Minnesota is apparently holding firm at a 206 vote lead for Coleman going into the recount.  No one seems to have any special insight into how that one’s going to end up after the recount, although the most common thinking I’ve seen says that recounts benefit Democrats because they catch correctable errors by first-time voters and such.

Gonna be an insane runoff election in Georgia.  Many millions of dollars to be spent.  I think one of the big questions here is whether President-elect Obama is going to risk some political capital campaigning for Martin.  He could make a difference but if he goes all out and Martin ends up losing, it could make him look ineffective heading into his first days in office.  Pretty big risk, and I’d expect him to play it safe here.  With a long, bold agenda destined to provoke some political battles, he simply cannot afford to take any risks between now and his first day in office.  He needs to ride a tidal wave of good news into the inauguration that strengthens his political capital more than he needs Martin in the Senate.

And finally, Begich has overtaken Stevens in Alaska as votes have continued to be counted, and all remaining uncounted ballots are said to be in Begich-friendly areas.  He’s now heavily favored to pull it out.  Good effing riddance, convict Stevens.  I can’t believe the people of Alaska came so close to re-electing a convicted felon.  That certainly helps explain Palin’s popularity there.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Contact: Wesley Denton, (202) 470-3503

Alexandria, VA - November 5, 2008 - Senate Conservatives Fund (SCF) Chairman, U.S. Senator Jim DeMint (R-South Carolina), made the following statement Wednesday regarding the outcome of the 2008 U.S. Senate elections.

Time for Conservative Leadership

“Republicans in the Senate suffered major losses last night because they failed to stand up for conservative principles over the last two years. Rather than opposing the big government policies promoted by congressional Democrats and President Bush, many Republicans chose to play it safe, blend in, and compromise again and again. Rather than working together to create a compelling message based on conservative principles, Republicans backed a trillion dollar bailout and continued to support wasteful earmark spending. This strategy is exactly what cost Republicans control of Congress in 2006 and now it has forced the GOP deep into the political wilderness.

“Republicans have now lost 14 Senate seats in just two years, which is completely unacceptable. The time for excuses is over. Millions of conservative, freedom-loving Americans do not want their representatives in Washington to be a permanent minority. We need more conservative leaders in the Senate who will boldly stand up for our security, our economic freedom, and our values. We need more conservative leaders who will do everything in their power to stop President-elect Obama and the Democrats in Congress from taking away our freedom with socialist policies. We need more leaders who will put the interests of the American people ahead of their own political careers.

“Senate Conservatives Fund is dedicated to rebuilding principled leadership in the Senate and it will continue to support only the most rock-solid conservative Senate candidates nationwide.

SCF Scores 3 Wins, 2 Losses

“I want to congratulate Senator Jeff Sessions in Alabama, Senator John Cornyn in Texas, and Lieutenant Governor Jim Risch in Idaho on their victories tonight. They are strong conservatives who will strengthen the United States Senate, and I’m glad Senate Conservatives Fund was able to play a part in helping get them elected.

“I also want to extend my regrets to former Congressman Bob Schaffer in Colorado and Congressman Steve Pearce in New Mexico. They both ran principled campaigns and I hope we see more of them in the future.”

“Finally, I want to thank all those who supported Senate Conservatives Fund this year. They helped elect several great Senate candidates who I know will make them very proud in the years to come.”

Has anyone publicly called him Saxby Shameless?

Inquiring minds want to know.

A Huff Poster writes:

If Rice is to beat Inhofe, he has to match Inhofe’s TV time in the final 12 days. The campaign’s final TV buy is tomorrow morning and they desperately need another $15,000. A contribution of any size will help. Oklahoma is a relatively inexpensive market — a spot on an Andy Griffith rerun only costs $15. Time on The View sells for $130 per 30 seconds. They can even advertise on the Today Show for only $250.

CLICK HERE NOW TO HELP ANDREW BEAT INHOFE!

(I do some work for the Rice campaign.)

If you read this blog and you’ve never read Al Franken’s “Lies and the Lying Liars Who Tell Them” you might as well turn off the computer and go to bed.  Because, back when it was positively terrifying to be a liberal in George W. Bush’s America, Mr. Franken got many of us through the long and red-tinted days.

I remember reading the book on the floor of the airport in Fort Lauderdale, waiting for my friends to arrive on different flights.  I was so nervous that someone would see me reading a book bashing Republicans that I took the cover off and hid it in my bag.

