This is the way the world ends/Not with a bang but a whimper.

T.S.Eliot, The Hollow Men

Merrill Lynch published this chart last night of the U.S. Short term Treasury obligations of $742 Billion. Note that 2/3rds of this debt is held by the central banks of about 8 countries including China, Russia, Saudia Arabia, and Japan. Let's assume the dollar keeps falling because the Fed is afraid to raise interest rates in an election year. At what point do we encounter a "buyers strike" from these Central Banks at a Treasury Bill auction, which forces rates much higher in order to keep paying for the War In Iraq? What happens then? According to Merrill, this is what happens.

The US consumer is ultimately forced to violently adjust its impaired balance sheet. An insatiable appetite for debt comes against the constraint of reduced global credit availability.

There are only two ways to "violently adjust" a balance sheet: forced asset sales or bankruptcy. Either one leads to financial panic. Someday when the history of the decline of the American Empire is told, we will look at this chart on the left, and see that it was when Ronald Reagan came to office that we started going into debt to the rest of the world. And we will know that the idealogical stupidity of the conservative revolution lead us to this Day of Reckoning.

The task of rebuilding America as a producing/saving economy as opposed to a consumption/debt economy will be left to the Democrats. It will be painful and the supply side economist idealogues that brought this plague upon our nation will retreat to their think tanks like Heritage and AEI and pretend it wasn't their fault.

Our Puritan forefathers would have locked them in the Pillory stocks for public shaming.

Lee Raymond, former Chairman and CEO of Exxon and Vice Chair of AEI's board of trustees.

For those even remotely in touch with climate issues, ExxonMobil's funding of Market Fundamentalist think tanks to spread FUD about climate change is no secret (see Put A Tiger In Your Think Tank I and II, or here, here, here, etc.), and in an alternately amusing and sickening way it has become more newsworthy when Exxon claims (falsely, I might add- e.g. here and here) to have stopped this practice than reporting on instances where it obviously had. Among the think tanks used by ExxonMobil, notables include CEI, the George C. Marshall Institute, and AEI- the last perhaps being more infamous for its role in drumming up support for the US invasion of Iraq than its anti-regulation propaganda efforts on behalf of the oil industry.

Today AEI released (via the LA Times) a "short publication" fully embracing the reality of anthropogenic climate change- but did so in service of (surprise!) anti-regulation messaging. No need to regulate any time soon, the implicit argument is made, because of the Magical Geo-Engineering Solution That Doesn't Yet Exist But Surely Will:

In fact, geo-engineering could be surprisingly simple.

That is, if those pesky ivory tower elitists allow it:

Fear that geo-engineering might work, however, is the reason some people reject, or are reluctant to even openly discuss, this idea. Critics worry that geo-engineering could be used as an excuse to continue unchecked emissions forever. Within the last two years, three high-level conferences have explored geo-engineering; each was held behind closed doors. One premier university was too frightened to even do that. There have been calls for boycotts of the research or, failing that, strict international regulations.

For the appearance of honesty some caveats were superficially referenced, but quickly dismissed:

Scientists note that sulfur particles could cause stratospheric ozone depletion, although the evidence from Pinatubo suggests that this effect would be modest.

Modest? If by modest AEI means setting back ozone recovery by at least several decades (Tilmes et al. 2008). [EDIT: And let's not forget that climate change is tied to the fate of the ozone layer (Son et al. 2008), all but guaranteeing that further depletion and prolonged recovery will exacerbate the very effects sulfate geo-engineering proposes to avoid.]

What of painting roofs white? New Scientist did a first pass at the numbers and found that at best painting every roof in the world white would only nudge planetary albedo by a one-hundredth, and goes on to make the point that solar roofing would be a significantly better use of the space.

As for ocean sprayers? 50 cubic meters of ocean water would need to be sprayed globally every second in order to offset a doubling of CO2.

None of these "solutions" address the resulting ocean acidification and nutrient changes that would occur as CO2 continued its massive increase even if warming could be offset.

The overall tone of the AEI piece presents geo-engineering as a much more plausible solution than the science supports and downplays the numerous arguments that favor mitigation and adaptation as the superior solution. It is difficult, in this light, to view AEI's championing of geo-engineering as anything other than a new strategy for delaying regulation, albeit in a manner that has been forced to concede the reality of anthropogenic climate change.

[UPDATE: It looks like Chris Mooney (whose books The Republican War on Science and Storm World I very much enjoyed, but whose position on the "framing" science/Expelled nastiness I didn't care for at all) has a piece in the upcoming issue of Wired on geo-engineering as well. Mooney is no climate science denialist, and I think that the merits of geo-engineering should be openly weighed, but I can't help but wonder where Wired is going with all this. Yes, it's mostly product placement a tech magazine and not a science or policy rag, but can't we do without the constant repetition of "forget what you think you know about X/it's time for Y" meme, and hope for a little coherence and substance? How can they claim in one breath that cutting carbon is paramount- so much so that environmental goals should be sacrificed for it (false dilemma)- and then float geo-engineering in the next? That's more than a little schizophrenic.]

[LATE UPDATE: Mooney's piece: Can a Million Tons of Sulfur Dioxide Combat Climate Change?]

[LATE LATE UPDATE: Joe Romm weighs in on Wired/Mooney. I'll probably comment more on this later, as I noted it ties back into the Strategic Defense-climate connection (e.g. here, here, here).]

At the American Enterprise Institutes's panel discussion on Taiwan's Economic Future, this week much of the initial talk centred on a US-Taiwan free trade agreement (FTA). But all the speakers were in agreement that the economic benefits are 'embarrassingly small'. That is, a few billion dollars in trade gains (including a lot of trade diversion) and miniscule income gains -- all too small to quote in percentage terms.

Some other useful points worth mentioning:

-One of the biggest impediments to Taiwan's trade is its trade with mainland China is a one way street, or one hand clapping, as it restricts imports of a whole range of critical goods from the mainland... and prevents Taiwan from achieving its full competitiveness in the global economy. (direct trade and investment was banned unitl as recently as 2001).

-One of the best ways for the United States to engage Taiwan and boost trade is by helping with Taiwan's behind the border reforms. This will not be done most effectively in a preferential or discriminatory FTA. Most of the panel agreed that the regulatory system has a long way to go and much more needs to be done in terms of privatisation of state owned enterprises.

-A potential US-Taiwan FTA will not face the same sort of domestic resistance in Taiwan as the US-RoK FTA is facing in Korea now. Of course, some of this is the mishandling of the beef issue by both the United States and RoK governments. But it is not now the strategic interest as Beijing and Taipei attempt to sort out the trade and travel restrictions that severely damage Taiwan’ trade and incomes.

-If the US-Taiwan link is severed in any way, not only are the security implications huge, the economic security implications are huge. Taiwan is the Silicon shield, said Rupert Hammond-Chambers, the president of the US-Taiwan business council. Taiwan is a vital part of the global supply chain because it leads the world in chips, chips and chips (semi conductors, not freedom fries).

-The main argument for a US-Taiwan FTA? Maintain the status quo in security, both the geopolitical and economic kinds. The proponents of the FTA did acknowledge unilateral trade liberalisation is the first best option, followed by multilateral liberalisation (WTO) and lastly an FTA.

