The government's emergency £37bn recapitalisation of the UK banking sector will mean widespread, fundamental changes at Royal Bank of Scotland, HBOS and Lloyds TSB. Barclays, Santander and Nationwide are also acting now to increase their capital bases.
RBS
The sheer speed of RBS's decline is as dramatic as the parlous state it now finds itself in. Just a year after leading the €71bn (£56bn) acquisition of ABN Amro, the bank will be majority-owned by the UK government in return for up to £20bn of fresh capital. Chief executive Sir Fred Goodwin is carrying the can, leaving shortly and being replaced by Stephen Hester. The chairman, Sir Tom McKillop, will retire next April.

RBS will raise £5bn from the government by issuing preference shares (which are higher priority than standard shares and provide a protected dividend). These will yield 12% a year. It is also issuing £15bn of new ordinary shares at 65.5p each, which will be underwritten by the government. If the government takes up the full allocation, as expected, it will own around 60% of RBS.

RBS also admitted that it expects to suffer impairment charges and further asset write-downs in the fourth quarter of this year. Shareholders will not receive a dividend until the government's preference shares have been repaid.

It has also yielded to the government's call for an end to excessive pay. The board will not receive a bonus this year, and any bonuses earned in 2009 will be paid in shares.

Board members who are dismissed will receive a severance package which is "reasonable and perceived as fair", it added, suggesting that existing contractual obligations will no longer carry much weight.

Shares in RBS have slumped by 85% in the last year. Having changed hands for 450p a year ago, they fell to below 60p this morning.
Lloyds TSB
The £5.5bn capital injection into Lloyds TSB is tied into its takeover of HBOS. The government had agreed buy £1bn of preference shares, and Lloyds will also raise £4.5bn through a rights issue at 173.3p a share which is underwritten by the government.

Lloyds has also forced HBOS to accept a lower price. It will now pay 0.605 Lloyds shares for each HBOS share, down from 0.833 shares each. This values HBOS at around £6.9bn, although the value of the all-share offer will continue to change in the current volatile markets. Unless other investors step in, the goverment will be left owning 43.5% of the enlarged bank. Existing Lloyds shareholders will own 36.5%.

It pledged to continue using HBOS's site on The Mound as its Scottish Headquarters, to keep holding its AGM in Scotland and to continue to print Bank of Scotland notes.

Directors have been asked to take this year's bonus in shares rather than cash. Lloyds also warned that any board member that loses the confidence of the board will be dismissed "at a cost that is reasonable and perceived as fair".

Shares in Lloyds TSB have fallen around 63% in the last 12 months, down from 550p a year ago to just over 200p today.
HBOS
HBOS had little choice but to accept a lower offer from Lloyds TSB, having seen its shares plunge as much as 40% on a single day last week.

It will receive £11.5bn from the government - £3bn in preference shares that will yield 12% a year, and £8.5bn through a rights issue at 113.6p a share. The government's preference shares will be converted into Lloyds TSB shares once the merger goes through.

Britain's biggest mortgage lender also admitted that market conditions have deteriorated significantly in recent weeks. It blamed falling house prices and the problems in the credit market, warning that underlying results for 2008 will be significantly lower than previously thought.

The chief executive, Andy Hornby, and chairman, Dennis Stevenson, will both quit when the Lloyds takeover goes through, ending speculation over their futures. Both had been blamed for HBOS's demise.

Shares in HBOS have nosedived by 90% in the last year, from 880p each to just 85p today.
Barclays
The Treasury had been expected to take a stake in Barclays. However, the bank said today it hopes to raise £9.5bn in fresh capital from investors without government help.

Under a plan that has been approved by the FSA, Barclays wants to raise more than £6.5bn through a series of new share issues, underwritten by the government, and at least a further £3.5bn through scrapping its dividend and other measures.

The bank said that an "existing shareholder" had agreed in principle to take up £1bn of shares, but if the rest of the issue is not taken up then the burden is likely to fall on the taxpayer.

In a blow to shareholders, Barclays is axing its annual dividend for this year, which would have been payable in April 2009, saving £2bn. It intends to resume dividend payments in the second half of next year. The bank will save another £1.5bn through "balance sheet management" and "operational efficiencies".

If Barclays fails to raise capital from investors, it can call on the government for funding. The terms would be negotiated at the time and could be "less favourable" than those made available to other banks today, Barclays said.

Barclays also reported that it had traded "satisfactorily" in July and August. In September, profit before tax "very significantly" exceeded the monthly run rate for the first half of the year, thanks to strong contributions from global retail, commercial banking and investment banking, and strong inflows of new customers and customer deposits.

Shares in Barclays, which peaked at 769.36p in February 2007, have dropped more than 60% over the past 12 months. At the start of the year, they were worth 490.83p; this morning, they traded at 232p.
Alliance & Leicester/Abbey
Although it is not part of the UK government's rescue bid, Spanish bank Santander has agreed to invest £1bn in its UK operations. It owns Abbey and Alliance & Leicester, which were previously estimated to have a Tier 1 ratio - a measure of capital strength - of 8% at the end of the year. The injection will improve the ratios by 1.25 percentage points. Santander also recently agreed to buy Bradford & Bingley's branches and deposits.
HSBC
HSBC said it would not be seeking government help as it had strengthened its capital base last week with an equity injection of £750m. The injection, funded through the group's own resources, represented 1% of the total shareholder equity of the HSBC group.

