Seth Shostack, unul dintre oamenii de stiinta din cadrul SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence), a facut o declaratie soc atunci cand a sustinut, in cadrul unei conferinte de presa, ca anul 2025 va fi unul decisiv pentru descoperirea vietii extraterestre.

„Il vom gasi pe ET in mai putin de 20 de ani”, si-a inceput Shostack discursul din San Francisco. Afirmatiile astronomului se bazeaza pe faptul ca omenirea va avea pana la aceasta data tehnologia necesara pentru a scruta la 500 de ani lumina in spatiu, acolo unde „cu siguranta se afla mii de emitatoare radio extraterestre care transmit in eter”
„Daca prezumtiile noastre sunt corecte, oamenii vor putea intra in contact cu forme de viata extraterestre aflata in propria noastra galaxie. Conform teoriei savantului Frank Drake, numai in Calea Lactee ar trebui sa existe peste 10.000 de civilizatii capabile sa creeze emitatoare radio”, afirma acelasi Shostak.Proiectul SETI, cel care trebuia sa se ocupe cu descoperirea potentialelor semnale extraterestre, a fost finantat de NASA pana in anii ’90, atunci cand fondurile au fost sistate din cauza „lipsei de rezultate”. De atunci, SETI s-a bazat pe voluntari si finantari particulare pentru a putea descoperi, ceea ce specialistii numesc viata extraterestra inteligenta.

Intre 21 si 30 noiembrie va avea loc LA Auto Show, al doilea show auto (ca marime) al Americii dupa cel de la Detroit. Inaintea salonului, pe 20 noiembrie, va fi un concurs de design auto (bineinteles) - Design Challenge: Motorsports 2025 care ii va provoca pe unii dintre cei mai talentati designeri auto sa realizeze masini sportive/de curse pentru anul 2025. Ce mai mari producatori auto ai lumii au raspuns provocarii si au venit cu diverse abordari. Conceptele care vor intra in competitie vor fi: Audi R25, BMW Hydrogen Powered Salt Flat Racer, GM Chaparral Volt, Honda The Great Race 2025, Mazda KAAN, Mitsubishi MMR25, Mercedes Formula Zero, Toyota LeMans Racer si Volkwagen Bio Runner. Dintre toate cea mai spectaculoasa mi se pare abordarea celor de la Mazda cu al lor KAAN.

Mazda KAAN a fost creata de 6 designeri care s-au inspirat din natura pentru a crea o forma cat mai aerodnamica. Masina este 100% electrica si se presupune ca va atince in jur de 400km/h fara a afecta mediul inconjurator cu emisii poluante.

Conceptul este insotit si de o poveste: Se presupune ca Mazda KAAN va concura in campionatul de curse E1, cele care vor fi in 2025 culmea tehnologiei in cursele auto. E1 probabil pt ca vor fi numai masini eco si pentru ca probail campionatul va fi in locul celui de F1. Energia necesara motoarelor electrice va fi luata direct de pe suprafata pistei care va fi acoperita cu un polymer electro-conductiv la fel ca si rotile masinii. Aceasta tehnologie se pare ca este deja pantentata de catre Mazda.

Cursele vor avea un format asemator cu cel al curselor de ciclism de astazi si anume: fiecare masina va avea un singur pilot insa o echipa va fi formata din 30 de masini. Presupunand ca vor exista mai multe echipe ne dam seama ca vor fi destul de multe masini pe pista. Victoria o vor avea cei cu cea mai buna strategie de echipa. Cu cat masinile stau mai grupate cu atat vor intampna mai putina rezistenta la inaintare din partea aerului si in cosencinta vor rula mai rapid.

Mai multe imagini ->

Today’s Affirmation:

“Determination…I push my limits and I achieve great things.” (click to hear it now)

Space represents such an opportunity for humanity. It is chance for us to work together on something important to all of us.

As The United States has largely rejected its space heritage in recent decades, other nations have stepped up in its place.

Today India took a major step forward in its space program by launching its first unmanned mission to the Moon. It joins its Asian counterparts Japan and China who already have craft orbiting our nearest celestial neighbor.

India’s craft dubbed Chandrayaan-1 - “Mooncraft” in ancient Sanskrit - lifted off today from the Satish Dhawan Space Centre in Sriharikota, India. The launch site is located on India’s southeast coastline near India’s largest city Chennai.

For longtime readers of this blog, you know I love space. It is my belief that space exploration poses challenges and offers economic opportunities that could fundamentally alter how humans interact on Earth.

It is my firm belief that the global war economy - sadly still far and away Earth’s largest industry - could easily be replaced by a global space economy. In fact, I would argue that economic reasons are the primary driver of wars on our planet. Our planet could be fundamentally improved by the substitution of space exploration for war.

Chandrayaan-1’s two-year mission is to provide the most detailed maps ever of Earth’s nearest neighbor and set the stage for landing an unmanned craft on the Moon’s surface by 2012.

Last October Japan successfully placed it’s Kaguya moon vehicle in orbit around the moon (view Earthrise and Earthset videos from Kaguya). The Japanese have set a goal of 2025 for placing a manned mission on the surface of the moon.

China’s Chang’e vehicle has also been orbiting the Moon for nearly a year now. Russia has announced plans to land on the Moon around 2025 and even NASA has announced plans to return by 2020.

This transition to a spacefaring race is a positive step. Just as human beings the world over took pride in the accomplishment of landing humans on the Moon July 20, 1969; everyone can take pride as other nations continue to push the envelope of exploration in our Solar System.

So it is in a spirit of common cause, common hopes, and common dreams that I congratulate India on its accomplishment today. May Chandrayaan-1 expand human knowledge about the Moon and bring closer the day when humans work together to travel the stars.

That’s one giant step for India and one giant leap for humans in space.

Stay inspired!