-The plethora of bilateral FTAs in Asia have had negligible economic effect so far and remain unlikely to.

And what will Beijing's reaction be, or Australia’s to all the trade diversion?

At a time when there is promise of movement between Taipei and Beijing, which is likely to significantly strengthen Taiwan’s global competitiveness, the sensible heads are suggesting that much more can be done to promote American investment and commercial interests by an agreement that does not need an FTA framework at all but seeks to assist regulatory reform and get tariffs, trade and services down where they need to in what is still a heavily regulated economy.

In his Bloomberg column today, Kevin Hassett of the American Enterprise Institute charges that the news media is guilty of a “politically motivated pessimism” when it pushes “the idea that the U.S. is in a terrible recession.” Hassett, who is an economic adviser to Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), argues that the “Democratic-leaning press” may be trying to “influence the election” against McCain.

...

But he also neglects to mention that the candidate who he claims would be hurt by the purported “bias” hasn’t been shy about describing the economy as in a recession. In fact, on April 14, when McCain was asked directly, “Are we in a recession?” he responded, “I certainly think so.”

Each panelist described a different professional approach to representing authors. Kuciak, a producer at AEI, explained that he was technically classified as a manager, not an agent. In California, where agents are licensed and regulated by the state, only agents are legally permitted to sell an author’s work to a purchaser. As a management and production company, Kuciak explained, whenever AEI succeeded in setting up a production, its policy was to refund the representation fee charged to an author. Kuciak pointed out that it was in his company’s best interest to arrange a production deal from which it and the author could both profit the most.

Levine stressed his qualifications as a practicing attorney and disclosed that in the past he'd been retained by AEI to review a complex rights agreement involving a film deal. Levine also serves his own clients as a literary agent and handles the subsidiary rights to their published books. When he was interviewed by Chuck Sambuchino last month for the Guide to Literary Agents Editor’s Blog, Levine mentioned he’d be teaching university classes on the legal aspects of book publishing this summer. When asked whether book contracts were less intricate to negotiate than contracts for film or television rights to an author’s work, Levine insisted they were equivalent in complexity.

Sherman, who teaches the business aspects of screenwriting to the students at two universities in California, is a literary and script agent in the traditional sense of the term. He cautioned the writers in the audience to work with only reputable agents or managers, such as the panelists, and to obtain referrals from other authors or industry professionals. Agents’ and managers’ experience in the film and television industry, he and the other panelists emphasized, resulted in a network of connections that facilitated the most lucrative sales. Sherman steered the question-and-answer session toward an uplifting conclusion by reminding the writers in attendance of their love for their work and the immense value of persevering in the face of what can sometimes seem to be discouraging odds in a competitive business.

The three authors’ representatives agreed that the most important quality to look for when seeking representation was an agent or manager’s dedication to ensuring client-authors obtained the best possible deals in exchange for the copyrights to their work. In addition to checking the current editions of the Hollywood Creative Directory and the Hollywood Representation Directory for an agent or manager’s listing, the panelists recommended that writers trust their instincts. If a deal sounded too good to be true, or a deal broker seemed a little too eager, something was probably amiss.

As the American Enterprise Institute rolls out its "New Way Forward" via their current pitch team, they are already looking to the future and the next generation of public servant spokesmen. 

Apparently tapped for the lucrative contracts are Joe Lieberman and John McCain. 

They held a joint Q&A session for media consumption at the AEI offices in DC after a long meeting with the big wigs.  Together, Lieberman and McCain heaped "unsolicited" praise on the "New Way Forward" plan, days before the President was to give his speech announcing the plan as his own. 

Lieberman even referred to the Kagan study "Choosing Victory" as the best plan that he had seen and hoped the President would sign on.  "Choosing Victory" is AEI's policy-as-sales-pitch that allows the corporations that AEI represents to remain in Iraq, and even step up the involvement.           

Brilliant really. 

When faced with mounting opposition to the war and a determined democratic legislative branch of congress, these guys don't shirk and run for the Caymans, counting their record profits along the way.  No, they present a "new" version of the same old plan, and escalate their fraudulent contracts along the way!  There is no defense like a great offense!

 The only thing different about this new plan is that it sets up Maliki as the fall guy. 

The new "talking points" are that Maliki has failed as have the people of Iraq.  "They don't want this bad enough" or "they have been fighting for thousands of years" or "its Iran's fault". Take your pick.  The plan is such that it can drag out another couple of years, and they can keep the old mantra going that "we can't allow Iraq to fail".

In comes the dynamic duo to voice their approval of the "plan" with just enough time to get the press response so that the writers can "augment" the Presidents speech to avoid any pitfalls. 

This is the same thing they did when they leaked the "sacrifice" theme. 

Administration handlers wanted to see how that would play to the media, and it really didn't go over very well, so the ad executives that run this country re-spun the language to better suit the target market.

 Now, if I were trying to figure out how to keep the wheels on this gravy-train from falling off, I might be thinking about 2008 and just what is going to sell to a divided, angry public. 

Well, divisiveness didn't work last time. 

Carl Roves' strategy of calling the Democrats "terrorists" didn't seem to work.  In fact, it exposed a deep seated animosity toward the use of that sort of desperate rhetoric. 

What does that tell you? 

It tells me that the key to victory in 2008 may just lie in a unified front.  A feel-good, "bring-back-cooperation" to the government, campaign.  Yeah, that might work.  Take advantage of the mess that they made in the first place. 

Brilliant!

 And there they are.  Side by side.  Lieberman and McCain, a pseudo democrat and a republican veteran, ready to be molded, processed, and field tested for a 2008 ticket of unity. 

It would be funny if it were the cola-wars. 

The fact that it might work, just makes it sad.

from Think Progress, here.

On Sunday night, Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) gave the Norman Podhoretz Lecture at the annual dinner of the Commentary Fund, in which he claimed that the "Democratic party has completely lost its way on foreign policy." The speech - and an "adapted" version of it published in the Wall Street Journal today - was enthusiastically received by conservatives across the board.

Conservatives were so pleased with Lieberman's broadside against his former colleagues that they are now reviving talk of him as vice presidential choice for Sen. John McCain (R-AZ).

In an editorial yesterday, the New York Sun concluded from the Commentary speech that Lieberman "would be a fabulous running mate for Mr. McCain." On Fox And Friends this morning, Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol concurred with the Sun, saying that "after seeing Joe Lieberman's speech Sunday night," he really wonders whether McCain will pick him.

This isn't the first time that a Lieberman speech attacking liberals has inspired Kristol to suggest him for vice president.

In Nov. 2007, after Lieberman lashed outat "left-wing blogs," Kristol penned a Weekly Standard editorial declaring that the eventual Republican nominee should "offer him the vice presidency." Former Bush adviser Peter Wehner quickly endorsedKristol's thinking on the National Review's blog, calling it "an intriguing idea" that would "scramble the political chessboard."

In January, McCain appeared open to the idea of picking Lieberman, telling the Wall Street Journal that "he'd be a great partner in any endeavor."

The investment followed a recent foray into the lucrative sector by another Singapore investment company, Temasek Holdings, and came as oil traded at unprecedented prices.

