THREE UP

Jonathan Edwards, OF, Batavia. As our friend Danup noted, Edwards has three things going for him. He's big (6-5, 230) , he's still relatively young at age 20, and his name Jonathan Edwards, which makes for all sorts of great "Sinners in the Hands of an Angry God" puns. Edwards has been putting the fear of God into the hearts of NYP League hitting as of late, hitting .372/.481/.721, and is leading the league in OPS. 50% of the balls he is putting in play are landing for hits, so the batting average probably won't last, especially considering his propensity to strikeout a lot is still intact. But he's drawing walks and hitting for tons of power. It's his third pro season, so he really needed to hit the ground running.

Daryl Jones, OF, Palm Beach. AZ did an excellent job summing up the emergence of Daryl Jones, who has come into his own this year. What caught my eye was his June-He hit .368/.440/.529 but most impressively had the same strikeout ratio as his walk ratio- 10.9% per PA. In his previous two months, Jones had fanned in nearly a quarter of his plate appearances, so that's quite an improvement. I've not allowed myself to get overly excited about Jones for the first month or so of the season because he's disappointed me in the past, but this is month # 4 we're going on and he hasn't slowed. His Peak Translated line for the season is .317/.401/.504, projecting future All Star status for Jones. At long last, tools have become game and Jones is back to being one of the premier talents in the system. One of you the other day made Curtis Granderson comparisons; I certainly could see that. There's definitely some 20-20 potential there.

Jess Todd, RHP, Springfield. Let's see, what has Jess Todd been up to lately?....Named to the USA Futures Team roster. Struck out 5 in 2 IP as the starter for the Texas League All Star game. In his last start goes 8 innings, allows 2 hits and strikes out 10. As the redbaaron once said, Jess Todd will destroy us all.

THREE DOWN

Xavier Scruggs, 1B, Batavia. After winning the MWC triple crown for UNLV and being named one of BA's Top 200 draft prospects, the X-Factor has been X-tremely disappointing so far. (That was terrible, I know). He's hitting .109/.226/.196 in 54 plate apprearances, with 18 K's.

Daniel Descalso, 2B, Palm Beach. I can't believe I called this guy the sleeper of the 2008 season. Going into the year, I thought big things could be in store for Descalso based on his college numbers and the fact the Cardinals thought enough of him to make him a 3rd rounder, but I obviously was way off base; he's got a .612 OPS for Palm Beach, and we are well into the 2nd half of the season. I have to think a demotion is not far away.

Allen Craig, 3B/LF, Springfield. He's off a month, then on a month, then off a month and now apparently on this month. After a .967 OPS in the month of May, Craig had a .654 OPS for the month of June, with just a .290 slugging %. He did crack 2 homers July 1, so maybe he's back again.

Nolan Reimold

• 1-4 HR(11) RBI---Steady season but he needs a power burst to make his next jump.

Brett Cecil

• 5 IP 5H BB K (ND)---3-0 2.68 ERA 41 K in last 10 games

Josh Rodriguez

• 2-5 2B R RBI---.341 8 RBI last 10 games

Jeremy Slayden

• 2-5 HR(11) 3 RBI 2R---.350 2 HR 10 RBI last 10 games (aging prospect needs promotion)

Josh Outman

• 3.1 IP 1H 1K (W)---Now a middle reliever?  Say bye bye to his prospect status.

Austin Jackson

• 1-5 HR( 8 ) RBI---.179 HR 2 RBI last 10 games

Alcides Escobar

• 3-6 RBI---.325 7 HR 52 RBI 21 SB (bat has caught up with his glove skills)

Mat Gamel

• 3-5 2B 2 RBI BB---.465 20 Hits HR 10 RBI last 10 games (212 Total Bases already!!!)

Cole Gillespie

• 3-4 2 2B 2R 2 RBI BB SB(9)---Overlooked former OSU Beaver has 28 doubles and 10 HR

Mike Wilson

• 2-4 HR(19) 2 RBI BB SB(5)---.272 56 RBI .925 OPS

Kala Kaaihue

• 2-3 2 HR(10) 3 RBI 2R BB---Nice performance for Kila's brother

Tommy Hanson

• 3 IP 5H ER 3BB 2K---So so performance after no-hit gem

Chris Johnson

• 1-3 HR(10) 3 RBI BB---.331 47 RBI .534 SLG (Astros' 3B of the future coming to a product near you)

Daniel Cortes

• 5 IP 5H 3ER 2BB 5K (W)---Only blemish on this outing was a 3-Run HR (3-3 now at AA)

Dexter Fowler

• 3-6 RBI---Continues hot hitting (.341 11 RBI last 10 games)

Chad Huffman

• 2-3 2B RBI---.299 6 HR 41 RBI (2006 2nd round selection should produce more power)

Thomas Diamond

• 4 IP 9H 9ER 3BB K (L)---A rough in the Diamond (had to work in that dumb pun)

Javier Herrera

• 2-4 HR(1) 2 RBI---Loads of potential in this oft injured and underperforming prospect

Allen Craig

• 2-4 2B 3 RBI---.325 6 RBI last 10 games

BUY/SELL Analysis

Cole Gillespie is a polished outfield prospect with decent MLB level athleticism, speed and throwing arm.  He comes from a dynamite Oregon State program that produces solid, baseball savvy prospects.  As a hitter, Gillespie profiles as a .290-.300 hitter with 20 HR power in the left field slot.  Unfortunately for him, he is in a Brewers organization that boasts a wealth of talent (Matt Laporta, Lorenzo Cain, Michael Brantley, Caleb Gindl, and potentially, Mat Gamel) in the outfield.  Gillespie's 1st year cards can be found in the 2007 Bowman Chrome Prospects set and autographs in the Bowman Sterling set.  His Sterling autos sell for $3-4 each and his chrome prospect cards can be acquired in bulk at 50 cents-$1.00 each.  I would love to see this guy get an opportunity with another franchise with bigger market exposure and a corner outfield opening (Post-Raul Ibanez Seattle comes to mind).