Ray

PERANAN LITBANG KESELAMATAN NUKLIR UNTUK MENDUKUNG PEMANFAATAN SISTEM ENERGI NUKLIR DALAM MEMENUHI KEBUTUHAN ENERGI NASIONAL

LATAR BELAKANG

Terjadinya krisis energi dunia, khususnya dengan melonjaknya harga minyak dunia, telah berdampak buruk terhadap kebutuhan energi nasional dan dikhawatirkan akan memicu pada krisis ekonomi yang lebih buruk. Sementara, sistem energi nasional secara umum masih mengandalkan sumber energi konvensional. Sistem pembangkit listrik nasional termasuk sektor yang saat ini secara terus-menerus masih menggunakan batu bara, minyak, panas bumi dan gas sebagai sumber energinya. Berbagai alternatif dalam rangka memenuhi kebutuhan energi nasional, terutama listrik, telah diambil pemerintah, salah satunya dengan pemanfaatan energi baru dan terbarukan yang telah dimaklumatkan di dalam Kebijakan Energi Nasional (KEN), termasuk beberapa peraturan yang mendukung ke arah kebijakan tersebut telah dibuat. Sistem energi nuklir sebagai salah satu bagian dari pemanfaatan energi baru dan terbarukan tercantum dalam konsep KEN, meskipun pemanfaatannya untuk memenuhi kebutuhan energi hingga tahun 2025 masih relatif sedikit. Sehingga peranan litbang untuk mendukung pemanfaatan sistem energi nuklir menjadi lebih penting, disamping perkembangan IPTEK nuklir juga semakin maju. Agenda Riset Nasional (ARN) tahun 2006-2009 telah mencantumkan litbang energi nuklir yang memperjelas arah dan tujuan litbang energi nukir. Salah satu hal yang terpenting dalam pemanfaatan energi nuklir adalah sistem keselamatan nuklir yang mendukung integritas Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Nuklir (PLTN) agar aman selama operasi maupun saat terjadinya kecelakaan. Sehingga litbang terkait keselamatan nuklir untuk mendukung pemanfaatan sistem energi nuklir dalam memenuhi kebutuhan energi nasional menjadi aktivitas litbang yang penting. Peranan litbang terkait keselamatan nuklir tidak hanya menjadi tugas dan fungsi BATAN selaku lembaga litbang nuklir, namun peranan lembaga litbang lainnya, perguruan tinggi, perusahaan dan masyarakat juga menjadi faktor penentu dalam keberhasilan litbang energi nuklir, khususnya teknologi dan keselamatannya.

TUJUAN

Sebagai wadah saling tukar informasi terkait hasil-hasil penelitian, kajian dan ulasan tentang teknologi reaktor, keselamatan PLTN dan fasilitas nuklir serta diseminasi IPTEK nuklir. Sekaligus seminar ini diharapkan menjadi media dalam pembentukan kerjasama litbang keselamatan nuklir antar lembaga litbang, perguruan tinggi, swasta dan masyarakat.

SASARAN

Penguatan pengetahuan dan wawasan pada kalangan perguruan tinggi, swasta dan masyarakat terkait hasil litbang nuklir, khususnya keselamatan nuklir.

Pemahaman yang komprehensip terhadap fisika & teknolgi reaktor, keselamatan fasilitas nuklir & teknologinya, keselamatan nuklir & lingkungan, daur bahan bakar nuklir & manajemen limbah, serta aspek ekonomi & sosial energi nuklir.

RUANG LINGKUP

Fisika dan Teknologi Reaktor

Riset dan kajian fisika reaktor & neutronik, fisika energi (perpindahan panas), termohidrolika & perubahan fasa, sistem pembangkit, sistem instrumentasi & kendali, jenis-jenis PLTN serta bidang keilmuan lainnya (kimia, biologi) yang terkait dengan teknologi yang diaplikasi dalam reaktor nuklir.

Keselamatan Fasilitas Nuklir dan Teknologinya

Riset dan kajian perkembangan teknologi keselamatan PLTN yang mencakup sistem primer, sekunder, sistem pendukung reaktor dan fasilitas sekitar gedung PLTN dan fasilitas nuklir, perawatan dan perbaikan fasilitas nuklir, elektronika & IT dalam lingkup IC untuk keselamatan selama operasi dan kecelekaan. Prosedur pengoperasian dan manajemen kecelakaan pada PLTN. Pemanfaatan paket komputer untuk analisis kecelakaan.

Keselamatan Nuklir dan Lingkungan

Riset dan kajian IPTEK yang mendukung penanganan keselamatan selama operasi dan kecelakaan PLTN, dimana riset terkait pencegahan dan mitigasi pelepasan radiasi ke lingkungan serta pemantauan lingkungan. Radioekologi lingkungan (darat, laut dan udara) dan efek pencemaran lingkungan.

Daur Bahan Bakar Nuklir dan Manajemen Limbah

Riset dan kajian daun bahan bakar nuklir, penyimpanan bahan bakar, pengelolaan limbah nuklir dan perkembangan teknologi limbah dan manajemen limbah.

Aspek Ekonomi dan Sosial Energi Nuklir

Riset dan kajian aspek ekonomi pembangkit daya, khususnya nuklir. Penerimaan masyarakatak dan aspek sosial yang timbul pada masyarakat sekitar tapak, serta persoalan ekonomi & sosial lainnya yang terkait dengan fasilitas nuklir. Cadangan sumber energi dan optimalisasinya untuk kepentingan ekonomi dan sosial.

PEMBICARA UTAMA (RENCANA)

Pembicara seminar yang direncanakan akan hadir untuk memperkuat wawasan IPTEK Nuklir dan Keselamatan, adalah:

• Kepala BADAN TENAGA NUKLIR NASIONAL, Dr. Hudi Hastowo.
• Kepala BADAN PENGAWAS TENAGA NUKLIR, Dr.Ir. As Natio Lasman.
  
• Guru Besar Fakultas Teknik UI.

  Prof. Dr.Ing. Raldi Artono Koestoer, DEA

• Guru Besar FMIPA Universitas Padjadjaran (konfirmasi).

  Prof. Dr. Bernard Y. Tumbelaka
  Tema : “Peranan Instrumentasi dan Kontrol pada Sistem Keselamatan PLTN”

• TOTAL E & P Indonesie (konfirmasi).

  Prof. Deden Supriyatman
  Tema : “Risk Management in Industry”
  

PELAKSANAAN dan FASILITAS

Hari/tanggal: Rabu, 05 NOPEMBER 2008
Waktu : Pukul 07.30 – Selesai
Tempat : Aula UNPAD (Graha SANUSI HARDJADINATA) Jl. Dipatiukur No.35, Bandung
Fasilitas :Seminar Kit , Sertifikat, Snack & Makan siang.
(tidak dipungut biaya pendaftaran).