Anyway, how about Al Franken?  He’s running for Senate in Minnesota, if you didn’t already know.  He’s hit some road blocks, because Norm Coleman (the one-term Republican incumbent) pretty successfully painted Franken as a hilarious man, who once wrote a pseudo-raunchy piece for Playboy.  Which Franken is, and did.  But he is also very bright and quite serious.

Coleman used to be a Democrat, and was mayor of Minneapolis St. Paul* as such, until 1996, when he changed his stripes.  Even so, Coleman’s moderateness combined with Franken’s jokesy, folksy, Saturday Night Live record, seemed enough for him to keep his seat.

Not so fast, according to Time.  At the very moment the tide seemed to turn for down ticket Democrats, when Obama looked presidential during the financial crisis and McCain looked like a dunce, Coleman ran an ad that showed Franken telling some sort of story, but muted, with a voice over critizing Franken for being outrageously angry.

The problem: the muted video used in the NRSC ads was actually taken from a heartwarming, funny story Franken told, and acted out, about David Wellstone and his father Paul, who was killed in a plane crash in 2002 and whose Senate seat Coleman now holds. David, on at least one occasion, was sitting nearby, smiling as Franken acted out the part of his father excitedly urging him on during a cross country race. Handed a gift, Franken’s campaign produced an ad of their own showing how his image had been grossly distorted on Coleman’s behalf — not merely an injustice to Franken, but an insult to Wellstone’s memory. “Minnesotans,” read the tagline, “deserve better.” “At the minimum, it was a very effective ad,” Kathryn Pearson, a political science professor at the University of Minnesota, says of the Franken riposte.

Now the race is looking tighter, but many Minnesota voters are upset with the negative tone of the campaign and are threatening to vote for the third party candidate.  Who knows.  Those Minnesotans are crazy!

*Update: Thanks to Louis, in comments, who corrected me. Coleman was mayor of St. Paul, not Minneapolis.

With 23 days to go and McCain looking like an electoral dead man walking, how long before GOP luminaries and pundits like Kathleen Parker, Peggy Noonan or Newt Gingrich start calling on the Republican National Committee to spend its remaining cash on Congressional races?

Think about it: Palin is doing a two-day bus tour through West Virginia - a state Obama wrote off during the primary campaign.  A Republican candidate in red Nebraska is touting Obama over McCain. There’s loud grumbling from GOP stalwarts across the country that it’s too late for a comeback.  The Ayers attacks haven’t worked and McCain is fumbling around for a strategy for the closing weeks.

Throw in the fact that the GOP’s congressional campaign committees are at a cash disadvantage while Democratic candidates are growing stronger by the day as talk of a filibuster-proof Senate gets louder and it’s only a matter of time before one of the right-wing glitterati writes a column or tells Sean Hannity that the RNC ought to dump its McCain stock and put its money into the congressional races.

It would be stunning if the RNC actually did it — Drudge would have to invent a new version of the siren…  If I were a reporter, I’d call around to as many prominent Republicans as possible and ask them if they think the RNC should spend its money on McCain or the House and Senate races with 23 days to go.

From today’s Roll Call newspaper:

As America’s deepening financial crisis dominated news headlines throughout September, several polls over the past two weeks appear to indicate Republican incumbents are losing ground in a few key Senate contests.

The challengers in those races have long been running against Republican economic policies on Capitol Hill, but Democratic operatives said this week that the seemingly daily news stories about new economic disasters have served to direct voter attention to the issue in a way that no amount of campaigning could.

“What’s happened here is that the crisis in the short term has focused voters’ attention on how we got here, and how we got here are failed Republican policies,” argued Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesman Matthew Miller on Tuesday. The recent polling numbers show that “Republican incumbents who voted with [President] Bush and overwhelmingly endorsed his economic policies, which have now clearly failed, are paying the consequences for that.”

Charlie Cook is bullish on Democratic prospects.  The Rothenberg Report is too.  Make these predictions reality by donating here.

McConnell has a race on his hands.

Dole is hardly ever in North Carolina.

I might as well point out another race, this one for Georgia’s U.S. Senate seat currently held by Saxby Chambliss (R).

