The IEA finally gave a serious report on the state of global oil reserves this year and predicted a barrel price of $200 US by 2030. 

This may not seem like a very high prediction as we reached $147 US per barrel earlier this year.  However, this is the first time that the 2030 price has been predicted to be higher than the current price since 1998.  And in 1998, the IEA was predicting a 2030 price of $17 US per barrel!

What’s more, the IEA makes a boldly realistic statement in their 2008 executive summary:

The world’s energy system is at a crossroads. Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable — environmentally, economically, socially. But that can — and must — be altered; there’s still time to change the road we’re on. It is not an exaggeration to claim that the future of human prosperity depends on how successfully we tackle the two central energy challenges facing us today: securing the supply of reliable and affordable energy; and effecting a rapid transformation to a low-carbon, efficient and environmentally benign system of energy supply. What is needed is nothing short of an energy revolution. This World Energy Outlook demonstrates how that might be achieved through decisive policy action and at what cost. It also describes the consequences of failure.

Consider this post on www.theoildrum.com

Today, the world’s energy ‘watchdog’, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published their long awaited annual World Energy Outlook (WEO) for 2008. In stark contrast to bland-to-cornucopian supply commentary in past reports, the initial language in this years Executive Summary is of an urgent nature. This report is a step in the right direction for conveying our rapidly deteriorating energy situation to world policymakers - the IEA should be commended for making the turn and finally acknowledging: costs, investment limitations, new capacity requirements, steep decline rates of existing wells, and externalities (in this case GHGs).

For the first time sine 1998, the IEA has forecast a higher oil price in the year 2030 than the current market price. In fact, the new price forecast for 2030 of $200 per barrel is not only higher than all previous WEO forecasts, it is higher than all previous WEO 2030 price forecasts combined. (1998-$17, 2002-$29, 2004-$29, 2006-$58, 2007-$65).

What happened to bring about such a big change in the IEA’s stance?  Is the IEA really finally predicting accurately? Or, are they till several years behind in predicting the real state of affairs in our current energy model? 

If this is so, $200 per barrel by 2030 and hints of peak oil may still be a huge underestimate.

Post rated C. Pentru explicaţia rating-ului, apasă AICI înainte de a citi post-ul.

Mă-ntreb dacă am depăşit punctul făr’ de întoarcere sau mai avem puţin până la el? Momentul când schimbarea climatică este iremediabilă, deşi eforturile de încetinire a încălzirii globale nu vor fi niciodată de prisos.

Spun încetinire pentru că fenomenul este, momentan, imposibil de oprit. Probabil mai avem de aşteptat cel puţin 50 de ani pentru a opri complet eliminarea gazelor cu efect de seră.

Încep să cred că nu se va mai putea reface complet clima. Sau e nevoie de minţi luminate şi voinţă de fier pentru asta.

Al Gore a lansat în vara acestui an o provocare fără precedent în SUA (şi chiar în lume), aceea ca, până în 2018, electricitatea să fie produsă 100% din surse nepoluante. Sincer, mă îndoiesc de reuşită, având în vedere anvergura proiectului său, e foarte mult într-un timp atât de scurt. Cel mai mare poluator din lume vrea să devină lider mondial incontestabil în utilizarea energiei alternative. Imaginaţi-vă ce contribuţie ar avea acest pas în încetinirea încălzirii globale. Dar de ce este singura iniţiativă de acest fel?

Tendinţa este de a accepta că schimbarea climatică este ceva anormal şi, nu în ultimul rând, că este NAŞPA. Vor fi mereu sceptici, e normal, dar numărul lor se micşorează pe zi ce trece. Timpul va rezolva şi problema aceasta, dar sper să nu fie prea târziu.

E bine să te rogi pentru mai bine şi toţi îţi vom aprecia grija şi interesul.

Dar, din păcate, rugăciunea nu va rezolva multe lucruri. Important este să acţionezi şi să vrei sincer să faci ceva. Să te ridici şi să susţii, nu neapărat să iei cuvântul.

E nevoie de poluare? Copacii ne stau în cale şi încetinesc setea noastră de dezvoltare?

România se va autoprovoca vreodată? Se va autosesiza ?

Să dau idei?

Ce-ar fi să:

• oprim şi să interzicem distrugerea spaţiului verde în oraşe până în 2012? se poate să introducem şi sancţiuni severe?
• oprim complet tăierea pădurilor din România până în 2020? (citeşte şi aici)
• să se planteze cel puţin 100 ha de copaci pe an timp de 10 ani?
• să dotăm fiecare sală de clasă din şcoli şi licee cu coşuri de gunoi pentru hârtie şi plastic pentru ca apoi să fie reciclate (până în 2015)?
• să producem cel puţin 50% din electricitate din resurse regenerabile până în 2020?*
• să dotăm cel puţin 75% din casele din mediul rural cu panouri solare până în 2025? (aici şi aici)
• să dotăm toate instituţiie de învăţământ cu panouri solare până în 2030?
• să introducem ore de “protecţia mediului”?
• să conservăm cel puţin 90% din speciile de animale şi plante din ţară până în 2025?
• să izolăm termic toate blocurile până în 2020?
• să ne asigurăm că, până în 2015, toată populaţia României este conştientă de schimbarea climatică?
• să reciclăm 90% din obiectele făcute din materiale refolosibile în 2020?
• să transmitem lumii că vrem o schimbare?
• să transformăm România în cel mai bun exemplu de luptă împotriva încălzirii globale?
• să facem ceva, concret?

*reglementările UE ne cer doar 20%

This shit is sick how could I not write on this!  Japan Space Elevator Assoc (JESA) is working on an elevator that would start on earth and extend to a space docking station, allowing humans and other things to be transported through. A carbon nanotube would be used to wire the elevator lift and they predict to begin construction around 2030 but it might be later. Can you imagine hopping in a high-powered elevator and actually being beyond the night sky? The future is real son, HOVERBOARDS DON’T FLOAT ON WATER UNLESS YOU GOT POWER!!!!

And yes this is real talk.

Dirt. You probably haven’t given it much thought since your days as a mud pie connoisseur, but it’s time to start thinking about it again (although we don’t necessarily recommend adding it back into your diet). And why, pray tell, is dirt worth contemplating? Because we need it and yet we seem to be losing it faster than it can be replaced. Clearly, this is a problem.

