I say "chance" because it really all depends on which version of Miguel Tejada shows up to play at Minute Maid this year. Will it be some variation of the MVP Tejada, or will it be the Miguel who's been declining the past several years while rotting away in Baltimore? Baseball Prospectus has him going for 16 homers and 75 RBI's at a .296 clip, so he's a gigantic improvement over Adam Everett. But then again, I could probably step up to the plate right now and be an improvement over Adam Everett's black hole of a bat, despite not swinging a stick in roughly ten years or so.

If nothing else, Tejada will provide some extra fire to the heart of a lineup that was already pretty good. Pitchers are going to get tired while trying to navigate the Pence-Berkman-Lee-Tejada portion of the lineup, and if all four of those guys are on the top of their game it gives the Astros a four-man heart that should be able to score as many runs as any other team in the league.

Michael Bourn will be your leadoff hitter, and from the limited amounts I've seen him play in spring training it seems like Ed Wade made the right decision in trading Brad Lidge for Bourn. Granted, trading Lidge was a no-brainer, but the entire goal of making deals in major league baseball is to get as much as you can while giving up as little as you can. From early appearances, it seems like the Astros may have done just that. Bourn is lightning fast and gives the Astros the kind of speed at the top of their lineup that Houston fans haven't seen in a long time.

Hunter Pence was originally slated to bat 6th in the order, but the unfortunate (and nasty) injury to free agent newcomer Kaz Matsui's hindquarters prompted Cecil Cooper to bat Pence 2nd in the lineup. This is the kind of move that just makes sense, as Pence may just be the 2nd best hitter on the entire squad, and it seems pointless to have him wasting away in the 6 hole just because Matsui may have an edge in the speed department (which I don't think he does, anyway). BP has Pence projected at 23 homers, 80 RBI's, 13 stolen bases and a .286 batting average; I'm going to go on record in saying that I think Pence will somewhere between 26-30 homers, drive in 110 runs, and hit around .330. He's the future of this franchise.

I think Ty Wigginton is the dark horse of this Astros lineup. No one seems to talk about the guy when talking about potential Astros stars, but I think he's got what it takes to be a real producer. A top of the line PECOTA (the Baseball Prospectus projection system) has him hitting 26 homers, driving in 88 runs and hitting .303, and I think that's entirely attainable. He'll be hitting behind Matsui and Kaz is a fast dude, plus he'll potentially have Lee and Tejada batting in the same inning, which should lead to plenty of RBI chances. The guy is 6 feet tall and 225 pounds, and he's got some pop in his bat. PECOTA also lists him at a 15% breakout rate, which is low, but at a 37% Improve rate, which is promising. It remains to be seen if he'll actually live up to the potential I see in him, but to me he's a big key in whether or not the Astros will remain in the doghouse or surprise everyone and become a contender this year.

I targeted JR Towles in my fantasy draft this year for one reason: he's a good, undervalued hitter. Towles is taking over the every day catcher spot from one of the most beloved Astros of the 00's in Brad Ausmus, and he showed a ton of potential in his brief call-up last year from the minors. In 40 AB's last year, Towles scored 15 hits and 12 RBI's with a batting average of .375. Granted, it was just 40 at bats, but even in that small sample size, you could see the potential he has to be a true hitting catcher, which is a rarity in baseball. In fact, I had him rated as the third best catcher in baseball this year behind Russell Martin and Victor Martinez. There's no way of knowing he'll live up to the lofty expectations that are on him, but I do believe he'll be a contender for rookie of the year come October. Brad Ausmus will likely see about 20% playing time behind the plate, and I don't even really feel like evaluating Ausmus as a hitter, because he's terrible.

Kat Matsui...I don't really know what to say about the guy. He's a good hitter, when he's on. But he's so wildly inconsistent that I still find it hard to believe that the Astros gave him 4 million a year as a free agent. PECOTA has him at 4 homers, 27 RBI's, 15 stolen bases and a .259 batting average. His VORP is just 5.6, which would put him around the lower end of all major league starters at 2nd. If Matsui ends up close those numbers, we'd have to consider him a bust, especially since he'll be hitting directly behind Lee and Tejada. Hopefully he'll get his rear issues sorted out and come back as a productive player, but I'm not optimistic. I would have spent the money on a reliever and kept Mark Loretta at 2nd, hitting 6th or 7th. I know Ed Wade values speed, but speed doesn't mean anything if you can't get on base.

As far as the bench goes, Jose Cruz Jr. had an extremely productive spring training and probably did enough to make the team. He hit almost .500, which was far and away the best average on the team, and also led the team in RBI's. He'll likely be the 4th or 5th outfielder, depending on how well he does in the final two exhibition games against the Tigers at Minute Maid (which I'll be attending, by the way). Mark Loretta is going to be a solid, if unspectacular backup for Matsui at 2nd and Tejada at short, and he'll probably continue to be a solid bench player. Darrin Erstad is an intriguing pickup to me, because he's been a superstar player in the past, so to have him backing up your outfielders is a very comforting thing. I don't even feel the need to talk about Geoff Blum right now, because I have a strong feeling he's going to be a non-factor this year.

All told, the Astros are going to have a much-improved offense this year. They've proved during spring training that they can score plenty of runs, and it's going to be rather exciting watching them bat this year. The bad part? Our pitching is as bad as our offense is good, and I'll preview that this weekend.