Market Advice: If you have read my blog for any amount of time, you know that I L-O-V-E prospects like Gillespie that are overlooked in strong organizations.  Gazing into my crystal ball, I see Gillespie going to the Arizona Fall league and taking a major step forward in his development.  Gillespie's cards are a very strong BUY, especially the autos.  Get 'em in bunches at under $5 a pop right now and thank me later!

Ok, in the vein of overlooked, polished former college players, I bring you Chad Huffman!  Huffman was a 2nd round selection by the San Diego Padres in 2006 out of TCU.  Last season Huffman split time between High A  Lake Elsinore and AA San Antonio, hitting .294 with 24 HR and 100 RBI.  Analysts say that Huffman is a very aggressive player with great work ethic but a long swing and limited athleticism that will be exploited at higher levels.  This season it seems that Huffman has been working on limiting his strikeouts (54 in 73 games) but it has cut into his power production (6 HR 41 RBI).  Huffman has autographed 1st year cards in the 2006 Bowman and Chrome DP set and Bowman Sterling.  His chromes sell for $6-8 each, but the refractors are only going for a few bucks more at $12-14 each.  His Sterlings sell in the $5-7.50 range.

Market Advice:  While I am not as excited about Huffman as I am Gillespie, I do think that acquiring an auto of his is a good BUY at current prices.  I would like to see Huffman increase his power production and finish strong at AA.

Travis Snider

• 3-6 HR(15) 3 RBI 3 R---Adjusting well at AA but has K'ed 103 times!

David Hernandez

• 6.1 IP 2H 2ER 2BB 9K (W)---96 K's thusfar with opponents hitting only .211 against him

George Kontos

• 5 IP 4H ER BB 7K (L)---3rd straight quality start but can't win games (3-7)

Kris Johnson

• 6 IP 2H 2BB 4K (W)---6-3 3.32 ERA 59K/89IP

Jeremy Slayden

• 3-3 2B BB---.291 8 HR 53 RBI

Alcides Escobar

• 3-6 HR(7) 3 RBI 3R 2B---.326 50 RBI 111 Hits 21 SB

Mat Gamel

• 1-3 2B RBI 3BB---.371 118 Hits 15 HR 68 RBI .632 SLG

Michael Brantley

• 2-3 R SB(25)---Multiple hits in 4 of last 5 games

Matt LaPorta

• 2-4 2 2B 2 RBI BB---.297 19 HR 61 RBI .601 SLG

Jordan Schafer

• 2-3 R BB SB(5)---.378 10 RBI 10 R 10 BB last 10 games

David Price

• 6IP 4H 2ER 4BB 7K (W)---Solid 1st outing at AA now 5-0 on the season

Tyler Colvin

• 3-4 3B 2 RBI R---Back to back solid outings in a season that has been a struggle for Colvin

Matt Mangini

• 2-4 2B 3 RBI---Starting to get acclimated at AA after struggling early

Allen Craig

• 2-4 2B RBI R BB---.273 11 HR 47 RBI

Adam Ottovino

• 6IP 1H BB 5K---1st good outing in quite a while

Aaron Cunningham

• 3-4 R 2B---.283 5 HR 20 RBI 8 SB

Brett Anderson

• 6IP 3H 2ER 12K---Stellar AA debut, Anderson seems to have put his early struggles behind him

BUY/SELL Analysis

Kris Johnson was a supplimental 1st round pick in 2006 out of Witchita State.  He suffered an elbow injury and had Tommy John surgery following the 2006 season.  Johnson struggled a bit coming back last year, but has pitched well at AA.  While he has not dominated, .282 BAA, 38 BB, Johnson has found a way to win.  Johnson has good life on his fastball which can reach the mid-90's, but his secondary pitches need some polish.  Johnson has autographed first year cards in the 2006 Bowman Draft and Chrome and Bowman Sterling.  The chrome autos sell for about $7-10 each and the Sterlings sell for about $6-8. 

Market Advice: The fact that Johnson is a Red Sox prospect makes him more attractive than if he was a Pirates or Marlins prospect.  I am having a hard time gauging where Johnson fits in, but the fact remains that he is a raw, left-handed prospect that throws in the low to mid 90's.  He has to develop his secondary pitches or else he will be a lefty middle reliever, which is the equivalent of death as a baseball card prospect.  Tentatively, I would BUY a chrome auto and watch his development closely. Now that Masterson and Buchholz have shown their faces at Fenway, Johnson trails only Michael Bowden as Boston's top minor league pitching prospects.

Alcides Escobar has been one of many Huntsville Stars prospects that has terrorized AA pitching this season.  In his previous 4 minor league seasons, Escobar accumulated just 7 HR in 1,595 AB.  This season, Escobar has 7 HR in just 341 AB.  Escobar has always been an above average SS, and now that his hitting seems to be on the upswing, it is just a matter of time before he is playing in Miller Park.  Escobar has 1st year cards in the 2006 Bowman Chrome Prospects set which are selling at $2 each. 

Market Advice: Escobar is never going to be a prolific power hitter, but he has an opportunity to be a special top of the order hitter in a offense-friendly ballpark.  At $2 each, it seems that Escobar is a solid BUY, and though he likely will not replicate these current numbers at the major league level, he still should receive a nice bump in value once he makes it to The Show.