Chambliss won the seat in 2002, running against incumbent Max Cleland. Cleland is a triple amputee from his time serving in the Vietnam War; he lost his limbs when a grenade went off in close-proximity. Back in 2002, Republicans were running on the jingoist/patriotism platform, and sadly Chambliss was able to exploit this for his victory. He ran ads in Georgia that painted Cleland as unpatriotic by virtue of his being a member of the Democratic Party — how this worked, I’m not sure. I was living in Georgia at the time, and was lucky (or unlucky) enough to be at the Georgia Democratic Victory Defeat Party in Downtown Atlanta, where I saw Cleland. Let’s just say it was a sad night.

In any case, Chambliss has bizarrely high approval ratings among Georgians now, and does not seem especially susceptible to the general-Republican malaise taking place in most Senate races. His opponent, Jim Martin, is a long time member of Georgia politics. He is also, somewhat ironically, a Vietnam vet. I don’t know a whole lot about Martin, and since I’ve moved from Georgia I haven’t followed Chambliss particularly closely. I am eager, however, to see Chambliss booted out.

Here are the latest polls for the 2008 U.S. Senate races. For more polls and averages, visit Real Clear Politics.

• North Carolina: Dole (R) +8.0 [Research 2000, August 1]
• Alaska: Begich (D) +13.0 [Rasmussen, July 31]
• Kentucky: McConnell (R) +10.0 [Rasmussen, July 31]
• Idaho: Risch (R) +10.0 [Research 2000, July 31]
• Mississippi - Special: Wicker (R) +9.0 [Rasmussen, July 30]
• Nebraska: Johanns (R) +26.0 [Rasmussen, July 30]
• Michigan: Levin (D) +19.0 [PPP (D), July 30]
• North Carolina: Dole (R) +9.0 [PPP (D), July 29]
• Mississippi - Special: Wicker (R) +1.0 [Research 2000, July 28]
• New Jersey: Lautenberg (D) +8.0 [Monmouth/Gannett, July 25]
• Minnesota: Coleman (R) +15.0 [Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP.com, July 24]
• Colorado: Udall (D) 44 - Schaffer (R) 44 - Tie [Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP.com, July 24]

• The Greatest Scandal
  When it comes to public schools, Barack Obama does not support hope, change, and choice. Wall Street Journal
• ‘Big Oil’ label turns in candidate’s favor
  Two polls show Bob Schaffer, the Colorado Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate, has erased a double-digit deficit and pulled within a nose of Democratic foe Mark Udall. The reason, according to one poll, lies in fuel prices. Washington Times

Here are the latest polls for the 2008 U.S. Senate races. For more polls and averages, visit Real Clear Politics.

• Minnesota: Franken (D) +3.0 [Rasmussen, July 23]
• Virginia: Warner (D) +25.0 [PPP (D), July 23]
• New Hampshire: Shaheen (D) +4.0 [University of NH, July 23]
• Colorado: Udall (D) +3.0 [Rasmussen, July 22]
• Alaska: Begich (D) +8.0 [Rasmussen, July 21]
• Georgia: Chambliss (R) +30.0 [Rasmussen, July 21]
• Maine: Collins (R) +10.0 [Rasmussen, July 18]
• New Jersey: Lautenberg (D) +16.0 [Strategic Vision (R), July 18]
• North Carolina: Dole (R) +11.0 [Rasmussen, July 17]
• Oregon: Smith (R) 46, Merkley (D) 46 - Tie [Rasmussen, July 16]
• Kansas: Roberts (R) +28.0 [Rasmussen, July 16]
• South Dakota: Johnson +22.0 [Rasmussen, July 16]

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Thursday, July 24, 2008

SCF Endorses Bob Schaffer for U.S. Senate in Colorado

Alexandria, VA - July 24, 2008 - Today, Senate Conservatives Fund (SCF) endorsed former Republican Congressman Bob Schaffer for U.S. Senate in Colorado.

“Bob Schaffer is a true, common sense conservative,” said U.S. Senator Jim DeMint (R-South Carolina), the chairman of SCF. “He believes in a strong national defense, limited government, and traditional family values. He has a proven record of fighting for American taxpayers and standing up for the nation he loves.”