Lihat juga:

http://seminarpltn-ptrknbatan.web.id/

Post rated C. Pentru explicaţia rating-ului, apasă AICI înainte de a citi post-ul.

Mă-ntreb dacă am depăşit punctul făr’ de întoarcere sau mai avem puţin până la el? Momentul când schimbarea climatică este iremediabilă, deşi eforturile de încetinire a încălzirii globale nu vor fi niciodată de prisos.

Spun încetinire pentru că fenomenul este, momentan, imposibil de oprit. Probabil mai avem de aşteptat cel puţin 50 de ani pentru a opri complet eliminarea gazelor cu efect de seră.

Încep să cred că nu se va mai putea reface complet clima. Sau e nevoie de minţi luminate şi voinţă de fier pentru asta.

Al Gore a lansat în vara acestui an o provocare fără precedent în SUA (şi chiar în lume), aceea ca, până în 2018, electricitatea să fie produsă 100% din surse nepoluante. Sincer, mă îndoiesc de reuşită, având în vedere anvergura proiectului său, e foarte mult într-un timp atât de scurt. Cel mai mare poluator din lume vrea să devină lider mondial incontestabil în utilizarea energiei alternative. Imaginaţi-vă ce contribuţie ar avea acest pas în încetinirea încălzirii globale. Dar de ce este singura iniţiativă de acest fel?

Tendinţa este de a accepta că schimbarea climatică este ceva anormal şi, nu în ultimul rând, că este NAŞPA. Vor fi mereu sceptici, e normal, dar numărul lor se micşorează pe zi ce trece. Timpul va rezolva şi problema aceasta, dar sper să nu fie prea târziu.

E bine să te rogi pentru mai bine şi toţi îţi vom aprecia grija şi interesul.

Dar, din păcate, rugăciunea nu va rezolva multe lucruri. Important este să acţionezi şi să vrei sincer să faci ceva. Să te ridici şi să susţii, nu neapărat să iei cuvântul.

E nevoie de poluare? Copacii ne stau în cale şi încetinesc setea noastră de dezvoltare?

România se va autoprovoca vreodată? Se va autosesiza ?

Să dau idei?

Ce-ar fi să:

• oprim şi să interzicem distrugerea spaţiului verde în oraşe până în 2012? se poate să introducem şi sancţiuni severe?
• oprim complet tăierea pădurilor din România până în 2020? (citeşte şi aici)
• să se planteze cel puţin 100 ha de copaci pe an timp de 10 ani?
• să dotăm fiecare sală de clasă din şcoli şi licee cu coşuri de gunoi pentru hârtie şi plastic pentru ca apoi să fie reciclate (până în 2015)?
• să producem cel puţin 50% din electricitate din resurse regenerabile până în 2020?*
• să dotăm cel puţin 75% din casele din mediul rural cu panouri solare până în 2025? (aici şi aici)
• să dotăm toate instituţiie de învăţământ cu panouri solare până în 2030?
• să introducem ore de “protecţia mediului”?
• să conservăm cel puţin 90% din speciile de animale şi plante din ţară până în 2025?
• să izolăm termic toate blocurile până în 2020?
• să ne asigurăm că, până în 2015, toată populaţia României este conştientă de schimbarea climatică?
• să reciclăm 90% din obiectele făcute din materiale refolosibile în 2020?
• să transmitem lumii că vrem o schimbare?
• să transformăm România în cel mai bun exemplu de luptă împotriva încălzirii globale?
• să facem ceva, concret?

*reglementările UE ne cer doar 20%

Aqui les dejo el ESET Nod 32, un excelente programa para la proteccion de nuestros ordenadores de los archivos maliciosos y aplicaciones peligrosas para nuestro equipo.

Primero aqui esta la edicion para ordenadores con 32 bits.

El paquete incluye:

Archivo .EXE

Instrucciones ( viene un enlace para sacar los usuarios )

Fix Dasumo, actualizaciones hasta 2025

(click en la imagen para descargar)

El siguiente paquete, es para ordenadores que cuenten con SO basado en 64 bits.

El paquete incluye:

Instalador (.EXE)

Instrucciones.

(Click en la imagen para descargar)

Dans le même courant de pensée que le concours de la finale du Wif 2008 à Limoges qui s’intitulait : “A quoi ressemblera la communication par mail en 2020 et existera-t-elle encore ?”

Voici un superbe travail qui a été réalisé par un ingénieur, un écrivain et un photographe.

Bien sûr ce ne sera jamais exactement cela mais la touche donnée au tout d’un point de vue artistique et chimérique est tout bonnement splendide.

Les professions, les personnages, les âges, les façons de vivre sont autant de point qui rendent ce travail très intéressant.

Et vous, qu’en pensez-vous ?

On 12th of December 2005, one of the prominent Investment Bank, Goldman Sachs, released a report highlighting the subset of Emerging Markets with a high potential to become the Largest Economies in the World. This post is a detailed elaboration on that paper which can be found on: http://www2.goldmansachs.com/hkchina/insight/research/pdf/BRICs_3_12-1-05.pdf . The paper stated: 

“We also present a detailed study of the prospects for another set of developing countries, a group we call the N-11.the Next Eleven. Of them, only Mexico and perhaps Korea have the capacity to become as important globally as the BRICs, although many of them have compelling potential.“

 

 

Source: Page 3 of the Paper

It used the following as a measurement criteria:

“Macroeconomic stability: Inflation; government deficit; external debt

Macroeconomic conditions: Investment rates; openness of the economy

Technological capabilities: Penetration of PCs; phones; internet

Human capital: Education; life expectancy

Political conditions: Political stability; rule of law; corruption”

Source: Page 10 of the Paper

The countries it labelled as “Next 11″ were: Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, Vietnam (Source: page 7 of the Paper).

The point is to highlight the developing countries which are likely to become “big players” in the world’s economy, in future. Naturally, those countries are experiencing  high level of growth in their GDP, and if they continue to do so, will

Currently (by 2007) Pakistan is ranked as 47th (by International Monetary Fund), 45th (by World Bank) and 47th (by CIA World Factbook) in the list of largest economies in the world. (Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal))

Needless to say that Pakistan is expected to spur on it’s economical growth — become economically larger than countries like Saudia Arabia, Australia, Spain, Denmark, Belgium, Poland, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Portugal, Malaysia, Israel and so on — all of which are economically larger than Pakistan currently.