FR Position Player of the Month of May:

1. Joe Mather, 20 points. Key stats: .311/.385/.709 AVG/OBP/SLG, 12.8% per plate appearance. 10 HR.
2. Allen Craig, 13 pts. .327/.356/.611. 9 HR.
3. Brian Barden, 10 pts. .377/.460/.538.
4. Bryan Anderson, 8 pts. .358/.400/.463.
5. Shane Robinson, 7 pts. .367/.402/.456.

Also receiving points: Andrew Brown, 1.

No question that Mather belongs at the top, his performance was so hard to ignore that it earned him a spot on the big league team when it was all said and done. After him, it’s pretty questionable who was 2nd best. Craig had some monster power numbers that are certainly hard to overlook. Brian Barden had a spectacular month, but how many years has he played in AAA now? Anderson and Robinson both continued to build on their impressive first months of the season.

FR Pitcher of the Month of May:

1. Jess Todd, 20 points. 18.8% K/PA rate, .169 BABIP, 0.91 ERA.
2. Fernando Salas, 16 pts. 53.8% K/PA, 3.8% BB/AP, .167 BABIP. 1.23 ERA.
3. Mitchell Boggs, 8 pts. 3.22 ERA, 51 GB%, 16.2 % K/PA.
4. Mark Diapoules, 6 pts. 64% GB, 2.73 ERA, 19.4% K/PA, 5.6% BB/PA.
5. (Tie) Jaime Garcia, Francisco Samuel 3

Also receiving points-Nick Additon, 2, Mark McCormick 1, Matt Scherer 1.

Todd has been the Pitcher of the Month two times in a row now, last month in Palm Beach now this month while he was in Springfield. At this rate, he’ll be the June Pitcher of the Month at Memphis. Salas has emerged from an unknown in the Mexican League to a shutdown closer in the TL. Like with the hitters, it’s a toss up after the top of the list. You could make an argument for Garcia being next; # 5 seems too low for me but I presume that is because after some great starts in AAA he’s had some so-so ones that have knocked him down a peg. Boggs has been one of the PCL’s most solid starters. Young Mark Diapoules come up to the QC with aplomb, missing bats and inducing lots and lots of grounders with that sinker of his. And Francisco Samuel has been “effectively wild” to this point for Palm Beach, ascending into the closer spot after others have faltered.

This is a few days old, so I might have missed mention of it elsewhere, but here is a nice story/interview with the Cardinals minor league pitcher of the month for April, Jess Todd.

The system played four games tonight and all the details are after the jump.

Memphis 4,  Las Vegas 3 - 12 innings

• Jaime Garcia pitched very well in his first outing at AAA.  He went 6 innings, giving up two runs (one earned) on six hits and no walks.  He struck out six and nine of the other twelve outs he recorded came via the groundball. 
• Colby continues to struggle, going 1-6 last night with three strikeouts.  He stole a base but was also picked off once.
• Joe Mather went 2-5 with a double and had an outfield assist.
• Bryan Anderson continues his smooth adjustment to AAA, going 2-5 with two doubles and an rbi.  Jason Repko did manage to steal second against him.
• Ron Flores, Hugo Castellanos and John Wasdin each pitched a scoreless inning.
• Jason Motte threw two scoreless innings, giving up two hits and an intentional walk while striking out two.
• Chris Perez gave up a run in his inning of work, getting the blown save in the 11th, which also gave him the win when Memphis scored in the top of the 12th.  He gave up two hits and struck out one.
• Garcia, Jarrett Hoffpauir and David Freese all had errors in the game.

Springfield 2, NW Arkansas 6

• Well, let's get the bad news out of the way first: Clayton Mortensen got smacked around again. He only lasted 3.2 innings and gave up five runs (four earned) on six hits and two walks. He did strike out six and he had three groundouts to only one flyout, so his peripherals aren't terrible. He gave up a walk and a homerun in the first inning and then cruised through the next two innings before the wheels came off in the fourth. An error by Allen Craig and a wild pitch compounded Mortensen's problems in the inning.
• On the good side of the ledger, Shane Robinson continued to impress, going 2-3 with a walk.
• The relief corps pitched relatively well, aside from a run given up by Zach Zuercher in his 0.2 innings. Josh Dew pitched 1.1 scoreless with a strikeout, Bob Zimmerman struck out a pair in 1.1 scoreless innings, and Fernando Salas struck out two in his scoreless inning.

Dunedin 1, Palm Beach 5

• Arnoldi Cruz was behind the plate this afternoon and he went 2-4 with a homerun, a double and two rbi.
• Isaias Garcia, Nathan Southard and Antonio DeJesus each went 2-4. Southard and Garcia doubled and Garcia also had a stolen base.
• Oliver Marmol went 1-3 with a double and an rbi, but also committed an error in the field.
• Shaun Garceau pitched five scoreless innings, giving up three hits and three walks while striking out three.
• Brandon Dickson pitched the final four innings, giving up two hits - one a solo homerun - and no walks and striking out one.

Kane County 11, Quad Cities 1

• Not much went right for the River Bandits as they were held to two hits, singles by Mike Folli and Paul Vasquez. The best offensive highlight I can come up with is that Pete Kozma went 0-2 with a walk, a HBP and a stolen base. The team struck out fourteen times (including the golden sombrero for Matthew Aburr).
• Eduardo Sanchez took the loss in going 2.2 innings and giving up three runs (one earned) on three hits, a hit batter and three walks while striking out three, but the ugliest line of the night goes to Thomas Eager. Eager lasted three innings and gave up eight runs, only six were earned though. He allowed four hits, gave up four walks and two homeruns while striking out one.
• Matt Spade struck out three in his 1.1 scoreless innings of work.
• Wayne Daman and Cardoza Tucker each pitched a scoreless inning, with Daman striking out one and giving up a hit and Tucker striking out two and walking one.