During his three terms in Congress from 1997-2002, Schaffer earned a 99 percent Lifetime Rating with the American Conservative Union. His average National Taxpayers’ Union ranking was 13th in the entire House, and he received the fourth highest score on two separate occasions. Schaffer’s voting record was nothing short of impressive. He has voted to:

• Repeal the death tax;
• Reform welfare;
• Allow parents to have school choices;
• Stop the raid on Social Security;
• Lower taxes for all Americans;
• Ban partial birth abortion; and
• Expand America’s domestic energy supply.

.
Schaffer scores highly on each of the 10 conservative policy goals identified by SCF, but his leadership on three policies in particular stand out:

• Promote energy security: Schaffer supports an “all of the above” policy to solving our nation’s energy crisis, including oil and gas exploration, expanded refining capacity, and additional nuclear facilities. He supports allowing the refinement of oil shale in the West, which would produce at least 800 billion barrels of oil.
• Eliminate wasteful spending and keep taxes low: Schaffer opposes wasteful earmarks, supports a constitutional amendment to balance the federal budget, and will fight to reform entitlement programs that will otherwise bankrupt our nation.
• Give parents more school choices: Schaffer is determined to save American children from our failing public educational system. He will fight to break the unholy alliance of liberal politicians and teachers unions, which has helped institutionalize mediocrity and failed children across the country.

.
“I’m confident Bob Schaffer will make Colorado proud and be a hero in the Senate for all Americans,” said DeMint. “I worked with him in the House of Representatives and saw him stand up to Republican leadership when they were wrong. We need that kind of courage in the Senate.

“This election in Colorado may be the most important race in the country for conservatives. The Senate is the backstop for the liberal Democrat agenda, and we must win this race.”

NEW VIDEO: DeMint Announces Bob Schaffer Endorsement

###

PAID FOR BY SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND PAC AND NOT AUTHORIZED BY ANY CANDIDATE OR CANDIDATE’S COMMITTEE. WWW.SENATECONSERVATIVES.COM

It looks like some Republicans in the Senate have just given up, as Politico reports that the Senate GOP leadership has stopped counting votes on important bills. As Amanda Carpenter at Townhall puts it, “No wonder why we’re demoralized. This will make you sick.”

On at least four votes over the past month — Medicare, housing, the GI Bill and the Farm Bill — Republican leaders haven’t even bothered whipping members to toe the party line or back President Bush’s veto threats. Instead, a GOP leadership aide says leaders have told vulnerable senators that it’s all right to “get well” with voters by siding with Democrats on anything but energy and national security.

It’s unusual for rank-and-file members to get a green light to blow off their party leaders. But these are unusual times for Republicans. They are genuinely worried they could get their clocks cleaned in November. The prevailing attitude: It is better to lose some big votes now than big races in November.

This helps explain why so many Senate Republicans are taking flight from President Bush and their own leaders — and doing it loudly and proudly.

This makes it clear that too many Republicans are worried more about their next election, instead of the next generation and what is right for America. One more reason why we need to elect bold conservative leaders to the U.S. Senate, now more than ever.

Robert Novak reports today that the Lincoln Club of Orange County is threatening to pull its financial support for Republicans in the House and Senate if they do not replace their leaders:

The message: “Come Nov. 5, should the current GOP leadership in either house survive to lead in a new Congress, the Lincoln Club of Orange County will review the financial backing of all congressional Republicans, and we urge others to do likewise. A GOP caucus that would re-elect such leaders is not one we would likely continue to support. Because, simply put, we refuse to support a permanent minority.”

The Lincoln Club estimates that its nearly 300 members will together contribute $1.5 million to federal causes and candidates in the 2008 election cycle. The club is spreading its message to angry Republicans throughout California and around the nation. The ultimatum finds responsive members of the House (if not the Senate), who even now are preparing a housecleaning after the additional loss of seats in this year’s election.

These California activists are encouraging other conservatives nationwide to join their cause:

“We urge other Republican donor groups to reinforce this important beginning,” read the club’s ultimatum. It went on: “It is not credible to ask the American people to return Republicans to the majority when all we offer them is the same group of leaders and policies they so recently rejected.”

The full ultimatum is here.

Here are the latest polls for some of the 2008 U.S. Senate races. For more polls and averages, visit Real Clear Politics.