Naturally, countries which are huge in context of population and size will inevitably become substantially big economically. Consequently, Brazil, China, India and Russia will evidently become relatively huge even with a substantially low economical-growth rate, as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will increase substantially due to a large population. This is highlighted in the paper thus:

“In our initial report, we did exclude several other large

developing countries that have the potential to be much bigger economies in coming decades. We did not ignore South Africa.in fact we specifically showed how unlikely it would be that South Africa could reach the size of any of the BRICs despite its own potential. We excluded Indonesia, Pakistan, Turkey and some of the Middle Eastern nations that could become quite large, though may not have true BRICs potential. The reasons for excluding other candidates in our earlier studies were either because they lacked the potential to become large and important players (in many cases because they are just too small) or because we thought that fulfilling the conditions was an unrealistic assumption.” 

 

Source: Page 4 of the Paper

According to the paper, Pakistan scored well in “Schooling”, “Rule of Law”, “Life Expectancy” and ”External Debt”. Furthermore it highlighted that Pakistan needs to work on “Inflation”, “Investment”, “Openess”, “Technological Capabilities”, “Political Stability” and “Corruption”. The full results can be viewed on pages 15-17 of the report.

In conclusion, the future of Pakistan’s economy looks stronger and is predicted to straighten strongly. From the current 47th ranking in the list of Largest Economies, it’s ranking is predicted to change to 18th and 20th by 2025 and 2050 respectively. It must however be noted that the predictions are subject to fallacies just like any prediction and may very well turn out to be woefully wrong — for any country — due to incorrect parameters and the inherent fallacies in the computational model. Furthermore, the conditions within such countries must ensure economical growth — the governmental and economical reforms must ensure the spur in economy’s growth for any country, whether be it China or Pakistan, in order for them to reach their potential.

Given the reasonably well governance, Pakistan’s Economy is predicted to prosper, outpacing the economies of many of the “developed countries” of our time — indeed reaching the listing of Largest 20 Economies in the World by 2025.

In future, I intend on examining the Richest Countries (as opposed to the Largest, which we have examined here), comparing economies of Pakistan and other countries in terms of of the past and future, and analysing the recent economical reforms that Pakistan’s government has brought forth.

Blog on Pakistan: blogonpakistan@ymail.com (http://blogonpakistan.wordpress.com)

History of the article:

• Published the first version on 21/September/2008

One of the groups I have a lot of time for in Australia and one which I am planning to support in a more active way in the New Year (once I get back on my feet so to speak) is Bush Heritage Australia.

Bush Heritage Australia is actively seeking to protect 1% of Australia by 2025, ensuring the protection of our unique flora, fauna and wild places. This is done through purchasing land by money donated to it by those wanting to protect the Australian environment and natural heritage. Bush Heritage currently owns some 1 million hectares, meaning it needs to acquire a further 6 million hectares to obtain its 2025 goal.

In September 2008, Bush Heritage Australia purchased the 8 100 hectare Edgbaston Station, 140km north-east of Longreach in Queensland for 3.5 million dollars. In doing so, Bush Heritage has ensured the survival of Australia’s most endangered and smallest freshwater fish species, the Redfin Blue-Eye Fish. This region is the only location in which this fish species now lives.

But it is not only the Redfin Blue-Eye Fish that will be protected by the purchase of this property as this region and the springs found on the property is the only known habitat for several other species of fish, snails, plants and a crustacean.

The springs on Edgbaston Station are located in the upper catchment of Pelican Creek which flows into the Thompson River and Lake Eyre. There are some 50 artesian springs on the property, supporting a large diversity of life.

The 3.5 million dollars required for the purchase of Edgbaston Station included 1.324 Million dollars from the Australian government’s Maintaining Australia’s Biodiversity Hotspots program and donations from the Queensland Department of Natural Resources and Water and the Queensland Department for Sustainability, Climate Change and Innovation.

Bush Heritage will be working alongside of the Iningai people, who are the traditional owners of the land on which Edgbaston Station is located, to manage the property.

For information on what you can do to assist Bush heritage Australia or to get more information on any of the reserves managed by Bush heritage Australia visit the web site below.

http://www.bushheritage.org.au/

One of the groups I have a lot of time for in Australia and one which I am planning to support in a more active way in the New Year (once I get back on my feet so to speak) is Bush Heritage Australia.

Bush Heritage Australia is actively seeking to protect 1% of Australia by 2025, ensuring the protection of our unique flora, fauna and wild places. This is done through purchasing land by money donated to it by those wanting to protect the Australian environment and natural heritage. Bush Heritage currently owns some 1 million hectares, meaning it needs to acquire a further 6 million hectares to obtain its 2025 goal.

In September 2008, Bush Heritage Australia purchased the 8 100 hectare Edgbaston Station, 140km north-east of Longreach in Queensland for 3.5 million dollars. In doing so, Bush Heritage has ensured the survival of Australia’s most endangered and smallest freshwater fish species, the Redfin Blue-Eye Fish. This region is the only location in which this fish species now lives.

But it is not only the Redfin Blue-Eye Fish that will be protected by the purchase of this property as this region and the springs found on the property is the only known habitat for several other species of fish, snails, plants and a crustacean.

The springs on Edgbaston Station are located in the upper catchment of Pelican Creek which flows into the Thompson River and Lake Eyre. There are some 50 artesian springs on the property, supporting a large diversity of life.

The 3.5 million dollars required for the purchase of Edgbaston Station included 1.324 Million dollars from the Australian government’s Maintaining Australia’s Biodiversity Hotspots program and donations from the Queensland Department of Natural Resources and Water and the Queensland Department for Sustainability, Climate Change and Innovation.

Bush Heritage will be working alongside of the Iningai people, who are the traditional owners of the land on which Edgbaston Station is located, to manage the property.

