and Bhardwaj triumphantly returned in 2004, literally right before the Games.
Out of the six girls on the team, Kupets and Humphrey had the most Worlds experience in that quadrennium. Patterson and McCool came into the Olympic picture later in the time frame--Carly only had major international success in 2003, and Courtney M. in 2004. Hatch and Bhardwaj were veterans without much international exposure (Bhardwaj in 2001 Ghent, and that was it).

So that makes two internationally seasoned gymnasts (Kupets and Humphrey), two “young guns” (McCool and Patterson), and two long shots/veterans from past quadrennia that were selected for vaulting ability (Hatch and Bhardwaj, although in Mo’s case being a decent all-around gymnast didn’t hurt).

Now compare that to this quadrennium:

2005 World “Team”: Bieger, Liukin, Memmel, Sacramone
2006 World Team: Bieger, Kelley, Liukin, Memmel, Priess, Sacramone
2007 World Team: Hong, Johnson, Liukin, Peszek, Sacramone, Worley

Obviously the 2008 Nationals and Trials haven’t happened yet, so let us look at this year’s Nationals results:

2007 Nationals Top 7 AA: Johnson, Worley, Liukin, Hong, Sloan, Stack-Eaton, Peszek

In this four-year period, Nastia and Alicia have been in all three World Championships up to this point; it would seem that could make them this quadrennium’s equivalent of Kupets and Humphrey. Shawn's the new Carly.
So, assuming that the hypothetical Beijing team mirrors the Athens team, we will have two gymnasts from each of the following categories (I am not counting the gymnasts who do not appear in the lists above, e.g., Pama, Stageburg, Trani, Flohr):

Internationally seasoned: Bieger, Liukin, Memmel, Sacramone

Young Guns: Hong, Johnson, Peszek, Sloan, Worley

Long shots: Kelley, Priess, Stack-Eaton

Looking at the teams this way, one might conclude that Nastia and Alicia are basically locks for Beijing, as is Shawn (yep, she’s the new Carly!). That leaves three spots--one more "young gun", and two long shots.

Realistically, Chellsie and Jana, despite their international exposure, are long shots for the moment, with Chellsie still recovering from shoulder injury and Jana not in good shape. They do, however, have the potential to come roaring back next year. I hope. But if Natasha Kelley and/or Ashley Priess can do a really big clean-up and get their act together...both Priess and Kelley have the skills, just not the polish or the experience or consistency we see from Sac and Nast.

As for the newcomers, Ivana and Sam Peszek are also still question marks. I think Shayla has, barring injury, a better chance than Sam and Ivana do, as she can break 15 on UB and BB; Sam’s only real great contribution to the Worlds team was vault, and Ivana couldn’t break 15 in Stuttgart. (I would actually consider Sam a long shot if I didn’t know that she is capable of doing better.) Bridget is an unknown variable, because her international (and national!) exposure is so limited, although she’s certainly got talent. We shall see how she does at the Beijing Test Event.

COMING SOON: Part 2b, or, Getting Inside Martha's Head