GIC said yesterday it met AEI late last year when the American firm was seeking to raise capital.

A spokesman said GIC 'sees it as an opportunity to make a substantial investment in AEI until the American firm achieves a stock exchange listing'.

He added that the investment would help GIC gain exposure to the growing energy infrastructure markets of the developing world, the focus of AEI's business.

GIC Special Investments, GIC's private equity arm, purchased the shares from AEI and some of its shareholders.

Mr George Kay, vice-president of GIC Special Investments' London-based global infrastructure group, has been appointed to AEI's board.

Privately-held AEI owns energy infrastructure businesses in several emerging markets, including China, Mexico and Argentina. Its revenues last year exceeded US$3.2 billion.

Temasek recently set up a unit to invest in energy exploration and development.

Un encapuchado entro al salón y nos dijo "Cada padrino tiene un número escrito en un listón amarrado al brazo, si alguno de ellos se esta pasando con ustedes pueden denunciarlo a nosotros el comite de orden", todos comenzaron a burlarse, como respuesta el encapuchado desenfundo un revolver que traía oculto bajo la sotana como diciendo "estamos preparados para la ocación".

Después de las breves instrucciones comenzamos a salir por parejas, la masa enardecida nos gritaba de todo, el primer paso fue ingresar a la pileta que estaba preparada para la ocasión con agua sucia mezclada con jugo de cebollas y ajo, los padrinos a un lado de la pileta nos echaban agua con la manos, todos los nuevos estábamos desorientados no sabíamos para donde ir, algunos no podían salir pues la pileta es bastante profunda, yo trataba de mantener la calma y la cabeza fría todo el tiempo, como pude avancé entre los cuerpos de mis compañeros hasta el otro extremo de la pileta(habían como 50 metidos al mismo tiempo) y me aferré fuerte a la borde para poder salir, todavía ayude a uno o dos a salir y a fuerza de gritos me hicieron correr para formarme en un grupo formado por cuatro columnas o filas una pegada de la otra, rápidamente me di cuenta de que los que estaban en las filas de las orillas eran los que más sufrían pues fácilmente los pintaban o los sacaban de su fila para algún trabajo especial. Hice lo que pude para tomar un lugar en las filas del medio de tal manera que sufriera los menos posible.

Mientras esperábamos, a los que aún estaban saliendo, los padrinos comenzaron a pintar a los de las filas de la orilla, "levanta los brazos" gritaban y luego zaz! una buena ración de creolina o violeta, otros pasaban con pintura y la vaciaban en la espalda o en el pecho, a un nuevo lo sacaron de la fila para besar un hueso que apestaba como no tienen idea. Cuando las filas fueron completadas comenzó el desfile alrededor del campus, durante el desfile nos iban diciendo lo que debíamos gritar, cuando pasamos por la rectoría la orden fue "sáquenle la madre al rector" y al instante una lluvia de insultos cayó sobre el rector y su madre, lo mismo sucedió cuando pasamos enfrente de los shukeros "sáquenle la madre a los chatos" y en enseguida todos gritaban "hijos de puta!!!!", en Medicina "pelones!! pelones!!" pues ese mismo día fue el bautizo de los de Medicina a quienes los dejaban sin pelo, cuando pasamos por Agronomía íbamos gritando "agricultores!! agricultores!!" a su vez ellos nos gritaban "Albañiles!! Albañiles!!!" y yo pensando que poca idea tienen estos sobre Ingeniería, para ellos que Ingeniería es solo Ingeniería Civil.

En fin, hubieron varios eventos que nunca olvidé, como aquel que sucedió cuando íbamos pasando por la facultad de Farmacia, unas estudiantes estaban viendo el desfile, uno de los padrinos tomo a un nuevos y le dijo "anda dale un beso a esa chava" y señalo a una, inmediatamente la chava comenzó a correr con el nuevo persiguiendola era una algarabía entre los estudiantes nuevos. Tambén había un enajenado que andaba todo el tiempo con un bate en la mano, de repente gritaba "ABAJO!!!!" y era porque ya iba corriendo con el bate extendido sobre las cabeza de los nuevos, aquel que no se agachara recibía su respectivo batazo, este tipo en especial quedó por mucho tiempo en mi lista de pendientes, me grabé bien la cara de ese imbécil porque pensaba que le iba a cobrar la cuenta después, aunque lo cierto es que al final de todo nunca cobré venganza, el asunto se enfrió y mi mayor satisfacción fue demostrarle un tiempo después que yo era superior en lo académico.

Ya al final del desfile como a unos 100 mts. de donde estaba los representantes de AEI nos hicieron rodar en el suelo, ese suelo sucio impregnado de aguas de desagüe y pintura, justo antes de esto uno de los padrinos notó que yo no iba pintado y me pinto el pecho de verde, al final del desfile recibimos nuestra contraseña de bautizo, la misma que puedes ver en la imagen que acompaña este post, nos vestimos y cada quien para su casa.

A la semana siguiente nos enteramos que en la jornada de la tarde no había habido bautizo, parece que el decano se vio obligado a suspenderlo, mando a vaciar la pileta y les informó a todos que los bautizos estaban suspendidos, la razón: durante el bautizo de la mañana fueron varios los estudiantes que resultaron con ceguera parcial debido a los químicos que habían usado para mezclar el agua con la que nos mojaban, otros tenían quemaduras en la piel debido también a los químicos, eso explica la picazón que sentía en la piel, y un estudiante más habia resultado con el tabique de la nariz quebrado debido a un batazo.

Interview with John C. Fortier, of the American Enterprise Institute, about the state of American electoral campaign, the “Al Gore factor” and the chances McCains has to become the 44^th President of the United States of America. 

A.L.H.- Prof. Fortier, Tomas Mann of Brookings Institution in Washington has said that the situation for Republicans does not look good as it is, what do you think about it?

J.C.F. - I think Tom Mann is right that the overall climate is not good for Republicans in 2008, but I think he underestimates McCain's strengths and Obama's weaknesses.  At least the way that I see it is that McCain has the personal qualities that can make up for the party advantage for Democrats. 

A.L.H. - How about McCain’s chances to become the President? And what about the Congress?

J.C.F. - Not sure if he will win, but he should be able to make the race competitive.  Congress is another story, however.  Democrats are likely to gain in both houses.

A.L.H. - How do you feel about the “Al Gore factor”?

J.C.F. - I don't think that Al Gore will be much of a factor.  It is still a close race between Obama and Clinton, but the great likelihood is that Obama wins a clear, but close victory.  In that case, Gore and other party leaders will rally behind Obama, but it will not be particularly controversial, as Obama will be seen by most as the clear winner. 

A.L.H. - But what if Obama will end up with no chances to win before November?

J.C. F. - If somehow, Obama were to collapse soon, then Hillary Clinton might make it much closer and there would be real confusion in the party and then Gore and others might play a more substantial role.  But the likelihood of the Obama collapse scenario is pretty small.

A.L.H. - Let’s get back to McCain: which scenario do you envision for him if the race between Obama and Clinton becomes even closer than this, can it be an advantage for the Republican candidate?

J.C.F. - I do think that the tough race between Clinton and Obama helps McCain a bit.  There is a certain negativity and Obama and Clinton have been forced to take more divisive positions than they would have had one of them won the race early. 