Soil creation is a painfully slow process. On average, soil experts (grownups with degrees in this stuff, not toddlers with a penchant for pie) figure that it takes anywhere from 300 to 1000 years for every inch of soil to develop. Unfortunately, that inch can get washed away overnight in a hard rain.

So what’s the big deal about losing a little dirt? Well, soil is essentially the living skin of our planet, stretched over a skeleton of bedrock. It ranges from a few inches to a few feet deep, depending on where you are. And topsoil–the top layer of soil where roots grow–is where the magic happens. Without topsoil we wouldn’t have plants. And without plants, we couldn’t survive. So dirt’s kinda important, doncha think? 

Soil formation follows a pretty simple recipe: a dash of physically and chemically eroded rock, a pinch of accumulated windblown organic matter and a hint of chemical processes, all set to bake for 100,000 years or so. Nature’s not-so-secret ingredients, however, are the critters like bacteria, fungi, protozoa, nematodes, mites, bugs, and earthworms that make their home in the topsoil. These guys convert loose collections of dust, sand and rock into rich, productive soil that can support plant life. Take away all of those critters and you are pretty much left with boring old sand, rock dust and minerals.

The take home message? Without topsoil, plants can’t grow. But without critters, topsoil loses its mojo.

And mojo-less topsoil is what covers 7.5 million square miles of previously farmable land–that’s an area the size of Canada and the US put together. How did that happen? Predictably, we did it. Shortly after the Stone Age, humans began clearing land and overworking the soil all over the world. In some places (like cacao plantations in Central and South America) the soil has been over farmed to the point where it can no longer support life. Without the critters (or plants) to hold it together, soil is more susceptible to being blown away in the wind and washed away in the rain. And once gone it is very difficult to get back–remember the 100,000 year recipe? 

Soil is great when it’s on the ground, doing its job. But when wind or water move it around it can cause all sorts of problems. Airborne dust can lower air quality thousands of miles away from affected fields. And sediment from runoff and air-blown soils smothers coral reefs and other underwater habitats. In other words, farmers are doubly screwed. They’re losing their land, and now they can’t even fish for food.

To minimize this screwage, farmers in many parts of the world have begun using more sustainable practices. They’ve stopped tilling the soil between plantings and leave stubble from previous harvests in place–and they add compost. According to recent research, compost just might help soil keep its mojo. Researchers determined that early farmers in the Amazon basin enriched the quality of their soil using a mix of charcoal, food refuse and other wastes. The results of this hard-core composting are still apparent today: Some spots have soil that is more than six feet deep where a few inches is more the norm.

Composting can help enrich existing soils, but it can’t replace what’s been lost completely. Scientists estimate that as a planet, we experience a net loss of around 1% of our useful soil per year. One percent may not sound like much, but it is. By 2030, the world’s population will increase by an estimated 1.5 billion. According to the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations), we’ll need an extra billion tons of cereal grains to meet growing demand–that’s 34% more than we produce right now. That’ll be pretty hard to do without any dirt.

Formalizing the plan that CEO Eric Schmidt discussed in September, Google has officially unveiled a very detailed proposal to help the U.S. kick its fossil fuel habit by 2030. Dubbed ‘Clean Energy 2030,’ the proposal calls for almost all of U.S. electricity to come from renewables by 2030 and almost all of new car sales by 2030 to be plug-ins. The search engine giant says while this plan will cost $4.4 trillion (in undiscounted 2008 dollars), it will ultimately save $5.4 trillion, delivering a net savings of $1 trillion over the life of the plan.

No wonder Google was recently declared the second most active cleantech investor for the third quarter. The plan is similar to Al Gore’s in calling for almost 100 percent of U.S. electricity to come from clean sources, but is more pragmatic in that it tacks on another 10 years to accomplish this very difficult goal. Google says we need to focus on three things to meet the proposal’s ambitious goals:

• clean power, including building out transmission lines and implementing policies like a national renewable portfolio standard;
• plug-in vehicle policy support, to boost ownership and EV infrastructure development; and
• energy efficiency, including deploying smart meters and enacting policies to encourage efficiency.

When it comes to clean power Google outlines many specific steps. While wind and solar would provide most of the clean power — 380 GW and 250 GW respectively — Google notes that “geothermal energy is perhaps the sleeping giant” and could provide 80 GW (no surprises here, as it has invested in several enhanced geothermal startups and projects). Google also calls for a buildout of 20,000 miles of new transmission lines to support new renewable energy generation.

For personal transportation, Google says we need to sell 100,000 plug-in vehicles in 2010, 3.7 million in 2020 and 22 million in 2030. That will make up the bulk of new car sales and a little under half of the U.S. vehicle fleet. Traditional vehicles will need to become increasingly efficient — 45 mpg by 2030 — says Google, and we should offer incentives to get older inefficient vehicles off the roads.

Energy efficiency is the area where Google has been the least vocal, but could potentially offer the most support, by providing a lot of important communications data. So we we’re happy to see that Google says on its blog post announcing the plan:

When homes are equipped with smart meters and real-time pricing, research shows that energy use typically drops. Google is looking at ways that we can use our information technology and our reach to help increase awareness and bring better, real-time information to consumers.

Google has taken such a high-profile leadership role in energy for a few reasons. As Om pointed out today, Google uses a massive amount of energy to run data centers for its search and computing services. As Google requires more energy, it wants to make it cleaner and more efficient. The company has an enormous wealth of information that it can use to tackle the energy crisis, harnessing technology and intellectual property of the Internet and computing boom to fight climate change. Google’s Schmidt plans to go over the plan at the Common Wealth Club tonight, and we’ll bring you more of his thoughts after the event.