"This fulfilled the bank's agreed commitment under the UK government scheme," said a spokesman. "We have no plans to utilise the capital being made available by the UK government." However, HSBC welcomed the government's efforts to "support the UK banking sector and restore confidence". It added that it is doing its bit to stabilise the financial markets by providing "significant amounts of liquidity" to the London sterling interbank market ­— lending around £4bn of three-month and six-month money to other banks — and said it hoped others would follow suit.
Standard Chartered
Standard Chartered bank also announced that it had met the capital requirements set out in last week's scheme and said it would continue to do so. Like HSBC, it welcomed today's deal but declined to opt into the government's recapitalisation scheme. "The group is well capitalised and highly liquid," it said in a statement. "We will continue to manage our capital proactively, raising capital when and where necessary, consistent with regulatory requirements and the growth and needs of the business.
Nationwide
Nationwide is also not turning to the government for help. Britain's biggest building society insisted today that is has no need for additional funds, but has agreed to support the government's plan by raising £500m in fresh capital.

"This is a prudent step which reflects unprecedented market conditions," said Nationwide, adding that it would raise this additional capital "through normal market channels between now and our financial year end."

Source

Shari’ah Compliant Finance Structures
Ciderle Muntaha Capital Alliance “CMCA”
www.cmcapitalalliance.com

• What kind of model is this financing based on?

The “ideal” loan structure employs a Musharakah Mutanaqisa (Diminishing Partnership) model for its Declining Balance commercial real estate finance program. More technically, this financing program is based on the Shirkat al-Milk model, which means that the bank shares ownership of the property.

The bank invests and co-owns the property through a real passive equity stake and agreement allowing the consumer to buy back a full stake in the property over a predetermined term. As long as the bank owns a stake in the property it is entitled to monthly return on investments or profit. This amount is agreed upon in the contract.

Difference: Unlike a conventional loan this is a contractual partnership where the property is co-owned with the consumer (who will consume and ultimately fully own the property while the bank only has an equity investment right.

• How expensive is this type of financing?

Most Banks that have such a product are committed to being competitive with market pricing and service standards. They price a profit rate (similar to but not interest) so that it is competitive with conventional financing. Commercial mortgage rates are often priced as a spread above the US Treasuries which is a standard benchmark for 5 yr and 10 yr commercial real estate financings in the United States.

In order to offer borrowers competitive financing alternatives, banks have purposely benched a profit return to market bench marks used to value risk in conventional financing. The UST rate is one such commonly used bench allowing us to be very competitive.

• What makes a bank product Shari’ah Compliant?

Most Banks rely on an independent Shari’ah Supervisory Board for all Shari’ah compliance matters. The scholars who sit on the Shari'ah Board are recognized experts in the fields of Shari’ah, economics, and finance and serve on the Shari'ah Boards of many of the world's leading banks and financial institutions. Some reputable board members include;

• Dr. Abdul Sattar Abu Ghuddah, Chairman, holds a PhD in Islamic Law from Al Azhar University in Cairo, Egypt, one of the world's most respected institutions of Islamic learning. Dr. Abu Ghuddah is also a member of the Shari'ah Board of the Accounting & Auditing Standards Board of Islamic Financial Institutions (AAOIFI). Dr. Abu Ghuddah teaches Islamic Law (Fiqh), Islamic studies and Arabic in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. In addition, he contributed to the compilation of the Fiqh Encyclopedia at the Ministry of 'Awqaf' (Endowments) and Islamic Affairs in Kuwait and was a member of its prestigious 'Fatwa' Board from 1982 to 1990.
His other positions currently include:
o Member, Shari'ah Board, Dow Jones Islamic Market Indexes, USA
o Member, Shari'ah Board, Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS), Switzerland
o Member, Shari'ah Board, Saudi American Bank, Saudi Arabia
o Member, Shari'ah Board, Guidance Financial Group, USA
o Member, Shari'ah Board, Accounting and Auditing Organization of
Islamic Financial Institutions (AAOIFI), Bahrain
o Member, Shari'ah Supervisory Board, First Islamic Investment Bank, Bahrain
o Member, Shari'ah Board, Meezan Bank, Pakistan