A.L.H. - In order for McCain to benefit from this scenario, how long do you think the close race between the two democratic candidates should last?

J.C.F. - Unless we have such a close race that Democrats are fighting about it until the convention, I suspect that the wounds will heal.  So it is of modest benefit to McCain.  A really divisive end to the Democratic race would be more helpful to him, but is less likely.

The name of my blog developed out of an inside joke with a good friend, who uses the word "ninja" interchangeably with "master." (For example, "You're a ninja at gardening.") I hope to one day be a PR Ninja. PR ninjas are not necessarily secretive in how they perform PR.

I wrote a lengthy narrative on my experiences related my blog's topics but decided to scrap it altogether for two reasons: I'm trying to not write 1,700-word blog posts, and almost nobody wants to read that many words about me. If you want the full version, just ask me through one medium or another, but here's a summary of my qualifications:

University of Oregon student to graduate June 2008:

• Major in Journalism: Public Relations in the School of Journalism and Communication (SOJC)
• Minor in Arts Administration: Community Arts in the School of Architecture and Allied Arts - This would be my full major if it was offered.
• Study Abroad at The Central University for Nationalities in Beijing, China

Related positions:

• American English Institute - tutor
• UO Public Relations Student Society of America (PRSSA) - Regional Activity Director*, Special Events Chair, Bateman Case Study Competition team member 
• Downtown Initiative for the Visual Arts (DIVA) in Eugene, Ore. - marketing and public relations intern
• UO International Student Orientation 2006 and 2007 - volunteer
• Seattle Theatre Group in Seattle, Wash. - marketing and public relations intern
• International Week and Night 2007 presented by the UO International Student Association - publicity committee head
• The Hult Center for the Performing Arts in Eugene, Ore. - marketing and public relations intern
• GSMF International in Accra, Ghana through the SOJC's Media in Ghana program - public relations intern

Conferences attended:

• Leadership Summit 2008 presented by the Holden Leadership Center
• Public Relations Career Jumpstart 2008 presented by Puget Sound Public Relations Society of America (PRSA)
• Northwest Student Leadership Conference (NWSLC) 2007
• PRSSA National Conference 2006 and 2007
• Oregon LeaderShape 2007 presented by the Holden Leadership Center
• Nonprofit Nirvana 2007 presented by Greater Oregon PRSA and Willamette Valley American Marketing Association (AMA)
• PRSSA National Assembly 2007 (as Chapter Delegate)

Με επεισόδια ξεκίνησαν οι φοιτητικές εκλογές το πρωί σε πολλά πανεπιστήμια της χώρας.

Στο Αριστοτέλειο Πανεπιστήμιο Θεσσαλονίκης, εισέβαλε ομάδα κουκουλοφόρων που προκάλεσε υλικές ζημιές σε αμφιθέατρο της Κτηνιατρικής και έκαψε ψηφοδέλτια με αποτέλεσμα να χρειαστεί η παρέμβαση της πυροσβεστικής για να σβήσει τη φωτιά η οποία είχε αρχίσει να εξαπλώνεται.

Τα ψηφοδέλτια ωστόσο αντικαταστάθηκαν και η εκλογική διαδικασία συνεχίζεται ομαλά σε άλλο αμφιθέατρο της Σχολής.

Μικροεπεισόδια σημειώθηκαν το βράδυ της Τρίτης και στο Πολυτεχνείο, όταν ομάδα αγνώστων εισέβαλε σε προεκλογική εκδήλωση, κατεβάζοντας πανώ και αφίσες των παρατάξεων.

Με περίπου μισή ώρα καθυστέρηση ξεκίνησε η εκλογική διαδικασία σε δύο τμήματα στο πανεπιστήμιο Μακεδονίας εξαιτίας ελλείψεων σε ψηφοδέλτια, ενώ ομαλά διεξάγεται η ψηφοφορία στο ΤΕΙ Θεσσαλονίκης.

Οι παρατάξεις εκτιμούν ότι η προσέλευση των φοιτητών θα κινηθεί στα περσινά επίπεδα και θα κορυφωθεί κατά τις μεσημβρινές και απογευματινές ώρες.

Οι κάλπες θα κλείσουν στις 20.00, ενώ δεν αποκλείεται το ενδεχόμενο μικρής παράτασης στις σχολές που αντιμετώπισαν προβλήματα ή εκεί όπου υπάρχει μεγάλη προσέλευση φοιτητών.

Στις περσινές εκλογές, πρώτη δύναμη είχε αναδειχθεί η ΔΑΠ (37.6%), δεύτερη η ΠΑΣΠ (25%), τρίτη η ΠΚΣ (13,2%) ενώ ακολούθησαν η ΕΑΑΚ (7%), η Ένωση Ανεξάρτητων Φοιτητών και λοιπές παρατάξεις. Σύμφωνα με στοιχεία των φοιτητικών παρατάξεων, πέρσι ψήφισαν 96.722 φοιτητές στα ΑΕΙ και 47.541 σπουδαστές στα ΤΕΙ.

Newsroom ΔΟΛ, με πληροφορίες από ΑΠΕ-ΜΠΕ

[via, video via]

Οι φοιτητές και οι σπουδαστές των Ανώτατων και των Τεχνολογικών Εκπαιδευτικών Ιδρυμάτων της χώρας ψηφίζουν από τις 8 το πρωί για την ανάδειξη των εκπροσώπων τους στους συλλόγους και στα διοικητικά όργανα των ΑΕΙ και των ΤΕΙ.

Σε ήρεμο κλίμα διεξάγονται οι φοιτητικές εκλογές στην Αθήνα. Αργά το μεσημέρι, στη Νομική Σχολή Αθηνών δεκάδες φοιτητές πηγαινοέρχονταν. Τα μεγάφωνα στη διαπασών, με σύγχρονη μουσική και μοντέρνα τραγούδια. Τα τραπεζάκια με το έντυπο υλικό των παρατάξεων ήταν γεμάτα. Πηγαδάκια φοιτητών. Συζητήσεις. Ολα έδειχναν ότι σήμερα είναι ξεχωριστή ημέρα για τους φοιτητές, που ψηφίζουν για την ανάδειξη των αντιπροσώπων τους στα συμβούλια των σχολών τους.

Εξω από το αμφιθέατρο του πρώτου ορόφου μια ομάδα φοιτητών ήταν γύρω από το τραπεζάκι της ΔΑΠ-ΝΔΦΚ που για 21 χρόνια έρχεται πρώτη στις εκλογές τόσο στα Πανεπιστήμια, όσο και στα ΤΕΙ. Η Αναστασία Χρόνη μιλάει στους δημοσιογράφους για τις εκλογές και αναφέρει ότι οι φοιτητές με την ψήφο τους θα δείξουν ποια παράταξη προτιμούν με βάση την παρουσία και το έργο της στις σχολές. Γι' αυτό, άλλωστε, φιλοδοξεί όχι μόνον να κατακτήσει η ΔΑΠ για άλλη μια χρονιά την πρωτιά αλλά και να αυξήσει τα ποσοστά της.