Warming of globe an alarming concern

In sense true let prevail discern

Green house gas in formidable tone

Has potholes dug in layer ozone

Ultraviolet rays when harsh strike

Disrupt golden glorious sunrise

Temperature enraged in blatant spill

A catastrophe greater, than wars instill

Weather a ghastly mask attain

With trickles of yellow, applause hurricane

Disappearing of glaciers, an Ecologists fright

Cities to sink, as seas uprise

Fossil fuel in villainous role

Upon atmosphere creates a rigmarole

Oceans slow down carbon di oxide intake

Buffe rfactor definded Rodger Rivelle past three decades

With few statements more, that emphasized upon

Warnings against globe, growing warm

Recurring misery, no plain mirth

Grief strikes, when upon mothe earth

Get up pay heed before too late

In hands of mankind, lies planet’s fate

A wake up call to ears deaf

Twist turn past, dawn, just not enough,

A step slow lay, before to run

For the race has now begun

Gear, straighten, slouched recline

For this marathon to join

Before does this disaster full grow

Soots of carbon, on skies sow

A message cast, far and wide

Once again to welcome glorious sunrise !

Little babe ah Dont cry

Not much this world has to offer why ?

Gone has air’s exuberant fresh

Atmosphere reflects a terrible mess

Soots of carbon for thy lungs to breathe

Poisonous fumes in mounds that seethe

Temperature torturous for thy skin soft

For paid we no heed, warned though oft

Left matter in oblivion, of what to be

Like business, that was, not ours to see

Uncultivated land wide spread far

Industrialized in countless unchristened mass

But never will thy eyes get to see

Swish and swirl of tall fir tree

Horizontal blend of much talked oak

Nature’s fury appeared once that hoax

Pounce will on thee one day, race, run

Doomsday has to shape begun

One of India’s most powerful Hindu nationalist leaders, Ashok Singhal, who has an international profile in the Hindu world, has just told an assembly of political and religious luminaries in Delhi of a prophecy he says Sathya Sai Baba shared with him. The Organiser, September 14, 2008, reports:

“… Shri Singhal also threw light on how to strengthen the Hindu society and unite our great India. The VHP leader, while disclosing his discussion with Satya Sai Baba, said that Sai Baba had informed him that between 2020 and 2030 the whole India would be of Hindus and after 2030 the whole world would be of Hindus”.

Source:

Amrut Mahotsav of Dr Suresh Bajpai
Leaders laud his dedication, service

Note:

The Individual referred to in the quote is the international president of the VHP, which stands for Vishwa Hindu Parishad, founded by the late Swami Chinmayananda. It grew from a number of the factors that birthed  the Hindu nationalist organisation known as RSS or Rashtriya Swamyamsekak Sangh, which is very powerful, militant and highly organized. According to David James Smith, , Hinduism and Modernity P189, Blackwell Publishing ISBN 0-631-20862-3 VHP general secretary, S.S. Apte, formerly a member of the RSS, stated, “The world has been divided to Christian, Islam and Communist. All of them view Hindu society as very fine rich food on which to feast and fatten themselves. it is necessary in this age of conflict to think of and organize the Hindu world to save it from the evils of all the three”.

See Wikipedia articles:

Vishva Hindu Parishad

Rashtriya Swamyamsekak Sangh

Further Reading

When Disasters Overtake S. Sai Baba’s Promises

‘World Avatar’ Sathya Sai Baba’s Troubled Trail

Quote: “There are Sathya Sai Baba devotees in some of the highest echelons of power in various countries. Their faith in him may be touching but not likely to be fulfilled. Despite various statements such as that that he would not age or get sick, he looks fragile and decrepit, increasingly muttering oddities and making egregious blunders”. See Sathya Sai Baba’s Tips To Keep Ageing Away.

Has ‘World Saviour’ Missed His Plane?

Quote:“In his February 16, 2007 so-called ‘divine discourse’, Sai Baba said, “I intend to undertake a world tour, shortly.”But will he? How can he? The guru, perhaps the most wealthy and politically powerful in India’s long history, claims that he will save the world in his own lifetime. He will, he says, preside over the greatest changes ever to occur in history - the Muslims being the last to accept that he is God”.

Sathya Sai Promise Has Lost Its Bloom

…………..

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NOTES:

- An excellent video that explains the benefits of CCS technologies in capturing carbon dioxide emissions. Technology could become critical in the fight against climate change and global warming. CCS stands for Carbon Capture Sequestration.

- Energy security is also an important factor because of the abundant availability of coal. The EU believes that CCS technology should form part of the measures in reducing greenhouse gases and an integral part of receiving energy from the supply of coal. The European Union has set exacting targets for EU countries for both 2030 and 2050 in regards to the reducing of carbon emissions. CCS technologies could become an important instrument within the building of the proposed new clean-coal power station at Kingsnorth.

CRITICAL

An energy future that becomes reliant on coal does, however, have implications worth considering. For example, if ‘clean-coal’ power stations were to be built most of the coal would need to be transported from countries such as Australia and Latin America, creating vast amounts of carbon emissions during the shipping and transportation process.

Critically, even if coal technologies do increase the ratio of energy produced to CO2 released, some will still be released into the atmosphere. The cost of implementing clean coal technology is prohibitive and the length of time needed to develop technologies like pulverised coal or gasification to the point of substantial difference to the environment is far too long.

‘Clean coal technology’ has been argued to gradually nudge the efficiency of coal-fired plants upwards. But, pertinently, that could take anything up to 50-years to reach the efficiency levels required in benefiting from such technology.

If we continue on our current course, the environment will likely be damaged irreparably. Growing evidence suggests, though, that it would be better for our governments to invest money by improving renewable energy technologies such as wind or, solar power towers which have been proven to work in Madrid as well as within the new solar-powered plantations in China.

© Text: Mark Dowe, 2008

Australia, a country renowned for it’s love of sports and outdoor lifestyle has just been named the ‘Fattest Nation in the World’. Oh what a proud moment in history that is, let’s bring out a double cheese burger and chuck it on the barbie to celebrate.

What on earth has happened to this world and it’s waistline, and who is really to blame? Is it the companies who make the junk food, the media who promote it or the consumer who thinks if they buy a meal that’s ‘Happy’ then they must be onto a good thing.

At a time when the world seems to be sinking into financial hardship, ‘cheaper than chips’ food is even more appealing to those who are forced to budget and tighten their belts. Of course not eating the junk food would help considerably with the tightening, but that’s neither here nor there.

Still not to fear. McDonald’s (the all American hero) is one company that has ever so kindly stepped up to the plate and is fighting the good fight to ensure that the world doesn’t go hungry, and it seems that the public is incredibly grateful.