Positive Impressions

• Rasmus, Mather, Perez - I've talked enough about them.
• Ian Church - At his age (27) he's not really a prospect, especially since he bounced around the independent leagues and he's never played above Palm Beach, but he crushed the ball in BP the day I saw him.  I'm not sure how many times we said "everybody looks good in BP" while we were in Florida, so it really takes something special (or awful) to garner attention - and Church's BP performance did that.
• Luke Gorsett - Gorsett may not have the big league upside of guys like Daryl Jones or Jon Jay, but [warning: ambiguous Joe Morgan-speak ahead] the ball just sounded different coming off his bat. 
• Allen Craig - I said in my Top 25 that I thought Craig was the most intriguing hitting prospect in the system outside of Rasmus.  Seeing him take BP did nothing to dissuade that opinion - he was completely crushing the ball.  One of my bigger disappiontments was that I just missed Craig and Freese taking grounders at third - I really wanted to see how he looked defensively.
• Pete Kozma - I had the opposite reaction to Kozma in my Top 25, but I liked what little I saw of him.  I never got a chance to see him swing the bat, but he looked very good in the field during middle infield practice.

Negative Impressions:

• Mark Hamilton - Mark was taking BP in the same group as Craig and looked terrible.  I expected to see moon shots, but instead he was hitting these crazy linedrives with topspin on them so that they dove for the ground after getting out of the infield.  Perhaps someone out there with more knowledge regarding the technical aspects of swings can tell me what that means, but something was definitely off with his swing the day I saw him.
• Tyler Greene - Greene didn't exactly do anything poorly, he just didn't do anything that looked all that great.  He made all the plays in infield practice, but compared to Kozma he looked a little plodding and like he was giving half-hearted effort.  He didn't do anything memorable in the cage, either.

Other interesting tidbits:

• One day while I was snapping pictures my father got into an interesting conversation with one of the Cardinals scouts, Mr. Fick (I don't recall his first name).  Mr. Fick called himself the Grim Reaper because he was going around putting guys on his 'cuts list'.  He told my dad that it was a tough job because he had signed some of those guys and had sat in their house and sold their parents on the idea of their son playing for the Cardinals.  He was a nice guy with a tough job.
• John Mozeliak sat one section over from my father's seats at the games - here is Mo just after he signed Kyle Lohse (maybe - they announced later that day):

Here is a picture of Mo trying to work out a deal with the Braves (if we trade for Brent Lillibridge, remember that I broke the story):

And finally, here is a picture of Mo getting fed up with me taking his picture:

Dan Fox rocks. I don't know if you've been following his research at BP on his new fielding metric Simple Fielding Runs or not, but it's worth the read if you don't mind hearing about some methods. Of course, the good part is when he gets to the numbers...until you find out just how bad Chris Duncan really is. On the flip side, you hear again just how good Pujols is.

Fox also just provided a download of SFR that included minor league infield data. Huge props to him.

So how did some of our infield prospects rate?

• David Freese has had somewhat of a bum rap for his defense, but not so according to SFR. He's the 8th best 3B in the minors and worth about 12.3 runs.
• There have been a lot of questions about Allen Craig's defense, and according to SFR he's more close to neutral then detrimental, coming up +2.7 runs. That jives with what Derrick Goold told us a few weeks ago. "He’s not great at third, he’s not a game-changer at third, but he also – according to an opposing manager – doesn’t hurt his team."
• We have a couple of good fielding shortstops in Jose Martinez and Tyler Greene. Martinez came in at +8.3 and Greene at +8. (edit: Martinez also was a +6.8 at Palm Beach) That's encouraging. Last year there was talk that Greene should move to third, and this season we've been hearing that Martinez would be better at 2B. Both have more value at their current posisition. Speaking of SS's, Brendan Ryan was +3.6 for Memphis.
• The best infielder in the system? Donovan Solano. He was a +12.6 at 3B for Quad Cities, and +4.3 at SS for PB. Unfortunately he has just a .589 career minor league OPS. Then again, our starting big league SS had a career .630 OPS in the minors and still has made it to the big leagues because of his defense.
• So who was the worst fielder in the system last season? Thankfully, it wasn't a prospect but a minor league journeyman-New Padre Edgar Gonzalez was -13 runs. Yikes. No wonder he hasn't seen a big league at bat yet. I think he owes Blake Hawksworth and Mike Parisi an apology.
• Pete Kozma wasn't great but wasn't bad. +1.9. His high school team played on turf, word is he was adjusting to a different surface. I'm optimistic he'll improve.
• Jarrett Hoffpauir was also about neutral. +1.2 in AA, -1.2 in AAA.
• Brian Barden was a +11 for Tucson at 3B, making him one of the better fielders in the minors.
• Mark Hamilton was bad, a cumulative -4.5 between A and AA.

Scouting perspective
Allen Craig: Craig is 23 years old. He stands at 6-2, 190 pounds. He has good power and a line drive machine. He hits the ball to all fields with his short yet powerful compact swing. Isn't really a power pull guy. Very aggressive hitter. Questions on whether his glove will play at third, but the early reports are that he can handle the position adequately.

David Freese: Freese is going to turn 25 this spring. He is 6-2, 220 lbs. A polished college hitter with power potential. Patient. Strong, has good strike zone judgment and good bat speed. Arm strength a plus, he even started a few games as a pitcher in college. Lacks fluidity and range at 3B.