For information on what you can do to assist Bush heritage Australia or to get more information on any of the reserves managed by Bush heritage Australia visit the web site below.

http://www.bushheritage.org.au/

usinenouvelle.com, le 5 septembre 2008

Environnement

Vers un monde de rareté en 2025  Deux rapports, commandés par l’association des entrepreneurs français sensibles à l’environnement (EPE), explorent les pistes de nouvelles gestions pour les ressources naturelles et pour l’eau d’ici 2025. Lire les deux rapports : Les ressources naturelles à l’horizon 2020 L’Eau à l’horizon 2025

Air Liquide, Areva, Coca-Cola, Leclerc, Solvay, Rhodia, Renault, SNCF, Vinci, Veolia : toutes souhaitent savoir de quoi aura l’air le monde en 2025. L’association française des entreprises pour l’Environnement, dont elles font partie, avait mis en place courant 2006 une commission « Prospective environnementale ». Objectif : contribuer à la recherche de solutions durables dans cinq domaines; la gestion de l’eau, l’économie des ressources naturelles, la biodiversité, les ressources énergétiques et l’évolution des comportements de consommation. Mercredi 3 septembre,  les chercheurs et ingénieurs de la commission ont présenté leurs premiers travaux sur les ressources naturelles et sur l’eau.

 « Moins de 3% de l’eau dans le monde est douce, dont 2,5% immobilisée sous forme de glace : l’humanité ne peut compter que sur les 0,5% restants pour répondre à ses besoins» rappelle l’étude prospective. Aujourd’hui, l’eau prélevée a trois usages : 70% pour l’agriculture, essentiellement à des fins d’irrigation ; 22% pour la production d’énergie, que ce soit de l’hydroélectricité ou de l’électricité thermique ou nucléaire; 8% pour les usages domestiques.

D’ici 2025, la population mondiale devrait dépasser les 8 milliards de personnes : la même quantité de ressource doit être partagée entre une population toujours plus nombreuse. Du côté des activités humaines, l’industrie, davantage que l’agriculture, causera la majeure partie de l’augmentation de la consommation d’eau d’ici 2025, prédit le rapport.

Le Groupe d’experts Intergouvernemental sur l’Evolution du Climat (GIEC) estime le réchauffement climatique à l’horizon 2025 à +1,6°C par rapport à la période préindustrielle. En vue, une complète disparition des petits glaciers dans les Andes, menaçant l’approvisionnement en eau de 50 millions de personnes, voire une réduction potentielle de 20-30% de la ressource en eau dans les régions vulnérables (sud de l’Afrique, Méditerranée). « D’ici à 2025, le nombre de personnes vivant en-dessous du seuil de stress hydrique atteindra 3 milliards, contre « seulement » 700 millions aujourd’hui, le problème s’intensifiant en Afrique subsaharienne, en Chine et en Inde », prévoit le rapport.

Quelles technologies pour l’eau en 2025. Les auteurs passent en revue les nouveaux outils technologiques en cours de développement pour augmenter la quantité d’eau douce disponible sans nuire à d’autres utilisateurs - recyclage et filtration de l’eau, récupération et réutilisation des eaux de pluie, dessalement d’eau de mer -, ou réduire son utilisation - accroissement du rendement agricole, réduction de l’intensité hydrique de certains procédés industriels, et systèmes de détection des fuites dans les réseaux. Ils se penchent en particulier sur les applications industrielles de ces procédés.

Le juste prix de l’eau potable. Les prix de l’eau potable ont augmenté en moyenne de 8% dans le monde au cours de l’année 2007, constate le rapport, et cette tendance devrait se poursuivre dans la plupart des pays dans les années à venir.

Les matières premières

« Les démographes estiment que la population mondiale va croître linéairement jusqu’à atteindre 9 milliards d’individus en 2050. En parallèle, les économistes fondent nombre de leurs modèles sur une multiplication par quatre du PIB mondial à l’horizon 2050 » précisent les auteurs. Pour faire face à la rareté des matières premières, les entreprises doivent intégrer dans leurs stratégies de court, moyen et long terme l’éco-conception de leurs produits et services, favoriser le recyclage, valoriser les matières en fin de vie et surtout privilégier l’éco-fonctionnalité. Quatre pistes explorées de façon pratique et appliquée à l’industrie dans le rapport. A.L.

I’ve been surprised by the sizable reaction to my bet with Tibor Pacher, not just in terms of comments here but in related e-mails. For those of you who missed the original post, I found Tibor’s prediction that the first interstellar mission would be launched by 2025 to be an irresistible target. Tibor posted the prediction on the Long Bets site, and the way this works is that someone willing to make a bet on the prediction puts down the money upfront and challenges the predictor to match it.

Negotiations follow, the outcome being that if the terms are worked out and the bet is accepted, it is finalized. Both parties send in their money, and the money grows over the years in a long-term investment portfolio called the Farsight Fund. Ultimately, either the Tau Zero Foundation or (Tibor’s choice) the SOS-Kinderdorf International, will enjoy the result.

Now that Tibor and I have finalized the terms, the details will go up on Long Bets as soon as our funds arrive (which should be in a few days). Until then, I thought you might be interested in some of the details we settled upon. Among other things, we have agreed that:

• The mission can be a manned or unmanned, either a flyby probe or a spacecraft intended to be captured by the target star’s gravitational field. The mission will have been designed expressly as a mission to another star, and as not an outer-Solar System mission that simply keeps going, with a star more or less along its route of flight.
• The allowed launch location of the spacecraft is any place in the Solar system within the orbit of Neptune, either from the surface of a Solar System body or from any orbital position.
• The mission duration must be less than 2000 years.
• As a minimum requirement for the mission the spacecraft shall be capable of delivering data for at least one scientific measurement.

The actual text of these details and a few other matters will be posted soon on the Long Bets site — I’ll provide the link once it’s available. And as I’ve told more than a few people, I would be delighted to be proven wrong on this matter, for it would mean that our technology is advancing at a far faster clip than I currently assume, and also that enough public support will exist to make such a mission possible. That sort of optimism (even though I think it’s premature) is a bracing tonic after the weekend’s loss of NanoSail-D, a solar sail deployment experiment.

I have to hand it to Paul and Tibor, they have a lot more optimism than I can claim, or wish to have. The loss of the light sail experiment makes number three loss that I know of ( previous Russian and Japanese experiments were destroyed during failed launches ). And of all provable mainstream concepts, this one is sure to work. If we can only get the damn things into orbit to test them!

Then maybe centuries hence, our descendants can have their own legend of The Lady Who sailed The Soul.