Grateful enough that in the UK alone, McDonald’s, the countries largest low wage employer, has recently created 4000 new jobs in their 1,200 outlets. Jobs evidently needed to keep up with the demand of the 2 million new customers who are flocking in through their doors every month, to fill up on a menu that seems to get cheaper by the week.

Now I have to say, that with the world media so heavily focused on the growing problem of obesity, and a staggering 58% of the world’s population predicted to be obese by 2030,  I just don’t get it.

Why are so many people still refusing to grasp the simple fact that it is not called ‘junk’ food for nothing?

The definition of junk according to my (Websters) dictionary is ‘discarded useless objects, rubbish, trash, any narcotic drug, such as heroin’. How very appetising. No wait, let’s wrap that in shiny paper and stick it in a box with a big smiley face on. OK, that looks much better. Now it’s good enough to eat.

Yes of course there is no denying that a ‘Value meal’ may be cheaper than buying all the fresh ingredients you need to cook a meal. Yes of course it is undoubtedly quicker to queue up and have your food thrown together for you than it is to stand in your kitchen at the end of a day and make it yourself. Yes of course kids will love it and therefore the threat of enduring yet another argument over how long it takes them to eat their dinner is significantly reduced.

So yes, yes, yes. I get that it can be a quicker, easier, cheaper and less stressful option all around. But that doesn’t mean it’s a better option. Cutting straight across a crowded road might be quicker than walking an extra 50 yards to the nearest flashing green man, but it doesn’t mean you will get to the other side in one piece. Several flattened pieces perhaps. Or, if you are in Singapore, with a fine for Jay walking.

The simple fact of the matter is that if you consume your body weight in Big Macs and McNuggets every month then the likelihood is you will get fat, you will get sick and you will die… years before your name ever comes up on the Grim Reaper’s call sheet.

Surely no food is worth gaining weight or dying over? I reckon if every McDonald’s had a pair of scales at the counter and you had to climb on them to place your order, it might make a whole heap of people think twice before stepping through the door and in turn, cut down the queuing time for those ‘Super Size’ fanatics who really don’t care.

Of course I know from experience the occasional burger might be nice. Or more to the point the idea of a burger might be nice - when you are out, hungry enough to eat the furry contents of your glove box and too far from your own fridge to make it through till the next meal. The reality of it is very different if I  remember rightly (since cutting red meat out my diet I haven’t been back). You go in through those doors starving and full of hope that it’s just what you feel like and come out 15 minutes later feeling bloated, greasy and in need of a colonic irrigation.

Now I know that it may seem like I have a real axe to grind with McDonald’s (or those who eat it), but that’s not the case at all. All fast food places are as bad as each other and wherever you go, the menu is nothing more than a recipe for any number of chronic medical conditions.

When it comes to the kids, these places are especially bad news. Nearly every possible combination of children’s meals in all these fast food joints are too high in calories, exceeding 430 calories - an amount that is one-third of what the National Institute of Medicine recommends children ages 4 through 8 should consume in a day. Incidentally Subways is the healthiest of them all and apparently the only one that doesn’t offer soft drinks with kids meals.

It seems crazy that some parents are OK with their kids filling up on empty calories and nothing else. If they were asked to make their child neck a bottle of vodka and chain smoke a packet of B&H for their tea would they agree? So why would they let some clown called Ronald help pour a load of saturated fat down their throat instead.

The reason why McDonald’s bugs me the most is because they base all of their promotion and advertising around families, suggesting that it is the perfect place to take your 2.4 kids for a nice meal out. Hey, who needs a Sunday Roast in a nice country pub when you can sit on a plastic bench, get ketchup all over your shoes and leave stinking of chip fat instead

McDonald’s spends over $2 billion a year on advertising - a large chunk of which would be used to target young kids. Their marketing encourages the use of ‘pester power’, the bain of every parent’s life. They know that if you stick a small plastic piece of nothing in a box, link it with the latest product, film or event then those little McNugget loving consumers will come a running.

And when chunky little Jo Junior hankers after the complete set of McAction ‘limited edition’ toys that come with his Happy Meal, then the rest of the family will invariably also come along to chow down at the Temple of McDoom. So what you have is the whole family now eating a load of cr*p just so they can get their hands on something that won’t even make it out of the backseat of the car. Clever marketing it maybe, but should companies be allowed to lead little lambs in for the slaughter like this?

I know for a fact this marketing works. The other day on the walk home from school, my daughter asked out of the blue if I would take her to McDonald’s. Obviously my eyebrows disappeared into my hairline and she had more chance of growing a second head, but I still asked her why she wanted to go. It turns out that it wasn’t for the food or even the play centre (the ones they put in to trap parents and get them to buy more food). No, it was because she desperately wanted some beanie thing that McDonald’s have brought out in honour of the Olympics. Sadly my daughter won’t be getting one, but seeing as she had forgotten she had even asked by the time we got home, I don’t think it will stick in her childhood memories and scar her for life.

Talking of the Olympics, there’s another really clever marketing campaign.  Who else could possibly be more suited to help promote the world’s most famous sporting event than one of the world’s leading sponsors of obesity. Strikes me as a bit of an odd partnership that one, much the same as if you held a sex convention in a nunnery or an AA meeting in a pub. But then, as every company knows, you should never underestimate the power of positive association.

Of course fighting McDonald’s cause along the fatty highway and creating a positive link between health and the McHeart Attack are some of the world’s most celebrated Olympians. Namely the 8 time gold medal winner Michael Phelps and the world’s fastest man, Usain Bolt.

Phelps, who once again has put Flipper to shame with his speed in the water, has talked about how he consumes a massive 12,000 calories a day, including foods from his favourite eatery - McDonald’s. Bolt, who makes slow motion look fast has revealed that he doesn’t eat breakfast and fills up instead on nuggets before hitting the track.

Oh yeah. Bang goes any hope of parents using these athletes and the extraordinary feats that they have achieved to motivate our children into eating well. I personally think Phelps should get back in the water and keep his eating habits to himself. If the average person took a leaf out of his book and thought that consuming this much food would help them win a gold (and we know there is always going to be someone dumb enough to try it), then Greenpeace would have to be called to dredge them off the nearest sandbank.