This is a goofy little chart I came up with to illustrate the differences tools-wise of the players, and Freese and Craig are pretty close. Craig has the advantage in the important power category and 'hitting for average' category, but it's not like Freese is far behind him. Two big advantages Freese has is with his size and ability to control the strike zone.

Statistical performance

Let's just go straight to another groovy little chart based on both players performance in at the high A level.

Other then walks, Craig has the advantage in every category. But let's also keep in mind context of leagues and parks. The FSL is the most power suppressive leagues in the A+ class, whereas the California League is the most power conducive. League average ISO in the FSL is .122, in the Cal it's .155. On the other hand, Lake Elsinore Diamond is doubly more suppressive on the long ball then Roger Dean. So again, they're not that far apart.

Wrapping it up:

Yep, these guys are basically the same. The only big difference I find, and that's if you want to call it a big difference, is that Craig is one year younger. Freese being a 24 in A ball knocks his status back a bit, but it's hard to fault him since he was blocked by Chase Headley. I like Craig a little better because of the power and line drives, but then I like Freese because he's big, patient and I think his ground ball tendencies could be curbed. Give me grape. No, wait. Give me cherry...

Hearkening back to the prospect SAT's for a moment, here's what I see--

Craig-Ty Wigginton-Garrett Atkins
Freese-Scott Spiezio-Chad Tracy

If Craig is my # 11 prospect, then Freese would probably land #14-16ish.

I hope this amalgam of info kinda helps give a little perspective in what the Cardinals got in return for Jim Edmonds. It'll be interesting to see where Freese starts his season. Will he jump to AAA, or will he be in AA along with Craig? If so, will they split the DH/3B duties between them? Both could certainly benefit from the more experience at the hot corner. Since Freese is older, I could see him leapfrog Craig and start in AAA.

Peak Translation: Applies a typical aging pattern to the regular translation, to try and assess how good the player will be at his peak. Peak generally means somewhere around age 27; however, since the components of offense don't age at the same rates (speed decays earlier than power, for instance), and since players don't have the same mix of those components, the actual peak age has some variability, as early as 25 for pure speedsters and as late as 30 for sluggers...the peak translation is an important tool for me to assess prospect status.

Davenport's system believes Colby is capable of being an above average major leaguer right now. When you apply the normal aging curves of what a player with Colby's skill set is expected to perform at his peak, we see that Colby is expected to be an All Star, possibly even the best at his position for a period. That got me wondering-what are some of the other peak translations for the other hitters in the system? There are a few worth noting, enough to make this at least a 2 part series. Here we go-

Allen Craig
Actual line: .312/.370/.530. MLE EqA: .267
Peak translation: .299/.355/.520. EqA: .293

The average EqA for a 3rd sacker last season was .269. To put Craig's numbers in perspective, Aramis Ramirez had a .294 EqA last season and Mike Lowell was at .288. That's All Star company. Just to throw this out there, Rolen and his creaky shoulder eked out a .256 EqA. To add a healthy dose of skepticism, despite hitting like the dickens in the Florida State League, most scouts seemed indifferent to Craig for one reason or another. Then there's also that dicey issue of whether or not he can remain at the hot corner. All in all though, this is a very encouraging translation. Rolen may not be expendable for 2008, but he very well could be by 2009.

Bryan Anderson
Actual line: .298/.348/.388. MLE EqA: .230
Peak translation: .301/.356/.400. EqA: .266

Yeah, that is just a little above average on the surface, and it may make some of you Anderson doubters feel justified. But consider league average EqA for catchers last season was .244. Paul LoDuca was the epitome of average, while Jason Varitek and Brian McCann were right around Anderson's level. Yadier Molina had a .251 EqA, his career high. Lifetime, he has a .228 EqA, but Yadier's peak translation is .269. Combine that with his Gold Glove worthy fielding (I'm looking at you, NL coaches and managers!), and you can argue that Anderson is expendable. I've long thought Yadi was capable of being a better hitter. I'm still a little skeptical he'll improve the way we'd like, while I feel more confident with Anderson as a hitter. Now if he could start to hit for some power...

There will be a handful of others in part 2 and maybe part 3 of this series, and we'll also look at the pitchers at some point as well. Stay tuned.

Swing of the Quad Cities

ERA 3.32
DER .651
FIP 3.55

This was a solid staff that was helped by their defense. The rotation of Herron, Hernandez and Garceau (and Walters and Degerman for a time) were adept at missing bats, and Brandon Dickson was one of the league’s best at inducing grounders at a 59% clip. The league average DER was .646, so the team was above average in the field. The bad news is there isn’t a position player that was on the team that seems truly worth following, outside of perhaps Brandon Buckman and Steve Hill. (And maybe Cruz). Buckman is considered a fine defensive 1st baseman, he was voted by managers as the best at his position while he was in the Midwest League. I don't know much about the rest.

Palm Beach Cardinals

ERA 3.95
DER .663
FIP 3.81

This pitching staff was a little better then their defense, and their defense was quite one of the best in the league and the best of all Cardinal farm teams. (And it included about 800 innings of Allen Craig at 3rd!) Norrick and Ottavino were two of the best in their league at missing bats, but walks inflate their team FIP level. Surprisingly, despite getting knocked around, Trey Hearne had a FIP of 3.94 but had a ghastly BABIP of .372 that puffed up his ERA. He allowed a line drive rate of 16% which isn’t really that bad. Where does the fault lie? I don’t know for sure, but according to firstinning.com’s hit chart, Hearne’s foes hit .541 when they took him to left, .489 to center and .475 to right. Where they all wall bangers, or what? Rapoport, Southard can’t be that bad. Van Slyke and Church played a lot of left early in the season; maybe they should receive the blame. I have no idea what’s going on here other then perhaps dumb luck. Hearne’s BABIP was .256 in his splendid 2006 that got him noticed; now the other side of luck seems to have swatted him, I guess. Don't be surprised if Norrick and Ottavino get a little knicked up in AA.