• Massachusetts: Kerry (D) +31.0 [Rasmussen]
• North Carolina: Dole (R) +14.0 [PPP]
• Louisiana: Landrieu (D) +6.0 [Southern Media & Opinion Research]
• Alabama: Sessions (R) +24.0 [Rasmussen]

It probably comes as no surprise that many of the liberals who routinely attack ‘Big Oil’ also profit from investments in those oil companies. The Hill has the story:

Sen. John Kerry (Mass.), the 2004 Democratic nominee, has blasted his colleague John McCain (Ariz.), the expected Republican presidential candidate, in recent days for pursuing policies that he says benefit the oil industry.

When Kerry ran for president four years ago, he criticized President Bush’s “energy policy of Big Oil, by Big Oil, and for Big Oil.”

Kerry has tens of thousands of dollars invested in those same companies, but an aide to the senator said the investment is held in trust and Kerry has no control over it.

Kerry’s financial disclosure reports show two investments in Exxon Mobil worth between $65,000 and $150,000 combined. He also showed a stake in BP worth between $15,000 and $50,000.

Obviously the “held in trust” defense doesn’t fly. Nobody forced Sen. Kerry to put his investments in trust. If he really hates oil companies, he should take the money out of the trust and invest it differently. But don’t hold your breath.

Here are the latest polls for some of the top U.S. Senate races. For more polls and averages, visit Real Clear Politics.

• Georgia: Chambliss +27.0 [Rasmussen, June 29]
• Kentucky: McConnell +7.0 [Rasmussen, June 27]
• Mississippi - Special: Wicker (R) +1.0 [Rasmussen, June 26]
• Mississippi: Cochran (R) +27.0 [Rasmussen, June 26]
• New Jersey: Lautenberg (D) +17.0 [Fairleigh Dickinson, June 26]
• Nebraska: Johanns (R) +27.0 [Rasmussen]
• Michigan: Levin (D) +22.0 [PPP, June 24]
• New Mexico: Udall (D) +28.0 [Rasmussen, June 24]

RedState covers the video used to introduce Sen. John Cornyn at the Texas GOP convention. It’s a little corny, but still entertaining. Of course, latte-drinking liberals don’t get it and are now desperately trying to turn this into a Dukakis moment. But it won’t work. Unlike Barack Obama and John Kerry, Big John is the real thing.

Here are the latest polls for some of the top U.S. Senate races. For more polls and averages, visit Real Clear Politics.

• New Hampshire: Shaheen (D) +14.0 [Rasmussen, June 20]
• Colorado: Udall (D) +9.0 [Rasmussen, June 19]
• Kentucky: McConnell (R) +11.0 [VC Research, June 19]
• Maine: Collins (R) +7.0 [Rasmussen, June 18]
• Virginia: Warner (D) +31.0 [PPP, June 18]
• New Hampshire: Shaheen (D) +14.0 [ARG, June 18]
• Alaska: Stevens (R) +2.0 [Rasmussen, June 17]
• Virginia: Warner (D) +27.0 (Rasmussen, June 16)

Here are the latest U.S. Senate polls from Real Clear Politics.

• Georgia: Chambliss (R) +23.0 (June 10)
• New Jersey: Lautenberg (D) +1.0 (June 9)
• Texas: Cornyn (R) +17.0 (June 9)
• Kansas: Roberts (R) +12.0 (June 05)
• North Carolina: Dole (R) +8.0 (June 02)
• Louisiana: Landrieu (D) +3.0 (June 01)
• Massachusetts: Kerry (D) +38.0 (June 01)
• Mississippi - Special: Musgrove (D) +1.0 (May 29)
• Alabama: Sessions (R) +33.0 (May 29)
• Mississippi: Cochran (R) +23.0 (May 29
• Minnesota: Coleman (R) +2.0 (May 27)
• Nebraska: Johanns (R) +27.0 (May 24)
• New Hampshire: Shaheen +7.0 (May 23)
• Colorado: Udall (D) +6.0 (May 21)
• New Mexico: Udall (D) +16.0 (May 17)

Yesterday, the in the New Mexico GOP primary, Rep. Steve Pearce narrowly defeated Rep. Heather Wilson for the right to challenge Democratic Rep. Tom Udall for the Senate seat being vacated by GOP Senator Pete Domenici.

Democrats have placed a heavy emphasis on Udall’s campaign as they believe that they can pick up this seat, adding to their majority in the Senate.

Former Virginia Governor Mark Warner, a centrist Democrat, is up and running with his first television ad of his 2008 senate campaign.