Of Solar Sails, Bets and Optimism

Przestępczość w Polsce - stan bieżący i perspektywy na przyszłość

Po naprawdę wnikliwej analizie statystyk wykrywalności przestępstw w Polsce, które dokładnie odwzorowują to, jak nasza policja sobie wspaniale radzi z wykrywaniem przestępstw i sprawców przygotowałem ten oto wykres prognostyczny. Dzięki niemu można już teraz określić, że przy obecnym wspaniałym tempie wykrywalności przestępstw już w 2025 roku nasz kraj będzie całkowicie wolny od złodziei, morderców, gwałcicieli i wolnomyślicieli. A później nie, nie zostanie odkryta maszyna do powrotu do przeszłości! Ale policja i bez niej będzie łapać sprawców nim jeszcze dokonają przestępstw. Dlatego wykrywalność po 2025 będzie większa niż 100%! Boże chroń naszą zasłużoną policję!

Powrót do przyszłości

Terpicu dari berita Kompas, 18 Juli 2008, halaman 21, sedang dibuatkan peta konsepnya dari artikel “Mencari Manfaat dari Krisis Energi dan Pangan”.

Mencari Manfaat Dari Krisis Energi dan Pangan

Sur iseng googling untuk cari Indonesia Oil Production dan nemu gambar berikut. Melihat trendnya sih menurun terus.

Grafik Penurunan Produksi Minyak Indonesia

Kunjungi Dongeng Geologi untuk membaca lengkap artikel tentang Perminyakan

Target Kebijakan Energi Nasional (Energy Mix) 2006

Mustinya Pemerintah Indonesia menggalakkan upaya khusus untuk riset di bidang GeoThermal, Nuklir (kalau perlu di Kalimantan yang daratannya lebih stabil dan jarang kena gempa), Bio Massa yang ramah lingkungan (kebayangnya itu dari kotoran binatang atau lumpur jadi “bau”). Atau memanfaatkan Global Energy Flux.

Tahun 2025 adalah masa yang singkat apalagi kalau Pemerintah kita berlaku seperti sekarang-sekarang ini. Apa jadinya kalau kita kehabisan energi? Akankah kembali ke jaman batu, semua peralatan pakai batu, hidup di gua dan pakai kayu bakar (itupun kalau masih ada tersisa, karena hutan dibabat habis2an). Sedih juga melihat tanah-tanah sawah menderita kekeringan hebat karena hutannya tidak ada lagi menahan air tanah.

Tanah Sawah Mengering (ePaper.Kompas.com, 18.07.08, hal 22)

Tercetus ide dari membaca Blogger Day 2007 di Tempe, maka perlu ada Indonesia Blogger Day di kesempatan mendatang (Oktober 2008 kah?) untuk bersatu padu memikirkan solusi terhadap krisis yang dihadapi bangsa Indonesia tercinta ini.
Tapi perlu diawali bahwa saat ini dan mendatang bahwa kita sudah bukan saatnya untuk Dongeng-dongengan lagi.

Wake Up to Solar Energy

Mari rekan-rekan kita manfaatkan sarana PKAB sebagai media e-learning ini untuk mempelajari cara pembuatan Peta Konsep agar semuanya mendapatkan keahlian untuk membuatnya dan menerapkannya untuk mengatasi masalah yang kita dihadapi bersama pada Kelas-Jauh PKAB.

I wish I would have caught Evan Thomas’s post for Newsweek back in April, but I’m glad I saw it today:

“There was a time when candidates dared to ask for sacrifice on the campaign trail. Before the 1968 Indiana primary, Robert F. Kennedy advocated expanding health care to the poor. He was asked by a University of Indiana medical student, “Who will pay for it?” Kennedy answered, “You will.” The crowd gasped, then applauded. But that was a long time ago.”

Read the full post here:

http://www.newsweek.com/id/32821

I wish that Thomas–or someone equally capable–would expand upon this theme.  I took a small crack at it in February, in a speech to the Austin Anti Defamation League about the congruence of the notion empathy and the mission of the ADL:
……..”I think empathy really matters to Americans. Sometimes, though, it seems that the overdevelopment of some of our other muscles gets in the way of its practice.

When our celebrated talent for entrepreneurship and economic competition comes unhinged, and billionaires and the indigent uninsured seem to be in a contest to see who can grow more quickly.

When our long-standing sense of community mutates into a hyper suspicion of outsiders. And sure, we can be excused our economic and national security anxieties—god knows– we’ve earned them. But lately it feels like we’re in danger of forgetting what Reagan intended: the glow from our shining city was to be a beacon. Not a search light.

When our abiding optimism compromises our most important empathic relationship: the one we maintain with future generations of Americans. From Day One of the Republic, our ancestors sacrificed some measure of gratification to assure the well being of their progeny. Also known as—the people in this room.

How strange, then, that no real discussion of shared sacrifice has entered our politics for a generation. This, even though sacrifice seems a logical point of departure for almost any serious discussion of policy: fiscal, environmental, education, energy, health care…you name it.

Somewhere along the way, two big, important ideas: “sacrifice” on the one hand and “optimism” on the other–became mutually exclusive. No big surprise which idea always wins, as an almost obnoxious “optimism” has become table stakes for *any* serious candidate running for *any* office. You might say that in a referendum against optimism, sacrifice is assured burial in a landslide.

We often hear about “third rail” issues in American politics—issues so powerfully charged that they electrocute any leader who comes near them. You know the litany: social security, Medicare, drug legalization, conscription; the list doesn’t need any additions.

But I’ll propose one, anyway: It seems to me that *sacrifice* has become the *ultimate* third rail in American politics. We fry our leaders when they touch it, and so they don’t.

The choice between “optimism” and “sacrifice” is false, it is juvenile, and it does our nation great harm. But the temptation for our leaders to make that choice—false, juvenile, and harmful as it–proves simply irresistible. Why? Because we—the electorate—reward the false choice time after time. And so shared sacrifice is almost never on the table.

Hasn’t the time come to throw the switch on this third rail—to shut off the political deadliness of the notion of shared sacrifice? To have an adult conversation about the fact that tax cuts, wars, universal health care, investment in energy independence, $150 billion in short term stimulus to avoid recession: they simply can’t co-exist without borrowing from our progeny. Until we as a nation face the prospect of shared sacrifice, the biggest gift we will give our children is righteousness to match their indignation. Because without shared sacrifice, we just can’t show them the empathy our ancestors showed to us.