Η προσέλευση στο αμφιθέατρο το μεσημέρι ήταν κανονική, όπως λένε οι φοιτητές. Οπως ακριβώς και τα προηγούμενα χρόνια την ίδια ώρα. Αλλωστε, οι περισσότεροι φοιτητές πηγαίνουν να ψηφίσουν από το μεσημέρι και μετά, ενώ το πρωί πηγαίνουν συνήθως όσοι εργάζονται. Η αγωνία πάντως όλων των παρατάξεων είναι η προσέλευση και γι' αυτή αγωνίστηκαν όλες τις προηγούμενες ημέρες.

Στο τραπεζάκι της ΠΑΣΠ, ο Αναστάσιος Σκλάβος, πιστεύει ότι η παράταξη του θα εισπράξει και φέτος ανοδικά ποσοστά με τα οποία οι φοιτητές, όπως λέει, θα στείλουν το μήνυμά τους για το ποια κατάσταση θέλουν στα πανεπιστήμια αλλά και στην κοινωνία γενικότερα. Οσο για τα όσα λέγονται περί ανόδου του Δικτύου που πρόσκειται στον ΣΥΡΙΖΑ, ο φοιτητής εύχεται να υπάρχει άνοδος σε όλες τις αριστερές παρατάξεις, γιατί, όπως λέει, και εμείς αριστεροί είμαστε.

Λίγο πιο πέρα, βρίσκονται εκπρόσωποι του Δικτύου, η παράταξη που πρόσκειται στο ΣΥΡΙΖΑ. Ο Φώτης Παλαμιώτης έχει ακούσει αυτά που λέγονται περί προσδοκιών ανόδου και στα πανεπιστήμια, λόγω της ανόδου των ποσοστών του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ γενικότερα. Ωστόσο, κατά τον φοιτητή, η δουλειά που γίνεται στα πανεπιστήμια έχει μεγάλη σημασία.

Με τον εκπρόσωπο της Πανσπουδαστικής συζητούμε το θέμα της μη έκδοσης κοινών αποτελεσμάτων. Ο Χρήστος Σαλάμης αποδέχεται ότι υπάρχει αυτό το φαινόμενο, αν και η παράταξή του, όπως λέει, έχει κάνει πολλές προσπάθειες να εξαλειφθεί.

Στο τραπεζάκι της Γένοβα ο Κώστας Τόδουλος, μιλάει για τη συνεργασία της Κίνησης με την Ενιαία Αριστερή Ανεξάρτητη Κίνηση (ΕΑΑΚ) και πιστεύει ότι η ενότητα αυτή θα έχει αντανάκλαση και στο αποτέλεσμα των εκλογών.

Οι κάλπες αναμένεται να κλείσουν με τη δύση του ηλίου, όπου όμως υπάρχουν φοιτητές που δεν θα έχουν ψηφίσει μέχρι εκείνη την ώρα, θα δίδεται παράταση ώσπου να ολοκληρωθεί η ψηφοφορία. Αποτελέσματα σε μεγάλες σχολές είναι δύσκολο να βγουν μέχρι τα μεσάνυχτα. Μέχρι τότε, θα υπάρχουν αποτελέσματα από μικρότερες σχολές και κυρίως της Περιφέρειας.

Με επεισόδια ξεκίνησαν οι φοιτητικές εκλογές το πρωί στο Αριστοτέλειο Πανεπιστήμιο Θεσσαλονίκης.Ομάδα περίπου 20 ατόμων, φορώντας κράνη, εισέβαλε σε αμφιθέατρο της Κτηνιατρικής, λίγο πριν ξεκινήσει η εκλογική διαδικασία (8.00 π.μ.), έκαψε ψηφοδέλτια και κάλπες και προκάλεσε ζημιές στην αίθουσα.

Σύμφωνα με τον αντιπρύτανη Οικονομικών, Ανδρέα Γιαννακουδάκη, η φωτιά εξαπλώθηκε στην ψευδοροφή του αμφιθέατρου, καταστρέφοντας τμήμα ηλεκτρολογικών εγκαταστάσεων, ωστόσο κατασβέστηκε άμεσα από την πυροσβεστική υπηρεσία.

Πάντως, τα ψηφοδέλτια αντικαταστάθηκαν και η εκλογική διαδικασία συνεχίζεται ομαλά, παρά την καθυστέρηση, σε άλλο αμφιθέατρο της Σχολής.

Μικροεπεισόδια σημειώθηκαν και χθες το βράδυ στο Πολυτεχνείο, όταν ομάδα αγνώστων εισέβαλε σε προεκλογική εκδήλωση, κατεβάζοντας πανώ και αφίσες των παρατάξεων.

Με περίπου μισή ώρα καθυστέρηση ξεκίνησε η εκλογική διαδικασία σε δύο τμήματα στο πανεπιστήμιο Μακεδονίας (ΠΑΜΑΚ), εξαιτίας ελλείψεων σε ψηφοδέλτια, ενώ ομαλά διεξάγεται η ψηφοφορία στο ΤΕΙ Θεσσαλονίκης.

Οι παρατάξεις εκτιμούν ότι η προσέλευση των φοιτητών θα κινηθεί στα περσινά επίπεδα και θα κορυφωθεί κατά τις μεσημβρινές και απογευματινές ώρες.

Οι κάλπες θα κλείσουν στις 8.00 μ.μ., ενώ δεν αποκλείεται το ενδεχόμενο μικρής παράτασης στις σχολές που αντιμετώπισαν προβλήματα ή εκεί όπου υπάρχει μεγάλη προσέλευση φοιτητών.

Η καταμέτρηση των ψήφων θα ξεκινήσει αμέσως μόλις κλείσουν οι κάλπες, ενώ αναμένεται, όπως τα τελευταία τέσσερα χρόνια, και φέτος οι εκπρόσωποι των παρατάξεων σε ΑΠΘ και ΠΑΜΑΚ να ανακοινώσουν κοινά αποδεκτά αποτελέσματα.

Στις περσινές εκλογές, πρώτη δύναμη είχε αναδειχθεί η ΔΑΠ (42,6%), δεύτερη η ΠΑΣΠ (27,02%), τρίτη η ΠΚΣ (13,2%) και ακολούθησαν η ΕΑΑΚ, η Ενωση Ανεξάρτητων Φοιτητών και λοιπές παρατάξεις. Συνολικά είχαν ψηφίσει 22.334 φοιτητές σε 36 Συλλόγους.

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Δύσκολο να γίνουν εκτιμήσεις. Αυτό είναι το συμπέρασμα από τις πανεπιστημιακές σχολές για τις φετινές φοιτητικές εκλογές. Μάλιστα, ίσως αυτή η χρονιά να είναι εκείνη που κρύβει τα περισσότερα ερωτήματα από κάθε άλλη εκλογική αναμέτρηση τα τελευταία χρόνια.

Ένα βασικό θέμα στα φοιτητικά πηγαδάκια αποτελεί η πορεία της Αριστερής Ενότητας (Αρ.Εν.) και εάν η «χειμαρρώδης» -δημοσκοπικά- άνοδος του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ πρόκειται να αποτυπωθεί και στις κάλπες των πανεπιστημίων.