• Dr. Muhammad Imran Ashraf Usmani holds M. Phil and PhD degrees in Islamic Finance and graduated as a scholar from Jamia Darul Uloom in Karachi, Pakistan. Dr. Usmani's book, Meezan Bank's Guide to Islamic Banking, has become a standard text in understanding Islamic Banking. He is the son of the renowned Justice (Retired) Taqi Usmani, a pioneer in the field of Islamic Finance. His other positions currently include:
o Member, Shari'ah Supervisory Board, Credit Suisse Bank, Switzerland
o Member, Shari'ah Board, Lloyds TSB Bank, UK
o Member, Central Shari'ah Committee, HSBC Amanah, Global
o Shari'ah Advisor, ABN AMRO Bank, Global
o Member, Shari'ah Supervisory Board, AIG Insurance Company, USA
o Shari'ah Advisor / Member of Shari'ah Supervisory Board, Japan Bank for International Cooperation, Japan
o Shari'ah Advisor, DCD Financial Group, UK
o Shari'ah Advisor and Shari'ah Board Secretary, Guidance Financial Group, USA
o Member, Shari'ah Board, State Bank of Pakistan
o Shari'ah Advisor, Meezan Bank, Pakistan
o Member, Shari'ah Supervisory Board, Pak Kuwait Takaful Company Ltd., Pakistan
o Member, Shari'ah Board, Future Growth Equity Fund, South Africa
o Executive Director, Jamia Darul Uloom Karachi, Pakistan

• Shaikh Esam Ishaq holds a degree in Political Science from McGill University, Canada. He is currently teaching Islamic Law and Theology in Bahrain and is recognized as an emerging leader in the discipline of Islamic Finance. Shaikh Ishaq serves on the Boards of major Islamic financial institutions including Arcapita Bank, AAOIFI, and Al Baraka Islamic Bank. His other positions currently include:
o Member, Technical Committee for Interpretation and Application of Standards, Accounting and Auditing Organization of Islamic Financial Institutions (AAOIFI), Bahrain
o Member, Shari'ah Board, Arcapita Bank, USA
o Member, Shari'ah Board, Al Baraka Islamic Bank, Bahrain
o Shari'ah Advisor, Bahrain Development Bank, Bahrain
o Member, Shari'ah Board, Meezan Bank, Pakistan
o Member, Consultative Council, Kingdom of Bahrain (First Legislative turn)
o Director, Middle East Traders, Bahrain
o Director, Zawaya Property Development, Bahrain

The scholars who are on the Shari’ah Supervisory Board act as customer advocates and ensure that Bank contracts adhere to industry Shari’ah standards that have been set by multilateral standards bodies such as Accounting and Auditing Organization of Islamic Financial Institutions (AAOIFI), Bahrain and the Islamic Financial Services Board (IFSB), Bahrain.

• Do Shari’ah Compliant Banks give loans?

They don’t give loans. They co-invest in properties and become a co-owner in real property in every transaction. A conventional bank or financial institution loans you money and charges you interest on that money. In a Shari’ah Compliant Structure the bank actually acquires a portion of the property. Their profit is based on profit rate.

• Banks will price financing on the US Treasury? How is that Shari’ah Compliant?

The US Treasury yield is a standard index utilized to measure risk in the US mortgage market. A Shari’ah Compliant structure in the U.S. will be a US based financier, and will price return on investment using the US Treasury yield as a benchmark. They will use the UST to calculate the profit their borrowers will pay for the use of the portion of the property the bank owns (use fee). They will not charge interest (riba) because they don’t loan money.

• The bank is charging a Profit Rate (fixed rate) - that's interest!

The bank uses a Profit Rate to establish the amount the consumer will pay for use of the banks share of the property. This is not interest. Interest is an increased return of money for money. The fact that they have a fixed profit avoids the incursion of gharar (undue uncertainty) into the contract. This allows the customer to know exactly what the payments will be in advance. This benefits both the customer and the bank by allowing clear forecasting of future cash flows.

• Can funds come from non Islamic sources?

Just as in any normal business transaction a partner can be from any religion, or no religion, at all. As long as the Islamic rules of contract are observed and all terms are agreed to by all the concerned parties there is no bar on funding coming from non-Islamic sources. The more important issue is making sure that there is no riba in the transaction. A Shari’ah Board will review the bank’s contract to make sure this is not the case.

• Can profit rates be variable?

A profit rate can be variable provided that the parties agree to rate adjustments in advance or agree to make rate adjustments based on an identifiable index with a floor and ceiling (in order to avoid gharar or undue uncertainty).

• What happens if a borrower/consumer sells the property before the financing is paid off?

If a customer wishes to sell the property before the term of the financing is complete, the bank will agree to release its ownership in the property provided that an early buyout consideration (similar to yield maintenance in conventional financings) is paid to the bank. This is due as a result of the early termination of the contract. After paying the acquisition balance and early buyout consideration (yield maintenance) the bank no longer has any ownership interest in the property. As a result any amount remaining from the sale of the property to a third party is kept by the client.

• What type of properties can be financed using this structure?

Most Shari’ah Compliant banks will finance income producing properties. Currently, the programs in the U.S. focus on the following property types:

Eligible Property Types

Multi-Family
Hotels and Motels

Distribution
Office

Mixed Use
Retail

Light Industrial
Single Tenant/Owner-Occupied (case-by-case basis)

• How long can the term of financing be?

The term of the financing can be 10 yrs or 5 yrs

• Can the borrower/consumer repay the financing early?

Yes, they can repay their financing early. However, the repayment will have to be in full and there will be a charge for the early termination of the contract.

• How long will the approval process take?

Base on Banks active in the U.S. and in England, the process usually takes between 24-72 hours to prescreen a property and a customer’s credit score. Once they receive all the required information such as:

o Property rent rolls
o Historical operating statements
o Detailed property description
o Consumer's Personal Financial Statement

They can typically give approval within a week’s time.