After months of not including any numbers from the states, the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee met over the past few days and determined that both states would seat delegates with only half a vote each. Florida’s results would stand, with Clinton now getting 52.5 pledged delegates and Obama 33.5. Michigan, the most ridiculous of the cases the DNC had to deal with, would seat delegates split 69 for Clinton, 59 for Obama.

Florida is absurd in its own right. Obama refused to campaign there once the state was ruled out, while Clinton tried to make overtures to the electorate leading up to the state’s primary election. And, when it was originally ruled out of the race, and even the day before it voted, all candidates agreed that it was the right decision. Once Clinton won, and then when she fell impossible-to-recover behind, she started whinging and crying and demanding (as if she had any clout in the DNC0 that Florida should be counted. The same to with Michigan.

I said that Michigan was the most ridiculous case for a good reason. Neither Obama, nor Edwards, had their name on the ballots. But one candidate did - Clinton. She left her name on there in spite of the DNC telling her to get it off, and that the state wouldn’t count. Talk about a shady, doggish move. And then, when she started demanding Florida get reinstated, she did the same with Michigan.

I don’t think I can possibly describe how much I despise and loathe this woman right now. I’ve disliked her since last year, then hated her once she started attacking Obama, the DNC, and anyone who even thought she might not be the best option. But now, after her incessant and over-the-top tantrums, cries, whining … argh! I’m running out of descriptions for a 5 year old chucking a fit in a supermarket because it doesn’t get the lollies … after it all, I just loathe her now. It’s not that the states shouldn’t be seated - they should. It’s important to the election. It’s that she actually had the audacity to actually demand that a state be seated with full voting rights that didn’t even have the party nominee’s (Obama) name one it!?!? Are you serious woman, or just waaaaaay out of your mind!? I just hate you so much for even suggesting this, much less demanding it!!! ARGH!!!

…

Anyway, at the end of the day, Clinton has a nett gain of 24 delegates - the most she has got in a day, week, or month. Heck, even in a year! That’s how pathetic she and her campaign has been; she had to rely on the DNC Rules and Bylaw comittee to nett her the most delegates in a day. Pathetic.

The required number for Obama to get to to be the official nominee is 2118, not 2025. He is now 66 behind. Clinton is 241.5 away. I wonder who will win!? Psh.

Expect this: Puerto Rico votes Sunday - Clinton wins and netts ~11 delegates on Obama (60%/40%, 33 delegates to 22 delegates). Montana (60%/40%, 9 delegates to 7 delegates) and South Dakota (60%/40%, 9 delegates to 6 delegates) vote on Tuesday - Obama netts ~5 delegates on Clinton. From now to Monday, a trickle of 2-4 superdelegates will back Obama. Tuesday and Wednesday, 30+ will endorse Obama, putting him over the line of 2118, and will be the presumptive nominee at the conclusion of this long primary race.

Thomas.

Selama 3 hari libur kerjaan gw cuma ngenet, msn-an, ngerjain pr matematika, makan, tidur, sama nonton tv. Karena udah bosen sama rutinitas yang itu-itu aja akhirnya gw memutuskan buat membaca majalah HAI yang terbit Senin, 12 Mei 2008 kemaren (sebenernya udah mau baca dari hari Senin, tapi lupa). Ada salah satu artikel yang isinya begini:

2025, Jakarta Tenggelam

SEBUAH STUDI DARI WORLD BANK MENGELUARKAN HASIL PENELITIANNYA TENTANG IBU KOTA TERCINTA, JAKARTA.ADA TAHUN 6 DESEMBER, SEBAGIAN KOTA INI AKAN TERTUTUP OLEH AIR LAUT.

Serem? Pastilah. Tapi menurut World Bank, itu pasti akan terjadi kalo tak ada usaha pencegahan yang sistematis. Kawasan-kawasan pesisir seperti Jakarta Utara dan Tangerang bagian utara udah pasti jadi kawasan terjangan air laut.

Tapi walaupun nggak semuanya terendam, 12 juta warga Jakarta ikutan terancam. Karena ini menyangkut kualitas air tanah di kawasan pedalaman.

Para ahli malah udah memperkirakan tanggal terjadinya peristiwa itu. Perhitungan ini didasarkan oleh siklus astronomi 18,6 tahun yang mengakibatkan air laut naik dan menenggelamkan kawasan yang bertanah rendah di Indonesia.

Perubahan iklim emang yang jadi pemicu naiknya air laut. Tapi penyebab Jakarta tenggelam justru nggak melulu karena itu. Tapi lebihi karena permukaan tanah di Jakarta ikutan turun gara-gara pembangunan yang tak terkontrol.

” Malah penyebab utamanya adalah soal permukaan Jakarta yang kian menurun,” ujar Jaan Brinkman, insinyur asal Belanda yang bekerja dalam penelitian ini.

Dia bisa bilang begitu, karena menurut hasil penelitiannya air laut hanya naik sekitar 5 cm karena perubahan iklim. Harusnya sih nggak begitu mengkhawatirkan. Tapi hasil penelitian itu juga menunjukkan kalo permukaan tanah di Jakarta juga turun sekitar 40 cm sampai 60 cm. Jreeeeng!

Di tahun 2025 nanti, air laut akan luber sampai 5 km ke arah pedalaman. Artinya, Monas dan Istana Negara bisa kena dampaknya tuh! Dan Dufan di Ancol udah pasti cuma jadi “wisata bawah laut” aja.

Tinggal kesadaran warganya aja nih sekarang. Mau ngeliat Jakarta under water apa nggak? (yogi)

dikutip dari Majalah Hai No. 19/12-18 Mei 2008 th XXXII

Walaupun gw tinggal di daerah Bekasi yang notabennya jauh dari Jakarta Utara, tapi tetep aja gw ngerasa prihatin ngebaca berita ini. Udah akhir-akhir ini banyak kita denger berita tentang Global Warming sekarang muncul lagi masalah Turunnya Permukaan Tanah. Padahal masalah Global Warming aja belom selesai ditanganin. Penebangan liar masih ada dimana-mana, polusi udara masih banyak di jalan raya.

Ayo dong sayangi bumi kita dari sekarang. KALO BUKAN KITA SIAPA LAGI?