Despite their claims that they care and are working to help stamp out obesity, McDonald’s are only there to feed those who come knocking. Of course they are, that’s the nature of what they do. Their policy is not to restrict portion sizes and dispense nutritional advice with ketchup. Many light years ago my husband did a stint at a McDonald’s. After a few weeks on the job he was fired. Not because he stole fries or dropped a gherkin slice on the floor, but because he asked one very overweight ‘little’ boy, when he came up for his third Big Mac, “Don’t you think you might have already had one too many?” Straight talking is obviously not a trait they look for in their employees.

Please McDonald’s, enough with the celebrity endorsements and sponsoring of sports. Just start making the food a tad healthier and then maybe, just maybe, the obesity trend will be brought under control and in 50 years time there will still be enough space left on this planet for all of the people to squeeze in.

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Senator McCain made a speech yesterday advocating the need for an increased nuclear power generation capability in the US. Let me first say that I agree with a number of the positions proposed by the Republican nominee. Nuclear power will have to be part of the solution to the energy and environmental challenges confronting the world today. Wind, solar, and tidal power should be developed to their utmost, but, considering their limited capacity into the foreseeable future, they are incapable of meeting anywhere near our demand. If we are serious about cutting carbon emissions in a manner that is not crippling to our economy, nuclear expansion has to be on the agenda. 

Recycling spent fuel may make good sense too. It reduces the amount of the waste product and, as I understand it, it decreases the half-life of those radioactive waste products that must be stored. Furthermore, it gives you more power out of the same material. It is true that plutonium reprocessing/recycling has not been cost-effective historically, and I would not advocate government subsidization of it. This process must be cost-effective, but possibly with a greater accounting of costs it would be considered so. The French certainly believe spent fuel recycling is worth the investment. Despite scares involving “plutonium hang-up” - the tendency for plutonium material to get stuck in pipes and fixtures at reprocessing facilities so as to create the impression that material has gone missing- the experience of France gives reason to believe that spent fuel recycling can be done safely and securely.

Where the train went off the rails was with the statement about 45 new nuclear power plants by 2030. Now I am not saying that McCain is self-medicating with medicinal marijuana, but he may want to get urine samples from his staff - starting with whomever gave him this suggestion. It is true that a number of advances have been made that could increase the speed of reactor deployment. The most notable of these is the shift to using a few standardized reactor designs instead of making each plant a unique entity unto itself. This cuts time in the early phases because the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) does not have to evaluate every aspect of the design every time, but rather whether the site is suitable and whether any design modifications are acceptable.

The above being said, there are a number of realities that make 45 reactors in less than a quarter of a century a difficult prospect to swallow.  First, there is a huge human capital deficit. The skilled craftsman and engineers needed for an undertaking of this scope are not available. The US certainly hasn’t been producing them at the rate needed for such a boom, because we haven’t been building new nuclear power plants in recent decades. It is true that we should not need to think solely within our own borders. However, besides the French, much of the rest of the world has seen a lull in new reactor production as well - at least since Chernobyl. Furthermore, one can expect all manner of delays resulting from attempting to use international firms. Consider what happened to the Air Force when they made the dread mistake of giving a contract to the lowest bidder who offered to make a plane meeting their specs (which happened to be a consortium including European Aeronautic Defence and Space company [EADS]). That is, one can expect political fall-out, perhaps even considering the security ramifications of having foreign firms build something as sensitive as nuclear reactors. Not that there should be any problem, but nor should there have been with a Dubai company contracting to manage US ports, but one should expect hang-ups due to alarmism and nationalist sentiment.

Second, there will be political resistance every step of the way. It may be true that resistance of the American citizenry to nuclear power seems to be waning, and that the greatest supporters of nuclear power are those who have a nuclear plant in their communities already. (People often point out that this effect is because the nuclear plant is the bread and butter of such locales. True enough, but if they were having 8-toed 3-eyed babies it would hard to imagine that the support wouldn’t falter.) All this being said, there is still a vocal faction of the populace that will drag their feet every step of the way, and who have the political acumen to succeed in holding things up.

My final point is that the utilities who would be the ones actually building these plants would have to be ready, willing, and able to plonk down a lot of money over a relatively short time-frame in an investment with an uncertain future. Not that there is a particularly great deal of uncertainty, but the future is always uncertain. Carbon sequestration technology improvements might make nuclear an uncompetitive producer of base-load power compared with coal - even with the costs of carbon included, or any number of other events could occur (a freak accident causing panic) that could make the investment flop. McCain may intend to offer public financial support. Such a plan suffers a couple problems. One is a political resistance problem not only from the aforementioned anti-nuclear power establishment, but also from the coal suppliers, mining labor, etc. Nuclear competes with coal as a base-load power supply, and the coal establishment has a right to resist subsidization of its competitor. The other thing is that we are running persistent national debt, and, in my opinion, we should avoid shoveling more money into government subsidization of for-profit firms.

I could be wrong about this, but these words will long be forgotted by 2030. Of course, I suspect Senator McCain was thinking the same thing. Barring breakthroughs in genetics or cyrogenics, I don’t think anyone will be holding the good Senator accountable.

Este vídeo é sobre Abu Dhabi. Mostra um plano para a chegada do ano de 2030, onde a população será três vezes maior que hoje, ou seja, 3 milhões de pessoas.

SIGNAL: NASA’s 50th anniversary - thanks!

COMMENT: The way is the goal?

When I was a little boy my parents did wake me up in the midst of the night to show me some live pictures from the moon – one of my earliest memories. So that was one big step, you know. Hmm, but in which direction, to what purpose? Is a budget of $17.3 billion p.a. (PDF, nasa.gov) justified by the results? To be honest a good part of research in space is done in a selfreferential manner. There are so much problems in space for the human organism, that one first has to research the consequences and measurements of zero gravity etc.

ANALYTICAL EXCURSE: Some archaic patterns lurking in the background?

Remember the Challenger and Columbia catastrophe – with the loss of the whole crew, transmissioned live to millions of people. There is so much trouble in space and while the start an reentry that a sober analysis comes to the conclusion that there are some “irrational motives” behind that high risk manned trips.