• Does the bank share in loss/appreciation?

No, the intention of this type of financing structure is to facilitate the customer’s ownership of the property. Accordingly appreciation of the property is intended to be for the customer’s benefit. At the same time any depreciation will be borne by the customer.

______________________________________

Brought to you by:

ELYAC Realty Los Angeles Real Estate Agents Specializing in Foreclosure Homes for Sale, Home Loans, and Mortgage Brokers

310.562.0572

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ABN Amro a fost achizitionata in octombrie 2007 de consortiul format din Royal Bank of Scotland, Fortis si Santander pentru aproximativ 70 miliarde euro, iar diferitele segmente de activitate ale ABN Amro au fost impartite intre cele trei banci.
Activitatile desfasurate de banca in Romania au fost preluate pe parcurs de Royal Bank of Scotland. ABN Amro este prezenta in Romania din noiembrie 1995 si activeaza in 15 orase.

The problem erupted yesterday when the BOE announced they were going to provide capital and it took the market by surprise and drove the US markets down, led by financials. Almost immediately RBS said they did not need any capital, but the damage was done and its ADR shares fell by 44%, and their 6.75% $25 preferred declined by 46% to $4.95, giving it a yield of 34%! All bank preferreds suffered too but not to that degree (ABN-AMRO 5.90% fell by 35% to $6 for a yield of a mere 24.6%). Bear in mind that these dividends are taxed at just 15% and due to the desire of banks and other issuers to raise capital will most likely not be suspended…and can’t be cut as common dividends can (the only exception was the government “takeover” of FNM/FRE where in a fit of cannibalism they were ordered to suspend the dividend on the preferred which was mainly owned by banks causing an immediate writedown to zero and the loss of the income…in Wells Fargo’s case that meant writing down $600 million and foregoing about $50 million of income…are they trying to save the banks, or destroy them?), and as Warren Buffett has shown us, it takes solid returns to attract capital. That is why TB has been in favor of preferred over common when there is so much dilution of common equity and the engines of earnings growth have been removed with no alternative source.

For disclosure purposes, TB in his own and clients accounts owns both of the preferred’s mentioned and added to positions yesterday after the sharp decline…not gloating as both declined another $1 a share after he bought them. He believes they will be fine and that the combination of dividend income and potential capital appreciation makes them an acceptable risk. He does not recommend that you do the same, or buy any stock…ever, unlike Jim Cramer who continues to tout Visa stock, which despite a 7.5% drop yesterday (down 43% from the May 7 high of $89 is just $7 above it’s $44 IPO pricing and still trades at 23x ‘estimated’ earnings which are likely to be revised down…ditto Mastercard which still trades at an 18x multiple…of course TB could be wrong…right?   

A note on Buffett, while he preaches diversification Berkshire is a financial company and mainly an insurer, as a result the 24% rally in the stock from 9/15 to 10/3 not only peaked that day but gapped down on Monday with a low at the 200 day and then bounced, only to rive thru it and trade below the 40 day m/a closing just about on it…a decline of 12%, and it still doesn’t look cheap given the losses insurers are experiencing on their portfolios, especially Met Life who’s stock is not able to fight gravity like it’s Snoopy blimp).  We now return you to our regular programming…

TB’s Quote/Song of the day:

                                                                  Who’s the leader

of the club

That’s made for you and me?

M-I-C…K-E-Y  O U S O B

…TB’s apologies to Walt and the Magic Kingdom. But that is how TB feels this morning. It is 1:30am and couldn’t sleep…wouldn’t sleep (oops just lapsed into the words of Bewitched…bet you oldies didn’t know that Ella Fitzgerald wrote the lyric…and the rest of you are wondering: who’s Ella Fitzgerald?...nevamind). The ultimate game of Whack-a-Mole…the global edition, and here is how it all began:

 1999: Congress repeals Glass-Steagall…sets up no new controls to regulate banks

 2004: the SEC with William Donaldson as Chairman, unanimously votes to let the big five brokers, of which there are now just two; two went belly up, one is being bought by a bank, and the remaining two are now banks. The only opposition is a computer geek who wrote risk management programs who worried that everyone was using the same models posing systemic risk if leverage of brokers was increased…his pleas were ignored. Once that obstacle was removed, Wall Street began hiring derivatives traders with incredible contracts while laying off corporate traders and salesmen and boosted leverage to 40x or more…de facto hedge funds who were in turn lending to highly leveraged hedge funds thru prime broker accounts and furthermore entering into credit default swap agreements (CDS)  with a myriad of counterparties with no reserves to pay off if the uh…insurance…oops can’t say that ‘deal’ went bad. 60 Minutes last Sunday did the best explanation of credit default insurance but missed the mark on risk (only Jim Grant gets an ‘A’, the rest only rate a ‘B-‘). TB has told before about attending the Euromoney International Bond Congress for 13 years and in 2001 when CDS was still in it’s infamy hearing a presentation by a Bear Stearns trader in a breakout panel. The trader extolled the virtues of swaps which by the time were only about $200 billion or so…certainly well less than $1 trillion but growing rapidly. In the Q and A, TB’s hand went up (as it always does there), but his question was stolen by a man from a European bank who asked, “but what if the counterparty defaults?” To which the trader after puzzling for a couple of seconds lit up and replied, “you insure the counterparty!” Yes, as surely as auction rate securities were misrepresented as ‘cash equivalents’, he used the term insurance!...a no-no as if it truly was it would have to be regulated and trust TB on this, the last thing Wall Street ever wants is REGULATION. In ensuing years, the market kept exploding into the trillions yet UK regulators complained about how long it took to get all the signatories and without all the contract was not valid…can you imagine people making millions of dollars (or pounds) a year not reading those 150 or so page documents and then failing to sign them promptly…some took as long as six months…so you never knew if you were covered or not. The demise of the Italian conglomerate Parlamat did wonders for the swaps market as we never heard who actually held the ‘risk’…so swaps must be safe, right? Now for the explanation of swaps that escaped every one of those on 60 minutes:

In its purest form assume you were a portfolio manager with GM bonds back before they were cut to junk. You could purchase a CDS tranche that would insure the first 10 or 20%, or the last 10 or 20% or the entire bond against default (besides single issuer CDS, you could buy a ‘basket’ to insure your entire portfolio.

Continuing with the idea of CDS, which were conceptually sound, hedge funds, rather than simply ‘insure’ against portfolio risk, began to play the spreads (since you don’t just cancel a CDS like the original interest rate swaps which were bank to bank), you merely paired them off. Assume that a hedge fund got wind that Kirk Kerkorian was going to buy a big chunk of GM stock as he did just before the bonds went to junk status. They would then sell CDS on GM at say a spread of 800 basis points. Then when the announcement came they would have bought another swap for say 500 basis points making 300 basis points for the term of the contract (if it was $10 million that is a nice $300,000, and since they were paired off what could go wrong. Better yet, why do it just once, why not do it over and over so you might finally have bought 10 swaps and sold 10 so you have a nice arbitrage…and no risk, right? Wrong! If the event occurs and just one of those counterparties fail it is a house of cards. That is why the Fed moved so swiftly to ‘give’ Bear Stearns to JPMorganChase (not to be confused with the FDIC trying to give Wachovia to Citigroup at taxpayer expense). Why JPM? Because they are the largest underwriter of CDS and while they too are paired off they hold that their credit analysis won’t allow that to happen  What was incredible about the segment was while the blame was put on brokers…not once was JPM mentioned…is it the aura of Jamie Dimon?   

One last point. There is a game called implied forward rates. Using the financial futures forward contract prices they derive the probabilities of where the Fed Funds rate will be and what the Fed will do three or even six months out…that is pure bunk as we have seen. This is the same logic the quants used that got us where we are by ignoring all the exogenous variables (unsystematic risk since they are unpredictable), and then ‘betting’ on the outcome. You might do well if there is only one of you (as LTCM did in the 1990’s), but then either you grow so big and levered or others enter the game or dealers front run you as they did to LTCM, that all of your research becomes meaningless and worse makes you believe you are not at risk when on any confluence of major events you will be…beyond your wildest dreams. CDS got to be so powerful that banks and dealers began extending credit on the basis of how you were trading…there are now even CDS on US Treasury’s…which is ludicrous. IF the US treasury were to default the entire global financial system would implode and money wouldn’t be worth the paper it is printed on…we would resort to barter and those who had nothing to barter would resort to merely taking what they wanted thru force.

At this point TB will stop…we are now to the point where Christopher Cox emerges on the scene and who, along with Dick Cheney’s advice(strong arming?), set events in motion to lead to the global credit crisis that is the largest in history…it is epic! Come back tomorrow for part two. Friday will be the prologue for the recovery. TB

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]]> http://guvenontour.wordpress.com/?p=14 Tue, 07 Oct 2008 11:41:50 +0000 guvenologie http://guvenontour.wordpress.com/2008/10/07/hoe-is-het-met-private-equity/ Het gaat slecht met de economie. Zowel in Nederland als wereldwijd.
De banken staan op de rand van omvallen en de overheden mengen zich in de strijd om de banken te redden. Het meest actuele is dan ook de reddingsplan van Benelux landen om de Fortis op te splitsen en deels of volledig eigenaar te worden.

Mede dankzij door deze ontwikkelingen is ieder burger in Nederland ook eigenaar van een Nederlandse staatsbank -ook al is het tijdelijk van kracht zoals heer Balkenende vermeld heeft-. Maar is dit wel fare? Moet de staat zich niet juist terughoudend presenteren en meer controlerend overkomen dan uitvoerend orgaan.

Daarnaast valt het toch wel op dat op een of de andere manier alleen de financiële organisaties in de schijnwerpers zijn in de dagen van de crisis. Terwijl de economische crisis meer omvattend is dan alleen de financiële sector.