ERA 4.07
DER .655
FIP 4.48

The Springfield defense was a small tick below average of the rest of the league (.657), but it appears they were much more of help then a hindrance to the pitching staff. Mitch Boggs, Jaime Garcia, Cory Rauschenberger and Eric Haberer all had sizable differences in their ERA and their FIP. Considering the ballpark is a rather notorious hitter’s park, we can read into this a little bit. If their team play is a reflection of their individual play, then that makes Jarrett Hoffpauir, Colby Rasmus, Jose Martinez defense look to be at worst average, if not above. For whatever it’s worth, and it may not be worth much, Hoff had a range factor of 5.05 this season in AA. NL average is 4.38. There are ways to adjust these things, but I don’t have time to go through the math Olympic training it takes to do it. Maybe one day. Don't expect Boggs to have an ERA below 4.00 in AAA next year, unless Memphis sees some actual defenders get signed. Martinez, Craig and Hamilton will all likely stay in AA.

Memphis Redbirds

ERA 4.82
DER .636
FIP 4.53

This team stinks, no matter how you slice it. The fielding was lousy, and I wonder how of the blame falls on Edgar Gonzalez, who’s a noted butcher at the keystone. Those who have seen Brendan Ryan can note he could use some refining, but is hardly bad. That goes for Rick Ankiel, too. Nick Stavinoha isn't the best in the field, from what I hear. Hawksworth and Parisi were the only starting pitching prospects coming into the year, and Hawk’s FIP (5.73) was worse then his ERA (5.27). Parisi’s FIP 5.17 was a little worse (4.91). When it comes to next season, you hope when they do sign minor league vets, they help their pitchers by signing decent fielders, as opposed to the Edgar Gonzalez’s of the world.

Drafted out of California, Allen Craig has been on the fast track in the Cardinal's farm system. An 8th round pick who signed for a paltry $15,000. A member of the 2002 US Junior National team (along with luminaries like Ian Kennedy, Chad Billingsley and Lastings Milledge), Craig had several injury setbacks during his college career. The Cardinals asked him to lose some weight entering this season and he reported to camp having lost 10-15 pounds after a new conditioning program.  He went on to have a breakout year, cementing himself in the top 20 Cardinal prospects.

The Stats
Craig played the remainder of the 2006 season with the Cardinals former short season affiliate team State College. The right-handed hitting Craig was placed at 3B and hit .256/.318/.398. The isolated power is just shy of the .150-pt cutoff used in the Visualizing Hitters graphs but for a first go at pro baseball, the numbers aren't terrible for someone getting re-acclimated to a wood bat and suffering from knee problems during the year. While he played SS in college, Craig's range wasn't sufficient to play there moving forward. Corner infielders have a higher offensive threshold requirement and Craig wasn't putting up numbers that would support an average defensive 3B.

Craig opened up eyes this year beginning at Palm Beach in his age 23 season. Putting up a monster April by batting .382/.402/.663 with 6 HRs in 89 ABs. He had more HRs than walks (3) that month. May took some adjustments as his BABIP fell to more reasonable levels and his strikeout rates rose to dangerous levels. As a power hitter with a slightly long swing, Craig will probably strike out more than average. In July, he was placed on the DL with lower back spasms that held him to just 33 PAs for the month. He finished with a strong August hitting 4 HRs and an ISO over .200.

For 2007, Craig posted solid peripheral statistics across the board. He had 472 PAs at Palm Beach, which is a large enough sample to give us a good idea of where his talent level is. His K% is completely acceptable for a power hitter at roughly 17%. His plate discipline took a step forward from 2006 helping to make him a more complete offensive player. He posted a .370 OBP on the year through a combination of hitting for average and walking in 8% of his PAs. Craig should be able to sustain his batting average as he laces line drives at an above average rate (and one that should support his slightly high BABIP).

One thing that may have gotten overlooked was his struggles at his home stadium. While the Florida State League is considered a pitcher's league all around, Craig did quite well away from the Palm Beach stadium. He slugged .100pts higher with a better walk rate and strikeout rate on the road. While his overall rate stats for the year (.312/.370/.530) are quite good, it's possible that he could really tee off next year spending a full season at Hammonds Field in Springfield.

The Question
Craig's bat is good but it plays much better at 3B than it would at 1B. He'd be an above average 3B prospect but just an average 1B one, which begs the question "Can he stay at 3B defensively?". And the answer is, I don't know. He's got the work ethic to improve defensively and the Cardinals should have both the patience and the time to leave him at 3B in the minors. There's no one besides some organizational players that are ahead of him at Springfield and Memphis. Time is going to tell but if he can't stick at 3B it has some serious implications for his future.

The Future
It's hard to pinpoint his prospect path because of the defensive issues. Right now, a single good year (even coupled with good reviews from scouts) leads me to believe that he's more of a bench player like Scott Spiezio is currently than an everyday 3B. I'm a huge fan of him on a visceral level but as a realistic evaluator his bat isn't going to hold up for an everyday 1B. I have hopes that the offense continues and the defensive woes get fixed (can we have Scott Rolen visit with Craig for a while maybe?) then he could make his way as a starter at 3B during his peak years, say ages 26-30. He's not a superstar talent like Colby Rasmus but he's also a better bet to make the bigs right now than Tyler Greene. Along with guys like Mark Hamilton and Joe Mather, he's in that second tier of Cardinal prospects that are good but not great prospects with some questions remaining.

wily mo (wily motown): hey, what about allen craig? once you realize he was in the FSL, that was probably one of the better hitting seasons in high-A (by a prospect-aged human). and he was a shortstop in college, so he has to be able to play defense *somewhere*. but nobody really talks about him. is he a real prospect? what's wes hodges got that he hasn't got?