My very personal stance is, that there is a strong ideological component even after the cold war space race. It is as if the humankind of the Western hemisphere manifests core values in an archaic human sacrifice from time to time. A lot of space experiments could be made by semi-autonomous robots - they need not to sleep and are no source of permanent vibrations. Why do we not switch to more unmanned trips? Be brave to ask yourself: Is there a common root deep in the ground between “enlighted” modernism and the “monstrous and dark” djihad mind set? Time to see the “modernist fundamentalism” and to analyze the blind spots.

RELEVANCE: Space research is earth research too

Our planet is in danger – that is what we learn every day. We need a lot of knowledge to come to terms with the consequences of our “too successful” breed of homo sapiens sapiens. Time will tell whether the cognitive, moral, structural and technological ressources are there to recognize and realize the right measurements. Sometimes I ask myself what else we have to know before we start action? But of course, the system earth is really complicated and the more we know the more precise we can interact – and regain some control (when there is not too much nonlinearity anyway).

WARNING: Mars trips are an illusion – and an effective PR trick

There is this paragraph 1.6.4 on the Wikipedia – “Man on Mars”

On September 28, 2007, NASA administrator Michael D. Griffin stated that NASA aims to put a man on Mars by 2037, and in 2057, “We should be celebrating 20 years of man on Mars.” (WP)

Sorry, but as long as there is no breakthrough technology for cheap and fast space travel the public should know:

What we have done up to now is a really huge, complex and expensive thing, but it is nothing in comparison with a project called “manned Mars trip”!

Sorry, but when I hear someone talk about “colonizing the Mars” I think that there is a lack of knowledge or of honesty. As a futurist and tech analyst I know that sometimes a “disruptive innovation” changes the game completely. What I say is, that it is an irresponsible attitude to produce false hopes in the public, that there is a kind of second earth, a substitute, when we made a mess of our home planet. There is none. So, when water has been detected on Mars some weeks ago, the news has been distributed with the connotation that this means something - and as if we are short from terraforming Mars. First, in the science dimension the “news” is more than four years old, (Mars Express Sees Its First Water - Jan. 23, 2004, sciencedaily.com). Second, compared with the obstacle to travel the distance (even oneway trip) and build some meaningful structure on Mars, water is not the big issue …

CONCLUSION: Unless there is some breakthrough technology, we better do not talk of “space travel”

In a literal sense there are no “astro”nauts and “cosmo”nauts, we just made tiny jumps in the gravity zone of our planet – to our vast and rocky moon. But there is serious work to do – and ok, we can talk about a moon station and the advantages of it in the near future.

Update 2008-07-30 LT 11:28

• Concerning the controversial “psychoanalysis” of the manned space exploration see my comment beneath, quote: “Some Mars trip evangelists are a bit desperate (realizing the facts) in the last time and now there are proposals for a “A One-Way, One-Person Mission to Mars” (Jim McLane and Nancy Atkinson, http://www.universetoday.com/2008/03/04/a-one-way-one-person-mission-to-mars/ what takes us back to the irrational and archaic part - the “human sacrifice” for the “tin god of progress” or something like that.”

According to a study done at John Hopkins School of Public Health entitled Will All Americans Become Overweight or Obese? Estimating the Progression and Cost of the US Obesity Epidemic, “86 percent of Americans are going to be overweight or obese by 2030.” Furthermore, Black women and Hispanic men, the two groups at the bottom of the income scale (who subsequently have the least health insurance coverage), are also the two most at-risk groups. O rly??

This is why I cringe at the popularity of shows like 30 Minute Meals and recipes that are “quick and easy”/ call for prepackaged everything. What kind of “recipe” calls for jarred this and canned that? Any stoned college student with a microwave and an imagination could write 99% of the recipes Real Simple and other such magazines. I really wish people CARED about their food these days! No more of this “I don’t have time” bullshit. It’s that exact attitude that’s killing us. Make the fucking time and you will add years to your life, guaranteed.

Ever since man has started grasping the logic of Time and Space… he has been equally excited and worried about what to expect ahead. We all do in one way or the other I suppose.

When will our next salary come? When are we going to die? What will become of the world after a 100 years? The list is of course endless.

WeCite’s Fauzan and myself have taken some time to provide you a fraction of the answers to what the future holds. We might not be able to predict your death (because some things better be left to Faith and Fate alike), but we can tell you of some exciting and amazing things that are set to happen till the 23rd century!

We are in the 21st century by the way… in case you did not know!

While the chairman of Microsoft Corporation, Bill Gates is set to step down from daily duties after three decades on July 31 this year (shoot yourself right now if you did not know this!), we will start our estimations and predictions from the year 2009 and move forward 2009… 2010… 2015… 2020… 2030… 2040… and so forth.

Please note that these predictions are based on current trends and estimates. If things don’t happen the way they are listed here, you better not blame us! The list does not cover each and every event that would happen around the world. So if you are looking forward to finding out of they would ever make the sequel to Sex and The City, you’re on the wrong website! Sorry!

On a personal note, both Fauzan and I have been swept by amazement and sadness while compiling this list. There are certain events that only our children or our children’s children will witness or hear of. The likes of us would have long perished… returned from where we came from… dust to dust. The future holds many hopes and promises. It also holds warnings and disasters in the making. The decisions we take now, in our present, can affect the outcome that our next generations will either enjoy or suffer from.

So read on fellow earthlings, about what is yet to unfold…

[ 2009 ]

JANUARY

• Czech Republic takes over the Presidency of the Council of the European Union from France.
• Slovakia will adopt the Euro as the nation’s official currency.
• Norway will legalize same-sex marriage, and Hungary will recognize registered partnerships.

FEBRUARY

• Analog television broadcasts will end in the United States, as the Federal Communications Commission will require all stations to send their signals digitally.
• The 81st Academy Awards will be held at the Kodak Theater in Hollywood, California.

JUNE - Opening of the tallest man-made structure, the Burj Dubai in Dubai, UAE.

SEPTEMBER - The Burj Dubai, the world’s tallest building, will be completed.

Canada’s ISAF commitment in Afghanistan expires.

The United Kingdom will establish a Supreme Court, comprising the twelve former Law Lords.

Microsoft’s next client operating system, known as Windows 7 will be released to manufacturing in the second half of 2009.

Intel plans to release as many as five new microprocessor variants of the Nehalem microarchitecture throughout the year. The Beckton variant may have as many as eight cores.

[ 2010 ]

APRIL — International Space Station construction will be completed.