Moet Nederland zich niet afvragen hoe de grote jongens achter de winsten en hoge koersen op dit moment voorstaan? Was het toch niet zo dat een hedge funds de herrieschopper was over de koers van ABN Amro waardoor de Fortis zich diep in de buidel moest tasten om een grotere bank in te lijven? Toch jammer dat de private equity fondsen op dit moment geen tot nauwelijks aandacht trekken, terwijl deze spelers afgelopen jaren een van de grootste en mactigste spelers waren bij bankwezen en de koersontwikkelingen...

“Introduce a little anarchy, upset the established order, and everything becomes chaos, I’m an agent of chaos , and you know the thing about chaos? It’s fair.”

De beurscrisis heeft zelfs deze doorgaans apatische ziel wakkergeschud.  Daar is gelukkig geen diepgaande economische analyse van gekomen. Wél een impressie van het nachtleven van Maurice graaf Lippens. Met dank aan The Dark Knight & Heath Ledger, uiteraard.

Ik heb het resultaat van mijn onverwachte vlijt opgestuurd naar drie redacties. Evenveel keer raden hoeveel respons er kwam. Juist, ja.  Vraag is wat de blogosfeer daar tegenover stelt? Reageer, vertel mij of het goed of slecht is en gooi eens een linkje. Ik raak er niet aan uit of dit van het beste, of van het slechtste is dat ik ooit gemaakt heb.

Er is de laatste tijd veel te doen om Fortis. Zo werd vorige week bekend dat de overheden van Nederland, België en Luxemburg ieder een belang namen in Fortis. ABN AMRO werd toen te koop gezet. Mogelijke kopers van ABN AMRO waren ING, BNP Paribas en de Deutsche Bank. Een herstel van het aandeel Fortis bleef echter uit nadat de overheden een belang hadden genomen.

Lees de rest van: Wat is Fortis waard?

AMSTERDAM - De nog maar recent verwijderde ABN Amro-logo's van het hoofdkantoor in Amsterdam kunnen weer terug worden gehangen. Merkenexperts verwachten dat de sinds vrijdag genationaliseerde Nederlandse activiteiten van Fortis, inclusief dochter ABN Amro, verder gaan onder de naam ABN Amro.

last week was crazy. monday saw the announcement of the fortis bail-out plan by the benelux governments on the condition that abn amro be sold off. on the other hand i was busy cramming for the finance midterms and about to keel over from tvm calculations. thankfully this week things are much better, we will now be owned by the dutch government, and that's just fantastic news cause hurray for AAA rating! (plus the midterms are over, and even if i fail i really dont give a rat's ass.) it's only fair since we've little or no exposure to the sub-prime mess, and been all along a very stable/healthy bank..it's good to be independent, never did like to see the abn amro name cease to exist. (: also i really like the idea of celebrating my 1 year at abn amro with abn amro, instead of some where else......

a sidenote: i have been rather angsty and short tempered lately. i keep finding myself getting annoyed with the smallest things and losing my temper rather unneccessarily. such is the curse of the monthly cycle. bear with it hon, it'll get better i promise. the best strategy you can follow is probably to just agree, placate and give in to my amazingly childish tantrums. i'll make it up to you when it's over.

Fortis alaturi de banca spaniola Santander si grupul britanic Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), s-a implicat, in aprilie 2007, in cea mai importanta achizitie din sectorul bancar. Aceasta se intampla cu cateva luni inainte de declansarea crizei creditelor, cu grad mare de risc. La momentul respectiv, un titlu Fortis era cotat la 36 Euro. Luni 29.09.08, actiunile Fortis s-au depreciat si au coborat sub un prag de 5 Euro, aducand grupul financiar la o valoare evaluata de mai putin de 13 miliarde euro.

Fortis, RBS si Banco Santander au platit in 2007, suma record de 71 miliarde euro, ca sa cumpere ABN Amro. Fortis achizitionase pentru 24 de miliarde euro,  reteaua de unitati din Olanda, divizia de administrare de capital si bancile de investitii ale ABN Amro.

Fortis s-a confruntat cu o grava criza de incredere in ultimele saptamani, in special in privinta capacitatii sale de absorbtie a ABN Amro. Actiunile bancii se ieftinisera, la sfarsitul saptamanii trecute, pana la un nivel minim neatins de 15 ani.

Un plan de salvare elaborat in graba de autoritatile belgiene, olandeze si luxemburgheze prevede nationalizarea partiala a Fortis. Fiecare stat preia o participatie de 49% din activitatile grupului desfasurate pe teritoriul sau, pentru o suma totala de 11,2 miliarde euro.

Potrivit presei, banca olandeza ING este interesata sa cumpere ABN Amro pentru 10 miliarde euro. Aceasta ar fi o solutie ce ar satisface opinia publica, salariatii si clasa politica ingrijorata ca ar putea vedea aceasta adevarata perla a economiei olandeze trecand in mainile strainilor.

Luni, directorul executiv al Fortis, Filip Dierckx a afirmat ca "momentul ales pentru oferta de cumparare a ABN Amro a fost, clar, unul prost". Partenerul Fortis, Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), lansase, in aprilie, o majorare de capital record in Marea Britanie, de 12 miliarde lire sterline (15 miliarde euro). "Am platit un pret foarte ridicat pentru ABN Amro", au afirmat reprezentantii RBS.