Η αισιοδοξία πάντως δεν λείπει από την Αρ.Εν. -η οποία συγκροτήθηκε πέρσι από τις δυνάμεις του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ- μιας και δηλώνουν ότι φέτος η παρουσία της είναι σε πολλές περισσότερες σχολές και το περσινό -κατά προσέγγιση- 4% θα αυξηθεί.

Παράλληλα, όπως σημειώνουν φοιτητές, το κλίμα είναι λιγότερο πολωμένο σε σχέση με πέρσι όταν οι εκλογές έγιναν στον απόηχο των μαζικότατων κινητοποιήσεων ενάντια στο νόμο-πλαίσιο και το άρθρο 16 πράγμα το οποίο μπορεί να αποτελέσει και τροχοπέδη στην προσέλευση των φοιτητών.

Βέβαια, το 2007 οι προσδοκίες ήταν πολύ μεγάλες, όμως, αν και υπήρξε άνοδος στη συμμετοχή, αυτή δεν έφτασε επ' ουδενί τις αισιόδοξες προβλέψεις.

Επιπρόσθετα, εύλογο ερώτημα αποτελεί εάν τα ΕΑΑΚ -η παράταξη η οποία πέρσι σημείωσε τη μεγαλύτερη άνοδο κατά γενική ομολογία- θα μπορέσει να διατηρήσει το αυξημένο κατά 1,5 μονάδα ποσοστό του 7,5% ή εάν θα έχει απώλειες προς την Αριστερή Ενότητα.

Πάντως, φέτος υποστηρίζεται και από την «Πρωτοβουλία Γένοβα» η οποία πέρσι απέσπασε το 0,5 περίπου των φοιτητών.

Φέτος, δεν έλειψαν οι διαβουλεύσεις σε κάποιες σχολές για κοινό ψηφοδέλτιο των αριστερών κομμάτων –εξαιρουμένης της Πανσπουδαστικής ΚΣ (ΚΚΕ)- αλλά απ’ ότι φαίνεται μάταια... Η ΠΚΣ τη Δευτέρα παρέθεσε συνέντευξη Τύπου στην οποία κάλεσε όλες τις παρατάξεις να εκδώσουν «όλα τα αποτελέσματα από όλες τις σχολές».

Αναφορικά με τη φιλοκυβερνητική ΔΑΠ αναμένεται να διατηρήσει και πάλι τα σκήπτρα στις περισσότερες σχολές αν και πέρσι βγήκε κατά τι μειωμένη. Η ΠΑΣΠ (ΠΑΣΟΚ) προβλέπεται να κινηθεί και αυτή στα περσινά ποσοστά γύρω στο 25%.

Η εκλογική διαδικασία θα ξεκινήσει στις 7:00 ή στις 8:00 το πρωί ανάλογα με τη σχολή και οι κάλπες θα κλέισουν με τη δύση του Ηλίου.

Σύμφωνα με στοιχεία των φοιτητικών παρατάξεων, πέρσι ψήφισαν 96.722 φοιτητές στα ΑΕΙ και 47.541 σπουδαστές στα ΤΕΙ.

Να σημειωθεί πως τα ποσοστά είναι κατά προσέγγιση καθώς δεν εκδίδονται κοινά αλλά η κάθε παραταξη τα δικά της. «Παράδοση», που αναμένεται να τηρηθεί και φέτος...

Newsroom ΔΟΛ

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Glenn Greenwald has more information on his blog about Kagan.

[A]dvocates see broader economic benefits from lowering tax rates, which is one of the reasons the concept has reappeared as a point of contention in this year’s election campaign, in an amended form.

“What really happens is that the economy grows more vigorously when you lower tax rates,” said Kevin Hassett, an adviser to the presumptive Republican nominee, John McCain, and the director for economic policy studies at the conservative American Enterprise Institute. “It is beyond the reach of economic science to explain precisely why that happens, but it does.”

Except, of course, that it does no such thing and never has.

In the 1980s, though, during the initial era of supply-side tax cuts, per capita revenue from personal income taxes, adjusted for inflation, rose an average of just 0.7 percent annually throughout the Reagan presidency, according to the White House Office of Management and Budget.

That was far below what turned out to be an average annual increase of 6.5 percent in the eight years of the Clinton administration, when tax rates at the high end of the income ladder were raised.

Since 2001, the annual per capita revenue from income taxes fell 1 percent under President Bush even though tax collections picked up sharply starting in 2005. The budget surplus Mr. Bush inherited turned into a deficit.

The Stockman-born conviction of the Reagan years that tax revenues would magically grow after you cut taxes has never been seriously questioned by any conservative economist despite the acres of evidence over the past 3 decades proving that it's all poppycock. We have been led into an economic dystopia by people who, like supporters of the Iraq war, have never been right about anything.

Why did we ever listen to these people? More importantly, why are we still listening to them when they've been so far off-base? We knew - people made jokes about it at the time - that Reagan's contradictory formulation made no sense, that raising taxes by cutting taxes was a bonehead idea. Yet we voted for this peabrain twice, voted once for Peabrain II, got burned, and then came back to vote twice more for Peabrain the Third even though the guy wno came between P2 & P3 had pretty much proved that supply-side was applesauce.

“If you are cutting taxes without offsetting the cuts through reductions in spending, then all you are doing is increasing the debt and postponing the taxes,” said Jason Furman, director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution, and also a policy adviser to the Democratic presidential candidates.

Well, duh.

What in gawd's name is wrong with us? Why don't we - can't we - learn?

It's a puzzlement.

Here’s where this becomes a true blog.  I know only part of the story and hope that you can add what you know to what happened, or correct what I remember! . . . . the full story is more complex than what I know without doing a lot more research, so this is a work-in-progress. . . .

The role of think tanks during a presidential transition period has grown in value over the past 30 years.  The first big public splash of a think tank was the Heritage Foundation’s “Mandate for Leadership” which was prepared in anticipation of the 1980 election of Ronald Reagan.  It was seen as influencing the agenda of the early Reagan Administration.  By 1988, the Government Accountability Office added its voice, issuing a series of transition reports about the policy and management challenges facing the government and specific agencies. 

Also in 1988 the Council for Excellence in Government began publishing what it called “The Prune Book.”  This is a play on the so-called official “Plum Book” which is a quadrennial list of all senior-level policy posts, including all political appointees.  The Prune Book (which they view as experienced plums) focused on job profiles of several dozen of the most difficult sub-cabinet jobs in terms of management challenges.  The Plum Book lists job titles but provides no information about the jobs themselves.  The Prune Book was designed to inform the incoming Administration about key management jobs and the environment and issues the prospective office holder would need to address, in hopes that the new President would pair the rights skills and ability to these crucial jobs.

By the time of the 2000 election, there were a series of think tank efforts devoted to management improvement issues.  I’ll review three of the most prominent that I was aware of.  In addition, The Presidential Transition Act of 2000 resulted in the General Services Administration sponsoring a website that provided basic information about each agency for incoming appointees.   That same Act set aside funds for the incoming Administration to sponsor orientation training for new political appointees.  This training was organized by the Council for Excellence in Government.