JUNE 11 — Start of the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa.

JULY 11 — Final Match of the 2010 FIFA World Cup scheduled to play at Soccer City stadium in Johannesburg.

JULY 13 — Support will be canceled for Microsoft Windows 2000, which was put on extended support in 2005.

SEPTEMBER 11 — “Freedom Tower,” the office building replacing the World Trade Center after its destruction on September 11, 2001 in New York, NY, will be completed.

The Chicago Spire will be completed. It will be the tallest building and freestanding structure in North America.

Australia, Austria, Germany, Malta and Spain will cease analog television broadcasts.

Australia will have also phased out the incandescent light bulb.

Israel will complete its Security Barrier and will use it as the basis for the definitive border between Israel and a Palestinian state, according to Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, as reported March 10, 2006 by the Wall Street Journal and many other newspapers and other news media. All Israeli settlements not protected by the barrier will have been evacuated.

The UK’s analog TV Signal will be switched off in this year in favor of digital TV with HTV West and STV being the areas to switchover.

[ 2015 ]

JULY 17 — Analogue television will be switched off in Ukraine.

SEPTEMBER 9 — If alive, Queen Elizabeth II will become the longest-reigning monarch in British History, surpassing Queen Victoria’s 63 years on the throne.

DECEMBER 31 — Analogue television will be switched off in the Philippines.

The United States Navy will commission USS Gerald R. Ford, the first ship in a new class of super-carriers.

The winning nation for the 2022 Winter Olympics will be announced by the IOC.

Adolf Hitler’s Mein Kampf enters the public domain.

NASA Solar Probe, will orbit the Sun

ESA Solar Orbiter (SOLO), will orbit the Sun to perform close observations of the polar regions of the Sun

[ 2020s ]

[The 2020s is the 3rd decade of the 21st century of the Anno Domini era. It will begin on January 1, 2020 and end on December 31, 2029]

[ 2020 ]

MARCH 2 — Yahoo! Inc.’s 25th birthday; opening of the Yahoo! Time Capsule.

NOVEMBER 3— Presidential election and 117th Congressional election in the United States

Last nuclear power plant in Germany will be shut down this year.

British newspaper The Guardian published a series of magazines in September 2004 predicting life in 2020. These predictions include widespread use of artificially intelligent cars, “smart” clothing incorporating computer chips, and green energy sources.

World population is expected to reach 7.6 billion people.

The Russian Federal Space Agency says that they plan to be mining helium-3 from the moon by this year.

China will probably also land astronauts on the Moon by 2020, according to Scientific American, March 2008.

Following countries become developed counties

• Trinidad and Tobago (under the Vision 2020 development plan initiated by Prime Minister Patrick Manning).
• Malaysia, under the Wawasan 2020 plan initiated by former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad.
  
• India as per their 2020 Vision
• Chile
• Brazil

The People’s Republic of China has stated it intends to take back Taiwan under Chinese rule at latest by 2020. China will also become more economically powerful than the United States by 2020, according to Mearsheimer 1991: 398.

If current trends continue, according to the United Nations, the Aral Sea could disappear completely by this year.

[ 2021] - NASA will have colonized the moon with scientists for more Mars research

Solar scientists predict that, by 2020, the sun will be starting into its weakest Schwabe solar cycle of the past two centuries.

By mid-decade, Alpine glaciers are likely to contain only half their 1970’s volume.

NASA expects to land another group of astronauts on the moon.

Voyager 2 is expected to stop transmitting back to Earth in the 2020s^.

[ 2022 ] - Elizabeth II will celebrate her Platinum Jubilee - if she is still alive by that date.

[ 2023 ]

• The People’s Republic of China will have outlasted the Soviet Union as the longest-lasting communist system (74 years, considering the Soviet Union lasted from 1917 to 1991).
• The Dominican Republic becomes a developed country.

[ 2026 ] - At current population growth rates, India will surpass China as the world’s most populous country.

[ 2027 ] - Release of FBI documents pertaining to Martin Luther King, Jr. and Elvis Presley autopsy reports.

[ 2028 ] - Institution of the Afro as the official currency of the African Union.

[ 2028 ] - The world population will reach 8 billion people.

[ 2029 ]

• The FBI will have permission to reveal to the public the Top Secret papers on John F. Kennedy’s assassination.
• Futurist Ray Kurzweil puts 2029 as the year most likely for a breakthrough in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). He expects that around this time, computers will reach human intelligence levels, and shortly thereafter surpass the capabilities of the human brain

[ 2030 ]

FIFA’s World Cup will have its 24th edition, 100 years after the first one. Uruguay is often mentioned as a possible host for this edition, because it hosted the inaugural edition in 1930 and there is even a project called Uruguay 2030 but, so far, no countries have yet officially offered to host the tournament.

The song Happy Birthday to You will enter the public domain in the United States.

World population will reach 8.2 billion people

All New Zealand cars will be hybrid, bio-fuel, or electric.

[ 2032 ]

• Ahmed Ressam released from post-imprisonment supervision. Also known as “The Millennium Bomber”, Ahmed was convicted and given a prison sentence of 22 years in a plot to bomb Los Angeles International Airport on New Year’s Eve 1999.
• Expected completion of the Future Force Warrior project of the United States Army.

[ 2033 ] - The ESA’s Aurora programme will send a manned spacecraft to Mars.

[ 2034 ] - On December 17 this year, provided current population trends continue and there is no significant event that affects world population, the population of the earth will surpass 10 billion.

[ 2037 ]

• Certain documents relating to Elizabeth Bowes-Lyon occupied the ’s wishes to preserve a monarchy if the Nazis occupied the UK are to be released from the Royal Archives.
• NASA will make a manned trip to Mars (News reports, September 25, 2007

[ 2038 ]

• On January 19, a common computing representation of date and time will overflow with potential results similar to the year 2000 problem (Y2K).
• The 26th FIFA World Cup will take place. The current FIFA World Cup Trophy might be retired, having run out of slots in which to engrave the names of the winners.

[ 2039 ] - In November this year, the Warren Commission, containing details of the John F. Kennedy Assassination, will be released to the public

[ 2040 ]

64th presidential election in the United States.

Scientists predict that by 2040 most of the Arctic ice cap will have melted away - all of it in the summer months - and the Polar bear will probably be extinct in the wild.