Yıl 2025, kızım 18, ben 47 yaşındayım…

‘Baba bizim bayrağımızda sizin zamanınızda Ay-yıldız varmış neden şimdi haç işareti ve anlamını bilmediğim renkler var?

2 arkadaş okulda tavan arasında eski bir atlas bulmuştuk, o atlasta gördük daha önce Edirne’den Kars’a kadar Türkiye toprağı imiş, şimdi neden o haritanın 1/5′ine Türkiye diyoruz?

Eskiden her mahallede 1–2 cami varken, şimdi neden her ilde bir cami var, dedem bahsetmişti daha önce ezan denen bir şey varmış, günde 5 defa camilerden okunurmuş şimdi bu çan sesleri ne baba?

Filistinlilerin zamanında topraklarını parça parça satarak İsrail’in kurulmasına sebep olduklarını hiç mi bir yerde okumadınız da, topraklarımızı sattırıp şimdi bu ufacık alana bizi hapsettiniz.Siz atalarınızdan böyle mi aldınız bu toprakları, emaneti böyle mi korudunuz. Günden güne topraklarımız satılırken siz uyuyor muydunuz baba?

Baba küçükken herkesin beni Ayşegül diye çağırdığını hatırlar gibiyim şimdi neden bana Angel diyorlar, benim kulağıma Angel ismini ezanla sen mi söyledin?

Bizim evin önünden tanklarla geçen Amerikan askerleri kim baba? Her gün bize hakaret ederek ve sizi her gördükleri yerde coplayarak demokrasi mi getirdiler baba? Bize okulda demokrasinin tanımını daha farklı öğretiler sanki

Elime geçen gün bir kitap geçti baba, senin gençliğinden kalan. Biz Ankara’ya taşınmazdan önce memleketimizin ismi Gaziantep’miş ve 6317 şehit vererek ‘Gazi’ lik ünvanını kazanmış. Neden şimdi oraya kürdistan diyorlar baba. Baba hani sizlere kürtlerle Türkler kardeştir ! demişler, peki kardeşlerim neden bizi öldürüp ülkemizde ayrı devlet kurdular.

Baba o kitapta Atatürk diye birinden de bahsetmişti. O her kimse 1933′te Bursa’da bir nutuk vermiş, ben şimdi bile ne kastettiğini anlayabiliyorken, sizin gençliğiniz bu kadar mı cahildi de o uyar! ıları dikkate almadınız.

Şimdiki kürdistan toprağında yer alan Süleymaniye’de askerimizin başına çuval geçirmişler ve sen o dönemde gençtin, hiç mi kanın donmadı baba. Neden hesap sormadınız bunları görmezden gelen yöneticilerinize?

O az önce bahsettiğim Atatürk size bir hitabe yazmış ve sizi hain yöneticilere ve uşaklara karşı uyarmış ve hitabenin sonunda da ‘Muhtaç olduğun kudret damarlarındaki asil kanda mevcuttur.’ demiş. Baba kanınız o kadar bozuk mu ki ülkemizi bu hale getirenlerin yakasına yapışmadınız!

Baba Türkiyeli ne demek, biz Türk çocuğu değil miyiz, soyumuz belli değil mi bizim, o kitapta okumuştum ‘Ne mutlu Türküm diyene’ yazıyordu. Peki, baba ben neden mutlu değilim. Türküm demek suçsa ve kötü bir şeyse siz eskiden neden söylerdiniz.

Baba biz Kurtuluş Savaşı denen bir şey yaşamışız, kitaba göre dünyanın gördüğü en şanlı savaşmış ve o savaşta 4 milyon şehit vermişiz. Madem bu vatandan bu kadar kolay vazgeçecektiniz de neden o kadar şehit verdiniz.

Hiç mi kitap okumadınız, hiç mi sizi uyaran olmadı, hiç mi göremediniz ülkemizin peşkeş çekildiğini, eğer farkında olduysanız ve duygusuzca evinizde oturduysanız sizin o hainlerden ne farkınız kaldı. Allah’ın huzuruna hangi yüzle çıkacaksınız baba. ‘Vatan sevgisi imandandır’ diye bir hadis varken hadi diyelim ki Türklüğünüzden vazgeçtiniz bari İslam’ın emrine uysaydınız.

Senin eski CD’lerden dinledim baba, bizim de bir İstiklal Marşı’mız varmış, o marşı yanlızca körü körüne ezberlediniz mi? Atalarımız sizi her fırsatta uyarmış, demiş ki ‘Ey Türk titre ve kendine dön.’ Baba ne zaman titreyeceksiniz, Ankara’yı da kaybettikten sonra mı? Bundan 13 yıl önce titremediyseniz eğer artık hiç bir şey titretemez sizi.

Baba sen son bağımsız olan Türkiye Cumhuriyetini gördün. ‘Ya devlet başa, ya kuzgun leşe’ diyebilecek bir Hasan Tahsin, bir Şehit Şahin, bir Sütçü İmam yok muydu aranızda? Yazıklar olsun baba sizin gençliğinize!

Bu günleri göreceğime hiç doğmasaydım baba. Türklüğünüzden utanmadınız hiç olmazsa insanlığınızdan utansaydınız baba. Bu vatan göz göre göre altınızdan kayarken hiç olmazsa ŞEREFİNİZLE ÖLEMEDİNİZ Mİ?’

HER GÜNÜM CENAZE, HER GÜNÜM ŞEHİT
BUNLARIN SEBEBİ BİR İT OĞLU İT
UYAN TÜRK EVLADI UYUMA UYAN
OTUZ KUPONA ALINMADI BU VATAN

Alintidir.

Recommendation Sheet - Under Review by TAC

PDF of characteristics map (for printing)

Focus Area Characteristics: Both the Performance Standards approach and the Zoning Density approach set nutrient targets that vary across the Upper Neuse according to whether they are located in Management Area 1 or 2.

Note: Click on map to zoom in

Recommendation Sheet - Complete

PDF of characteristics map (for printing)

Focus Area Characteristics: Conservation areas identified in the Upper Neuse Watershed Management Plan (WSWS-II and WSWS-III) that are under development pressure.

Note: Click on map to zoom in

Recommendation Sheet - Coming Soon

PDF of characteristics map (for printing)

Focus Area Characteristics

Note: Click on map to zoom in