ABN Amro este prezenta in Romania din noiembrie 1995 si activeaza in 15 orase. Activitatile desfasurate de banca olandeza in Romania au fost preluate pe parcurs de Royal Bank of Scotland, motiv pentru care noua vanzare a Fortis nu afecteaza in mod direct subsidiara din Romania a ABN.

In eerste instantie dacht iedereen dat beide banken al gered werden door het eerste plan waarbij beide regeringen en die van Luxemburg deels eigenaar werden van de banken. Maar afgelopen weken bleven voornamelijk zakelijke klanten weglopen waren de nieuwe miljarden dus alweer verdwenen.

Er moest dus snel iets gebeuren en in het diepste geheim werd er een nieuw plan gemaakt waardoor de banken volledig staatsbezit zijn geworden. Hierdoor zijn alle spaarders volledig verzekerd van volledig staatssteun inplaats van alleen de eerste 20.000 euro. Hopelijk kunnen we nu weer rustig sparen.

Heel handig hebben ze het nieuws vrijdag aan het eind van de dag bekend gemaakt. Zo kunnen de gemoederen om de banken tot bedaren komen. Maar het blijft spannend hoe de beurs maandag zal reageren en wat er met de aandelen van Fortis en ABN Amro gaat gebeuren. Misschien nu maar obligaties van de staat nemen dan maar, want die moeten warschijnlijk driftig gaan geld lenen bij het volk.

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Original article inspiring me to write the above: De Telegraaf.nl

Het reddingsplan waarmee Nederland, België en Luxemburg ruim 11 miljard in de bank pompten nam de onrust onder beleggers niet weg. Het aandeel Fortis ging...

Lees de rest van: Fortis gered, ABN Amro te koop

http://www.deredactie.be/cm/de.redactie/economie/080928_Fortis_spoedberaad

zo 28/09/08 23:39 - De Belgische, Luxemburgse en Nederlandse overheid investeren 11,2 miljard euro in bankverzekeraar Fortis. Dat heeft premier Yves Leterme (CD&V) meegedeeld na een weekend intens overleg over het lot van de bankverzekeraar.
De regering was vanavond in crisisberaad bijeengekomen. Ze wilde absoluut een oplossing uitwerken voor de Aziatische beurzen opengaan.

De Belgische overheid gaat 4,5 miljard euro in Fortis stoppen, de Nederlandse overheid evenveel en Luxemburg 2,5 miljard.

De voorzitter van de raad van bestuur, Maurice Lippens, stapt op.  De regering zal een zeg hebben in zijn opvolging.

Fortis zou ook verplicht worden ABN-Amro te verkopen, al is het nog niet duidelijk aan wie of tegen welke prijs.

Ruim overleg
Aan het  regeringsoverleg namen ook Jean-Claude Trichet van de Europese Centrale Bank, Guy Quaden van de Nationale Bank en de Nederlandse minister van Financiën Wouter Bos deel.

Het is duidelijk dat de kredietcrisis een internationaal fenomeen is, veroorzaakt door de geldzucht van een kleine schare kapitalisten. Maatregelen beperken tot de huidige staatsgrenzen is dan ook ronduit belachelijk. Wat positief is aan deze crisis is dat men blijkbaar begin in te zien dat de Lage Landen sterker verenigd staan dan verdeeld. De huidige crisis heeft geen baat aan belachelijke separatistische projecten die enkel gevoed worden door een kleine kliek, laten we eindelijk een einde maken aan het Belgische separatistische avontuur, dat enkel voor verdeeldheid en haat heeft gezorgd. Laten we eindelijk de Nederlanden herenigen en laten we manifest kiezen voor de verenigde Lage Landen.

NEEN aan het Belgisch separatisme; de Nederlanden één!

Ik blijf het fascinerend vinden... Handkrabbels op een Word documentje... Over iets wat je een paar maand geleden voor 24 miljard € gekocht hebt en nu voor een miljard of tien weer moet verkopen. Omdat het financieel wat tegenzit.

(Zou dit een bewuste communicatie zijn geweest?)

Oh ja, de vakbonden zijn tevreden. Ze werken weer voor de Staat!

Inmiddels doen verschillende scenario's de rond over de toekomst van Fortis. Het Financieele Dagblad rept op basis van informatie ‘van ingewijden’ over een eventuele verkoop van ABN Amro Nederland. Andere mogelijkheden zijn dat Fortis in zijn geheel wordt overgenomen of in delen wordt verkocht. De Standaard zegt te weten dat de Nederlandse bankverzekeraar ING en de Franse bank BNP Paribas nauw bij de lopende onderhandelingen zijn betrokken.

Fortis kaapte vorige jaar -met een vijandelijke bod- de Nederlandse ABN Amro bank van de concurrent Britse Barclays om in Nederland een grote speler te worden op gebied van private banking, consumentenbank en kredit en belleggingsbankier te worden.

Door de financiële crisis wereldwijd heeft de Fortis helaas niet lang van kunnen genieten. Deels door strategische fouten met beleggingen en hypotheeken deels door een maat te grote concurrent te hebben overnemen heeft de Belgisch-Nederlandse Fortis grote deel van haar spaarvermogen en bedrijfswaarde moeten zien verdampen. Dit kan ook concluderen dat er -hard maar niet onrechtmatig- een einde is gekomen aan de durfinvesteerder.