Kevin Goldstein: He's a semi-real prospect, but I wouldn't get too worked up about him. OK, I might as a Cardinal fan, because they don't have many hitters in the system. That said, he's a pretty bad third baseman with an aggressive approach at the plate who doesn't have a whole lot of big-time believers among scouts. Hodges has a better glove, faster bat, better approach and more power potential.

I salute Wily for his Borowsky-ish typing skills. As a Cardinal fan, I am getting a bit more worked up about him and frankly am bummed that he doesn't have those big time believers. I sort of confused about how Hodges is better, mainly because Goldstein sees and hears from scouts and managers, I mostly see stat pages. And the stat pages tell me Craig hit for more power, struck out less and hit more line drives, all in a more pitcher friendly league. The plate discipline issue is a valid point, but his walk rate steadily improved throughout the season. Craig is a year older. I respect Goldstein...a lot, and if that's the word he's hearing then I believe him. Darn it.

BA also had their chat about the NY Penn leaguers, and there were many question about Cardinal farmhands, but this one in particular I felt was worth passing it along.

Dan from St. Louis asks:
Clayton Mortensen was a surprise pick early in the supplemental round, but you said he would have been a top 10 prospect in the league if he had pitched enough. What type of stuff was he showing in his brief stint in the league?

Aaron Fitt: Mortensen is a sinker-slider guy with a ton of movement on his low-90s sinking fastball and a good, hard major league slider. He has some rough edges to polish (his delivery is not the smoothest, though it lends him some deception) and he needs to improve his changeup to stick as a starter.

Again, I really respect Aaron's perspective but tell me if you haven't heard this 1000 times before?  I read this stuff in my annual of BA over and over. "If so and so could catch a magic wish granting stag to grant him a change he'll take off". Nonsense. Chris Carpenter won a Cy Young with two or three variations of a fastball and a curve. The next spring training he was talking about working on getting a changeup. There are thousands of major league pitchers, and many of them successful who also wish they could've honed a decent change. To me, I don't care if Mort gets a change or not. If he can keep throwing strikes and inducing ground balls, he should make fine pitcher in the show. Let's not relegate every pitcher that hasn't learned to throw a change to the middle of some team's bullpen. That's not to say they didn't like Mortensen, they would've ranked him in their top 10 had he pitched a few more innings.

The Cardinals named Tyler Herron their Minor League Pitcher of the Month for June, and Allen Craig was the Player of the Month. Herron went 5-0 with a save, a 2.27 ERA and 37 strikeouts in 31 2/3 innings at Class A Quad Cities. Craig hit .337 with seven home runs, 19 runs and 24 RBIs in June for Class A Palm Beach. Herron was also named the Midwest League's Pitcher of the Week for June 25-July 1.

Congrats to Herron and Craig.

Evan Fisk (aka effin fisk, frequent poster at VEB) had a fun little interview with Rasmus. Find all about the Ken Griffey Jr./Colby Rasmus (or should I call him "Razzle"? That's a terrible nickname, we have to think of something better then that) connection.

BA reports that right-handed reliever Adam Reifer of UC Riverside has signed. Reifer was throwing 92-93 while touching 97 before having surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow, a la Carp and was projected to be a possible first round pick in next year's draft. He also throws a curve, slider and a change which could make him a starting candidate. He also has experienced shoulder issues causing his stock to slip, and that's why we haven't seen his name in any boxscores.

And onto today's games:

Memphis 4, New Orleans 3

Rick Ankiel hit his 23rd homer of the season, while Edgar Gonzalez continues to make his case for a call up, and he may get one if Scott Spiezio lands on the DL. He went 3 for 4 but did make his 10th error. Tagg Bozied and Nick Stavinoha both doubled.

The entire Texas League had the day off.

Palm Beach 3, Brevard County 7 (7 innings)

Carp's rehab outing didn't go all that well. He allowed 5 runs on 5 hits while striking out 2. Only 3 of the runs were earned, as Dan Nelson had 2 fielding errors to start 2 innings. Brandon Yarbrough had the honor of catching Carpenter, and he went 2 for 3 with a throwing error. Trey Hearne followed in relief, and he's starting to somewhat right his ship. He allowed 2 runs over 4.2 innings, allowing 4 hits and a walk, while striking out 4. Allen Craig went 2 for 2 with 2 walks. Brandon Buckman went 2 for 3 with a double.

Their 2nd game of the doubleheader was suspended.

QC 7, Clinton 6 in 10 innings

Jaime Landin was the hero tonight, driving in the winning run on a walk off single and earlier in the game he hit a HR. Jose Ramirez went 2 for 3 with a homer and drove in 2 runs. Chris Grossman went 2 for 3 with a couple of walks while Christian Reyes went 2 for 4. Starting pitcher Brandon Dickson allowed 5 runs on 8 hits while getting just 1 strikeout and 8 ground outs. Kenny Maiques picked up the win in relief.

Batavia 3, State College 9

Brandon Garner only recorded 4 outs while giving up 5 runs on 6 hits. Logan Collier came in in relief, and was only able to record 5 outs while giving up 3 more runs. The bright spot for the pitching tonight was BYU product JD Stambaugh, who allowed a run on 2 hits over 4 innings, striking out 5. Offensively, 6th round pick Oliver Marmol had a big night, going 2 for 4 with a double and 2 runs scored, and he also stole a base. Daniel Delscalso went 2 for 4 as well.