The American Enterprise Institute, sponsored a major research effort, “Transition to Governing,” in conjunction with the Brookings Institution.  The effort had several elements.  One focused on around improving the political appointment process, in part by putting forms on-line.  The effort resulted in some fine-tuning of the appointment process – not the major overall envisioned.  The effort also tracked the progress of appointments for the first year of the Bush Administration.

A second element was the White House Interview Program, which also received support from the National Archives and the Pew Charitable Trusts.  This program, led by Dr. Martha Kumar and supported by several dozen academics, was devoted to oral histories and summaries of the historical evolution of key White House posts such as the chief of staff and the director of communications.  The results of these efforts were provided to both pre-election transition teams to help them understand the historical context of the different jobs and how they evolved over time.  This effort is being updated in 2008.

Brookings also sponsored an encyclopedic effort by Brad Patterson, “The White House Staff:  Inside the West Wing and Beyond” which describes what the 5,900 people in 125 different offices do.  It is largely an operators guide to the organization and management of the Executive Office of the President.  This volume is being updated in 2008.

The Council for Excellence in Government developed a 2000 version of its Prune Book.  But it also contributed in several other ways.  It sponsored a forum in mid-2000 among key government, non-profit, and industry officials that focused on the development of an electronic government initiatives for the next Administration.  By creating some consensus, the electronic government agenda got off to a fairly quick start once the Bush Administration took office.  Similarly, Management Concepts, a for-profit training company, sponsored a forum comprised of various stakeholders to develop a civil service reform agenda.  The Council was also asked to organize and lead the Bush transition’s political orientation training for the new Administration, as well.

Other groups also offered management insights and sponsored events.  For example, the Government Performance Coalition, comprised of about two dozen “good government” groups, sponsored a series of seminars on key management capacity issues – performance management, human capital, electronic government, etc.  It summarized its key advice in a short memo and followed it with a short book: “Memos to the President:  Management Advice from the Nation’s Top Public Administrators,” containing a series of essays

The predecessor to the IBM Center, the PWC Endowment for The Business of Government, sponsored a parallel book, “Memos to the President:  Management Advice from the Nation’s Top CEOs.”   The Performance Coalition also did a follow-on report in 2005, entitled: “Getting Results:   A Guide for Federal Leaders and Managers.”

* * * *

Combined, these various efforts contributed to a baseline of information and history that helped the new Administration as it took office.  As the 2008 presidential campaigns develop pre-transition teams, think tanks are beginning to develop their insights for the next President. 

...
Economic backwardness explains the problem in part. Generally, the most powerful correlate of democracy is higher per capita income. The overwhelming majority of countries where citizens enjoy an annual income of $5,000 or more are democracies. Few Arab countries have reached this level. But this factor still falls short as an explanation. For one thing, while a few Arab countries with wealth from oil or commerce have passed the $5,000 mark, none of them are electoral democracies (although a few, including Bahrain and Kuwait, as well as non-oil countries such as Jordan, are ranked among the "partly free.") Furthermore, although much of the Arab world is poor, it is not as poor as sub-Saharan Africa, where per capita income is less than half of that of the Arab states. Yet democracy has begun to take hold in sub-Saharan Africa, where half of the 48 countries are electoral democracies.

Islam may be a second explanatory factor. Of the 47 states in the world with Muslim majorities, only nine, or 19 percent, are democracies. On the other hand, of 146 non-Muslim states, 114, more than three-quarters, are democratic. The impression of tension between Islam and democracy is reinforced by the fact that the only historic example of an Arab democracy is Lebanon, between the time it achieved independence in 1945 and the time it imploded into civil war in 1975, largely due to the pressure of foreign forces. What distinguished Lebanon in the Arab world was that, during its democratic era, it was largely a Christian-led nation.
...

It is a hard life here.  I walked through the market last night, it’s an open-air market much like you’d see in Mexico, with each vendor selling fruits, veggies, live crabs, raw meat, toiletries, etc. I want to just reach out and buy something from everyone. But of course that’s not the answer. It has to be a sustainable system from within, and the capital from Kiva to augment that system is a much more effective jumpstart and monitored much more closely than if I just go around buying stuff I don’t need!

I sat with the HR women yesterday to count the money from the markets, and talk about their processes. There are two different types of loans, the individual loan and a group loan.

The group loan is for women only, and it is coordinated in groups that start out as 10, and end up around 5-6 women. The women self-select their group, so that they determine to whom they will be accountable. Every woman in the group becomes responsible for the entire payment due each week, so that if someone is missing, the others must make up that amount and be reimbursed later. No three people from the same family are allowed in the same group. This is for many reasons- if there is a funeral in the family, then all three would leave at the same time, leaving the others in the lurch for that week. Or even worse, once they’d taken their share, they could just leave period.

There are two different ways of splitting up the group loans. One way is that one woman at a time gets the whole sum of money, and they take turns. The other is there is a total sum, and it is divided between the women equally. They use an evaluation form on many variables, including how many children each woman has, number of years experience in her field, if she has a criminal record, etc. Each woman fills out this form, and it is rated for risk. They add up the risk points for the group, and determine the loan size, and how it is split among the women. The majority of AE&I’s loans are individual, but the group loan is a good way for a woman to get started and develop credit with the institution. She can then transition to an individual loan. In talking with women in the markets, many of them started with a group loan, but much prefer the individual loans they are now doing. This is for the clear reason that when other members of the group defaulted, they had to pick up the amount.

If the woman hasn’t established her credit in a group loan, then before she can take an individual loan, she must start with a savings account. They meet with the potential client and talk to them about the business, what they would use a loan for, their family circumstances, etc. They explain to them that before they can get a loan, they must open a savings account and contribute a small amount to that savings account on a daily basis. The client determines how much they will contribute to this savings account. Most choose to contribute between 50 cents and two dollars per day.

After three months of diligent payments, AE&I adds up the amount. At any time during those three months if the person wants to withdraw their money, they can do it. But if they leave the money in savings, that serves as the collateral for their first loan, and they can be loaned that exact amount. Only their first loan has this collateral structure. And this is what I find interesting. This first loan is not the transformational loan- it is the screening process for quality clients. And these clients continue to work and expand their business, taking progressively larger loans in small increments. Then, once they feel confident, they can take a relatively larger sized loan, and use it to significantly upgrade their business. It is in this way that AE&I has cultivated a portfolio of trustworthy and thriving clients.

Savings and loan payments are tracked in a passbook that the borrower keeps. They pay 1000 CFA (about $2) for the passbook, so that they are careful not to lose it. When the clients make their deposit each day, they receive a hologrammed sticker for that payment in the passbook. There are different colored stickers, each with a different monetary value. This makes it easy to add up the amount contributed each month by counting up the stickers, and multiplying by the value of their color. The stickers allow borrowers, even those who cannot read and write, to track their savings, withdrawals, and loan payments easily.

In a country where corruption claims so much money, AE&I has set up a strong infrastructure to protect their clients and ensure the quality of each of their loans. Each transaction is documented in several steps, with cross checks between the computer system and handwritten logbooks. The Internal Auditor tracks the amount of stickers that are used by each loan officer on a weekly basis, and matches that number with the deposits and loan payments. And the Internal Auditor also visits clients in the market to follow up on late loan payments, and also spot checks to see that the passbooks match the loan records at the office. Microfinance is such a simple concept, but seeing the operations in the field has given me a deep appreciation for the complexity of its execution.