[ 2042 ] - The time capsule at Nickelodeon Studios in Orlando, Florida is to be opened. The studio was closed in 2005, and the capsule was relocated to Nickelodeon Family Suites in Orlando in December 2006.

[ 2043 ] -

• Indian Economy Surpasses US Economy, predicted by Goldman Sachs
• Estimated year that the U.S. will reach 400 million in population.

[ 2046 ] - The first baby boomers will turn 100 this year.

2046 - Robotics experts predict that around this time most work in advanced industrial nations will be done by Robots (news reports, December 2006).

[ 2048 ]

• The world is projected to run out of harvestable seafood stock.
• A time capsule in Tulsa, Oklahoma containing a Plymouth Prowler will be opened. It was sealed in 1998
• Asteroid 2007 VK184 has a chance of 1 in 2700 of hitting the earth in this year.

[ 2050s ]

Achim Steiner, executive director of the United Nations Environment Program, “warned of a global collapse by 2050 of all species being fished, if fishing continues at its current pace.”

World population is predicted to reach 9 billion people.

[ 2054 ]

• Chinese man, Meng Zhaoguo’s alien child will be born. See Meng Zhaoguo Incident.
• Hawksbill Creek Agreement tax exempt status is scheduled to expire.
• Michael X’s file in the British National Archive remains classified until the 1st of January 2054.

[ 2060s ]

Isaac Newton predicted that the world, according to his interpretation of The Bible, would end no sooner than 2060

According to Dane Rudhyar, a leading astrologer of the 1970s, the Age of Aquarius will begin in 2062.

[ 2070s ]

[ 2074 ] - The Green Wall of China is scheduled to be completed.

[ 2075 ] - The United Nations estimates that the world population will be 9.1 billion

[ 2080s ]

[ 2082 ] - All classified information held by the British Government about the Falklands War is to be released to the public

[ 2090s ]

[ 2096 ] - Material from the Cullen Inquiry into the Dunblane school shootings in UK, which was subject to a 100-year closure order, will be released to the public.

[ 2100s ]

By 2100, 12% (about 1250) of the bird species existing at the beginning of the 21st century are expected to be extinct or threatened with extinction, according to the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, July 4, 2006.

A time capsule in Sneem, Ireland will be opened.

A time capsule in Bangor, Northern Ireland will be opened.

[ 2107 ] - Last year which can be represented using the File Allocation Table date format.

[ 2200s ]

[The 22nd century of the Common Era will span the years 2101–2200]

There will be 239 lunar eclipses in the 22nd century.

A total solar eclipse exceeding 7 minutes of totality will occur on June 25, 2150^. This will be the first time this has happened in 177 years; the last one occurred on June 30, 1973 when the Concorde prototype followed the totality spot during 73 minutes. But eclipse fans of this epoch will not have to wait nearly so long for it to happen again, as on July 5, 2168 an eclipse with 7 minutes and 26 seconds of totality will occur. Lastly, on July 16, 2186 an eclipse of 7 minutes and 29 seconds (close to the theoretical maximum) will occur. This is predicted to be the longest eclipse during the 8,000 year period from 3000 BC to AD 5000 (eclipse predictions by Fred Espenak, NASA/GSFC.DEPP). All three long-duration eclipses are a part of the same Saros series, Saros 139.

[ 2300s ]

[The 23rd century of the anno Domini (common) era will span the years 2201 – 2300 of the Gregorian calendar]

[ 2295 ] - The US population is predicted to reach its first one billion inhabitants under current growth trends.

According to Rashad Khalifa, a man who claimed to be a messenger of God, and claimed to discover a divine mathematical miracle in the Quran, used the Mysterious Initials in the Quran to predict that the world will end in the year 2280

McCain has offered American voters 2 gimmicks:
1) An authorization for oil corporations to drill in the OCS (but not the Rockies or the ANWR) and
2) A petrol tax holiday.

These gimmicks shouldn’t be enacted because:
1) a) According to the USDOE, the OCS wouldn’t yield any oil until 2030 - i.e. 22 years from now.
b) The OCS is not enough. The ANWR, if McCain also opened it to drillers, contains enough oil for 800 days (i.e. 9 bn barrels of oil. America consumes 20 mn barrels of oil everyday). So the ANWR alone could serve America as an oil source for 800 days (more than 2 years). For 800 days, it could serve not only the transport-related sector, but also everyone else. There are also economically-feasible oil shale reserves in the Rockies.
c) Dubya’s executive order on OCS alone reduced the price of oil by $9/barrel. A Congressional abolition of the ban on the OCS, the Rockies and the ANWR, if signed by a president, could also reduce oil prices. Why not sign such an abolition, then, if a Congress approves it?
2) a) It wouldn’t significantly reduce petrol prices.
b) It would deprive the Freeway Fund of cash, which is needed to maintain freeways.
c) Without freeways, American cars would consume more petrol than they do. (Which is why Dubya, an oil driller, endorsed that proposal.)

Instead, McCain should propose these things:
1) This plan:
2) This plan:
3) This plan:
4) This plan:
http://zbigniewmazurak.wordpress.com/2008/06/23/a-complete-list-of-my-political-proposals-related-to-the-us/

rhona mitra/bob hoskins/craig conway/david o’hara–dir. neil marshall

“Doomsday” sau ” Mad Max 2008″ ?! Povestea este simpla si in mare urmareshte acelasi fir epic, continuind povestea din precedentele serii “Mad MAx”, numai ca de data asta actziunea se petrece in Anglia. O epidemie izbucneshte in Scotia, care este imediat izolata de un zid uriash de otzel. Apoi peste cateva zeci de ani, aceeashi epidemie izbucneshte si in Anglia, shi o echipa din fortzele speciale este trimisa inapoi in Scotzia sa aduca un antidot….numai ca aici nimeresc in mijlocul a doua triburi de supravietzuitori, care se lupta pt suprematzie intre ele.Deshi subiectul a mai fost tratat de nenumarate ori, filmul nu dezamageshte, adica livreaza fix ceea te ashteptzi de la el si de la genul asta de filme, asha ca, dupa parerea mea, merita sa ii alocatzi doua ore din viatza :)))                VIEW TRAILER