Johnson City 3, Elizabethton 5

Joey Hage went 3 for 5 and had an outfield assist. Jose Garcia went 3 for 4 with a walk. Dognnt Bolivar went 2 for 4 and committed his 8th error. Matt Arburr went 0 for 4 with 3 strikeouts and was picked off at 2nd, pretty rough night. Beau Riportella went 2 for 5. Pitching wise, Mark Diapoules allowed 4 runs on 5 hits over an inning, and was credited for a blown save. Starter Senger Peralta allowed a run on 3 hits and a walk, striking out 3.

GCL Cards 6, GCL Dodgers 5

Edgar Lara was the hitting star, going 3 for 4 with 2 doubles and scoring 2 runs. Jairo Martinez went 2 for 3 with 3 RBI. Edwin Conde drove in 2 on a double, going 1 for 2 with a walk. Fabian Marquez started the game, he gave up 3 runs on 3.2 innings on 4 hits and 4 walks, striking out 2.

Game 2 GCL Cards 2, GCL Dodgers 7 

Osvaldo struck again, hitting his 4th HR of the season. Brian Buck went 2 for 2 with a double. Rigoberto Lugo struck out 3 over 2 innings while allowing 2 runs on a hit and 2 walks.

Aaron Miles (.314 AVG, .343 SLG, .358 OBP - 0 HRs) - Of the players currently on the 25 man roster, Miles is probably the most viable defensive option, but he is still a 2nd baseman filling in at 3rd on his best days. Also, while hitting for a high average this year, his SLG % leaves something to be desired. Let's not forget, Glaus will leave a large RBI hole in the lineup. We need better than a singles hitter to adequately replace him.

Brendan Ryan (.286 AVG, .317 SLG, .328 OBP - 0 HR) - Ryan is similar to Miles but with less defensive consistency and major league experience. He is clearly not comfortable at the hot corner. However, his offensive potential (especially in the area of extra base hits) is higher than Miles'. All-in-all, if Ryan is the best option we have, we need more options.

AAA Rico Washington (.158 AVG, .263 SLG, .273 OBP - 0 HRs) - Rico impressed TLR in Spring Training with his ability to handle 3rd base, but when given the opportunity to play at the Major League level, he was offensively (and at times, defensively) disappointing. His return to Triple A hasn't gone much better (.191 AVG), and the organization has to consider his place on the overall depth chart severely degraded. Still, of the options explored so far, he is the only natural 3rd baseman in the group.

AAA Jarrett Hoffpauir (.261 AVG, .366 SLG, .363 OBP - 1 HR) - Hoffpauir is classified as a 2nd baseman, but as well as I can figure, the kid is capable of playing all of the infield positions in a crunch. While he doesn't seem to have the comfortable average we like to see, his SLG percentage and one home run seem to indicate he does have extra-base hit power, and that could prove more valuable when replacing Glaus over an extended period of time. The up side - Hoffpauir is highly regarded by the organization and has traditionally hit for a higher average. The down side - he's green. Can he adjust to the Major League level fast enough to be of any help at 3rd base?

AAA Joe Mather (.305 AVG, .669 SLG, .406 OBP - 11 HRs) - This kid is HOT. He is the Triple A equivalent of Ryan Ludwick, right now. Consistent eye-opening power, hits for a high average, and is enough of an athlete to display above average versatility. The problem? Mather broke into pro ball as a 3rd baseman - he was moved to the outfield for a reason. The question? Could he handle 3rd base defensively at the Major League level? As of yet, I just don't know. I do know Mather is crushing the ball and is capable of playing the outfield and both infield corners in a pinch. The major roadblock? Tony La Russa. TLR is hesitant to bring Joey Bombs up to this level just to sit him on the bench two out of three games. Still...kid's gotta' get some consideration.

AAA David Freese (.258 AVG, .411 SLG, .311 OBP - 4 HRs) - Freese is in a unique situation when compared to the other options. He's the only man in the group not on the 40-man roster. This basically means the Cardinals would have to make an additional move just to get him eligible for call-up. However, it could be worth it. Freese was the player we received from San Diego in the Jim Edmonds trade. He skipped AA and moved from single A directly to AAA. So far, even though his average is down, he seems to be showing he can stick. And, his SLG percentage and batting average are perhaps most similar to Glaus' - albeit at AAA. If the 40-man roster situation is the down side for Freese, the up side is the fact that he is a natural 3rd baseman.

When it comes right down to it, I gotta' go with Joey Bombs. Mather is just hitting too well to ignore any and all opportunities to bring him up to the Big Leagues. And, he already proved he can hold his own against pitchers at this level in Spring Training. Sure, he could be a liability at 3rd, but so is Brendan Ryan. TLR doesn't want to bring up Mather just to sit him on the bench, but bringing him up as a 3rd base replacement and his versatility means he could conceivably get him in the lineup 2 out of 3 games. Need an outfielder? He can do that. Need a first baseman? He can do that, too. Need a 3rd baseman? Well...I THINK he can do that...at least as well as Ryan has performed over there this year.

The 50/50? Rico Washington. Sure, he didn't exactly impress during his brief stint with the club, but it did provide him invaluable Major League experience over the other options. Also, in addition to being a natural third baseman, the club could place a bit of additional value on his overall pro ball longevity. The guy HAS been in the minors for a LONG time.

Of course...all of this is a moot point if it turns out Glaus just had some bad Chinese...

P.S. Yeah, Allen Craig in AA could be an option...but I doubt the club wants to force a guy to jump over so many viable options at AAA and possibly damage his overall development.