De topoverleg waar Minister Bos van Financiën, directeur van de Nederlandsche Bank (DNB), directie van de Fortis en de Belgische ministers zijn nog gaande. Ondertussen zijn de signalen al gegeven dat de Fortis eigenlijk al omgevallen is. De details zullen dan ook morgen worden bekendgemaakt door de minister danwel de bestuursvoorzitter van Fortis.

Fortis n'en finit pas de défrayer la chronique, malheureusement pour ses actionnaires et clients, dans le mauvais sens du terme...

D'abord, il y a ce remplacement de Jean-Paul Votron - accusé de tous les maux, et surtout celui de ne pas mal communiquer - par Herman Verwilst, vieux de la vieille (ah bon c'était une garantie??) et quasi intrônisé comme chevalier blanc.

Celui-ci a sans nul doute égalé les performances de son prédécesseur en termes de communication. Hier lors d'une interview radiophonique, il n'a pas hésité à lancer : "mais voyons mon bon monsieur, une entreprise de notre taille, avec autant d'employés ne tombe pas en faillite comme ça...".

Ah bon? C'est nouveau ça... Pour avoir une faillite en bonne et due forme, il suffit que les créanciers de la banque (clients en dépôts, fournisseurs, prêteurs, ...) réclament leur argent et que Fortis soit dans l'impossibilité de payer - ce qui parait loin d'être surréaliste par les temps qui courent... Et en fait de taille de la société, Mr Verwilst peut se renseigner auprès des employés d'Alitalia, d'Enron et de MCI, la taille - comme toujours :-D - n'a pas d'importance!

En termes de communication c'est un désastre, et ce n'est vraiment pas le seul, il suffit de Googler "Fortis nouvelles" pour s'en rendre compte... À ce niveau, ne pas engager un éminent conseiller en communication - au vu du contexte actuel - relève non plus de l'amateurisme, mais bien de la faute professionnelle!

Et il semble que la direction de Fortis s'en soit rendue compte : après deux petits mois, exit Herman Verwilst (un record, encore un!) pour faire place à un nouveau chevalier blanc (si, si, on vous le jure!) : Filip Dierkcx, un des ténors de la branche bancaire du groupe.

On lui souhaite déjà bonne chance, il va en avoir bien besoin! Entre les spéculations de rachat, de faillite, d'incapacité à intégrer ABN-Amro et les investisseurs, clients et créanciers à rassurer; il va avoir l'occasion de démontrer tous ses talents...

Que va devenir l'ex-fleuron de la finance Belge? Bien malin qui aujourd'hui peut le dire... Il semble raisonnable d'envisager une réduction significative de la voilure : vente d'actifs, concentration sur les métiers de base et sans doute restructuration. Une chose est clair, le bout du tunnel semble encore bien loin...

Quand on voit ce qu'on a pu enquiquinner - le mot est faible - Didier Bellens ces derniers mois au sujet de son bilan - pourtant plus que positif - à la tête de Belgacom, c'est - vous me pardonnerez l'expression - à pisser de rire!

Photos empruntées au site de L'Echo.

If you are walking at 5 km/h on a train that is moving at a 150km/h, your speed is 5 km/h in relation to another passenger sitting down on the train but your speed is 155km/h for someone sitting in a car at the railcrossing watching the train pass by. depending on your point of reference, the speed is different. Everything is relative!

Now why would I bring up this topic, well, simply because Mike Sanderson (winner of Volvo Ocean Race 2005-2006 with ABN AMRO 1) put this into perspective with the new fleet. He said that the difference between ABN AMRO 1 and the other boats in last race was bigger than the difference between Delta Lloyd (same boat) and the rest of the fleet this year. So what does this mean? Same boat, different differences... Everything is relative!

Moral: Don't condemn Team Delta Lloyd, I think they will surprise us!

Ciao!

/E

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Utk Keterangan dan Bantuan, segera hub:
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atau Email ke : kta4.you@yahoo.com

Beleggers reageerden vrijdag euforisch op het nieuws dat de overheid in de VS werkt aan de creatie van een nieuw fonds waarin financiële instellingen hun illiquide bezittingen kunnen deponeren. Bovendien zorgden de maatregelen van de Amerikaanse en Britse beurswaakhonden om short selling tegen te gaan voor fors stijgende aandelenkoersen. Door het short gaan (verkopen van aandelen die niet in bezit zijn om in de toekomst goedkoper terug te kopen) te verbieden komt er minder verkoopdruk op aandelen. Bovendien zorgden deze maatregelen ervoor dat partijen die short zaten, de aandelen terug moesten kopen. Het is dan ook niet verwonderlijk dat vrijdag vooral de zwaargehavende financiële waarden van deze ontwikkelingen profiteerden. De koersen van de financials zijn het afgelopen jaar gedecimeerd vanwege de kredietcrisis. Aegon en ING stegen meer dan 20% en Fortis boekte een koerswinst van ruim 17%.

Lees de rest van: AEX ontsnapt aan melt down