The Client Passbook:

The blogosphere of the Middle East is relatively small in size and exists in an enviroment of stated-controlled media and autocratic government. Can bloggers provide a viable channel for political activism, cultural alternatives and meaningful dissent? Will self-preservation require crippling self-censorship? Find out Monday (February 4, 2008) 10:15  AM -- Noon at "The Battle for Cyberspace: Blogging and Dissidence in the Middle East" at AEI.

Speakers:

 Tony Badran is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and contributes to the FDD blog.  His blog Across the Bay reports and comments on political developments in Lebanon and Syria, and he edits the Syria Opposition Portal.

Hassan Mneimneh, executive director of the Iraq Foundation, is also director of documentation projects for the Baghdad-based Iraq Memory Foundation, which documents atrocities of Saddam Hussein's regime. Previously, he was co-directed the Iraq Research and Documentation Project at Harvard. He is a regular contributor to the London-based Arabic newspaper al-Hayat.

Michael Rubin, resident scholar at AEI, does research in Arab democracy, Kurdish society, and the domestic politics of Iran, Iraq, and Turkey. He was a political adviser to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Baghdad (2003 to 2004) and a staff advisor for Iran and Iraq in the Office of the Secretary of Defense during 2002-2004. He is currently the editor of the Middle East Quarterly. He blogs at The Corner on National Review Online.

Arash Sigarchi is a freelance journalist and blogger born in northern Iran.  He was editor-in-chief of the Iranian daily Gilan Emrooz (Gilan Today) from 2000 until January 2005, when he was imprisoned by Iranian security forces and sentenced to fourteen years in prison for publishing censored material in the paper and on his blog. He was granted a medical furlough from prison in January 2007. Mr. Sigarchi received the 2007 Hellman/Hammett grant, awarded by Human Rights Watch to writers who have been victims of political persecution.

Location:
Wohlstetter Conference Center, Twelfth Floor
American Enterprise Institute
1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20036
Directions here.

More Information and online registration here.

Questions: Jeff Azarva
Phone: 202-862-5926
JAzarva@aei.org

Image (from a 19th Century poster) by Mike Licht.

Get it here. Attribution: Mike Licht, NotionsCapital.com

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That first night we talked for a long time. Colom said she’d just moved here one month ago from the Congo (Brazzaville), to be with her mother. She misses her friends and her life in the Congo, and doesn’t know when she’ll be able to go back. Meanwhile she’s in school here, and enjoys her studies. Deborah and her brother teased each other and played around. They were both engrossed in my French grammar exercise books, and Deborah pointed out to me that it would be better if I wrote in pencil so that when I was done with the exercises perhaps someone else could use the book as well, and then it would not be wasted. She is a smart girl, and I hope we get to spend more time together. That night we played music, and had a good time together.

The next day I saw the girls, and they invited me for a visit. They came to my apt to fetch me at the specified time, and we went down to their apartment together. There I met their mother, Maman Fannie. Maman Fannie has a bright smile, and said that she’d heard the kids were very excited to meet me. While we talked, she sat and filled plastic bags with water. She has a big freezer in her living room. She filters the water from the tap through a cloth stretched across a plastic bottle and uses that as a funnel into a plastic bag. Once full, she ties the bag tight, and puts it in a pile to be loaded into the freezer for sale in the market the next day. She explained that she’d had a filter on her tap, but it broke recently and so she wasn’t able to filter the water as well. We talked about why I was here, for microfinance, something she’d never heard of. So I explained it to her. My first thought, of course, is that she is the ideal candidate for a loan. And she too had that same thought! I didn’t want to get into the technical loan process details on my own, so we agreed to meet on Tuesday and I would take her down to AE&I for her to meet with a loan officer.

From there our conversation moved from business to more personal subjects. She told me that when she first moved to Cote d’Ivoire from the Congo, she came with her husband for his job. They lived in a large house in another neighborhood. The house had eight rooms, and they had several children together. She told me that they had a housekeeper and a chauffeur. The chauffeur took the kids to school each day, and spent a good deal of time with her as well. After living with her husband in Cote d’Ivoire for several years, and over ten years of marriage, he abandoned her. The chauffeur and housekeeper arranged for him to meet a younger woman, and he left Maman Fannie to marry this other woman. He sold the house where they lived, and left her with the children, and no way to get home to Congo. Shortly after he did this, he lost his job, and left to live in France with his new wife. He never provided her any support, and has had no contact with his children since he left.

Now picture this woman sitting in front of you, filling up bags of water, and smiling- a big smile- as she tells this story. I could hardly believe it. This happened only three or four years ago. She now lives in a one bedroom apartment on the first floor of my building. In this apartment she takes care of Colom age 18, Germe age 12, Deborah age 11, and Manu age 5. While I was there, another daughter Sandrine visited, and her oldest son, Christian. (As a side note, I am not entirely clear on the exact biological or adopted relationship of each of these children. And so in my previous post I thought Colom had two children, which she does not. It seems a moot point to try and clarify these things immediately, as it doesn't affect the fact that they're all family and take care of each other as such.)

The children had all been going to high-priced private French schools in Abidjan. She could no longer afford these schools, but still she pays for every one of the children to go to a private school, and she works with them each night on their homework. Because she cannot afford to send them to the best schools, she emphasizes the importance of studying even harder so that one day they will have more opportunities. Tonight Colom took me for a walk to her school. It’s a fenced-in school, with a beautiful tree in the center of its courtyard, and a sandy play area for soccer games. The schoolgrounds were clean and well-kept. We visited her classrooms on the second floor. The classrooms have two large chalkboards along one wall, and several rows of wood desks and benches. In the warm spring air, I could smell the wood from the desks as I entered each room. Each room was a quick look into the day’s lesson. In the first room there were English sentences on the board. Next door we found Ivoirian history, and further down was a science lab with tiled desks, and kinetic Physics equations on the board.

Colom is currently in her 3rd level. I’m not entirely clear on the French system, but high school goes 6-5-4-3-2-1-Finished. So in three years she will take the Bac (the super tough French exit exam that determines where you can go to university), and apply for entrance to a university. She wants to be a lawyer. She said that there are many people in her family who have education but never went to work, or never completed school. Maman Fannie counts heavily on her to complete her studies, and pass the Bac with a good score so that she can advance herself. Then she told me that she is an orphan, that her mom died in the war in Congo. She wants to work to improve the lives of other orphans, and help them find a better life too.

I spoke with Ladji, one of my co-workers at AE&I about Maman Fannie. He said that she sounds like an ideal client- cold water sales is a very strong business model in Abidjan (because it’s hot here!!). He said that I will see what happens after she first takes one loan, pays it off, and then takes another loan and expands further... They have clients who started out with a small stand selling one vegetable who now have entire stores of merchandise. He pointed to a store the size of a New York hotel room- small, but it serves its purpose. I asked how many years that must’ve taken- and he pointed out that AE&I is only four years old. With the right person, microfinance can enable them to accomplish great things very quickly. I am looking forward to Maman Fannie’s appointment on Tuesday… and for my next eight months in Cote d’Ivoire.